Shorter Argentinean civil war

juanml82

juanml82

Argentina went through a long, intermittent civil war for over 40 years witch started in the late 1810s, even before the Independence War was over. In OTL the definitive unification of the country happened in 1862, more than half a century after the Independence War begun. The main causes of the war was the government type (centralist or federalist) and custom's income management (Many important people in Buenos Aires wanting to keep it for the province instead of the country, and since the only port in the country after the separation of Uruguay was in Buenos Aires, that wasn't precisely a good deal for the other provinces).
Anyway, WI the unification of the country was earlier? And since I also want to double the stakes and put a good economy minister in the government. As the guy I chose died too soon, we'll have to go for multiple PODs to make this work.
1st POD: at some time in the late 1780s a young South American student named Manuel Belgrano attempts to pick up a girl. The POD is simply that he gets rejected instead. Of course, what he'll never know is that the girl in question had syphilis.
2nd POD: the not so young lawyer and now general Manuel Belgrano takes command of the Northern Army in the Argentinean Independence War. He contracts palludism and a lot of other nasty things. He's weakened, given license but without syphilis to make things worse, he lives. He's still poor by 1820 and his health is not in good shape though. As the country falls into civil war and he's unwilling to participate in it, he retires from military life and continues to write about economy when his poor health allows him. The centralist government of Rivadavia doesn't listen to him, nor listen his request to send further assistance to Güemes and San Martín. The Independence War and Civil War continue as in OTL. The war with Brazil also goes as in OTL (Belgrano has little to no influence in the government and as his health is weak, isn't involved in the army). Manuel Dorrego returns to Argentina in 1820 as in OTL. Unlike OTL, as Belgrano is still alive, Dorrego finds his economy and education articles interesting and meets his former commander. Too much had happened between these two men in the Independence War and they'll never become friends. But both of them are interested in the other's political insights and turn into political partners.
3rd POD: However, on February 19th 1827 the Brazilian commander, the Marquis of Barbacena, sends a couple of scouts to find the allied Argentinean-Uruguayan army. On February 20th the allied army attacks the Brazilian army, witch is expecting such an attack instead. The battle of Ituzaingó results in a Brazilian victory and it's called then "the Battle of the Rosario's Ford" as Brazilians name it.
President Rivadavia resigns when the news of the defeat at the Rosario's Ford and Dorrego is elected governor, pretty much in the same way as in OTL when Rivadavia resigned. The Brazilian Empire, however, has problems of their own in the way of rebellions, unrest and the threat of resignation of the Prussian mercenaries as they aren't paid as much as they were told. They can't pursue the Allied Army and the war turns into a protracted war.
As Rivadavia has resigned earlier than in OTL, San Martín then returns to Argentina in January 1828 instead and it's promptly given command of the Argentinean Army by his former subordinate, Dorrego. In April 1828 Argentinean forces launch two coordinated offensives, one from Uruguay led by San Martin with the forces that faced the Imperial Brazilian Army in 1827 and fresh troops from the province of Corrientes, at the north. The southern forces defeat the Brazilian forces due superior leadership, cavalry and artillery while the northern group threatens to cut their retreat. Rumor reaches the southern Brazilian provinces that the Argentinean army will free all slaves they'll find in their way north witch promts Emperor Pedro to reach an armistice. At the same time the Argentinean budget is stretch to its limit, funds are scarce and there is no way to really launch an offensive into Río Grande do Sul, witch also prompts Governor Dorrego to reach an armistice.
The war ends. Unlike OTL, Uruguay remains part of the United Provinces of the South (witch urgently needs to change its name as its abbreviation is really ugly :p). Oppositors to Dorrego convince generals Lavalle and Paz to rise against him as in OTL (witch led to Dorrego's assassination by Lavalle) but this time the army isn't lead by Alvear but by San Martín. Word of the conspiracy eventually reaches San Martín and Lavalle, Paz and the instigators are promptly arrested.
The Argentinean Civil war has ended before it could even resurface.
Now, what happens now? Dorrego had support from the other governors, specially the powerful caudillo Facundo Quiroga. He also agreed in creating a federal republic as all the other governors wanted. A federal constitution could have been agreed by 1829. Without Juan Bautista Alberdi's work "Bases y Puntos de Partida..." it would probably had been much more similar as the USA's constitution. Dorrego would have probably been elected president. With Uruguay as part of Argentina, the power and money of Buenos Aires' landlords and merchants would have been diminished as they have direct competition on the other side of the river and also Buenos Aires is no longer the only port in the entire country. Tensions with Brazil might have continued as Brazil might still be interested in conquering Uruguay, that might led to have larger a larger standing (and more professional) army and navy, with the cost they imply. Dorrego's alliance with the provinces would have led to protectionist measures to protect the regional provincial economies. What would be the British reaction to that? Also note that even a bigger navy than OTL (witch consisted of merely two ships) won't stop any French or British blockade as they happened in the 1840s in OTL if differences with the European powers choose gunboat diplomacy. Dorrego also supported real universal (male) suffrage, we might see less fraudulent elections further on.
I also kept Belgrano alive for a reason. He supported universal elemental education for both boys and girls and also technical, artistic and superior education. He could easily see a much earlier effort in elemental education as in OTL. He also gave a lot of emphasis to the creation of a merchant fleet and, given the naval war of the Independence and Brazilian wars, we might also see an increased support for a war fleet. Economically he was a supporter of the agrarian export model, witch was already being implemented at that time, but could have a bigger boom if the government managed to get earlier railroads. Given Belgrano's liberal economical education, protectionist measures (put into effect by political pressure) and technical education, some groups might want some kind of industrialization by the 1840s... could they actually succeed?
And finally... all this would have huge butterflies and might avoid of reshape the War of Triple Alliance later in the 19th century. What might happen in the region if Paraguay avoids the devastation of that war and has a strong, industrialized and growing economy by the late 19th century.
Any thoughts? (Besides this being a laaaarge post :p)
 

