WI the Soviets had modern computers?

I'm not sure if this should go in here or ASB, but anyway....

What if the Soviets had modern computers? They would be tremendous assets to managing any centrally planned economy. Would they have managed to keep it going for longer? Possibly even survive permanently?

You still don't get a working planed economy. It wasn't like the problem had anything to do with something a computer would fix. Sure, they could put numbers into a computer instead of their huge planing burocracy but the numbers would be wrong anyway, for the same reason the numbers where wrong in OTL Soviet. And the computers could communicate with each other, if they had a decent telecom system but so could the burocrats.

The burocrats wasn't stupid, it wasn't there the problem lied.

Sure, they could sell their computers but I bet bad quality control would have put an end to it. They could use it in their technology but I think the planning would be a problem there too.

It might help the disidents but IIRC they had some cool stuff, including fax machines anyway.

Or did you mean modern as in 2008 computers?

Does the average citizens have a computer or just the bureaucrats in the Kremlin? Are we talking computers as we know them today or are we talking about word processers and pre-internet computers?

Berra said:

You still don't get a working planed economy. It wasn't like the problem had anything to do with something a computer would fix. Sure, they could put numbers into a computer instead of their huge planing burocracy but the numbers would be wrong anyway, for the same reason the numbers where wrong in OTL Soviet. And the computers could communicate with each other, if they had a decent telecom system but so could the burocrats.

The burocrats wasn't stupid, it wasn't there the problem lied.

Sure, they could sell their computers but I bet bad quality control would have put an end to it. They could use it in their technology but I think the planning would be a problem there too.

It might help the disidents but IIRC they had some cool stuff, including fax machines anyway.

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Yes and no. To most people who study the problem Communism does seem to have some basic flaws vis-a-vis human nature. However, on second glance, a lot of these are often just due to our own capitalist prejudices. A person brought up under communism, while he/she might still be ambitious, would not be ambitious in the same way, or for the same things.

And the only real proven lack, according to the Austrian School of Economics, is that communism lacks a pricing system, Smith's 'Invisible Hand' which allocates things pretty much according to need, or at least desire. Doing it any other way is so complicated that it's well-nigh impossible. Except for computers.

It seems to me that modern computers must be more effective than having thousands of bureaucrats with millions of peices of paper trying to calculate the whole thing.

The system will still have flaws but it is likely to be more efficient than it was in OTL.

I think even with modern computers the Soviets will be behind the West because the West also has access to modern computers. It's computers that allow Just-in-time inventory and such like.

That was pretty much Gorbachev's plan.

Earling said:

It seems to me that modern computers must be more effective than having thousands of bureaucrats with millions of peices of paper trying to calculate the whole thing.

The system will still have flaws but it is likely to be more efficient than it was in OTL.

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It isn't going to change anything, the biggest problem with the Soviet bureacracy was not size or output, but that the information they build their planning after was incorrect, industri in the USSR basic produced less than they told the central adminstration. If you want to make the planned economy survive you got to improve the central powercenter control over the periphery, and improver their information gathering. Of course this isn't going to make them survive in the long run but it could give them decades extra.

NapoleonXIV said:

Doing it any other way is so complicated that it's well-nigh impossible. Except for computers.

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I think you put to much faith in computers. And the imput into the system.

But how did you plan to solve the problem. Any soviet citizen point and click on a gigant list of stuff they want in the future and then some super computer solve it?

I've seen an estimate (but I can't remember for my dear life where did I see it) that computing power should be 100 to 1000 times more than supercomputers today in order to made adequate palns for the "enterprise" the size of Soviet economy. Complexity of planning grows exponentionally with number of items being planned.

That being said, workforce of IBM, Toyota or GE is comparable in size to workforce of some smaller countries, and those companies don't do too badly. So it MAY be possible, after all, that planned economy will overcome market-based in effectiveness.

So, if the Soviets started their Skynet counterpart, would it have aided the rebel/reprogrammed bots in the Sarah O'Connor Terminator Chronicles?

(As off topic as soviet computers get I guess).

But, seriously, if Soviets had modern computers, and these modern computers have been touted as having half the capacity of a mouse's brain, who cares? It needs both sides of the input-output proccess, without actual humans running them, who knows what the possiblities are.

Perhaps, with computers, finger-pointing and practical evidence for corruption and other crimes against the state would be much more common, and the people actually get their paradise after the massive institution of crazy soviet RFIDs?

The POD would be someone similar to Gorbachev or Andropov, in the 1980's realizing that Communism will fail, but wanting it to succeed. Not, someone wanting to do a Deng Shiu Ping style market reform, but to actually keep Communism going. That would describe both Gorbachev and Andropov. Andropov didn't have the time or energy to try it, and Gorbachev didn't have the competence.

What were the fundamental structural failures of the USSR, circa 1980?
Corruption, inefficiency and reduced living standards compared to the West, with WW2 being far in the past and besides not being a reason why West Germany was so far ahead of all of Eastern Europe. Also lack of quality in production, and production that didn't match demand due to lack of market-based pricing mechanisms.

If they decided on thorough reforms, computers could have played an important part. For production, learn from Japan. They had large enterprises that figured out how to have ever increasing quality using careful measurement, statistical analysis, and input from all employees on how to increase quality. In principal, the USSR could have used the same methods and given bonuses to factories based upon their results.

Accurate information was a critical ingredient. Here is where the KGB could have been used. Make entering incorrect data into the computer network a serious crime. Make that their entire function, plus trying to get Western technology.

For distribution, again, accurate, timely record keeping, would enable central planners to fine tune production and prices.

They didn't need advanced computers, just a lot of circa 1980's computers connected by network, providing useful data for technicians to analyze.

I don't think anyone seems to get my point:

If the Soviets have modern computers they would still be also-rans compared to the West, because the West has integrated modern computing into the capitalist system.

It's like one person has 500 dollars and the other has 1000 dollars. If you both give them an equal amount of money, the second person is still going to be 500 dollars richer no matter what.

Maybe so, but if the guy with $500 less invests it correctly...