WI- F-16 cancelled

So, I was thinking earlier today, "What if the F-16 was cancelled, and the Lightweight Fighter mafia failed their mission? Would the Air Force buy more F-15 Eagles? Probably. What would Europe buy? I dunno, I can't remember all the European fighters from that time period at 4:30 in the morning, and why am I up at such an awful hour posing WIs to myself? Anyway, what would air warfare be like today? The Gulf War, for instance?"

So, I decided that my early-morning musings would best be posed to AH.COM.

The situation is, the Air Force has cancelled the F-16 project, after deciding against the F-17? What happens to General Dynamics? Does the Navy still rename the F-17 the F-18 Hornet and buy it? What happens to air warfare? What does the air force do instead? What does Europe do? etc., etc. Etc.

Saab Viggen wank.

There is no reason for the US to stop sales of Saab 37 Viggen so it becomes the 'Eurofighter' of the 70's.

Saab gets so much money that they finish B3LA on their own.
The Gripen project gets delayed 10 years and end up with full stealth, F-22 style.

If the F-16 was cancelled, another low end fighter would have replaced it. The F-15 production wouldn't have increased because it is a high end fighter. A high end fighter like the F-15 and F-22 are generally more diversified and more expensive to make. A low end fighter like the F-16 and F-35 are a bit cheaper to make and its rolls are more limited.

I can tell you, the United States would not buy a foreign aircraft. It would increase our deficit and put us at a disadvantage, look at Iran still waiting for their F-16's from us. It would become a political weapon against us AND why would we buy foreign aircraft when the United States usually has aircraft that is years ahead of other foreign aircraft.

F-5s, perhaps? Taiwan and others used them instead/in addition to F-16s.

There was a F-8 that was build to fly against the F-16 but was not build .

no F-16 ?
a major disaster for US Aerospace Industry !

F-15 are High End Fighter with heavy prisetag
that why USAF wandet the F-16
but wat about F-20 Tigershark and F-17 Cobra in this TL ?

Europe can build selfs a Fighter
like Dassault Mirage 2000
so No F-16 most NATO partner has to buy Mirage 2000 to replace F-104G.
England also ?

Dassault has to build over 4,000 aircraft from 1978
but because Dassault small production capacity,
they have to give part of Prodution to others like MBB, Doriner, Fokker, Aeritalia...

I think that over time in 1980s Dassault and others europ aircraft manufacturer form
a EADS or Airbus S. A. S. like holding.
making them to a Global Player in Aerospace Industry in 1980s

The US Force Structure is determined by Congress, not by the cost of the aircraft in question so I have little doubt that additional F-15s would have been procured. What may have happened to make up the numbers is that older aircraft would have remained in service longer - for example the A-7E would have been modernized and run on while more A-10s may have been built as well.

Internationally, this is a big deal for Northrop. They had a land-based version of the F-18 designated the F-18L that was specifically intended as competition to the F-16. The F-18L was essentially an F-18A with all of its carrier-operation features deleted. It was, by all accounts, a real hot-rod since it was 7,700 pounds lighter than the F-18A. The Shah of Iran was negotiating for about 200 F-18Ls to replace his F-5 fleet when he got deposed. A lot of countries were interested in the F-18L but because the F-16 and F-18A were in US service, the cost of buying the F-18L was disproportionately high compared to those aircraft and they (mostly) opted for the F-16 with some going for the F-18A.

So, if there is no F-16, I think we could see a lot more countries, including probably the whole of NATO, going for the F-18L. Oddly, that may result in the USAF buying it further down the line as a replacement for the older aircraft run on to make up the numbers.

You can find information on the F-18L Here and here

If the F-16 is cancelled, I think we'd have seen a greater variety of fighter types. The Viggen would get export sales, even though I don't think it would be a Viggen-wank. I think the big winners would be Dassault, with the original Mirage F.1E(a Mirage F.1 with the M-53 engine later used on the Mirage 2000), and Lockheed, with the Lancer(the ultimate F-104: http://www.secretprojects.co.uk/forum/index.php/topic,832.0/highlight,lockheed+lancer.html).

A big question is: If the LWF competition is a bust, what happens to the F/A-18? If the Hornet is also axed, what kind of airplane(s) replace the aging F-4s and A-7s? There were some plans for new versions of the A-7(one of them with the F100 engine used on the F-15 and F-16), but I don't see the F-4 line going on for long.

Amerigo Vespucci said:

F-5s, perhaps? Taiwan and others used them instead/in addition to F-16s.

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The F-5 had already been in service for about twenty years by the time the F-16 came along and was basically 50's technology, so I can't see many more being sold, particularly to NATO countries during the 80's.

Presuming the Americans were daft enough to abandon the light weight/low cost fighter market then the slack would have been taken up by others, most notably the Mirage 2000 and the Viggen.

