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#1
March 29th, 2008, 11:33 AM
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The Restless Twenties (CP Victory Timeline)
Central Powers Victorious
1918 Foch is killed in his car crash. When the Germans threaten breakout, without his influence Petain and Haig withdraw away from each other, allowing the Germans to smash the centre and drive on Paris. France is reeling, hit with Bolshevik uprisings, mutinies and the recall of troops from other fronts US forces make a major counter-attack, but disastrous co-ordination with their French allies, and the general state of panic in French headquarters leads the venture to disaster and it breaks down with massive losses At the same time, German forces over-run the outer lines of Petain's defences and threaten a breakthrough there Collapse of the Allied governments, as Clemenceau is ousted and replaced by a Leftist as an attempt to mollofy the strikers and demonstrators. In Britain, Lloyd George's shaky coalition collapses and Bonar Law heads up a largely Conservative administration. Haig is replaced, but the new British commander is now basically in charge of a British-Belgian enclave around the Channel ports The new French government stumbles through crises and the Germans press their advantage, taking Paris and shattering a half-hearted counter-attack by Petain, reinforced by French troops from Italy France sues for peace Britain talks loudly about staying in the fight for Belgium etc, but US sentiment has swung bitterly against the landwar and strong feelings States-side lead to a collapse of morale at home Prime Minister Bonar Law makes a speech about perseverance and overcoming hardship etc, which coincides with news of the French signing of surrender documents, and revolution threatens in Britain The situation drags on through early Summer, but it becmoes clear that Wilson is an impossible task in galvanising US opinion, whilst the US forces which have withdrawn into the British-held enclave are in no state to affect the outcome as they stand Unrest begins to hit Germany too as it looks like its leaders are deliberately prolonging an already victorious war Queen Wilhelmina of the Netherlands brokers an Armistice and peace negotiations will be held at The Hague Thus 3 treaties (and their associated satellite treaties) end the war :- -1- Brest-Litovsk sees Russia out -2- Paris sees France out -3- The Hague sees Britain, the USA and Italy out Due to widespread social unrest, the terms in the West are not so devastating and fall short of the rhetoric of war Under the Treaty of Paris, France has already agreed to German annexation of the rest of Alsace-Lorraine, plus Luxembourg and the occupation of the Bre Ironfields for 10 years as 'Reparations' Under the Treaty of The Hague, these terms are ratified plus German annexation of Belgian Luxembourg but restoration of the rest of the kingdom as a state in perpetual neutrality (and behind the scenes, pressure for Albert to abdicate to make this neutrality a reality) Regarding the colonies :- - the British dominions get to keep their conquests (the only way to get them to sign up) - Japan keeps Tsingtao (taking over Germany's lease from China as it earlier did Russia's on Port Arthur after conquest) and gets to 'lease' bases in the N Pacific islands, though these are returned to German civil administration and sovereignty (thus largely demilitarising them, as far as the ability to base any worthwhile German forces there is concerned) Other colonies were originally intended to be in an annex to the Treaty of Paris, but now are combined into one of The Hague and emerge as The Hague Colonial Settlement - Eastern Belgian Congo goes to Germany - Northern Mozambique goes to Germany - Tanganyika is restored in full to Germany - Togoland is restored in full to Germany - Western Kamerun is ceded to Britain - This is balanced by large gains to the East and South from France Other German ambitions are thwarted Wilson refuses to sign this treaty, but nobody much cares The Treaty of The Hague also addresses the position of Italy and the Balkans :- - Italy gains the area of Gorizia/Trentino offered to it in 1914 - Italy's possession of the Dodecanese and Tripolitania/Cyrenaica is ratified - Independence of Albania and Montenegro is restored in full - Serbian Macedonia is ceded to Bulgaria - Greece cedes Salonika to Bulgaria - The Ottomans accept the independence of Egypt (this is their only loss, though the ratification of Italian colonies thwarts their hopes) - Serbia