WI: German Poland
- Thread starter Kvasir
- Start date
Valdemar II
Banned
It would hurt Polish nationalisme without a restorestant under the Napoleons War, a lot of the structures which keept the Polish language and culture alive was created in that period. The Poles in Prussia are likely to be assimilated while I imagine what the Austrian Poles would begin to identify themselves as Galicians instead, while the Russian Poles will be assimilated into the local East Slavic culture.
Susano
Banned
Well it wouldnt exactly be German Poland, but a truly divided Poland. Most likely, according to original partition treaties, no side will take up the title of a King of Poland, so there will be really no Polish entity at all.
However, how could it come to that? After all, at the end of the Napoleonic Wars Russia was a military leviathan - had the Brits and Prussians lost at Waterloo, then the giantic Russian army would have made short work with Napoleon shortly afterwards. Which meant Russia could pressure Europe. So either we have to avoid Napoleon, or terribly weaken Russia at just the right moment.
However, how could it come to that? After all, at the end of the Napoleonic Wars Russia was a military leviathan - had the Brits and Prussians lost at Waterloo, then the giantic Russian army would have made short work with Napoleon shortly afterwards. Which meant Russia could pressure Europe. So either we have to avoid Napoleon, or terribly weaken Russia at just the right moment.
But the vast majority of the Poles would be under Austria and Prussia... Maybe a more accurate Title would be appropriate.
Well, how about Russia and France end up in even worse positions than historically after the war? So when France is destroyed Russia is in no position demand any more of Poland than it got after the third partition?
But even better would be if France was stopped before it had the power to have any say on the status of Poland.
The other option is what Napoleonic Wars? I.e. somehow butterflying the French revolution or at least any major conflict developing from it.
In that case the big loses would probably be Prussia. It is now as much Polish as German and Warsaw is its most important city. Although the Poles are very much subordinate this will make it difficult for the state to become the core of a German state. It may even come apart under the tensions.
Steve
In that case the big loses would probably be Prussia. It is now as much Polish as German and Warsaw is its most important city. Although the Poles are very much subordinate this will make it difficult for the state to become the core of a German state. It may even come apart under the tensions.
Steve
Susano
Banned
Uh, no. The Prussian border ended just behind Warscaw. While Prussia and Austria did get the more popolous lands, its not like Russia only got wasteland. Besides, the west was evenly split between Prussia and Austria, so who would get that title?
The clause in the treaty made sense: If somebody claimed the title, they could also try to claim all formerly Polish lands, something the three partition powers obviously have no interest in.
Yes, those are the two possibilities. Of course, both would have far more farreahcing consequences, especially the latter: A prematurely contained or ended Frech revolution will change all of Europe.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/30/Rzeczpospolita_Rozbiory_3.png This map shows that most of modern Poland is split between Austria and Prussia, though I agree Russia contains parts. And I wasn't suggesting someone claim the title king of Poland.
Agreed, any number of things could happen. Lets say with minimum changes to the OTL, the Third Partition of Poland's borders remain. What are the consequences and effects.
Susano
Banned
It doesnt quite work that way. We kinda have to specifiy how it came about. But going with teh "Russia is for some reason temporarily crippled at the end of the Napoleonic Era" (plague, famine, whatever) should allow it with indeed a minimum of other changes.
Now what happens? Short of butterlfy effects not much. If 1848 (or the equoivalent) suceeds, we might see unified democratic Germany establishing an independant Poland (but going by how far of Posen they were willing to let go IOTL, no way with all Polish settled lands), but if it as IOTL fails, and Germany continues as IOTL, then Prussian Poland will become part of the German Empire (just as Posen IOTL), while Austrian Poland will stay part of Austria(-Hungary), just as Galicia IOTL. So, yeah, little change.
But a lot happened between the end of the 18th century and the start of the 20th century. Would Prussia and Austria do things differently than Russia? How would the Poles respond to been split between 3 nations? Would we see a large nationalistic movement? Would they drain the Prussian military? More or less railroads? What about all the raw materials found in the new lands? More industry? How would the increased number of Poles affect Austria? Would relations with Russia be better or worse? If there is an Austro-Prussian war, what would the fighting be like in Poland? Would Prussia be tempted to do some land grabbing?