Admiral Brown

Very interesting Juanml82! I'll read it carefully tomorrow.

Some ideas for now:

- No civil war + a sensible leadership + Uruguay (with it's port) + Belgrano = a better shaped Argentina by 1850 . The Pods seem reasonable and likely.

I just think that maybe 1840 is to early for an industrialization, as even with inmigration, I don't think there'll be enough population to make it profitable. The gauchos were yet too poor to be considered an important "mercado interno" ; an agrarian program might turn them into middleclass farmers in the long run, but 1840 seems a bit too early.

Finally, railways will be neede. In OTL construction was delayed too long. But, since (I think) the first train appeared in England in 1830, I don't think we can have railways before 1840. (I think; many of you all would know better).

Well, good luck with your TL, if you write it. :)

Off topic: I can't believe what's happening tonight, Juanml82. :mad: :mad: :mad: I hope things turn out well tomorrow...
 

Gonzaga

Very interesting scenario!

Just some thoughts about the Cisplatine War - as we call it here ;) - :

If Brazil suffers a clear defeat, which means Uruguay fully incorporated into Argentina and not the "shameful but acceptable" deal that was to the Empire the Uruguayan independence, then Pedro I would face even more unrest than OTL. Possibly he could even abdicate earlier, what would cause a longer regencial period, with more revolts between liberals and conservatives and between the provinces and the central government. Brazil would not be able to intervene in the Plata affairs for many years.

In the other hand, with Uruguay not independent the government would surely protect the internal production of meat and leather, instead of importing cheaper products from Uruguay in order to keep the Brazilian influence there. Also, a stronger enemy in the Southern border would give more power to the farmers and caudillos from Rio Grande do Sul. It could probably butterfly away the Farrapos War and the Republica Riograndense, now that the Southerners would have more power and their products would be protected from foreign competition.

I doubt Brazil would try to conquer Uruguay again. Even IOTL the Portuguese and Brazilian government was divided about the issue. In 1821 John VI wanted to give independence to the Cisplatina but as a separate state, and not integrated to Argentina. It was General Lecor who convinced him that the Uruguayans would accept to be integrated with Brazil. But the government would surely support any attempt of provincial seccessions.

Also, the main issue of the Brazilian government was the free navigation on the Parana, Paraguay and Uruguay rivers, because they needed it as a comunication route to Mato Grosso and the cities in Rio Grande do Sul border. The whole relation of the Empire with Argentina would depend on how the Argentinean government would deal with it. If the Argentine government makes any possible threat to it, then probably Brazil would try to be allied to Paraguay, which was also interested about this issue.
 
Dan1988

Dan1988

Admiral Brown said:
Finally, railways will be neede. In OTL construction was delayed too long. But, since (I think) the first train appeared in England in 1830, I don't think we can have railways before 1840. (I think; many of you all would know better).
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Railways could probably happen before 1840, possibly - with a stretch.
 
juanml82

juanml82

I just think that maybe 1840 is to early for an industrialization, as even with inmigration, I don't think there'll be enough population to make it profitable. The gauchos were yet too poor to be considered an important "mercado interno" ; an agrarian program might turn them into middleclass farmers in the long run, but 1840 seems a bit too early.
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I've been thinking about that... I actually think that industrialization ends up scratched out. Dorrego also had the support from Rosas, and with him, most landlords. The desert campaign would probably happen, perhaps even earlier than OTL as it was the only way to increase agricultural output (well, the other ways were to assimilate the indians into Argentina or buy the land from them, but I can't see that happen). Now, once the new lands are taken there are roughly two options. One is to divide the land into a lot of smaller settlements as IIRC the USA did. The other one is the OTL Argentinian way: few large settlements for a few people. A conquest war (the desert campaign) supported by Buenos Aires landlords and merchants, plus a (un)healthy dose of paternalism would make the land division go that way. With that land scheme you have few people with large incomes and lots of workers with small incomes, so you can't turn them into an inner market. Once you are in the, let's say, "few large settlements" option the only way to create an inner market in the countryside is IMHO keynesian economics, witch are unknown in the 19th century. We would also have earlier inmigration, and the land could be an incentive to have the inmigrants... well, inmigrate. Again, me thinks the USA did that. But I don't know if something like that can happen in ATL, the internal economic interest are too big.
Some people might understand (Belgrano among them perhaps) that exporting wool to import sweaters isn't a good idea. But a lot depends on material conditions, availiable technology, both external and internal pressure to protectionist measures, university level of (economic) education and, perhaps, Paraguayan economy if the War of the Triple Alliance (or something like that) is avoided.

