America wins ARW in 1777

danwild6 · Feb 19, 2008

POD

At the Battle of Brandywine on Sept. 11 1777 Washington decisively defeats Gen. Howe cutting him off from the head of elk and blocking his advance toward the Delaware.

For farther reading on the battle

http://www.wtj.com/articles/brandywine/

So what we have is Yorktown 4 years earlier, but we don't have Valley Forge, or a Franco-American alliance. What happens next?

Jasen777 · Feb 19, 2008

I don't think the British would be ready to give up yet.

Glen · Feb 19, 2008

danwild6 said:
POD

At the Battle of Brandywine on Sept. 11 1777 Washington decisively defeats Gen. Howe cutting him off from the head of elk and blocking his advance toward the Delaware.

For farther reading on the battle

http://www.wtj.com/articles/brandywine/

So what we have is Yorktown 4 years earlier, but we don't have Valley Forge, or a Franco-American alliance. What happens next?

Hmmm....

"Some time between noon and one o'clock, a Major Joseph Spear of the militia arrived at Sullivan's headquarters and reported that he had just returned from a morning reconnaissance along the Great Valley Road without detecting any sign of the British. The major was, indeed, "confident they are not in that Quarter." How Spear had contrived to miss any sign of Howe's column, marching along this very route, has never been determined. Sullivan was suspicious of the report and hesitated before sending it along to Washington, understanding it might mean an end to the attack on Knyphausen. If, however, Howe's move up the Great Valley Road was only a feint followed by a countermarch back to Chad's Ford, Washington's planned attack across the creek might well end in disaster. Sullivan sent the report and Washington called off the attack."

Seems like only a minor POD would be necessary to have Major Spear (or someone in his stead) discover Howe's column. Better reconnaissance could make the difference between victory and defeat.

Now then, this battle in and of itself would likely not end the war itself, but you can imagine a sort of snowballing of events conspiring to end the war more quickly.

One thing you might see instead of an end to the War in 1777 is the earlier entry of France into the war with the start of a string of victories for the Americans.

DuQuense · Feb 20, 2008

At this point the British have suffered a series of minor but humiliating defeats, except for the battle of Long Island.
Tensions in Parliament are running high, then comes this news of a major defeat. Parliament is ready to Quit. ?But how about George?
Lets assume He is persuaded to accept, and the war is over.

The Spanish never entered the war, so they haven't taken the Florida Panhandle.
IIRC American Naval Forces are sitting in the Bahamas.
George Washington hasn't gotten his Nickname "Burner of Towns" Yet.
His other nickname "Father of our Country" still refers to his Sleeping Habits, and not his Military Victories.
The dislike of the Loyalists is not as Vicious yet, so fewer of then will end in Canada.
Whe have less shared suffering,
Several of the large states have yet to cede there western claims, so the AoC is less likely to be Adopted.
OTOH the American economy is less rundown, Fewer Continentals floating around.

mattw101 · Feb 20, 2008

I'd say that bigger setbacks earlier on would make the British more determined to commit troops and money towards winning.

67th Tigers · Feb 20, 2008

To do this you'd need to get rid of Washington, he was repeatedly warned of the British turning movement, yet chose to ignore it.

In fact some pretty major changes need to occur, given the absolute crapness of the Whigs in this battle. It's an easy one to POD the complete destruction of Washingtons Main Army. You might be able to have the Whigs do a bit better, but the destruction of Howe?

danwild6 · Feb 20, 2008

Glen said:
Now then, this battle in and of itself would likely not end the war itself, but you can imagine a sort of snowballing of events conspiring to end the war more quickly.

One thing you might see instead of an end to the War in 1777 is the earlier entry of France into the war with the start of a string of victories for the Americans.

Well Brandywine came only a week before the first battle at Freeman's Farm(Saratoga). So France would still enter at about the same time. But the situation would probably be worse for the British, as the main army(unlike at Yorktown)would have been lost in addition to the northern Army under Bourgoyne.

danwild6 · Feb 20, 2008

DuQuense said:
At this point the British have suffered a series of minor but humiliating defeats, except for the battle of Long Island.
Tensions in Parliament are running high, then comes this news of a major defeat. Parliament is ready to Quit. ?But how about George?
Lets assume He is persuaded to accept, and the war is over.

Well George wasn't even willing to accept defeat after Yorktown. He was willing to abdicate after the government broke with him on ending the war.

The Spanish never entered the war, so they haven't taken the Florida Panhandle.

In OTL Britain wanted the US to get west Florida. America even tried too convince Britain to retake west Florida before the final peace.

IIRC American Naval Forces are sitting in the Bahamas.

In OTL Spain traded the Bahamas for east Florida the American can do the same here.

George Washington hasn't gotten his Nickname "Burner of Towns" Yet.
His other nickname "Father of our Country" still refers to his Sleeping Habits, and not his Military Victories.

OKay Washington may or may not be as idolized today in TTL as in OTL.

The dislike of the Loyalists is not as Vicious yet, so fewer of then will end in Canada.

