Isolated war between British Empire and Japan in the 1940s

This is vague and probably ASB, but I put it here because I want serious analysis...

Basically, assume that WW2 in Europe does not take place, at least by 1941. Then a war begins at the end of 1941 between the British Empire and Japan, with no other allies on either side (beyond the British dominions and the Japanese puppets in China). What would be outcome?

like 100% peace in Europe? only the British Empire? not France or the Dutch? well my guess is that the British will win on sea (not easy) but won't have the strength to take the japanese on land the war ends status quo ante bellum more or less

No Nazi Germany to worry about?

Depends. Probably a stalemate and negotiated peace. But some impressive sea battles en route.

WIth OTL preoccupations, the British too tough to dislodge from their possessions (perhaps not HK or Wei Hei Wei), given increased RN and RAF presence, but unable to take major offensives.

As to the cause -except blatant turning against an ex-ally by Japan for limited gain, can't think of one that wouldn't involve others.

Fellatio Nelson said:

No Nazi Germany to worry about?

Depends. Probably a stalemate and negotiated peace. But some impressive sea battles en route.

WIth OTL preoccupations, the British too tough to dislodge from their possessions (perhaps not HK or Wei Hei Wei), given increased RN and RAF presence, but unable to take major offensives.

As to the cause -except blatant turning against an ex-ally by Japan for limited gain, can't think of one that wouldn't involve others.

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I was thinking of doing the good old 'Japanese attempt to take Dutch East Indies and the British have guaranteed them' but that brings an independent Netherlands and the Dutch Navy into it as well...

Thande said:

I was thinking of doing the good old 'Japanese attempt to take Dutch East Indies and the British have guaranteed them' but that brings an independent Netherlands and the Dutch Navy into it as well...

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With the best will in the world for my not-quite-compatriots, they have no real navy to speak of (unless you want to give them some German-built battlecruisers), and their airforce is hardly up to IJN standards. Let's be honest, nobody's up to IJN pilot standards at this date, because they were unrealistically high - which doomed them in WWII, since their pool of replacements vs the USA was way too small.

Thande said:

I was thinking of doing the good old 'Japanese attempt to take Dutch East Indies and the British have guaranteed them' but that brings an independent Netherlands and the Dutch Navy into it as well...

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and to launch said invasion you'd have to have ether the Philippines or Malaysia and to take Malaysia you need to take French Indochina so to invade the East Indies japan would bring France or the US or both into the war

What's the status of China?

Leej said:

What's the status of China?

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Gleeful cackling.

MrP said:

With the best will in the world for my not-quite-compatriots, they have no real navy to speak of (unless you want to give them some German-built battlecruisers), and their airforce is hardly up to IJN standards. Let's be honest, nobody's up to IJN pilot standards at this date, because they were unrealistically high - which doomed them in WWII, since their pool of replacements vs the USA was way too small.

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Mr P the Dutch had a navy it was large for there size .And why would the want the shit ships the German build .

black angel said:

and to launch said invasion you'd have to have ether the Philippines or Malaysia and to take Malaysia you need to take French Indochina so to invade the East Indies japan would bring France or the US or both into the war

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You don't need those locations to take the East Indies. You do, however, have to be utterly sure that the contries that DO control them will never wish you ill if you intend to hold them.

In this scenario, the Japanese are at a serious strategic disadvantage. Without the bases available in French Indochina and later, without the bases in the Philippines, the closest support for the forces in Singapore and the Malay Peninsula are in Hong Kong and Saipan. The UK has Australia, New Zealand, and whatever parts of the Solomons that the IJN haven't taken. Australia offers ideal locations to base heavy bombers that can raid Indonesia and the Malay Peninsula, and both New Zealand and Oz provide anchorages close to the contested zones for the RN. The British have a massive manpower advantage (troops from the rest of the Dominion AND the Raj), far better access to resources, and at the least, the tacit support of the French and Americans (which is critical, given the intel that routine patrol flights from French and American colonies and possessions offer in IJN movements).

