here is my shot at this
POD: American Civil War
Confederate army disbands into small guerilla units and conducts a brutal asymmetric war throughout the occupied south. This forces the reconstruction to be long and brutal and military occupation never really ends for the south.
Things calm down after a few decades, due to many southerner's realizing that they are firmly under the Union heel, however there are brief glimmerings of hope in the secessionists' eyes as several times, pro-secession parties and members of the democratic and republican parties are elected to the national stage and bring the issue to the forefront, but little is accomplished. Until Europe went crazy.
During WW1, OTL's Zimmermann Telegram never happened. Instead, the Kriegsmarine ran guns and contraband to the southern states via U-Boats and surface smuggling across the Rio Grande and Gulf from a very turbulent, and if not pro-German, at least German friendly Mexico. With guns in the hands of southerners for the first time since the Civil War, it was time for payback. When the US entered the War against Germany, the southern cities exploded into riots and racial violence, while the countryside was paralyzed with guerilla attacks.
America mobilized and hit back hard against the rebels, and enacted the brutal tactics practiced in the Philippines during the war there. Thousands of southerners died in the fighting and chaos that ensued. Although their rebellion was crushed, they had hope again.
During WW2, the Germans and the Japanese ran guns and explosives and other material to the south with near impunity in 1941 and 1942. Tens of thousands of weapons, hundreds of tons of explosives and military advisors were brought in. Although there were interceptions of both subs and smuggled goods, far too much got through.
In june 1944, as the D-Day operation was underway and millions of allied troops were anywhere but on the mainland US, the south rose again. All summer long, they battled and fought and became organized. Pro-secession senators and congressmen, those who had managed to escape or be away from Washington at the time of the revolt anyway, organized a government and declared independence. Although they were only recognized by the Axis Powers and a few neutrals, this gave the government legitimacy with the southern people and the second civil war was on.
Their cause was doomed from the start, however. They had little industry, no heavy weapons or armor, and virtually no air force or navy, only what few units they could capture from the government. Although millions of troops were overseas, thousands were still occupying the south, and tens of thousands more were stationed or in transit across the nation.
Because most of the war material was needed in the Pacific and European theaters, the Southern Front only saw a small number of armored and air units at play. This would only serve to drag the war out longer and force the army to fight house to house. And they did.
At the signing of the German Armistice, the United States was in shambles. While still strong in terms of industry and manpower, her domestic infrastructure was mangled by a sustained and enthusiastic guerilla offensive. Martial Law was in place in the major cities and designated combat zones, and the population was as shell shocked and frightened as any European population.
The northern and western cities were largely intact, but there was damage everywhere you looked. From bullet holes to craters from car and truck bombs, every major city had its share of them, but none more than in the south. Richmond, Wilmington, Charlotte, Raleigh, Charleston, Atlanta, Miami, Mobile, New Orleans, Birmingham and Montgomery were largely in ruins and resembled many of the cities in Europe, due to the ferocious fighting, and the countryside wasn't much better. Guerilla units were still making trouble occasionally in these areas, but the real battles were in Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, Arkansas and Texas. These areas hadn't been "repatriated" by Federal troops yet, and the self styled "Confederate Regulars," which were little more than promoted irregular units, were still in action. The Confederate Government was located in Vicksburg, Mississippi, but whenever they broadcast it was always from "somewhere in the Confederate States."
By the time of the Surrender of Japan, the war was officially over in the states as well. The Confederate "Government," was threatened with an atomic bomb, and they immediately caved in to avoid a Kokura or Nagasaki on American soil. The American bluff (there weren't any bombs available in the states at the time) worked and the second civil war ended in another defeat for the south. Guerilla warfare and terrorist campaigns continue through the present day.
With over half of the continental United States, from Virginia to Florida to Arizona in utter ruins, the Americans will adopt an America First program and spend years rebuilding and recuperating from the trauma of WW2. There will be no military adventurism, and the Cold War won't be quite as cold ITTL.
(I came up with and wrote this in about 10 mins, there are obvious bloopers that i could figure out with time, but this was just an exercise.)
EDIT: SHIT! for some reason, i didn't see the "no-POD earlier than 1945" line. How on earth did i miss that? ; _ ;
ok, this submission is null and void. F- for me.