Okay good an America thats much more friendlier to Great Britain

Whe have less shared suffering,

Always a good thing

Several of the large states have yet to cede there western claims, so the AoC is less likely to be Adopted.

True, though the states were moving towards this by then, by 1779 New York and another state(can't remember which)were the only hold outs.

OTOH the American economy is less rundown, Fewer Continentals floating around.

Perhaps no bank of North America

danwild6 · Feb 20, 2008

67th Tigers said:
To do this you'd need to get rid of Washington, he was repeatedly warned of the British turning movement, yet chose to ignore it.

Well you could have field command given to a more capable general should one be available. But without Washington America ends up British again anyways.

In fact some pretty major changes need to occur, given the absolute crapness of the Whigs in this battle.

Well actually like Glen stated you only need a minor POD as in OTL Washington was setting the very action I'm suggesting in motion. It should be noted that the American fought fairly well in this battle compared to others. It is often, incorrectly, stated as a repeat of Long Island, while the Americans were surprised on both occasions at Brandywine the main Army stood and fought unlike at Long Island.

It's an easy one to POD the complete destruction of Washingtons Main Army. You might be able to have the Whigs do a bit better, but the destruction of Howe?

No that ends the revolution right there.

Hyperion · Feb 20, 2008

I've noticed something that none of you seem to know about. Saratoga takes place less than two weeks after Brandywine.

A British defeat at Brandywine, coupled with a disaster at Saratoga, could very well drive the British to the negotiating table a lot sooner.

WCDouglas · Feb 20, 2008

How about we make this a less major POD.

Washington reacts to the flanking, the Continential Army stands it ground but is forced back in good order and contuines to block Howe's line of march to Philadelphia. How Howe is forced to decide just how many casulities he's welling to give for Philadelphia, against what is starting to look a european (abed a 2nd rate) army. Add this to the events of winter, when Washington proves himself an unconventitonal stragist (opposing commands hate those almost more than being outnumbered.)

So (POD) Howe decides to adandon the Philadelphia line, either turns and heads of Annapolis or goes back to New York (far to late to salvage anything from the Canda-Hudson campaign). Afterall Howe is a Bunker Hill witness, and a Whig (and early war opposer). Routing Washignton around New York and taking New York hasn't worked, would a grinding campaign to take the capital?

So as has been state France enter at the same time BUT prehaps with real force far quicker. And Howe eventfuly has to abandon Annapolis and return to New York (if he haven't already) makse for a far more Public defeat (British run for New York because the French are coming than the OTL withdrawal accross New Jersey.

I think in this scenerio the war ends (all of about give the Whigs (the Fox brothers my favorite British pols) enough to bring down the government) and peace comes in late 1778, early 79, sorry not 77. I suspect the big impact would be less justification for US team in Paris to demand the west terrorities. AND less credit to France, and a quicker healling between the US and Britain.

** One note, Bendict Arnold ends up the 2nd greatest American, Commander of the Army when Washington turns in his sword (2nd greatest moment in American history)

Glen · Feb 20, 2008

DuQuense said:
At this point the British have suffered a series of minor but humiliating defeats, except for the battle of Long Island.
Tensions in Parliament are running high, then comes this news of a major defeat. Parliament is ready to Quit. ?But how about George?
Lets assume He is persuaded to accept, and the war is over.

Okay.

The Spanish never entered the war, so they haven't taken the Florida Panhandle.

True! British Florida lives!!

IIRC American Naval Forces are sitting in the Bahamas.

As in occupying??

George Washington hasn't gotten his Nickname "Burner of Towns" Yet.

Well, that one didn't really stand up to the passage of time, so its rather irrelevant I'd say.

His other nickname "Father of our Country" still refers to his Sleeping Habits, and not his Military Victories.

Sleeping habits?

The dislike of the Loyalists is not as Vicious yet, so fewer of then will end in Canada.

Hmmm...so no Upper and Lower Canada?

Whe have less shared suffering,

True.

Several of the large states have yet to cede there western claims, so the AoC is less likely to be Adopted.

How far does the US extend west, I wonder.

OTOH the American economy is less rundown, Fewer Continentals floating around.

For what its worth, yeah.

Glen · Feb 20, 2008

danwild6 said:
Well Brandywine came only a week before the first battle at Freeman's Farm(Saratoga). So France would still enter at about the same time. But the situation would probably be worse for the British, as the main army(unlike at Yorktown)would have been lost in addition to the northern Army under Bourgoyne.

Okay, good points.

Glen · Feb 20, 2008

danwild6 said:
Well George wasn't even willing to accept defeat after Yorktown. He was willing to abdicate after the government broke with him on ending the war.

And yet he did accept it in the end, and did not abdicate.

In OTL Britain wanted the US to get west Florida. America even tried too convince Britain to retake west Florida before the final peace.

Why did they want that? Or was it just that they didn't want the Spanish to get it? I assume here, however, that there is no need for the British to lose Florida at all.

In OTL Spain traded the Bahamas for east Florida the American can do the same here.

What, the US trades the Bahamas for East Florida? Okay, I guess that would be likely...

OKay Washington may or may not be as idolized today in TTL as in OTL.