Japanese forces are operating at the end of an extremely long supply line, will be fighting, at least part of the time, inside Dominion land based air cover and will be facing a RN that is far larger in every category but carriers. The Japanese carrier force will be a dominant force wherever it appears, but it is a VERY big ocean and the RN can afford losses that Japan can not, especially in the area of smaller surface combatants (CL, DDL, DD) if the need to fight against the Kriegsmarine is off the board.

There is also the not inconsiderable issue of production, particularly from the U.S. This TL does not seem to have the Japanese playing nice in China & does feature an aggressive Japan attacking into the East Indies. This means the Japanese are, once again, subject to U.S. sanctions. Even if these are not as severe as IOTL they will still impact Japan's ability to make weapons. Britain, however; as the aggrieved party will still be able to procure weapons from the U.S. for cash or barter (the Raj and South Africa have so many nice minerals and raw materials), which will be in much greater supply that IOTL thanks to no European War. One thing that the U.S. (and for that matter France) has ALWAYS been willing to do is sell weapons to those who meet government approval. The U.S. has the ability to offer better carrier aircraft (the Wildcat, SBD, and Avenger are all in production in 1941/early 1942 & are a significant upgrade from the RNs home built designs of the era), some lovely heavy bombers with just the ranges necessary to hit Malay and East Indies from Darwin, factories for, well, everything you might want (we also have a couple carrier designs we are very proud of that are available on easy terms) and plenty of steel, aluminium & the like for sale. Combined with the production that the UK and Dominion can pour into the Pacific War the Japanese material advantage in carriers will not last very long.

It seems unlikely that the UK would try to actually invade Japan. You would most likely end up with a version of the blockade that strangled Japan IOTL, with the only difference being the accents of English being spoken.

Most likely ends up in a draw.

The British can and will defeat the Japanese however the effort involved would be considerable. If Europe has really become a non-issue (basically requiring the USSR and Germany to have had near total internal collapse) then they would probably push on to the end, otherwise some sort of agreement that could be construed as a draw seems likely.

Then again the odds of Japan going to war with the British Empire and the USA sitting the entire thing out (even if only because they want influence in the pacific) are fairly remote.

This is not impossible to do.


Some U.S. politicians in the 1930's, after conflict seemed possible with Japan, considered forming a treaty with the Japanese to settle the differences between the two countries. In theory, such a treaty could keep the U.S. out of the war. The issue to settle, then, is Europe, but that should not be too difficult to achieve.

I have a story roaming my computer which one day I plan to post here, but it was in which Nazi Germany never arose, and is from the perspective of the Wiermer Republic.

So around 1937 Japan invades China as before. The same arguements fly about but nothing really happens. This changes once Japan starts slowing down, and seeing its lack of oil. Now it decides to move quickly, but does so in a manner to avoid the US, taking Indonesia in 1940. What follows is Europe scrambling to back each other in the Pacific, for they are worried about Japan's message of "Asia" ruling itself. Of course Japan will do no such thing, but it sounds nice to the locals. So by mid-1940, when the US offically cuts of its oil, the Great Pacific War begins, with French, British, Dutch, and Belgian fleets heading East.

Japan was somewhat prepared for this, and with in a month they have moved upon Hong Kong, Indochina, and Malaysia. ow the attacks are not as successful as OTL, but about 60% of Europes colonies are in Japan's hands.

The war drags on following the success of the Battle of Andaman Sea, in which the British fleet was forced to retreat due to Japanese airpower. In Malaysia the Allied forces fight the entrenched Japanese, who hold their own due to Allied commanders not wanting to waste what forces they have. Of course the tide of the war changes in Apirl of 1942 with a swift retaking of Indonesia with Austrialian, and British forces.

The war shifts to a slow retreat, that goes on until 1944. The British engage in the largest bombing campaign of the era, and some call a crime agaisnt humanity in the close to 24 hour fire bombing of Tokyo, Nagasaki, Kyoto, and the Kyushu province. Following almost six months of blockade, bombing, and attempts to talk the nation down France, and Britian come together deciding to invade Japan.

