AH Challenge: Byzantium AND Ottomans Survive

[GBW]

For those who like to see the Byzantines survive to the modern day and those who don't like to see the Ottomans crumble because of it... a compromise. How do both survive into the modern era, the 19th Century at least? Extra points if both are Great Powers.

[Ace Venom]

Have the Ottomans dominate Asia Minor and the Byzantines dominate the Balkans. They are still bound to clash no matter what.

[eschaton]

It would be even more interesting if it happened in the opposite direction. Around 1420 or so the Ottomans had more territory in Europe than they did in Asia Minor. Their capitol was in Andrianpol as well.

POD needs to be earlier of course, but it would make for a very weird timeline if the Byzantines managed to force the Ottomans out of their holdings in Asia Minor, but could not remove then from Europe, then allowed them to flee to their European holdings. And, as the Byzantines absorbed the Ghazi states, also allowed their Muslim population to flee to Europe.

The Ottomans would probably allow conversion of Christain populations in this TL. My guess is that either the Ottomans or the Byzantines would take all of Thrace at some point, but both parties would have a chance to expand. Also, at some point they would likely team up to push Venice out of the Greek littoral (perhaps with Cyprus and Crete going to the Byzantines, and continental posessions to the Ottomans.

The Byzantines would, provided they expanded fast enough to re-absorb Triezbond, only have to seriously worry about their southern border (and the Ottomans), and could pick off the White and Black Sheep Turks, though I don't see something similar to the Mamaluk walkover happening. Maybe everything down to Siani could be eventually captured.

The Ottomans would have a harder time, with lower manpower than in OTL. I daresay a Hungarian invasion would be hard to accomplish. However, they could potentially expand more than historically in the Crimea and southern Ukraine. I doubt Wallachia and Moldavia would be left as vassals as well, considering all the Turks wandering around looking for a homeland.

[wkwillis]

OK, I'll suggest that the Byzantines exile someone as governor to some legendary island in the Atlantic. Madeira and the Azores had been found before their official discovery in 1200 and change. So the exiled prince or politician or whatever sends a ship out to look for his province, and what do you know, he finds it!
This is pretty much it. They find Madeira, which motivates them to search for the Azores, which motivates them to search for Bermuda, which motivates them to search for the Bahamas, which motivates them to search for Mexico, which is where they find all that gold around 1425.
Which hires a fleet and an army to beat the Ottomans when push comes to shove in 1450. The Byzantines use their vast wealth of gold and silver to conquer the Balkans from the various princes, and the manpower of the Balkans to resist the Ottoman invasions. They build a Greek version of Romance Europe. They hold the islands of the Eastern Mediterranean as well.
The exploration is slow. The salt of the Madeiras preserves the fish and the lumber builds the fishing boats. The Azores provide lots of fishing grounds and wood, but not enough salt. The Madeiras lagoon island doesn't have enough. When they find Bermuda they get more salt. When they find the Bahamas they get yet more salt. Maybe they go fish the Grand Banks, too? They will certainly find them if they look.
But fish is not a good reason to send conquistador fleets. The Spanish are busy with Grenada. The British are busy with the Irish and the Scots. The Norse are fighting over the Baltic herring fishery. The Morrocan government has problems of it's own. No one is competing with them when the secret expedition finds Mexico. And if there is one thing the Byzantines knew it was how to keep a secret.
So ten or fifteen years of secret trading missions to Mexico gives them a huge horde. They buy iron objects in Spain and ship them to Mexico at a hundred to one markup for gold. A big ship every year carrying one hundred ships worth of gold back...

[Bulgaroktonos]

I'm not sure it's possible. The way I see it happening, the Byzantines successfully lobby for lots of support from the rest of Europe, and the Hungarians, Serbs, and a lot of Western European soldiers actually manage to drive the Turks out of Europe in the late 1300s and early 1400s.

This would have to be coupled with new and vigorous leadership from the Paleologoi Emperors (I believe they are in power by this time, if not, its the Angeli). A series of soldier Emperors manage to rebuild the fleet, retake much of the Aegean from Genoa and Venice, followed by recapture of the Morea, Attica, and much of Greece and Thrace. Byzantium's alliance with Genoa at this time plays a vital role in securing their ability to do drive Venice out, followed by a switching of alliances to drive the Genoese out of Tenedos, in return for special trading priviledges. By the early 1500s, Byzantium would be in firm control of most of Greece and the Aegean, Thrace, parts of Bulgaria, and perhaps some of Albania and lower Serbia.