More sales of the Mirage 2000 could have lead to more money going to sell its big brother the Mirage 4000, so not only would Dassualt have commanded the F-16 niche of the aerospace market it could have threatened the F-15's.

It seems quite unlikely that the F-16 would be cancelled. Not only was it far superior to the eventual F/A-18 (so superior, that the only way the Navy convinced Congress to buy it for them was to lean heavy on their dual engine crap) but the USA simply couldn't afford to buy enough F-15s/F-14s in place of not having a cheaper plane.

One could see the F/A-18 cancelled (Congress sensibly tells the Navy to shut up, and use the F-16) and one could see the F-16 delayed a few years becoming a somewhat different plane—but there's no way the USA would simply not make a light fighter sometime around that time period.

Especially once the Europeans start cutting into their export market and the defence corporations lean heavily on Congress.

This is one might what if, this will wreak some serious havoc on the US and European aerospace industry. More than 4000 thousand F-16 models to fill the shoes of! To stop the F-16, the "Reformers" must be stopped as well, which also has its own special butterflies. The Reformers were a group of civilians and officers in the DoD that felt that high technology was crippling the Air Force and a larger number of less sophistacted equipment would perform better. Just as the small, outdated MiGs had so frutrated the mach 2.0 F-105 and F-4 over Vietnam. John Boyd, Pierre Sprey, John Riccioni etc. would have to never get the attention of the Civilian staff in the Department of Defense. Without civilian support they would have never been able to run the Air Combat Fighter program that resulted in the YF-16 and YF-17 or the A-X program that featured the YA-9 and YA-10.

THE FATE OF THE US AEROSPACE CONTRACTORS:

McDonnell Douglas
Without the F-16 stealing production numbers, the F-15 goes on to be produced in larger numbers. However difficulties with the F100 turbofan means the headaches will remain in early service. The nominally "not a pound for ground" F-15A/B sees air to ground weaponry mounted much earlier than in the original timeline. The F-15 becomes the spiritual successful to the F-4, albeit in smaller numbers, and expierenced vast mission creep (air interdiction F-15C/D, reconnaisance F-15E, wild weasel F-15G). Because it was built in such large numbers it becomes cheaper and a more accessable export item. No F-18 Hornet is ever developed, McAir becomes a small player in Naval Aviation after losing the VALX competition (A-7 replacement) to Rockwell's North American division. Marines A/V-8 history stays largely the same as the OTL, but the A-4 soldiers on longer without the introduction of the F-18.
General Dynamics
The Fort Worth division is in a great deal of pain after their Light Weight Fighter concept does not receive funding and the F-111 production line. General Dyanimics scales back the division after failing to win the F-117 contract. Plant 4 is given a second breath of life after the Texas congressional congregation comes through with an order for new F-111H's powered by the F101 engine. They will replace the cancelled B-1A as a regional nuclear bomber and fulfil the Air Force's Enhanced Tactical Fighter requirement to conventionally smash the Red hoard coming across the fulda gap. No original F-15E timeline built.
Northrop
Tries to sell its P-530 design (similar to the YF-17) to foreign militaries but without official US backing its a tough sell. Nortrop then develops an F-5 model with LERXs and wing borrowed from the P-530 in 1978. This F-5G goes on to be a moderate export sucess with nations that had bought the F-5A and other third world venues. No YF-17, F-18L or F-20 in this timeline. The Northrop B-2 history stays the same as the OTL.
Grumman
Without the F-18 being developed, the proposed variable geometry F-4 and navalized F-15 fail to generate enough inertia to reduce F-14 production numbers. The F-14 enters Navy in 1973 and Marine service in 1975. Iran orders 80 F-14Bs in 1976, without having to bail out Grumman this time. Only 40 of the B's are delivered by 1979the F-14s are then purchased by Canada in 1979 after the Iranian revolution. After a string of high profile crashes due to the TF30, in 1976 the F101 Derivative Fighter Engine is funded to re-engine current and future F-14 models on the condition that it will be used in the VALX program. A-6, EA-6, and E-2 keep with the OTL.
Rockwell Internation
The B-1 is never resurrected due to the production of the F-111H in 1978. The Navy instead of focusing on the Sea Control Ship and VTOL aircraft sends out an RFP in 1976 for an single engine A-7 replacement with better attack ability than the A-7 and with speed/agility/IR suppression to avoid enemy sams at low level, the VALX. Rockwell wins this competition with a design that is a air-to-ground oriented HiMat. First flight in 1979 and the A-9A is introduced into the fleet in 1982. Rockwell still plays a major in Space exploration with the Shuttle and Rocketdyne.
Lockheed
Without the A-10 the Army was able to get the AH-56 through a congressional minefield and put into production. It proves to be very popular with pilots and Army brass but questions about survivability linger, production continues through the 1980s. Lockheed is also successful in attempts to get the X-27 funded for high speed test research. In Lockheed sets up co-production agreements with some of the original F-104 consortium and Asian nationas like Taiwan and Korea to build the CL-1200 Lancer. The Lancers are know for their phenomal acceleration and deadly slash attacks with ASRAAMs and AMRAAMs. It is given the designation "F-16" after a handful are bought by the US as agressors. F-117 development stays as it did in the OTL.
Vought
A-7E production is extended to meet fleet demand until the A-9 is introduced. However, Vought ceases to be a primary aviation contractor after losing the VALX program. The A-7D is never dethroned from the top of TAC air's CAS heep by the A-10 and continues to serve on with distinction. In 1982 the USAF contracts Vought to rebuild 400 A-7A/B/Ds into A-7F Strikefighters after the concerns of the survivability of non-afterburning aircraft are aired. The A-7F uses the F100 turbofans, more fuel added by a fuselage stretch, a modifed wing for shorter take offs, and a head mounted sight system slewed to the radar and targeting pod. This is Vought aircraft's last production model.
Fairchild-Republic
Without the A-10 and the loss of the F-15 contract, Fairchild closes the Republic division on Long Island and does subcontracting work for the civilian aerospace industry.
Boeing
Largely unaffected since its LWF candidate never made it to the final round and did not win any other major airframe contracts. Continues with its missile and helicopter divisions.
Hughes
The AH-64 is arrises due to the survival of the AH-56. Hughes Helicopters also looses out to Sikorsky's entry in the UH-60 competition, and focuses more on the civilian market but is never sold to McDonnell Douglas. AIMVAL/ACEVAL never takes place and the AIM-95 goes into joint service after much cost overruns in 1978. The AMRAAM ends up being a larger sparrow sized weapon with greater range. The miniturization problems ran into by the original AIM-120 are less of a problem and the missile enters service in 1986. The AGM-124 WASP survives the axe and goes into production in 1987.
Pratt and Whitney
Continues providing engines for the F-15 and A-7 after receiving much antagonism from the Air Force over the F100 program. They straighten up after the F101 threatens their market share.
General Electric
F404 is never developed, instead replaced by a high bypass YJ101 which goes on to power the F-5G, Grippen and F-117. The F101 becomes a successful fighter engine when introduced into the F-14 and goes on to power the F-111H, Lancer, the VALX.

