AH Challenge: Communist Iran

[MrHola]

Manipulate the events so that the 1979 Revolution ends up with a communist Iran rather the Islamic Republic of Iran. Does this butterfly the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan?

[Stonewall's Lightning]

Goodness Gracious.. I am not sure the Soviets would need to invade Afghanistan then.. If a communist Iran Happens in 79, how far would the Soviets Influence a former U.S Ally?

In this TL

1.. Soviets get an allied nation that has huge oil reserves vital to the Western economy.. How far does Iran go along with Moscow? But Oil prices and production just took a turn for the worst, atleast from the West's eyes. If the Communist really want to play with that idea.. Does Iran stay in Opec?

2. If the Iranian regime agrees in full, the Soviets could have a friendly naval base or bases in warm water, in the Persian Golf..
Does the U.S sit back and allow this? Does the Soviet Union put Nuclear weapons in Iran?

3. If the communist took over Iran somehow in 79, the Soviets would probably be stunned( in a good way).. What a turn of events.. Why invade Afghanistan now? No Islamic revolution to inspire those "silly" folks in Soviet Central Asia or in other Islamic border regions. Infact the opposite has happen, Iran is now a Communist state..

[whaleofashrimp]

wouldint alot of iranians be opposed to this? maybe we'll have afganistan in iran....and instead of an iran-iraq war.....the great pan-islamic crusade...involving all the gulf states (minus syria,lybia and algeria) which will probably turn into a worldwide soviet-islamic war , eventualy involving ato. and the result would be a very charred,very hostile thrid from the center radioactive rock

[strangeland]

Originally Posted by whaleofashrimp

wouldint alot of iranians be opposed to this? maybe we'll have afganistan in iran....and instead of an iran-iraq war.....the great pan-islamic crusade...involving all the gulf states (minus syria,lybia and algeria) which will probably turn into a worldwide soviet-islamic war , eventualy involving ato. and the result would be a very charred,very hostile thrid from the center radioactive rock

yes, the Islamists would definately take issue with a Communist government setting itself up in Tehran. How much support any sort of guerilla movement gets depends on how radical the Communists are and how unpopular they make themselves. I don't think it will spiral to quite the extent you depict, but I do think Saddam will still take the opportunity to invade Iran...with full US support, not reserved support like in OTL.

[Stonewall's Lightning]

Again, it all depends on how things unfold prior to the 79 communist revolution. Did many of the radical clerics get swept away by the Shah? Their would be some serious resistance to the Communist by many for certain. But Iran is a very rich target for the Soviets..

Also if Iraq under Saddam invades a Communist Iran in 80 or so, forget about Saddam getting all of those Soviets weapons shipments. Why would Saddam want to hurt his main military supplier? No Scuds, no T-55, no Migs etc.. So the U.S would have to help Iraq full fledge or I am not sure who will?

Saddam viewed the radical Islamic revolution in Iran as a threat to his power among many reason. With this gone why attack now? Would Saddam be that dumb to piss of the Soviets?

[strangeland]

Originally Posted by Stonewall's Lightning

Also if Iraq under Saddam invades a Communist Iran in 80 or so, forget about Saddam getting all of those Soviets weapons shipments. Why would Saddam want to hurt his main military supplier? No Scuds, no T-55, no Migs etc.. So the U.S would have to help Iraq full fledge or I am not sure who will?

Saddam viewed the radical Islamic revolution in Iran as a threat to his power among many reason. With this gone why attack now? Would Saddam be that dumb to piss of the Soviets?

the French gave Saddam their full-fledged support. China sold arms to both sides. If Communist Iran is Soviet-allied, there's a good chance China might give Iraq more overt support, though I'm not sure what that would entail beyond more cheap weapons.

[Keenir]

if memory serves, the Shah was more against the idea of Iran going Communist than Islamist...talk about strange bedfellows there.

but - also from memory - Tudeh (the Iranian communists) was small and not with a lot of internal backing.

....so who would Tudeh compromise with? the Islamists, in hopes of a communist-Islam? (which wouldn't be the first time it was attempted, mind)

Originally Posted by strangeland

China sold arms to both sides. If Communist Iran is Soviet-allied, there's a good chance China might give Iraq more overt support,

why? by this time, had they shucked any sembalance of all-communist-nations-must-stand-together ?

