Taiwan still part of Japan

*this might be a bit implausible*

What if after WWII Japan keeps Tiawan or at least following American occupation of the island it's returned to Japan?

Highly improbable

I don't think that would happen as Taiwan was a relatively new conquest and addition to the Empire of Japan. Even if the Chinese under Chiang Kai-Shek didn't flee there I can't see the Japanese keeping the island after the war.

Bulldawg85 said:

I don't think that would happen as Taiwan was a relatively new conquest and addition to the Empire of Japan. Even if the Chinese under Chiang Kai-Shek didn't flee there I can't see the Japanese keeping the island after the war.

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I dunno.

I think it's unlikely, but a Japanese Taiwan wouldn't necessarily have been unpopular on the island; and it's not like the situation after 1945 was much better for its inhabitants...

Faeelin said:

I think it's unlikely, but a Japanese Taiwan wouldn't necessarily have been unpopular on the island; and it's not like the situation after 1945 was much better for its inhabitants...

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Good point. There was a saying at the time, "The dogs have left, but the pigs have arrived." And the brutal repression that followed the Feb. 28 incident in 1947 shows that the Nationalists were neither more popular nor more restrained than the Japanese. So I agree with you that the inhabitants of Taiwan wouldn't necessarily have disliked the idea of remaining part of a post-war, democratic Japan.

If Taiwan remained part of Japan after 1945 what would be the fate of the KMT during the Chinese Civil War? If they are exterminated and the PRC come to power, will there be a conflict with Japan over the island?

David M. said:

If Taiwan remained part of Japan after 1945 what would be the fate of the KMT during the Chinese Civil War? If they are exterminated and the PRC come to power, will there be a conflict with Japan over the island?

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One option for them would be to fall back to Hainan.

And it's likely that both the Nationalists and the Communists would claim Taiwan, though perhaps in a more symbolic way than in OTL, since it would be considered foreign-annexed territory rather than a renegade province.

To keep Taiwan Japanese the US supported Nationalists would have to be doing much worse on the mainland.

If the Communists did better throughout WWII and by 1945 are threatening to take all of China I imagine the US might keep the Japanese Empire alive as a buffer zone against the Commie tide. This would mean, I guess, a Japan that keeps Taiwan and possibly Korea, a Japan that is rearmed, but also a Japan where the US spend more time remaking their culture (instead of, as IOTL, abandoning the job halfway).

I can't see any other reason that the US would let the Japanese keep Taiwan.

I can see the USA seeing Mao's forces being a problem early, and building bases on Taiwan. They hold the island for a while, which allows the KMT to move to Taiwan after Mao's victory, but the KMT's actions convince the populace that being part of democratic, rapidly growing Japan would be a better option. Hence, when the USA hands off Taiwan in the early 1970s (at the same time as Okinawa) Taiwan becomes a handful of Japanese prefectures.

Keeping Taiwan under Japanese control is doable, but not easy. One suggestion I'd make is to have the left wing of the KMT win out in China, and have Korea go Red, so the U.S. seeks a stronger Japan after the war.

Biggest problem is that the Cario Conference in Decembre 1943, decided to return Taiwan along with the other parts of Japanese conquered China.

DuQuense said:

Biggest problem is that the Cario Conference in Decembre 1943, decided to return Taiwan along with the other parts of Japanese conquered China.

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Decided but yet to sign any treaty.

Since the Qing Dynasty, Taiwan had been considered a remote offshore island with no significance to mainland empire, until the western power knocked the front gate with battleships, from the sea.

Only at the last ten years of Qing's 212 year ruling, China decided to make Taiwan a province, shipping some outdated coastal guns, unwanted railway tracks, to strengthen Taiwan as China's front line.

Even so, after 1895's defeat, China conveniently gave away Taiwan for it's insignificance, left Japan an island, with railway not much operable (later torn down and rebuilt by Japanese), no public roads, only trails for walk. Along with other horrible ancient basic facilities.

Huge contrast to China's rule, at the very first year of Japan's landing, anthropologists, geologists, engineers, sent to advance together with Imperial Army, doing research on their new territory, some of them face extreme danger, for natives resist stubbornly.

Within one year, colonial law (63 law) publicized, hospitals , schools, power plants, post offices, banks...a lot of stuff built. 1908, 400KM of north-south railway started its first commercial run.

Even today, Taiwanese people still enjoy those foundations Japanese laid more than 50 years ago. In fact, the credit of Taiwan's economic miracle, 70% should go to Imperial Japan than later KMT.

Taiwan would be much better stayed with Japan.

To keep China fighting against Japan, keeping the pressure from east, US had made Taiwan as a lure, promised to give Taiwan back to China once the War ended.

By that reason, poor Taiwan people had been slaughtered on 228 incidents, 1947. 18,000 to 28,000 of civilians died under American made rifles, field guns and dum-dum bullets.

I don't see any reason why it's difficult for Taiwan to return to Japan after WWII. After more than 50 years ruling, in fact, Taiwanese are rather close to those Japanese in Taiwan. Petition for abolishing unequal colonial law was almost succeeded. Taiwanese considered themselves Japanese, very friendly to them. Many Japanese sought to stay in Taiwan, since to them, Taiwan is their homeland than Japan.