Gonzaga, thanks for your insight. I was keeping some kind of rivalry between Argentina and Brazil basically to force Argentina to mantain a larger standing army witch might end up putting down revolts in Argentina. But it seems that such an excuse is gone. We also go for a stronger Brazilian economy then, right? Good to know.
Also, the main issue of the Brazilian government was the free navigation on the Parana, Paraguay and Uruguay rivers, because they needed it as a comunication route to Mato Grosso and the cities in Rio Grande do Sul border. The whole relation of the Empire with Argentina would depend on how the Argentinean government would deal with it. If the Argentine government makes any possible threat to it, then probably Brazil would try to be allied to Paraguay, which was also interested about this issue.
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That's probably the most important issue in foreign affairs. That will surely help to further develop the Paraguayan and Brazilian economies. Also (IMHO) one of the reasons Rosas had to forbid the free navigation was that it would also help the provinces of Entre Rios, Corrientes and Santa Fe. As they were enemies, helping their economies wasn't a good idea. That doesn't happen in ATL. With today's mindset about regional integration, union making strenght, referring neighbours as business partners and allies; the long term benefits of allowing foreign merchant fleets on those rivers are evident. But I'm not sure about that with the 19th Century mindset. Would the rulers of the three countries see the economic development of their neighbours as something good in the long run, or as a threat? And how about the military threat: a ship might carry cotton as well as troops.

We'd also see earlier inmigration. None in the 1810s and 1820s thought about that, but the fact that Argentina needed more people in the 19th century it's an understatement. Witch kind of inmigration would it be? Would be see a large amount of Irish inmigration due the potato famine?
I'm also thinking about the possible long term repercution to Argentinean culture... but I'll try to develop that later.
As for a TL, I'm not sure if I'll go for one. First, I won't have much time later on and also I'm not pretty sure about economical facts and issues as well as the world situation at that time.
 

Gonzaga

juanml82 said:
Gonzaga, thanks for your insight. I was keeping some kind of rivalry between Argentina and Brazil basically to force Argentina to mantain a larger standing army witch might end up putting down revolts in Argentina. But it seems that such an excuse is gone. We also go for a stronger Brazilian economy then, right? Good to know.
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Not necessarily stronger. The South - which means Rio Grande do Sul - might become stronger if the government decides to buy more national meat than the imported one. However, the meat bought by Brazil from the Plata region was "charque", used to feed the slaves. Rio Grande do Sul probably would never produce the quantity necessary to supply the slaves of all the other provinces. So, if the government keeps the policy of protect the national production of meat then slaves would become more expensive, because it would be more expensive to feed them. But if they decide that is better to ensure a "good neighborhood" policy with Argentina in order to have access to cheaper "charque" than it would upset the farmers from Rio Grande do Sul, who were generally also the providers of troops to the Army in the Southern border. So we could have or a stronger Southern rebellion or a national crisis in the slavery.

juanml82 said:
Would the rulers of the three countries see the economic development of their neighbours as something good in the long run, or as a threat? And how about the military threat: a ship might carry cotton as well as troops.
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Probably as a threat. They were so suspicious (a stupidity inherited from the colonial times) that even when Brazil and Argentina were allies during the Paraguay War there were problems between the commanders, who didn't trust each other. For example, if Admiral Tamandare had accepted the orders of Mitre, who was the official commander of the allied troops, probably they could have taken the fortress of Humaita still in 1866, and the war would be over 04 years earlier.
 
juanml82

juanml82

A little bit of thread necromancy and the 1829's Constitution

And thus I invoke the ancient powers of thread necromancy hence bringing this almost doomed thread back to life.

Recap:
The year is 1828. Notorious businessmen grouped together under the Unitarian Party visit the victorious Argentinean Army encampments near the Brazilian village of Piratini under the excuse of supplying the army if the peace negotiations fails and a renewed offensive against Brazil is to be considered. General San Martín receives them, along with his staff, most notably Generals Lavalle and Brandsen. As they bargain products, prices and delivery times some discussion about governor Dorrego’s policies, incited by some of this businessman alert San Martin about possible second intentions. The meetings, however, continue around the supply and not the political situation.
In these months San Martin, as any good general worth of his name, takes a serious responsibility in knowing the gossip around the troops and what discussions happen at moonlight, especially when both peace and war are near, the troops are idle, and morale decays. These gossips, however, shock the old general. High ranking, respected, officers are discussing, not the lack of action, or decent food, or payment delays. They are discussing open rebellion. Nobody knows, nor will ever know, whether general Brandsen fully supported Dorrego or he was just overheard. It is however known that, under San Martin’s orders, Brandsen gave away a large part of the unitarian conspiracy. And, under investigation by both the Porteños and Eastern judges, more and more politicians, merchants and officers begun facing trials for treason, denouncing each other or just leaving the country. As 1829 begun, a large number of notorious merchants, politicians and many valuable officers where send to jail or facing exile and the Unitarian Party was mostly disbanded, their prominent leaders in prison. And while the conspiracy to overthrow Dorrego has been proven as real it’s unknown how much of it ended up being real accusations and how much was a witch hunt. No solid evidence, for instance, was ever obtained against Carlos Maria de Alvear, yet he was quick to leave the country.
By December 1828, a peace treaty with Brazil is signed, formally ending Brazilian pretentions over the Eastern Bank, although leaving the definitive border agreements in the Eastern Misiones open. In March 1829, representatives from all the 15 Argentinean provinces met in Santa Fé. Their task: agreeing once and for all in a national Constitution. With the Unitarian party in disarray, the Eastern Bank recognized as part of the Argentinean territory, which in turn diminishes the power of the Buenos Aires’ merchants, there is one thing for sure: The 1829 constitution will be a federal one.