Well, assume a report of a column marching against him would wake him up, presumably he'd do well also.

Hmmm...this was before Benedict Arnold turned, right?

Okay good an America thats much more friendlier to Great Britain

Chummyish US/UK, eh?

Always a good thing

Not necessarily. The lack of shared struggle might make for less cohesion of the independent states than we saw OTL.

True, though the states were moving towards this by then, by 1779 New York and another state(can't remember which)were the only hold outs.

Okay.

Perhaps no bank of North America

Why again?

Glen · Feb 20, 2008

danwild6 said:
Well you could have field command given to a more capable general should one be available. But without Washington America ends up British again anyways.

Not necessarily. But I think the important thing is getting it moving along.

Well actually like Glen stated you only need a minor POD as in OTL Washington was setting the very action I'm suggesting in motion. It should be noted that the American fought fairly well in this battle compared to others. It is often, incorrectly, stated as a repeat of Long Island, while the Americans were surprised on both occasions at Brandywine the main Army stood and fought unlike at Long Island.

Yeah. I've actually been to the Brandywine battlesite, btw.

Glen · Feb 20, 2008

Hyperion said:
I've noticed something that none of you seem to know about. Saratoga takes place less than two weeks after Brandywine.

A British defeat at Brandywine, coupled with a disaster at Saratoga, could very well drive the British to the negotiating table a lot sooner.

Actually mentioned a little before this, but you were darned close, and in all fairness I totally forgot about it.

Then again, I say like twenty-something patients today, so I'm a little fuzzy minded....

Glen · Feb 20, 2008

WCDouglas said:
How about we make this a less major POD.

Why?

Washington reacts to the flanking, the Continential Army stands it ground but is forced back in good order and contuines to block Howe's line of march to Philadelphia. How Howe is forced to decide just how many casulities he's welling to give for Philadelphia, against what is starting to look a european (abed a 2nd rate) army. Add this to the events of winter, when Washington proves himself an unconventitonal stragist (opposing commands hate those almost more than being outnumbered.)

So (POD) Howe decides to adandon the Philadelphia line, either turns and heads of Annapolis or goes back to New York (far to late to salvage anything from the Canda-Hudson campaign). Afterall Howe is a Bunker Hill witness, and a Whig (and early war opposer). Routing Washignton around New York and taking New York hasn't worked, would a grinding campaign to take the capital?

So as has been state France enter at the same time BUT prehaps with real force far quicker. And Howe eventfuly has to abandon Annapolis and return to New York (if he haven't already) makse for a far more Public defeat (British run for New York because the French are coming than the OTL withdrawal accross New Jersey.

I think in this scenerio the war ends (all of about give the Whigs (the Fox brothers my favorite British pols) enough to bring down the government) and peace comes in late 1778, early 79, sorry not 77.

Why not mid 1778?

I suspect the big impact would be less justification for US team in Paris to demand the west terrorities.

Why is that? I'm not arguing against it, just asking? The Americans are having a bit more luck in battle compared to OTL. Especially if you still drag it out as long as you do, why wouldn't they demand and get the Western territories?

AND less credit to France, and a quicker healling between the US and Britain.

Maybe...probably.

** One note, Bendict Arnold ends up the 2nd greatest American, Commander of the Army when Washington turns in his sword (2nd greatest moment in American history)

Probably. I could see Benedict Arnold being considered a great American and having a significant political career (though he doesn't seem to have been that popular with the Continental Congress, I suppose...).

67th Tigers · Feb 21, 2008

danwild6 said:
Well you could have field command given to a more capable general should one be available. But without Washington America ends up British again anyways.

It never stopped being "British" it merely stopped having the same government, but I digress.

I fail to see why removing Washington would not be a good thing. A more competent commander could have avoided some of the disasters that befell the Whig Army.

Well actually like Glen stated you only need a minor POD as in OTL Washington was setting the very action I'm suggesting in motion. It should be noted that the American fought fairly well in this battle compared to others. It is often, incorrectly, stated as a repeat of Long Island, while the Americans were surprised on both occasions at Brandywine the main Army stood and fought unlike at Long Island.

but not well. Washington was simply lucky not to have been destroyed on that day, and most of that luck was in having a fairly competent commander on the right flank

Dean_the_Young · Feb 21, 2008

67th Tigers said:
It never stopped being "British" it merely stopped having the same government, but I digress.

I fail to see why removing Washington would not be a good thing. A more competent commander could have avoided some of the disasters that befell the Whig Army.

Militarily, you might have a point (though there are plenty of worse ways to run a grand strategy than to try and keep your fragile army alive). But politically, I disagree. Another officer, for example, might not have turned down and chastised an offer for kingship by his army.

Nicomacheus · Feb 21, 2008

Well, I would say that if the Revolution ends earlier and with a very easy war from the colonists' stand point, then we may be left with 13 independent polities after the revolution, without even the AoC. Also, the enormous national debt will have been lessened. Valley Forge will not have instilled in the Continental Army and Washington the need for a powerful central government. Without this, we don't get to the Constitution of 1787 as we know it.