is restored as a demilitarised state under an Obrenovic scion and as an Austrian vassal - Brest-Litovsk and its successor treaties are ratified by the Western Allies The situation in the East Kingdom of Finland Kingdom of Lithuania Polish National Congress Ukraine Elections in Georgia German general staff continues support for Judenich, who in concert with Mannerheim's Finns attacks Petrograd 1919 plus Final settlement for - Baltic Duchy - Poland - Ukraine White forces drive Bolsheviks back on Moscow 1919 sees elections in Britain which bring a Labour victory and sees MacDonald as Prime Minister, his painful war experience of constantly opposing the conflict now seeming having to have been vindicated Despite rise of the German left (SPD elected in greater numbers to the Reichstag etc), the general staff retain their influence and control of foreign policy in the East Thus by 1921, we see the establishment of a White government in Moscow, one which ratifies a series of other treaties and agreements - size of Finland - independence of Ukraine - independence of the Crimea - borders of an independent Poland - independence of Georgia - borders of Lithuania - borders of the Baltic Duchy - Armenia and N Azerbaijan to the Ottomans Central and East Asia With Wilson's irrelevance from 1918 and physical collapse in 1919, US policy enters a hiatus until the presidential elections of 1920 Victory for Lodge on a policy of isolationism. Wilson is set to go down in history as the madman who sent American troops to fight a war in Europe, despite all historical precedent This allows Japan to bolster its own vassals in the Far Eastern Republic, and to influence events in Mongolia to its advantage White forces focus on the reconquest of Central Asia throughout the early 1920s The 1920s thus see Japan mainly focused in Siberia - elsewhere it evacuates most of Manchuria by agreement, retaining the lease on Liaoyang and Port Arthur - it evacuates most of Shantung, retaining the lease on Kiaochau/Tsingtao In this strategy, Japan thus has a defensive shield consisting of its leased bases, in the N Pacific islands, in Shantung and in Manchuria. Behind this is the Home Islands (now expanded over all of Sakhalin and the Kurils by agreement with the FER) and Korea, which is increasingly integrated into Japan proper. Beyond this, Japan focuses its energies in the FER and Mongolia, using them by proxy as both a source of income and raw materials and as a buffer against a gradually resurgant Russia Best Regards Grey Wolf
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#2
March 29th, 2008, 11:35 AM
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Pt 2
1920s Tensions
-1- Bulgaria v Greece Leads to a short hard-fought war. Bulgaria views itself as having achieved its natural and rightful size (ie correcting the wrong of the abandonment of San Stefano) and exerts great energies to defeat Greek attempts to take Salonika. Greek naval superiority is largely an irrelevance as they do not have the capacity to mount amphibious operations, and the closure of Kevalla and Salonika to shipping is an irritation only to Bulgaria. Ottoman and German pressure upon Greece gathers in intensity as the Bulgarians hold out, and faced with possible action by the combined powers Athens folds and agrees to a status quo ante bellum peace. Revolution in Greece sees the overthrow of the monarchy and the institution of a revolutionary socialist government. The combined powers rail against this, but Austria has its own problems (see below) and the German Left won't allow German forces to be involved in anti-socialist operation, even for the sake of one of the Kaiser's relatives -2- Ottoman-Arab Tensions Although an Ottoman victory in association with the Germans consigned the Arab Revolt and the British advances in Palestine and Mesopotamia to the history books, the recognition of Egyptian independence combined with simmering ill-feeling has created a situation where the Arabs by and large no longer view themselves as natural Ottoman subjects For the mostpart, the Ottomans play on the fact that Britain remains ensconced in Egypt so that any independence there is illusory, and also on the Sultan's role as Caliph and Protector of the Holy Places, which role is emphasised the more by the defeat for the rebellious Sherrif. -3- Albania The restored William of Wied receives the boost of international recognition and aid, but faces a catastrophic situation across a kingdom that had been occupied by numerous foreign powers, and where its major power