Italy stays neutral

ThomasG

Johnrankins said:
What if Mussolini pulls a Franco and refuses to join Germany in WWII?
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Well Britain is no longer a concern to Hitler and he ignores them and Japan. Mussolini can become his middle man in terms of circumventing the British trade embargo.

Without the Italian misadventures, over 200 Ju-52s alot of oil and four Panzer Divisions, not to mention the Paratroopers are not lost in the Mediterranean theater. Those are men that can join the party with the USSR.

No Med or war with the U.S. means thousands of fighters and flak units are in the USSR instead of defending the Reich. In addition over 100 divisions are not deployed in France, the Med, and the Balkans. They instead go after Stalin.
 

Tyr

Britain would be even more an annoyance I'd imagine with no African or Mediteranian campaign for them to worry about.
 

DuQuense

Italy contiues to sell to both sides.
Italy continues to send Colonists [ & refugees] to IOA and Libya.
Eygpt continues to move into the Italian sphere of Influence.
Several divisions of French troops are interned in Italy in late June,
After the Vichy government is established, these are released to North Africa,
With out NAfrica to worry about Britian sends more Troops/Equipment to the Pacific.
Without NAfrica, britian sends [sells] more Equipment to Greece.
Italy stays out of Greece and concentrates on Albania.
Italy continues reorganizing Military, and upgrading the Equipment.

ooc; This post has 5 more reponses than my one did.
 

Rockingham

Banned
Italy probably invades Yugoslavia. Though, seeing the state of its military, it's not likely to succeed. If Bulgaria and Hungary ally with it, it may succeed and take Dalmatia.
 

alephh

Johnrankins said:
What if Mussolini pulls a Franco and refuses to join Germany in WWII?
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Considering how high value Hitler placed on showing germans that there was a big alliance (lot of headlines for even smaller axis forces like Finland's Waffen-SS battalion) on the same side with Nazi Germany, he may have placed more pressure to Spain.

But certainly that would have freed a notable amount of german (military) resources - but the same goes for Britain too.

But it's also possible that Mussolini (without Germany) creates a chaos on Mediterranean, and Britain have to fully focus clearing/securing that area and stability there, and that makes Britain more willing to make a peace with Germany.


_
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Probably, like Franco live a better life, ruling a his state with iron fist. poor ethiopians and albanians would not be freed. then italian colonial empire live longer, but I guess large problems, especially in Libya with the rise of arab nationalism. When Mussolini die there's a chance Italy return to democracy and denounce occupation and colonialism, if not a Portugal like stiuation migth occur, with guerillas figting for independence turning up both in Albania and African colonies, probably encompassing marxist views, and armed by USSR. In the end Italy would lose.
 

Michele

alephh said:
Considering how high value Hitler placed on showing germans that there was a big alliance (lot of headlines for even smaller axis forces like Finland's Waffen-SS battalion) on the same side with Nazi Germany, he may have placed more pressure to Spain.
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Spain did provide troops serving under German command, just like that Finnish battalion. The difference is that Finland as a country went along, Spain as a country did not.

But certainly that would have freed a notable amount of german (military) resources - but the same goes for Britain too.
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Much more British resources are freed than German ones. The Germans have 2 divisions in North Africa for most of the time, then 3, and a larger number only when the entire campaign is doomed, plus varying amounts of aircraft. The British have all the troops they used in North Africa, plus all those that served against the East African Italian colonies in a reasonably long campaign.



But it's also possible that Mussolini (without Germany) creates a chaos on Mediterranean, and Britain have to fully focus clearing/securing that area and stability there, and that makes Britain more willing to make a peace with Germany.
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On top of the above, there is the Balkan campaign in OTL, but it was too short to make a great difference. If Mussolini does make that chaos in this ATL, it serves British interests, not German ones, as per OTL.
 

orion900

Questions

Would Great Britian still allow trade to flow in Germany from Italy, or would there be some trade Embargo against Italy? Did Great Britian allow trade to flow out from Spain during WW2? Would more European Jew go to Italy to escape from the Camps in Germany?


Remember the United States blocked trade with Japan, stopping all trade going to Japan. That included other nations trade with Japan, before the War started. Wouldn't Great Britian do something similar to Italy, stopping all shipments of Raw Materials, which could be used in Germany, Also doesn't Italy need German Coal, for it's energy supplies, so Germany could pressure Italy to join the War?