The Federal Constitution of 1829:
When the representatives from the 15 provinces started the heavy task of agreeing in a Constitution, they would never know that their job would so little understood by the future generations. We have to be fair with them. There was hardly any republic in the world at that time, no previous local job on how the constitution should be except the feeble previous attempts of 1819 and 1826. It’s then understandable that the congressmen would, more or less, copy the Constitution of the United States of America. Especially when the Congress was called by a governor who had spend time in the USA, and have learnt to admire it’s political system. That doesn’t mean, however, didn’t stop large discussions on many subjects. A large number of rights and warranties were included, mostly basic rights as equality under the law, the inviolability of post mail (article often disregarded in the years to come) and home, freedom of speech, warranties putting limits to the State’s power, rights to private property, etc. Most of the rights given in the 1826 Constitution were simple added to the new one. The abolition of slavery, somewhat surprisingly didn’t create much discussions. Belgrano, one of the congressman for Buenos Aires, insisted in adding the right to elementary, mandatory, education, which was approved without too much of a hassle either. Federalization of custom’s income was approved, as otherwise the representatives from 13 of the 15 provinces would simply leave the congress (and prepare for war). Under a British requirement to allow free navigation of the inner rivers, the issue was discussed in the Congress, and heated discussions begun. That issue was the first of a lot upcoming discussions and laws between low tariffs and protectionism. The British (and sometimes French) diplomatic pressure collided with the needs of the interior of the country which simply couldn’t compete with European manufactured products and would see their economies crash if they weren’t protected by high tariffs. Brazil and Paraguay also lobbied in that issue and some argue that it was their intervention what tilted the balance to add an article in the Constitution specifically claiming Argentinean sovereignty over its inner rivers. A reduction in tariffs was given to British products later on as compensation, one of the many critized acts of compromise of the Dorrego’s presidency. Citizenship’s loss, included in the 1826 Constitution, wasn’t included in the new one. The issue of reelection, absent in both the USA and the 1826 Constitution long discussed. Eventually, as everybody felt that they could be opposition in the future, the president would remain in office for five years and wouldn’t be able to be reelected until another five years had gone through after his term was over. That issue, and the electoral system dragged a bargain chip none had though it would be problematic: the name of the country. Dorrego defended through the Federal Buenos Aires representatives the universal, secret and free vote for all males over 20 years old. Belgrano had gone even as far as claiming it for literate females as well, although it’s belived that was a negotiation bargain more than a real proposal. That, however, didn’t suit the rest of businessmen and caudillos who rightly felt they could lose control of the government if free elections turned the norm. Dorrego finally threatened to veto the federalization of custom’s income (a move which would have counted with all the Porteños and Eastern representatives support) and, as Facundo Quiroga, though he could control the elections process, and therefore provided the carrot in the stick and carrot policy, that article was included. The registration of people, however, was too leave the control of the Catholic Church, and turned into a responsibility of each province. Thus giving the local caudillos a strong power to rig elections. The country’s name, ended up dragged in those negotiations. Eastern representatives didn’t really feel identified with any of them, although “United Provinces of the River Plate” sort of fit them. The Caudillos from the inner provinces felt “River Plate” was inadequate and centralist and proposed replace it with “South”. But Porteños and some smart caudillos like Quiroga understood that the name lacked centralization and unity. In a country in the brink of civil war and secession “United Provinces” wouldn’t contribute to a long term idea of one single National State. They also argued that the demonym for the country was turning into “Argentineans”, even if many people in the interior of the country didn’t like it and “Argentinean Republic/Confederacy” was already in use, the name could just be “Argentinean Republic”. However, as noted above, that discussion turned into a bargaining chip in the more important issues of elections and reelection. In the end, the Congress agreed a somewhat awkward compromise solution. The country would officially be name “United Argentinean Provinces” (Provincias Unidas Argentinas). That allowed people from the interior to referred to it as United Provinces if they felt like it and, over time, the name begun to commonly be referred as “Argentina”.
Few other discussions were left. The president and vice president would be elected indirectly by an electoral college. Some provinces wanted to keep civil, commercial and penal codes, among others, in the province jurisdiction. But, as the task of redacting full civil and commercial codes was huge and different commercial codes would be problematic, only penal codes would be issued by each province for their territory while a single civil and commercial code would be issued for the whole country. Also, some Porteño congressman wanted to name the Representative chamber the “cámara de diputados” but the French sounding name was laughed at and the proposal become just a joke. A national census was planned to be done in 1831.
And finally by August 1829 the new Constitution was approved and swore. In December 1829 Dorrego assumed as the elected president, with a sick and weakened Belgrano as his economy minister (Belgrano wanted education, but Dorrego convinced him to get the economy one), Vicente López y Planes as foreign relationship minister, General San Martín as chief of the army and Admiral Brown as chief of the navy
 

Admiral Brown

Is this the beginig of s TL? Very interesting!