If the USA was more willing to treat Japan like West Germany, ie a front-line against the Communists, then they'd be far more willing to allow a military (and no constiutional ban on war) and give them control over outlying provinces.

As mentioned, if the KMT went to the left, then there's no need for Taiwan as the Communists would either stay with the KMT or a breakway faction would be far less successful. Also a leftist KMT would most certainly have the total backing of the USSR as they did gain the lion's share well into the war despite their politics in OTL, due to Mao's boys being a bunch of peasant guerillas, which is 1) (apparently) less likely to win than the KMT and 2) Went against Marxist-Leninist principles as the revolutionary vanguard in any country was supposed be led by the urban workers and intellectuals.

If anything, a rogue Commie partisan forces facing a Stalin-friendly leftwing KMT would probably be labled anarchists or Trotskites and hunted down like dogs with the help of the Comintern.

...a bit off topic but all of that would lead to America more willing to grant Japan, Taiwan, possibly in the 1970s alnog with Okinawa as someone else said

The best chance for this is probably a Japanese surrender in early 1943 (which is damned close to ASB), perhaps after a much worse result in the Solomons. Maybe no American carrier losses while the IJN loses several decks, maybe Skokaku, Zuikaku at East Solomons & Hiyo, Zuiho or Junyo at Santa Cruz islands with heavier losses, including several BBs, in the various surface/air actions in the 'Canal area forces reality to dawn sooner in the Imperial Palace

The Japanese pull out of the Chinese Mainland, give up the island possessions they got from the Germans post WW I, and agree to hand over war criminals (including members of the military dictatorship, but NOT the Emperor or any members of the Royal Family, and pay reparations through the nose. In return they get to keep Taiwan, maybe Korea since they had them pre-WW I, and a much reduced naval force.

Low order of probability, but it's as close as I can get.

I agree the Japanese need to surrender early, and I like the loss of their flattops as a POD—perhaps this inspires the Naval high command to mount a coup because they grasp that no carriers = certain defeat.

If the Japanese turn over their army equipment to the Nationalists and pull out of China that would probably help. Turn over the Navy to the French or the Dutch or whatever, pull out of everything but Korea (I agree, that's a maybe) and Taiwan, accept American bases, and enter the war on the Allies side… yeah, it's really unlikely.


Perhaps we go back further, and start the Pacific War with something other than Pearl Harbor.

godel.chen said:

Since the Qing Dynasty, Taiwan had been considered a remote offshore island with no significance to mainland empire, until the western power knocked the front gate with battleships, from the sea.

Only at the last ten years of Qing's 212 year ruling, China decided to make Taiwan a province, shipping some outdated coastal guns, unwanted railway tracks, to strengthen Taiwan as China's front line.

Even so, after 1895's defeat, China conveniently gave away Taiwan for it's insignificance, left Japan an island, with railway not much operable (later torn down and rebuilt by Japanese), no public roads, only trails for walk. Along with other horrible ancient basic facilities.

Huge contrast to China's rule, at the very first year of Japan's landing, anthropologists, geologists, engineers, sent to advance together with Imperial Army, doing research on their new territory, some of them face extreme danger, for natives resist stubbornly.

Within one year, colonial law (63 law) publicized, hospitals , schools, power plants, post offices, banks...a lot of stuff built. 1908, 400KM of north-south railway started its first commercial run.

Even today, Taiwanese people still enjoy those foundations Japanese laid more than 50 years ago. In fact, the credit of Taiwan's economic miracle, 70% should go to Imperial Japan than later KMT.

Taiwan would be much better stayed with Japan.

To keep China fighting against Japan, keeping the pressure from east, US had made Taiwan as a lure, promised to give Taiwan back to China once the War ended.

By that reason, poor Taiwan people had been slaughtered on 228 incidents, 1947. 18,000 to 28,000 of civilians died under American made rifles, field guns and dum-dum bullets.

I don't see any reason why it's difficult for Taiwan to return to Japan after WWII. After more than 50 years ruling, in fact, Taiwanese are rather close to those Japanese in Taiwan. Petition for abolishing unequal colonial law was almost succeeded. Taiwanese considered themselves Japanese, very friendly to them. Many Japanese sought to stay in Taiwan, since to them, Taiwan is their homeland than Japan.

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Yeah, Korea should also have stayed with Japan, things were awesome under them.

Bishop said:

Yeah, Korea should also have stayed with Japan, things were awesome under them.

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*looks at Bishop-PRC citizen and sympathyzer to said country, and new member apparently from Taiwan*

Interesting...

Bishop said:

Yeah, Korea should also have stayed with Japan, things were awesome under them.

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Allow me to explain this, please. (For the moment, disregard where i am from...)

Japanese rule in Taiwan was markedly differently from its rule in Korea, or other parts of its occupation.

As Japan's first overseas colony, a showpiece to demo westerners its capability to own a colony, Taiwan received huge improvement from Japan, in economy, industry, public work, education and even culture.

Japanese blended in to locals, many intermarried to Taiwanese, one famous anthropologist married aboriginal wife and adopted two, to learn their language.