I'll be foreign aerospace and export in depth later.

The F20 tigershark may become the US export fighter of choice outside of Europe. Inside Europe I think the F18, M2000, Viggen and Tornado would take up much of the slack. I don't know what the USAF would do.

wiki F-20 Tigershark said:

The aircraft became part of a US Department of Defense aircraft export project developed during a general re-working of U.S. military export policy started under the Carter administration. The program, FX, was put in place to produce a new fighter design that could be exported to U.S. allies without the possibility of advanced US technology falling into Soviet hands in the case of a change of government. Although Northrop had high hopes for the F-20 in the international market, changes in policy led to loosened restrictions on US military exports in the 1980s that left it competing with front line fighters like the F-16 Fighting Falcon.

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So it's F-20 Tigershark for most allies IMHO, especially the smaller NATO countries. Majority of Europe, especially again the smaller NATO countries, has been flying around in American jets, not European ones.
Unless EU and an EU military get's a sudden boost, nobody who's been flying satisfactory in American jets going to switch for a perhaps less reliable European (French) supplier. Also

The Americans probably do a mix of buying more F-15s and some F-18(L)s, maybe less than originally F-16s were bought.
If the Americans don't continue to improve and build whatever comes instead of the F-16, you might see an earlier JSF, although less advanced?

FlyingDutchman said:

The Americans probably do a mix of buying more F-15s and some F-18(L)s, maybe less than originally F-16s were bought.

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If the US isn't making the F-16, there's no way they make the F/A-18—a plane inferior to the F-16 in pretty much every conceivable way.

The only reason the F/A-18 was made is because the Navy lied their asses off to Congress, and Congress wasn't smart enough to tell them to shut up.

The two-engine thing was the Navy's main argument, and that was garbage. The F-16's single engine is one of the most reliable ever made, and (if I recall correctly) generates more thrust than the Hornet anyway.

Perhaps a navalized Falcon would have been good, or perhaps not, but the Hornet sucks regardless.

Even Spanish Hornets (i.e. with much of their carrier stuff removed) are no match for Falcons, although much better than USN Hornets.



No F-16 means no F/A-18 which probably means the F-20 sees overseas success and a few years down the road the US is forced to make and build a light fighter as they can't afford the number of F-15s they'd otherwise need (and the Navy's A-7s are old).

Yes it is highly likely that the F-20 would have seen a lot of sales overseas and the congress might have forced the Air Force to buy it. It would be a natural buy for many overseas customers who had already purchased the F-5.
It is even possible that the F-17 might have been developed.