Just a question:

juanml82 said:
By December 1828, a peace treaty with Brazil is signed, formally ending Brazilian pretentions over the Eastern Bank,although leaving the definitive border agreements in the Eastern Misiones open.
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Does this mean that Uruguay ends in Argentine hands??? Would that be possible without the war going on??? I mean, Argentina had tecnically won the war, and the Eastern Band of Uruguay was in our hands... but IIRC Brazil wasn't happy with that situation, and the Argentine treasure had no more money to continue the war. In order to have Brazil accepting the loss of Uruguay, I think either more Argentinien victories (in Brazilian territory) or serious problems in Brazil (internal conflict, revelions in the North, economic problems, civil war, something of the sort) would be needed.
 
juanml82

juanml82

I have some ideas about how to continue it, but feel free to post any comments, ideas, suggestions, objections, etc. I rather use those along with my own general ideas. I can also end up put somewhat unrealist or out of character stuff, so any contribution are welcome. Let's say that my ideas are very open to change.

Does this mean that Uruguay ends in Argentine hands??? Would that be possible without the war going on???
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That's the idea. That will create additional tension with Brazil due the unresolved border issue while at the same time diminishing the power of the Porteño elite, as they no longer control the only port in the country. However
I mean, Argentina had tecnically won the war, and the Eastern Band of Uruguay was in our hands... but IIRC Brazil wasn't happy with that situation, and the Argentine treasure had no more money to continue the war. In order to have Brazil accepting the loss of Uruguay, I think either more Argentinien victories (in Brazilian territory) or serious problems in Brazil (internal conflict, revelions in the North, economic problems, civil war, something of the sort) would be needed.
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Indeed. This ATL war involves an Argentinean defeat at Ituzaingó (ATL's Battle of Rosario's ford), with a later sucessful two pronged Argentinean offensive that penetrates a bit deeper in Southern Brazil (note that the army's camp isn't in Bagé but in Piratini. Those offensives are basically a renewed offensive along current northern Uruguay plus the OTL secondary offensive through Corrientes, which last a bit longer this time. Now, with the Argentinean army stationed more to the north and having released the slaves along the way, the posibility of a rebellion in Brazil increase. Which might scare Pedro I and make him sign such a peace treaty. The question of course is if that's enough or the Argentinean offensive has to reach ie Porto Alegre - which it couldn't due the lack of funds. Of course, we can also put into work Dorrego's OTL plan to kidnap Pedro I, which happens to be far cheaper than a renewed offensive
 

Gonzaga

juanml82 said:
Indeed. This ATL war involves an Argentinean defeat at Ituzaingó (ATL's Battle of Rosario's ford), with a later sucessful two pronged Argentinean offensive that penetrates a bit deeper in Southern Brazil (note that the army's camp isn't in Bagé but in Piratini. Those offensives are basically a renewed offensive along current northern Uruguay plus the OTL secondary offensive through Corrientes, which last a bit longer this time. Now, with the Argentinean army stationed more to the north and having released the slaves along the way, the posibility of a rebellion in Brazil increase. Which might scare Pedro I and make him sign such a peace treaty. The question of course is if that's enough or the Argentinean offensive has to reach ie Porto Alegre - which it couldn't due the lack of funds. Of course, we can also put into work Dorrego's OTL plan to kidnap Pedro I, which happens to be far cheaper than a renewed offensive
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Porto Alegre is too far from the border, and it would be a logistical nightmare to conquer it. If you look at the geography of the city you can notice that it's located in east side of the Guaíba lake, what would be a natural barrier against any enemy force. To conquer the city you would need to cross or the "Lagoa dos Patos" or the Jacuí River in Rio Pardo, Santo Amaro, Taquari or Triunfo, but that would be too far north too. Even during the Seven Years War, when the Spanish troops occupied almost all Rio Grande do Sul, was impossible to them to pass Rio Pardo.

A better option would be conquer the city of Rio Grande. It was the only sea port of Rio Grande do Sul, and the only naval access to the interior of the province. Also, it was nearer from the border. If Argentine troops take Rio Grande (and with some luck they are able to seize some ships there) then they would strangle the naval communications between Porto Alegre and Rio de Janeiro, and could even used it as base for naval attacks against Rio Grande do Sul's capital.

About scaring Pedro I, may I suggest a solution: just kill him. IOTL, in December 1826, he was in Rio Grande do Sul inspecting the troops, and would probably command them personally during the operations of early 1827. But in December 11st his wife died during a miscarriage, and he left to Rio, leaving the command of the Brazilian troops to the Marquis of Barbacena.