brokers are all up in arms, quite literally speaking. Military aid from Germany and Austria secure the restoration and provide long-term protection for it, but a political settlement is years in the making -4- Rumania The forgotten power as far as the war goes, King Ferdinand's abject humiliation in being forced to join the Central Powers upon his defeat now seems like the acceptance of the inevitable. But Rumania, defeated in its ambitions regarding Transylvania and havnig lost the Southern Dobruja back to Bulgaria, can only console itself with the gain of Bessarabia, but even here has to put up with initial large German military and civil presence, which only reduces as the political settlement in the Ukraine, Crimea and Caucasus beds in -5- Austria-Hungary Kaiser Karl's post-war negotiations with the Hungarians are doomed more or less from the outset. Faced with strong nationalist showings in the Czech lands and across the South Slav lands, Karl eventually sifts through every option and decides to adopt a four-crown federal empire, hoping to model central authority as closely as possible upon the German model Hungary is furious for three reasons - its special status as an equal to the Germanic part will be diluted - the formation of a S Slav 'crown' threatens its ownership of Croatia - the increased role for the central authority, divorced from either Austria or Hungary per se, threatens its independence of action A threatened Hungarian rising falters, whilst conspiracies to put another Habsburg on the throne in Budapest come to nothing, largely for lack of an obvious candidate. One of Franz Ferdinand's sons emerges as the unwitting candidate in one plot, but his father's unpopularity dooms this to failure Eventually, a compromise is agreed, with not a little forceful persuasion from a Germany keen not to see a civil war on its Southern borders. - A quadripartite federal empire is agreed - The kingdoms of Bohemia and Bosnia are granted equal internal status to those of Austria and Hungary - Hungary retains Croatia, as Austria retains Carniola and S Tyrol - Dalmatia is to be part of Bosnia - The Imperial Authority and Imperial Government are reconstituted on the German model - But also on the German model (a la Bavaria), Hungary is allowed to retain control of its armed forces in peacetime, and to have its own ambassador at the Vatican China A strong centralised republic emerges from the chaos of the later war years as Japan respects its sovereign rights and supports its objectives. Japanese economic penetration is met with little opposition, and helps to rebuild the Chinese economy. In addition, Japan's pre-eminent position in the FER and Mongolia means that close economic relations are built up with both those states Best Regards Grey Wolf
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#3
March 29th, 2008, 11:37 AM
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Pt 3
Naval Matters
There is no real NEED for a treaty The things that OTL Washington was designed to deal with are herein either dealt with by the natural course of events, happen anyway but at a slower pace, or are dealt with by other agreements *(eg the Japanese-German one over the N Pacific islands) The isolationist USA focuses on the completion of the best ship types (ie not the Lexingtons) Japan slowly plods on through the 8-8 programme, building in additional but deliberate delays, especially after the 1923 Tokyo Earthquake Germany slowly completes those under construction (compromise between navy and political Left) Britain will slowly complete the Hoods, build in redesigns etc but a Labour government won't care much for new designs and will stop work on planning N3/G3 etc In turn, Germany won't feel the need to lay down new ship types or proceed further with the Yorcks. It completes the remaining Badens and the 4 Mackensens Defeated France scraps all ships building (and thus no Bearn as a carrier) Italy completes 2 of the Carriocolos (I can never spell that !) as the Austro-Hungarian navy is still intact and a potential threat Britain is forced by the Treaty of The Hague to retrocede Agincourt and Erin to the Ottomans (no great loss to Britain since under Labour it plans a large programme of decommissioning and laying up of all but the most modern ship classes) Salamis is sold at a cut-price deal to the Netherlands and completed with new guns ordered from the USA Spain never begins its projected second class of dreadnoughts [u]Fate of the Russian Ships[/i] The ones run by the Germans in the Black Sea are eventually handed over to the Ukraine The Bolshevik Baltic Fleet is sunk in a German attack in support of the White advances of 1919. Plans to refloat a few and incorporate them into the Finnish fleet are scrapped due both to cost and to the general parlous states of the ships before sinking. Germany eventually sells Finland a couple of Ostfriesland class dreadnoughts and provides crews for training Best Regards Grey Wolf