June 1945 marks the first series of invasions. France, Canada, South Africa, Austrailia, New Zealand, Belgium, Holland, and the UK all take part in Operation Ballpoint. It takes until October for Tokyo to be taken, and even then it is still in the air if the war will end. A minor action occurs with in the military acting on "behalf" of the Emperor, having a showdown against those who wish to ask for peace terms. In Feb. 1946 the Emperor offically surrenders to the United Kingdom. Chinese forces move in to take Manchuria, while France, Beligum, and the UK divide Korea. Holland gets few Japanese islands, as does Australia.

Of course various other conflicts occur in Europe with the allies occupied, but very small wars.

In many ways this was the kind of wars the British empire was best prepared for - defending the Empire.

British plans in case of a war with Japan, and with no major involvement in Europe, meant sending a substantial fleet and reinforcements to Singapore. It was reckoned that it would take 70 days to be at full strength in Singapore/Malaya.

By that time it was assumed that Hong Kong had been lost and retaking Hong Kong was an initial primary objective.

The defence of Malaya and Singapore was in Plan Matador hinging on the fortress of Singapore against surprise attacks on Singapore itself and on taking up positions as far north in Malaya as possible (Isthmus of Kra), if necessary on Thai territory. It was assumed that 45-55 battalions (5 Divisions), one or two tank regiments (50-100 tanks) would be enough to defend Malaya and Singapore. In OTL that force was never reached, as Europe (the Med.) had higher priority.

As Calbear already has said, the Japanese will have a very difficult job without bases in French Indochina, and if/when they try to take them they will of course alert the British with nothing else to do.

Perhaps deploying the entire carrier fleet to the South China Sea could provide aircover to land an invasion force in N. Malaya without FIC bases, but it would very much risk the carriers and the invasion force being cut off from supplies. Anyway, even if we through some ASB like intervention have the British be as unprepared as in OTL 1941, the Japanese still took from 10th of December 41 to 15th of February 42 (67 days), in which time British without engagement in Europe will have plenty of time and opportunity to send defensive reinforcements, this is just three days from the time frame needed for offensive operations.

In the more long term the British plans did not involve an invasion of Japan itself, but rather a guerre de course cutting Japan off from imports. IIRC Formosa (Taiwan) was considdered as an invasion target however.

The British Empire had a warpotential by far outreaching that of the Japanese Empire, and my guess is that if the British can stay un-engaged elsewhere, the Japanese will end up isolated and starving on their island. British naval losses might be high initially, but the OTL British naval programme initiated before OTL WWII would by ca. 1942 have provided the British with a fleet the IJN couldn't cope with. In OTL much if not most of this fleet was cancelled , but see these links on how the British viewed the situation before 1939:

http://www.sfu.ca/~dmunro/RNbuildup2.pdf

http://www.sfu.ca/~dmunro/RNbuildup.pdf

Regards

Steffen Redbeard

This is perfectly plausible - it is perfectly imaginable in a 'No Munich' timeline or an Anglo-French victory in 1940 timeline. (Anything that removes the German threat and leaves Europe reasonably quiescent.)

In fact the latter option seems more likely, the British would at least be distracted and drained by fighting in Europe. If the British had not been fighting elsewhere it is hard to see the Japanese doing something this crazy - it will be almost impossible for them to take the Dutch East Indies and get a stable oil supply.

(Yes I know Pearl Harbour was crazy, but this is even crazier as the US is still likely to be dragged in and there is less chance of setting up the Co-Prosperity Sphere in the first place.)

Japanese naval airpower would deliver some nasty shocks but the British can deploy lots of airpower to the Far East - Malaya will be held, Hong Kong probably not.

Ward said:

Mr P the Dutch had a navy it was large for there size .And why would the want the shit ships the German build .