So, let's say that his wife doesn't die (you already have created multiple PODs, why not one more :p). Pedro stays in Rio Grande do Sul, and commands personally the troops. The presence of the Emperor by itself is reason to more troops and money be sent to the army. Passo do Rosário is a clear Brazilian victory, Pedro is satisfied and go back to the court.

When the scenario you described above happens, and the Argentines are more successful in the war, Pedro decides that, given the previous example of Passo do Rosário, his presence is essencial to the Brazilian victory. He goes back to Rio Grande do Sul to command the troops once more, but this time he dies in battle. With the Emperor dead, a financial crisis only worsened by the war and the political struggle in Rio whoever is in control of the court might accept the surrender. Of course, now you have created chaos in Brazilian politics, but that would be a chance that the Argentines might take advantage.
 
Dan1988

Dan1988

Hmm, an interesting idea, juanml82. Keep it going. :)

Though I find this POD interesting:

juanml82 said:
1st POD: at some time in the late 1780s a young South American student named Manuel Belgrano attempts to pick up a girl. The POD is simply that he gets rejected instead. Of course, what he'll never know is that the girl in question had syphilis.
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Did syphilis affect Belgrano's health that much?
 

dalmine2009

One good POD would by the 1824 constitution. Let`s say that the constitution grants freedom to all slaves in argentina...so wen the argentinean orces enters in brazilian territory they start feeing the slaves.....once the news of argentinean feeing the slaves reachs all corners of brazil, the Empire will face a full scale rebelion of slaves, that will force Pedro I to choose 2 diferente options:

1º.- Figth argentina and the slaves at once ( They will loss badly)
2º.- Make peace with argentina (most likely surrender to argentina) an then try to figth the slaves.

One way or another the brazilians will lose
 

dalmine2009

Send Rivadavia Far far away as ambassador to Russia or China or other country or you can have him dead......maybe during the 1820 civil war or a political assesination (in this case justice, the guy was a traitor to the country) :D:D:D As for Garcia.... make him get kill or something by angry brazilian soldiers in route to Rio de Janeiro ;););)
 
juanml82

juanml82

Dan1988 said:
Did syphilis affect Belgrano's health that much?
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Syphilis combined with diseased he got in the military campaigns. Trying to avoid those diseases would create to many butteflies. Removing syphilis (and a small bit of handwavering) doesn't. But, sick as he was, by 1829 he's already living in borrowed time
One good POD would by the 1824 constitution. Let`s say that the constitution grants freedom to all slaves in argentina...so wen the argentinean orces enters in brazilian territory they start feeing the slaves..
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More on that below. We don't really need the 1824 constitution, the argentinean army would do it just to create mayhem in Brazil
Porto Alegre is too far from the border, and it would be a logistical nightmare to conquer it. If you look at the geography of the city you can notice that it's located in east side of the Guaíba lake, what would be a natural barrier against any enemy force. To conquer the city you would need to cross or the "Lagoa dos Patos" or the Jacuí River in Rio Pardo, Santo Amaro, Taquari or Triunfo, but that would be too far north too. Even during the Seven Years War, when the Spanish troops occupied almost all Rio Grande do Sul, was impossible to them to pass Rio Pardo.
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And that's precisely the reason why I rather read other people's contribution instead of trying to develop an entire TL mostly on my own
About scaring Pedro I, may I suggest a solution: just kill him. IOTL, in December 1826, he was in Rio Grande do Sul inspecting the troops, and would probably command them personally during the operations of early 1827. But in December 11st his wife died during a miscarriage, and he left to Rio, leaving the command of the Brazilian troops to the Marquis of Barbacena.

So, let's say that his wife doesn't die (you already have created multiple PODs, why not one more :p). Pedro stays in Rio Grande do Sul, and commands personally the troops. The presence of the Emperor by itself is reason to more troops and money be sent to the army. Passo do Rosário is a clear Brazilian victory, Pedro is satisfied and go back to the court.

When the scenario you described above happens, and the Argentines are more successful in the war, Pedro decides that, given the previous example of Passo do Rosário, his presence is essencial to the Brazilian victory. He goes back to Rio Grande do Sul to command the troops once more, but this time he dies in battle. With the Emperor dead, a financial crisis only worsened by the war and the political struggle in Rio whoever is in control of the court might accept the surrender. Of course, now you have created chaos in Brazilian politics, but that would be a chance that the Argentines might take advantage.
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Now, that's a great idea. Plus, this thread needs some bloodshed, so so we’ll have to go back in time to one sunny morning in 1828 in the proximities of the Brazilian village of São Gabriel.