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#4
March 29th, 2008, 11:37 AM
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Pt 4
Setting up the Scenario
The planned date to 'end up' in is in the range 1928-1930 and at the moment of writing has not been finalised. Britain In Britain, the 1924 elections see a resurgance for the Liberals. Reasons behind this include the collapse of the Bolsheviks in Moscow, which whilst immediately irrelevant is used to great effect by the opponents of Labour who especially link MacDonald to them, and see in their defeat his own come-uppance. In addition, due to the parlous state of affairs at the end of the war, Labour has by definition failed to meet the expectations of those who voted for them, and failed to implement many of its promises, especially in the areas of industry where it ran into serious legal challenges that dragged on and on. Labour's successes, which include fully equal suffrage for women, also rebound against them as more women vote for the Liberals than for Labour in the election Lloyd George makes a return as Prime Minister, surprising many who in 1918 had forecasted his annihilation on the political scene. By 1928, continuing economic problems have led to the rise of right wing elements and to a general culture of street fighting gangs affiliated to these USA In the USA, President Lodge was re-elected for 1924-28 The 1928 elections take place in the crisis looking likely to lead towards a war between Russia and Japan over the Far Eastern Republic and Mongolia Russia is rebuilding with German aid Japan has retained a friendly relationship to Britain Many fear that a war would be a way to fight a partial rematch of the Great War by proxy and are afraid that it would not stay limited so France Indo-China is in revolt against France from the mid 1920s France saw an attempted revolution in Paris in 1922, the main cause being the reparation payments to Germany, when Germany is thriving and its Economic Sphere in the East is doing it well, so why is France paying Germany ? The Third Republic puts it down, but faces growing right-wing groups thereafter that can be broadly labelled - monarchist - militarist - Bonapartist Only thier splintered nature prevents a general crisis at this point 1925 and after sees elections which bring only very unstable coalitions 1928 sees the end of German occupation/reparations in the Brie area, but French political life is already broken the ability of this to fix it The unrest in Britain pre-elections there seens ti give an added impetus for France's crises Italy Three views on the war emerge -1- Italy was lucky to come out with what it did (gains from Austria-Hungary and everyone recognising its position in the Dodecanese and Libya) -2- Italy was short-changed massively and this is viewed with huge resentment -3- Italy shouldn't have entered the war in the first place and should've stayed loyal to the German alliance Unstable governments during the 1920s - war versus the Somali sultanates as per OTL but far more is made of this - war versus the Senussi now that the Ottomans had to re-ratify their cession By c1926 mass disillusionment Election of a right wing - at the same time as the SPF experiences setbacks in the Reichstag elections, to centre-right parties Rapprochement between Germany and Italy sealed 1927 with the Treaty of Rome Spain Initially similar to OTL, with the setbacks of the Riff War and the establishment of a military government underneath the king Portugal Revolution in Portugal 1920 After the disasters of the war and of the peace A left-wing rising put down by the military By 1922 military-republican rule is collapsing under economic crises and colonial uprisings 1923 Portuguese monarchical revolutions Spain, needing a distraction, intervenes in support of Manoel In Britain, Labour gives ineffective support to the Republicans but is already undermined by the prior crushing of the left wing revolution which means that many in Britain view the republicans as enemies of the cause already Spanish intervention secures Manoel his throne In Britain, the Liberal government recognises this in 1925 Spain Late 1920s sees a Spanish revival 1926/7 Spain follows Italy's lead in drawing closer to Germany Portugal and the Crisis of 1928 Portugal in 1928 is in another crisis -1- The king and his supporters are keen to keep close to Spain but Spain is a German ally and German-British tensions are rising dangerously due to the looming Russo-Japanese war -2- Liberals in Britain have recognised the Portuguese Restoration, Britain supports Portugal against the rebels in its colonies, whilst Spain and Germany are not natural friends of Portugal as Britain is seen as Best Regards Grey Wolf