[Jape]

Originally Posted by Keenir

why? by this time, had they shucked any sembalance of all-communist-nations-must-stand-together ?

Indeed the Sino-Soviet split was well underway by 1980, despite it all being based on Russia's rejection of Stalinist extremity much to Mao horror, only for China to do one better after his death, while continuing the split.

This meant the Chinese particularly after Nixon's visit often found themselves siding with the USA against the Soviets when it came to backing Cold War groups:

Pakistan-China, India-Soviet
Khmer Rouge-China, Vietnam-Soviet
ZANU-China, ZAPU-Soviet

etc. etc.

A Communist Iran would do itself a favour and add nationalist/soft islamic elements (ala Arab Socialism), probably utilising the various minorities to keep a strong base of support

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

A communist regime in Tehran would last about 5 minutes before it was overthrown. There is no constituency for it.

[Hendryk]

Originally Posted by Abdul Hadi Pasha

There is no constituency for it.

Neither was there a constituency for it in Afghanistan.

[whaleofashrimp]

what about a very very light red iran...almost pink.....whoever was in control of iran wouldint be able to impliment a radical red agenda without either getting overthrown or turning his nation into a basket case....how about a red goverment who's "rednise" only extends (for the time being) to a few small social and economic reforms that the overwhelming majority are in favor of anyway, while forming colalitions and trying not to piss of the clercs TO MUCH.....otherwise what we'll have is a bloody meltdown a la afganistan either leading to ww3 or an early collapse of the soviets

[Ibn Warraq]

There were some Iranian intellectuals who liked the idea of a communist Iran and the Shah used the communist menace to justify alot of his tactics, but the only way any communist regime would last was if it was propped up by the Soviet Red Army. The Iranian masses would never support it.

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

Originally Posted by Hendryk

Neither was there a constituency for it in Afghanistan.

Yes, and how well did that work out?

[Hendryk]

Originally Posted by Abdul Hadi Pasha

Yes, and how well did that work out?

The Democratic Republic of Afghanistan lasted 14 years, not five minutes. And that's in a country much more backward than Iran, with a much smaller educated elite and no proletariat to speak of.

[CCA]

Originally Posted by Hendryk

The Democratic Republic of Afghanistan lasted 14 years, not five minutes. And that's in a country much more backward than Iran, with a much smaller educated elite and no proletariat to speak of.

Quoted for Truth.

[MrHola]

I'm not necessarily aiming for a communist Iran that lasts until the present day, it could fall down within a few years or so. How about Brezhnev deciding somewhere in the early 1970s to supply anti-Shah communist militia's with Soviet advisors and weapons?

[aktarian]

Originally Posted by Hendryk

The Democratic Republic of Afghanistan lasted 14 years, not five minutes. And that's in a country much more backward than Iran, with a much smaller educated elite and no proletariat to speak of.

during which time it faced armed resistance, had to rely on foreign power to keep insurgents at bay and when that power left faced it on it's own.

[Ibn Warraq]

Originally Posted by Hendryk

The Democratic Republic of Afghanistan lasted 14 years, not five minutes. And that's in a country much more backward than Iran, with a much smaller educated elite and no proletariat to speak of.

Yes, and it only lasted because it was propped up by the Red Army. Without the Soviet Union taking it over and making it into a puppet government it would have lasted longer than five minutes, but not much longer.


Edit: Also, you'd have to find a way for the Soviet Union to basically take over one of the largest oil-producing countries in the world without WWIII erupting with the US.

[Kvasir]

Originally Posted by aktarian

during which time it faced armed resistance, had to rely on foreign power to keep insurgents at bay and when that power left faced it on it's own.

Actually there was support for the Communists in Afghanistan. A lot of the resistance were more opposed to the equal rights with women than the communism.

[aktarian]

Originally Posted by Kvasir

Actually there was support for the Communists in Afghanistan. A lot of the resistance were more opposed to the equal rights with women than the communism.

some support yes. but majority of population was against them. you'll always find dupes willing to throw their lot with whoever is in charge. Or foreign invader.