[FONT=&quot]The Battle of São Gabriel

[/FONT]

The young emperor watches south with a small telescope, were rebel forces, reinforced with a large contingent of Argentinean troops, begun to form up for battle. How it came to this, the emperor thought. One year ago those troops were hardly a menace. They were defeated in land in Rosario’s Pass, their only port was still blockaded, their foreign trade halted and, he assumed, their economy in shambles. Not that it made that much of a difference in this side of the border, he remembered. But for the last few months, that infernal Argentinean cavalry have been routing and chasing the Imperial forces all along the border, only the hilly terrain having avoided a disaster. Even more, a second large force was advancing, north of this position, all along the Eastern Misiones, burning, looting and pillaging all in their path. They were even attempting to cut off the Imperial Army in their very own country! Cursing at the sight of the enemy’s flag, the emperor climbed to his horse and galloped to his army’s front line. One of his generals asked him if he was sure of his plans, both battle and personal plans. He nodded. In these times were monarchs hardly went to war, unlike their predecessors born centuries ago, and just made decisions comfortably sit in their thrones, this emperor, the Emperor of Brazil, would lead his troops into battle. Their task, simple: destroy the enemy’s cavalry, route their infantry and turn northwest to stop the offensive on their western front as well. And to hell with this bad feeling he’s been having since he woke up. Battles can’t be fought or abandoned based on bad omens.

Two miles south, a little over one thousand men look in anger at the Brazilian forces, located between them and the village. For a week they’ve been on forced marches trying to reach São Gabriel before the Imperial Army. And now, just a few miles away from the village, enemy soldiers stand in the way. Below a flag, an old general looks the same situation. He’ll have to push his cavalry and horses, then, he thinks. Not precisely his plan. One of his colonels arrives, intending to discuss battle plans. The general, technically what was once called an “American Spanish” have spent nearly all his youth in Spain, at the service of the Bourbons kings, fighting the Moroccans, the British, the French and finally the Spanish army he had once swore loyalty to. The colonel approaching him was nothing else than a French veteran of the Napoleonic wars. And if, decades ago, these men were meeting in a battlefield, they would do it with the sole purpose of cutting each other’s head. Yet, at 6000 miles from Europe at her old wars, colonel Brandsen had turned to be one of General San Martin’s most valuable officers… and best friend. He gave his telescope back to San Martin, incredulous.
Oblique order, you say? He asks his General

A text book plan, says San Martín while he examines again the Brazilian disposition. “Nobody ever said that Emperors made the best tacticians”

Emperor? Asks Brandsen

Taking the telescope again, he looks at the Brazilians again. And he notices. Right in front of the Argentinean left wing, the Brazilians have disposed the remaining Prussian mercenaries, with artillery support and a detachment of cavalry. And, among the riders, Brandsen spots, in a luxury uniform, the Emperor Pedro I himself. And he understands. Pedro have placed himself as a bait: the Argentinean officers would sure want to go for him and, protected by artillery and his best infantry, the Argentinean forces would need to put their own best troops in their left flank. And while engaged in battle, Brazilian cavalry would outflank them from the right. Predictable, he speaks loudy. San Martín nods, biting his lower lip. The general immediately calls his messengers and Tomás Iriarte, in charge of the Argentinean artillery.

-Federico, you’re covering this left flank, along with all our artillery. We’ll use our newer black recruits in this flank though. They aren’t well trained, but they are fanatical… and have nothing to lose – San Martin then turned to his messenger – Tell Lavalle to wait in reserve with his forces in our right flank until the Brazilians attack there. And remind him: he can push his men a lot, but not these old and cheap horses. And also tell the Easterns that this village will be ours, once again, tonight.

The Argentinean forces begin to move along this new disposition. Small bottles of gin are given to the soldiers while a few of them move to the back of the lines, sabers and whips ready for the nasty task of preventing cowards to run. The artillery moves into position while the Brazilian slowly advance, loading their own cannons. A while later, similar shouts are heard along the battlefield

¡Artilleros, fuego!

¡Artilheiros, fogo!

And with the blast of cannon fire and screams from mutilated soldiers as cannonballs shoot across the field, the Battle of São Gabriel begins. On the north side of the field, the general notices something strange, and quickly informs his emperor. The Argentinean artillery is very ineffective. Cannonballs are hitting with less force than what they should have, casualties are lower than expected and some shots aren’t even reaching the Brazilian lines. With a sudden grin, the emperor asks about the location of the enemy’s cavalry. Reports indicate most of it it’s opposing the Brazilian left flank, while only a small part of it is in front of the right flank, where the emperor is. Nodding, Pedro takes his telescope and, between the dust, manages to see San Martín, less than a mile in front of him, hurrying to check what’s wrong with his batteries.

-Keep up that fire! We’ll break their lines!

There are no grins in the other side of the battle. Iriarte and San Martín check their gunpowder. Humid and made of a very low quality, it can hardly propel the heavy iron balls. And to add insult to injury, a cannon explodes while it’s servants put to many gunpowder in a effort to hit the Brazilian lines. Calm down, San Martín thinks. Remember, the cool general, always confident. But his insides are burning and a huge load of swores are fighting to get out from his throat. Brazilian artillery fire keeps hitting his forces and he quickly see some short skirmishes… in the rear of his lines. Infantry soldiers are fighting to run away, but kept in check by soldiers in very back who, out of range of the artillery, use their weapons against the comrades in arms to keep the lines together. Another cannon jams and you don’t need a genius to realize that his entire left flank is about to collapse. How he’d like to charge against the enemy’s lines just to release some of his anger! Charge. He quickly gives the order to his messenger, an 11 years old boy with a drum. Drum hits sound and Brandsen understand the order. Cavalry charge, against the Brazilian lines, followed by an infantry charge. Argentinean cavalry reforms and order their horses in a men commanded onslaught, before it’s too late. In front of the Brazilian batteries, the Prussian mercenaries form up, their bayonets held tightly against the incoming riders. A frontal charge against veteran troops, thinks San Martín. He knows they’ll take murderous looses and wonders how many cavalry he’ll have by the end of the battle. New drum hits sound, asking for a report to his right wing. No counter offensive there. Things aren’t going accordingly to plan, but when is that the case in war?