Would Thousand of Jews be allow to settle in Italy (Italy didn't have the same type Policies on Race that Germany did)? Maybe going to Italian Colonies in the Middle East or Africa? How would this alter Germany and Italy relationship, if Italy makes the Decision to allow Foriegn Nationals into Italy or the Colonies, from the Rest of Europe. This could improve relations with the United States and the rest of the World.


Orion
 

orion900

Questions

Would Italy go to War in Yugoslavia, if there was no War with the Allies, What about relationship with Russia? Could Italy become a center for peace talks between Great Britian and later Russia and Germany?


Orion
 
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orion900

Questions

How important is Italy to German War Plans, how much more trade and Raw Materials could a Neutral Italy bring to Germany, how would the Italians population reacted to the lack of War. Could Italian Military Leaders organized Italian Forces better with more time?


Orion
 
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Johnrankins

My guess is that GB will send more troops to the Balkans. They would send troops and fighter squadrons to Yugoslavia and make it considerably more difficult to conquer. When the US joins the war they will likely land in Yugoslavia as well to either help defend it or liberate it if taken. If the Slavs are able to fight off the Germans with British aid Bulgaria may switch sides. The Italian military would benefit if the Italians use the time wisely and get rid of their obsolete equipment.
 

Croesus

We first need to differentiate neutrality/non-belligerency.

If its the latter, then Italy falls under the somewhat-effective British trade embargo and Rome passively assists Berlin. If its the former then the trade embargo is lifted and Rome passively assists London/Paris.

However, taking either position means taking sides, so maintaining neutrality in the sense we usually take it is not really an option. Pressure will be coming from each camp for Italy to decide where it stands. So taking part in the wider conflict is at some point inevitable: the question is which side.

The more likely is non-belligerency as OTL. Britain is placing significant diplomatic obstacles in the path of Italy joining the Western Powers as by doing so Rome would increase it's role in the Mediteranean, and hence contrary to British interests. Furthermore Germany is looking irresistable and Mussolini has justifiable concerns about what Hitler would do with his erstwhile ally should he dominate the continent.
 

DuQuense

I think the best way to have a Neutral Italy is a POD in 1936 during the Ethiopia Crisis.
Butterfly away the newspaper articles accusing France and Britian of Colluding with Italy [Which they did] IIRC it started with one persitent Reporter.

Italy Continues with decent diplomatic relations with France & GB, therefore is not forced into Germany's Sphere of influence.
 

Michele

DuQuense said:
I think the best way to have a Neutral Italy is a POD in 1936 during the Ethiopia Crisis.
Butterfly away the newspaper articles accusing France and Britian of Colluding with Italy [Which they did] IIRC it started with one persitent Reporter.

Italy Continues with decent diplomatic relations with France & GB, therefore is not forced into Germany's Sphere of influence.
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I'm not sure that's enough. Mussolini's foreign policy was essentially opportunistic. He'd join with the side that he thought would turn out to be the winner and/or that he thought would give him more.

So staying on the French-British side, be it in normal diplomatic relationships before the war, and then in outright alliance or in friendly neutrality, is problematic, because a) the French and British have interests in the Med that are opposed to any further Italian expansion, so it's difficult for them to offer more, and b) because by summer 1940, they certainly don't look like they are the winners.

Unless Mussolini's instincts change (or he's replaced), he'll lean for Germany sooner or later.
 

Michele

Italy as a neutral middleman will be of limited use to Germany, exactly because the British will apply the same policies as in WWI.
So we should look at raw materials that Italy can directly provide to Germany, and basically the only one is aluminium. I suppose they can trade that for coal, but the British in OTL did stop and hinder, without any real right to do so, Italian shipping loaded with German coal in the first half of 1940. So it's probably necessary, even if Italy remains neutral, to switch to overland trade, which can be done but puts the available Italian and German rolling stock under strain.

Italy can, of course, opt for a neutrality that is friendly to Britain, instead. In that case, the coal (and other goods) can be provided by Britain, but who would want to do that while having a common border with Germany? Plus, there is the problem mentioned in my previous post.

Possibly Italy can muddle through with a German-oriented neutrality until mid-1941. Then, once Germany has its hands full in Russia and will therefore be much less inclined to open other fronts (such as, across the Alps), can still remain neutral, but swerve towards friendliness with Britain.
 

orion900

Would a Neutral Italy allow Jews and others peoples fleeing from Nazi Germany into Italy, (they could settle in Italian colonies in the Middle East and Africa). What were the policies of a Italy before the War?
 
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