Susano
Banned
Oh, relationships between the three powers should even be better this way, as they certainly will cooperate to prevent Polish uprisings. Though, OTOH not enough to reconcile Prussia and Austria, who inevitably will clash over at leats influence in Germany...
...heh. Assuming, of course, Prussia stays a Great Power. Prussia keeping all its parts of Poland means it doesnt need to be compensated, with the Rhineland. Who gets the Rhineland is anybodys guess, but at least most if not all of the Ruhr Area (depending on Westphalia...) would ITTL not be Prussian. Sure, Prussia still has the Ruhr's smaller brother, Upper Silesia, but still, comparedto IOTL Prussia will hence ironically be less powerful once teh Industrial Revolution kicks in.
...heh. Assuming, of course, Prussia stays a Great Power. Prussia keeping all its parts of Poland means it doesnt need to be compensated, with the Rhineland. Who gets the Rhineland is anybodys guess, but at least most if not all of the Ruhr Area (depending on Westphalia...) would ITTL not be Prussian. Sure, Prussia still has the Ruhr's smaller brother, Upper Silesia, but still, comparedto IOTL Prussia will hence ironically be less powerful once teh Industrial Revolution kicks in.
Agreed. Russia/Prussia relations will probably be much better, but that would sour relations with Britain later. Would the Prussians take Austrian land in this Scenario?
I don't think extra parts of Poland is equivalent to the Rhineland. Perhaps they get all of Saxony? Does Saxony + Extra Poland = Rhineland?
What? Poland (and Poles) were historically split between those three nations.
Susano
Banned
They already took 2/3 of Saxony IOTL. The Rhineland plus 2/3 of Saxony was deemed compensation for the lost parts of Poland. Really, if they dont lose their parts of Poland, they wont get the Rhineland!
He asks if keeping the bits of Poland lost in OTL and gaining all of Saxony (IE, the last third as well) would be seen as equal to gaining the Rhineland.
Susano
Banned
Yes, but my point is it wasnt really seen as Prusisa gaining something, it was truthfully seen as Prussia being compensated. And with Prussia compensated so much, one can see how valuable their Polish territories were deemed. If they dint lose them, hey wont get much further land.
The irony is that those lands will, comparatively, lose in value, whereas the Rhineland (at least the Ruhr) would gain massively in value. So OTL, Prussia had plain luck. ITTL, not.
Part of the reason Saxony got treated so badly was that its monarch stayed loyal to Napoleon longer than most other German states. This could be butterflied away in the changed circumstances. Alternatively you could see all of Saxony annexed to Prussia and the Saxon dynasty end up with Rhineland-Westphalia. [With their willingness to convert to Catholicism this might be a better fit than the land being under Russian rule].
Steve
Susano
Banned
That could work, though territory-wise the Saxon Kings would hence up with moe land then before. Well, maybe soem restrictiosn on them and reperations to be paid from the enw land... the Saxon Electros had always claimed all of the Cleve Inheritance (which had been split between Prussia and Palatinate-Neuburg), so they had the tiotles of Duke of Jülich, Berg, Cleve etc. in their titulatory without having any territory only near them. With them gaining the Rhineland the titles would finally fit
Valdemar II
Banned
That could work, though territory-wise the Saxon Kings would hence up with moe land then before. Well, maybe soem restrictiosn on them and reperations to be paid from the enw land... the Saxon Electros had always claimed all of the Cleve Inheritance (which had been split between Prussia and Palatinate-Neuburg), so they had the tiotles of Duke of Jülich, Berg, Cleve etc. in their titulatory without having any territory only near them. With them gaining the Rhineland the titles would finally fit
But you have to admit it would turn out be a good trade for the Saxon kings. But It could sabotage the creation of a united Germany, especially of the Klein Deutschland solution, with a Prussia (and Austria) banished to the periphery of the German Confederation with large non-German minorities.