Sergeant Carlos Salinas form up his remaining unwounded blacks as the orders arrive. He finishes loading his gun and, his men now grouped together, they ran towards the Brazilian lines, into the path taken moments ago by cavalry. He’s the only one with a real gun, the remaining soldiers just armed with bayonets that aren’t that much different from a spear. But it doesn’t matter. Guns are imprecise and it’s not training or bravery what keeps these men together. It’s revenge. These are released Brazilian slaves, each single one of them selected as cannon fodder because they weren’t born in America. They were born free in Africa. And he reminds himself the stories he, born from slaves in the province of Entre Rios, heard since childhood to replace with anger his fading courage as he run towards the veteran enemy infantry. These men were born without a master. Until one day were slave trades, both Africans and Europeans, assaulted and razed their villages. Their old friends and relatives, parents, grandparents and uncles were murdered in front of themselves. Women raped publicly. And then, they were taken into long and deadly marches along the jungle, handcuffed and under the cruel whips of terrible traders. Dozens, if not hundreds, died in those marches. Their life-long friends and relatives. And they were forced to walk over their bodies without stopping or slowing down, or else they would be ruthlessly whipped. Once they’ve reached the slave markets and the deadly journey across the sea, they were forever separated from the surviving relatives, never to see them again. And then sold as merchandise to masters who, many, many times, cared very little about increasing their already too much suffering. And Carlos simply wished these blacks would remember that, because the cavalry charge had been rejecting and they were running straight into a bayonet wall.

San Martín, watching how the cavalry charge failed and having little doubts of how those new recruits would fare against veteran mercenaries, requested another update on the situation in his right flank. Again, not the big deal going on there. And then, in despair, he looked as a sizable Brazilian cavalry force flanked from the left to the Argentinean forces, both cavalry and infantry, already engaged in combat with the Prussian mercenaries. Spitting and cursing loudy, he understood. Feints and counterfeits! There was probably never going to be an offensive against his right flank. Amateur tactic, to be sure, as his reserves would crush the Brazilian forces facing them. But would they be in the other side of the battle in time? His entire left flank was about to collapse and, seeing through the telescope; he saw who was leading the Brazilian charge. It was no other than the Brazilian emperor himself.

Sergeant Salinas had thrown himself into battle. Surprisingly his soldiers were still fighting. Losing, yes, but running, hell no. And when those mercenaries stepped back a bit, he thought there might still be hope. He heard it before he saw it: a full cavalry charge going straight to their flank. His men were about to despair. But Carlos knew better. If they ran, they would die. Right now, they had to stick together. How would they do it, untrained as they were, he didn’t know. But wishing he had some of those mercenaries at his command he shouted: “Steady!” Their feet trembling, his men obeyed. Carlos raised his gun, but waited. It was just one bullet. He aimed at the rider with the fanciest uniform. He was about to fire. And then, a Brazilian rider, with just one bullet as well, fired first. As Carlos fell, one of the former slaves took his gun. And in that moment Mabome, born in a wooden hut in Angola, killed Pedro, born in palace in Lisbon.

San Martín had finally called up his reserve, which charged all along the Brazilian lines, trying to relive the compromised left flank. And while that charge had succeeded in routing the Brazilian soldiers along their path, the shock of the dead of Pedro had earned enough time to the Argentinean soldiers to reform their lines. In the end, the battle was a marginal Argentinean victory. The heavy losses and the lack of good horses didn’t allow the Argentinean army to chase the retreating Brazilians while the artillery fiasco implied that San Martín didn’t seek large engagements later on, at least until they could get better, and more expensive, supplies. The news that a released Brazilian slave had killed the emperor himself spread north and south, and stirred quite a few short lived slave rebellions in Brazil. With the River Plate still blockaded and British pressure to lift the blockade, diplomatic missions in both sides reunited to reach an agreement. The financial crisis and political difficulties caused by Pedro’s death didn’t allow the Brazilians to continue the war, while the naval blockade against Argentina had done enough to damage the new Republic’s economy. In the end, fearing further spread of rebellions if the Brazilian army kept fighting to push the Argentineans south and west and agreement was reached in which Brazil recognized the transfer of the Province Cisplatina to Argentina while definitive border agreements in the Eastern Misiones would remain outside the treaty, to be discussed in the future


Do you think a map is needed?
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Gonzaga

Very nice Juan!

I wonder if Brazil will keep the monarchy ITTL now that Pedro is dead. Also, now his brother Miguel will have can more easily become king of Portugal (although I don't know if you want do develop this TL in Europe too or just keep the focus on South America).

maverick said:
Yes! maps are always needed!:D
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Agreed! We want maps!:p
 
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