Unequal treatment had gradually meltdown, before the end of pacific war, Japanese government had consider to abolish 63 law, colonial law, to give Taiwanese an equal status under Japanese constitution, and upgrade Taiwan to a official prefecture.

The close interaction between Japanese people and Taiwanese is far beyond outsiders imagination. (Especially Chinese)

To Taiwanese, though not the same ethnic group, Japanese are more advance, more reasonable to deal with. That's one of the reason why most of the uprising ceased before 1915. (Another reason is basically Taiwanese didn't have the idea that "Taiwan is an independent country lost to Japan", rather just a change of the ruler, this time "not our kind", quite different from Korea's situation.)

Some scholars criticize the adaptability as slavery character of Taiwanese. After enjoying 4 times more of electrical power consumption than all mainland China sum up a year, telephony, cars...Naturally Taiwanese were more willing to identify themselves as Japanese than Chinese. Especially most Taiwanese, received mandatory education, up to high school, some to college, now can communicated fluently in Japanese.

If you disdain those war crimes IJA had committed, i truly agree with you. However, it's also true Japan did a great job in Taiwan, and even today welcomed by many.

No people is total evil...

Ironically, after the end of pacific war, the former enemy, KMT troopers came to Taiwan with the assistance from US, saw streets filled with Japanese signs, people speak Japanese, along with many advance facilities they had never seen in China, felt rather undignified and reminded what Japanese did to their homeland.

Theft, rape, robbery, disease, were rampant, brought by Chinese. Taiwanese stunted, jaw-dropping how can this country defeat Japan, contempt and doubt secretly grew in mind.

Finally the tension between the two different culture groups, unaware to US, erupted into 228 incident, KMT troopers with the help of US-made weapon, killed more than 18,000 of Taiwanese, later arrested and murdered more social elites to avoid similar uprising.

1949, after losing the civil war, KMT moved to Taiwan, one-minded on retaking the mainland China and securing their rule in Taiwan, paid few attention to infrastructure. Police, post office, farming...too many simply received those left by Japanese.

Without those infrastructure left by Japanese, KMT won't hold long against CCP attack. You can tell from the quick destiny of one KMT troop retreated to HaiNan.

Don't think Chinese won't commit the same war crime like Japanese. They just lacked the capability at that time. Historically, China can be as brutal as like burying 400,000 soldiers over one night (Battle of ChangPing) or just look at Tibet...

IMHO, Taiwan can act as an independent bridge (or strategic buffer zone) to China and Japan, the two powers in Asia, to promote unity and peace. Like Belgium in Europe.

For people who is interested in Taiwan's past, the book, Formosa Betrayed, by George Kerr, will tell you why Taiwan would rather stay with Japan.

http://www.romanization.com/books/formosabetrayed/index.html

David M. said:

If Taiwan remained part of Japan after 1945 what would be the fate of the KMT during the Chinese Civil War? If they are exterminated and the PRC come to power, will there be a conflict with Japan over the island?

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No, without KMT retreated to Taiwan, Taiwan would naturally be outside of China, like territories ceded to Russia at Qing Dynasty. Not possible for China to claim an island which it ceded by signing a treaty with Japan, after defeated in the first Sino-Japan war.

Unless China defeated Japan independently in the second Sino-Japan war (WWII), and requested the return of Taiwan by signing another treaty.

Sadly, US is the real winning country, not China. At the time Japan surrendered, one third of China's territory was still under Japan's occupation, mostly coastal area. KMT relied heavily on USA's transportation ability to redeploy their troops to those places to prevent CCP's expansion after the end of WWII. That in fact leads to KMT's failure later for stretch too thin.

From another view point, most Chinese people at that time consider Taiwanese like Korean people, an minor ethnic group, being suppressed by Japan, NOT PART Of China. Mao ZeDong even called for support to Taiwanese people's self-determination to be independent from Japan.

CalBear said:

In return they get to keep Taiwan, maybe Korea since they had them pre-WW I, and a much reduced naval force.

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According to George Kerr's Formosa Betrayed, Chinese, so busy on keeping Japanese from further inland, was indifferent to Taiwan's return or not.

You can tell this by its half-hearted reply on US's reconnaissance help request. However, after the assessment of Taiwan's strategic place, and well-built infrastructure and material reserve, leaked to Chinese, their attitude toward Taiwan Changed 180 degrees.

Without Chinese showing highly interest in Taiwan, right before the end of war, US won't use Taiwan as a lure to keep China from secretly reach a truce with Japan.

Contrary to many people's understand, Taiwan is supposed to keep in Japan, or self-determined to form a new nation, if it's not for US's reward policy.

Pretty much agree with godel.chen. It's a little discussed fact, and indeed not that well known about how Japan in contrast to how it ruled other areas, such as Corea, ruled Taiwan with a much lighter hand, and was far more benign in the administration of the place.

It's surprising how many older Taiwanese in particular one finds who have fairly positive things to say about that time and Japanese rule, especially when one goes to Corea and talks to older Coreans of the same generation and their experiences which contrast quite sharply due to Japan's far harsher and more brutal rule there.


Sargon