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#5
March 29th, 2008, 11:39 AM
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Pt 5
Notes
Britain Economic slump (NOT a Depression) - occurs due to the effects of the Great War as they work their way through In Britain, by the later 1920s right-wing street-fighting gangs - against the law (seen as a government stooge) - against the unions (and thus Labour) Far Eastern Republic War looming against Russia Japan provides weapons, finances, aides etc Recently arrived US observers (qv) Russia armed with German weapons, aeroplanes, vehicles Naval With the growing crisis in the Far East, the new president promises a new programme of naval construction Japan is completing its 8-8 programme as well as modernising its earlier dreadnoughts Germany modernises the Koenigs Work begins on new class to replace the Kaisers (under new centre right government) France only has about 4-5 in commission, and only half of these in full commission Italy modernises its older dreadnoughts Spain has 2 surviving dreadnoughts (after accident) The Ottomans have 3 (Yavuz, Osman, Reshadieh) Britain has the 4 Hoods, 2 Repulse, 5 Rs, 5 Queen Elizabeths plus 4 Iron Dukes, 1 Tiger, 2 Lion and 4 Marlboroughs Germany would number the 4 Badens, 4 Mackensens, 2 Hindenburgs, 4 Koenigs, and the Seydlitz with the 5 Kaisers, the Moltke and the Von der Tann in reserve (the latter purely a training ship) The USA has kept all of its dreadnoughts from the South Dakotas and Marylands, down to the first dreadnoughts of the South Carolina class, though not all are in active commission Austria eventually completed two of the Ersatz Monarch class, to add to the 3 surviving Viribus Unitis dreadnoughts The other 'Dreadnought Powers' are :- Netherlands = 1 Ukraine = 2 Russia = 2 (bought second hand and employed in the Baltic) Finland = 2 Chile = 1 Brazil = 2 Argentina = 2 Sweden, Norway and Denmark all have relatively modern coast defence battleship programmes Aircraft Carriers Only small carriers have been built, with no major conversions getting the go ahead. In Britain, Labour ceased all work on the Eagle and the hull was among the many ships scrapped in the post-war period. The US considered converting a couple of the Lexingtons but did not go along with it. Britain, Japan and the USA thus have small flush-decked carriers, numbering only a couple each Best Regards Grey Wolf
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#6
March 29th, 2008, 11:40 AM
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Pt 6
Aircraft, Airships etc
Britain sees no R100/R101 projects Instead the focus is on Trans-Atlantic naval/military/Canadian airships (note the R-24 first made this flight in OTL in 1919) Germany trans-European zepellins especially to the Eastern states, including the Ottoman Empire US Naval only Japan has airship transport to destinations within the FER Russia with German technology has built up a network from mid 1920s including to the borders of the FER/E Front Overview Poland - Habsburg king (Teschen line) Lithuania - Wurttemburg king (Urach line) Baltic Duchy - Mecklenburg duke Ukraine - Hetmanate Crimea - Tatar Republic Georgia - Republic Finland - Hessian king (Hesse-Cassel) Britain - King George V - Edward, Prince of Wales (unmarried) - other sons of the king Germany - Kaiser Wilhelm II - Wilhelm, Crown Prince - other sons of the Emperor Austria - Kaiser Karl - Crown Prince Otto Italy - King Vittorio Emanuele III - Crown Prince Umberto Montenegro - King Danilo by late 1920s Bulgaria - Tsar Ferdinand Best Regards Grey Wolf
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#7
March 29th, 2008, 11:41 AM
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Very interesting. I've seen plenty of CP victories TLs, but they tend to assume that the devestations of the war hadn't occurred. Here you have Germany being the hegemon of a shattered Europe which it may not be able to hold together.