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It might be large for their size, but I'd question its utility in a major engagement between the RN and IJN. The Dutch tried to get German-built battleships before WWI, so as to defend the DEI against a future Japanese threat. And to quote Conway's 1922-46 -

Three battlecruisers were proposed for the reinforcement of the East Indies Squadron in 1939 and authorised in February 1940. They were intended to strengthen the cruiser and destroyer force and support them against the more powerful and numerous Japanese cruisers which, in particular, outclassed the existing Dutch cruisers. They were to have been completed in 1944, but the German invasion halted all further development of the class. German assistance was initially sought for design work and the first proposal was for ships very similar to the Scharnhorst class and armed with the same 280mm guns in three triple turrets...In general the ships, if built, would have been contemporaries of the US Alaska class which they resembled in size, speed, armament and concept.

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And German ships weren't shit; that's most unfair!

I thought that those new Dutch cruisers were quite away along by the time of the German invasion?

MrP said:

It might be large for their size, but I'd question its utility in a major engagement between the RN and IJN. The Dutch tried to get German-built battleships before WWI, so as to defend the DEI against a future Japanese threat. And to quote Conway's 1922-46 -

And German ships weren't shit; that's most unfair!

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Anyway, thinking about the British plans, I seem to recall a pre-war plan for by the end of 1941 the Far East Air Force to have at least 350 modern combat aircraft (eg latest Spitfires, etc rather than Buffalos) but losses in Europe scuppered that plan. Assuming UK aircraft development is roughly consistent, this force might be ok-ish. My concern is the FAA, I think in 1941 its range of aircraft were still weak (Swordfish and Fulmars I think for the most part), I can't see it managing to either perform any sort of quality air defence against Japanese air strikes or (in the case of Swordfish) get past the Zeros.

Jason said:

I thought that those new Dutch cruisers were quite away along by the time of the German invasion?

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Well, I was only talking about the battlecruisers, old boy. But the cruisers aren't very numerous, either, tbh. 5 in total, 2 ready, one not yet fitted out, 2 stuck incomplete for the rest of the war.

De Ruyter (6,000t standard, 7548 full load, 7 * 150mm guns, 32 knots) launched '35, sunk '42
Tromp and Jacob van Heemskerk (3787t standard, 4800t full load, 6*150mm guns, 33.5 knots) Launched 24.5.37 and 16.9.39 respectively "Both ships transferred to the UK after the German invasion of the Low Countries but Heemskerk had not completed fitting out."
De Zeven Provincien and Eendracht, enlarged De Ruyter types. "Construction was not far advanced when the German invasion brought a halt to proceedings and although their new owners carried out some work on the ships very little further was accomplished until after the war."

MrP said:

It might be large for their size, but I'd question its utility in a major engagement between the RN and IJN. The Dutch tried to get German-built battleships before WWI, so as to defend the DEI against a future Japanese threat. And to quote Conway's 1922-46 -



And German ships weren't shit; that's most unfair!

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The German light Cruisers were some of the worst ever designed by a major poser and ther Hv Cruiser power systems were to fraglae to spend much time at sea . Now German subs were better than most navys subs but the japaniese actuly had better subs then they did but not sub tactics .

MrP said:

Well, I was only talking about the battlecruisers, old boy. But the cruisers aren't very numerous, either, tbh. 5 in total, 2 ready, one not yet fitted out, 2 stuck incomplete for the rest of the war.

De Ruyter (6,000t standard, 7548 full load, 7 * 150mm guns, 32 knots) launched '35, sunk '42
Tromp and Jacob van Heemskerk (3787t standard, 4800t full load, 6*150mm guns, 33.5 knots) Launched 24.5.37 and 16.9.39 respectively "Both ships transferred to the UK after the German invasion of the Low Countries but Heemskerk had not completed fitting out."
De Zeven Provincien and Eendracht, enlarged De Ruyter types. "Construction was not far advanced when the German invasion brought a halt to proceedings and although their new owners carried out some work on the ships very little further was accomplished until after the war."

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The Dutch Cruisers were some of the best in the world at the time they were build . I have used both Dutch and German cruisers against the Japaniese in naval minitures and the Dutch ships are much better i surgace combat then the German Cruisers .