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#8
March 29th, 2008, 11:43 AM
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Interesting TL, more unique then many
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#9
March 29th, 2008, 11:44 AM
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Pt 7 - Notes to Characters
Potential Characters
-1- British Baronet limps from a war wound gay angry, disillusioned struggling etc taken up as a lieutenant by a right-wing leader -2- French Nobles Brother and sister Scions of one of Napoleon's generals (not Marshals) 2nd Empire ennobled Their father is a minor duke They saw older brother and heir killed in the war The new heir and sister support the Bonapartist cause -3- Soccer Player Huddersfield Town player Injured, struggling to return to form Sees the social conditions deterioate up North -4- Socialist woman Continental (German, French or Spanish ?) Revolutionary background - boyfriend was killed in (whatever is relevant here) -5- FER Army Commander Sees Japanese aides and German weapons in Russian hands and deals with US observers -6- USN Commander perhaps cruiser on Portugal/ W Med station Perhaps US leases bases in the Azores ? Best Regards Grey Wolf
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#11
March 29th, 2008, 11:47 AM
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Quote:
Not sure where it goes from here, as I was trying to set up a world for c1929 to then see if I could write about it. I do need to research a few things though - potential tank designs, based both on German WW1 experience and on looking at things such as the Vickers heavy tank of OTL. Also need to get my head around aeroplane and motor vehicle manufacturing once again. When did colour moving photography become viable ? Questions like that, in addition to "How do you turn the light on?" which is causing me no end of headaches for 1929 ! Best Regards Grey Wolf
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#12
March 29th, 2008, 11:50 AM
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I was trying to avoid (is the word panaceas ?) where post-war the victorious alliance has a suddenly lovely time of it - after all, one can hardly say this happened to Britain, France etc in OTL. Thus, I don't think, for instance, that the Ottomans are going to have an easy time of it with their Arab populations, no matter that the revolts themselves will have been easily crushed Best Regards Grey Wolf
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#13
March 29th, 2008, 11:53 AM
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Also, ideas on who the next US president might be ? And alternative leaders for the British political parties - I can see Lloyd George hanging on and carrying on, but is Henderson or Morrison now running Labour ? I would think that MacDonald was too badly damaged by his experiences in government, and his defeat, to have stayed on. As for the Tories ? I was thinking perhaps Austen Chamberlain, but he's getting old, but may well be the right sort of person to see them into the 1930s before handing over to a new guard Talking of which, I need some right wing dudes for Britain (not Mosley and co, thanks !) Best Regards Grey Wolf
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#15
March 29th, 2008, 12:22 PM
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Best Regards Grey Wolf
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#16
March 29th, 2008, 12:39 PM
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Also, having recently developed an interest for early 20th Century Mongolia because of my own TL, I'd like to know more about the situation in Mongolia. I believe it is a Japanese client-state but what government is in place and who is leader? And I assume Pavlo Skoropadsky is hetman of Ukraine, is he?
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#17
March 29th, 2008, 02:09 PM
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Austro-Hungary didn't change any borders ? Are the Eastern states ruled de facto by Ober Ost or German puppets ?
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#18
March 29th, 2008, 02:22 PM
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Great TL though.
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#19
March 29th, 2008, 02:25 PM
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The rest of Alsace and Lorraine? That would be quite a large territorial concession! It would be the entirety of the departments of Meurthe-et-Moselle, Meuse, Vosges and Belfort to complete Alsace. And Germany wouldnt need to occupy the Bre region, as it would be inside it, IIRC. So, I dont think that is really what you meant. OTOH, I think France has come off incredibly easy in the colonial question, apparently. IOTL, colonial territries were the firts to be given away, and hueg amounts of land in Africa wasnt seen nearly as much worth as the tiniest spots in Europe. I do think at least all French Central Africa might hence fall to Germany, and maybe even parts of French West Africa. And the Germans might empathise getting all of the Belgian Congo to connect Cameroon and German East Africa.
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#20
March 29th, 2008, 03:55 PM
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A Prussian on the Spanish Throne: A TL with a POD in the 1860s in which there isn't a Confederacy and Cuba isn't sold to anyone.
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