In Asia Minor, the Turks would find themselves in a difficult position. Having been driven out of Europe, and unable to successfully return because of hte strong Byzantine and Venetian or Genoese fleets, they turn their attention to their eastern borders, and subdue the Empire of Trebizond, and conquer or subjucate most of the other Turkic groups. Armenia poses a problem, and with funding from the Byzantines, puts up a fierce resistance to the Turks. However, the Ottomans find a valuable ally in the Persians, who are also looking to expand into Mesopotamia and Armenia at this time, and over the course of a decade, Armenia is almost totally subdued.

Thoughts on that?

[MerryPrankster]

I think a POD would need to be somewhere in the 1100s...there was a big battle with a name that starts with M (Myrocepho something) that ended Byzantine efforts in Asia Minor. If the Byzantines win that battle, or avoid fighting it and fight a better battle elsewhere, they might be able to preserve their holdings in western Asia Minor.

Assuming the Ottomans come along in TTL (possible; IIRC they were ghazis fighting against the Byzantines, and such behavior would probably continue in TTL), they would be a power in central-eastern Asia Minor and probably points south, but they would not get into Europe.

[Bulgaroktonos]

Could you be thinking of Manzikert?

Manzikert simply brought about the rise of the Comneni, it was really the 1204 sack that ruined them.

[MerryPrankster]

Originally Posted by Bulgaroktonos

Could you be thinking of Manzikert?

Manzikert simply brought about the rise of the Comneni, it was really the 1204 sack that ruined them.

It wasn't Manzikert; it was Myriokelphalon. The Turks lured the Byzantine army into a ravine and proceeded to massacre them from above. That terminated the Byzantine efforts to reclaim Asia Minor or even to supply the cities under their control.

Here it is.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Myriokephalon

[MerryPrankster]

Myriokephalon ended Byzantine efforts to reclaim the Anatolian plateau from the Turks and thereafter, the Byzatines were always on the defensive.

A Byzantine victory there will mean that the Byzantines go on to besiege Iconium, the Seljuk capital.

Now what?

[Bulgaroktonos]

If the Byzantines are able to crush Seljuk power, and reduce them to vassals or crush them as an entity, then you are going to have a resurgent Byzantine power in Anatolia, perhaps able to enforce its theoretical lordship over more of Outremer. This would be an interesting turn of events come the Third Crusade....

[GBW]

Were the Ottomans themselves a factor then? Something that early might butterfly them away entirely.

Is there a way to stop the sacking of Constantinople by the Fourth Crusade? Or how about a better ruler than Andronicus II of the Palaeologi? I believe it was under his watch that things went really downhill, and this after his father, Michael VIII, reclaimed Constantinople from the Latins. I think Andronicus had an older sister, maybe a butterfly makes her male instead and s/he becomes a competent ruler?

As for the Ottomans... here's a thought I had. It's been said, probably by Abdul, that the Ottomans took on the Byzantine mantle as an 'Islamic Byzantium' and even mentioned the slim possibility that they could have converted to Orthodoxy. If they're denied access to Europe, instead of allying with the Persians might they take on that mantle instead? An Osman Dynasty of Persia? Ismail, who founded the Safavid Dynasty, was Turkish himself. Such an ATL Ottoman Empire might do as the Sassanids did and claim themselves as they rightful successors to the old Achaemenids and go so far as to convert to Shiite. Or might they be able to convert the Persians to Sunni?

[JHPier]

Originally Posted by GBW

Something that early might butterfly them away entirely.?

Probably. The Ottomans only turn up in the records in the early 14C.

Originally Posted by GBW

An Osman Dynasty of Persia? Ismail, who founded the Safavid Dynasty, was Turkish himself. Such an ATL Ottoman Empire might do as the Sassanids did and claim themselves as they rightful successors to the old Achaemenids and go so far as to convert to Shiite. Or might they be able to convert the Persians to Sunni?

To be precise, Ismail, who founded the Safavid Dynasty, was Azerbaijani. And it was Ismail who converted Persia to Shiism. The previous dynasties, the White Sheep Turks and the Timurids, had been Sunni, and Sunnism IIRC was still fairly strong.

[Leo Caesius]

The odd thing about the Achaemenids is they don't figure much in the historiography of the Sassanians. The Arsacids and the Sassanians tended to derive their authority from the Kayanians, the legendary rulers of the Iranians, who reputedly came from Sistan, a region straddling today's Afghanistan and Iran. These Kayanians are portrayed as the defenders of the Iranians against the Turanians (later identified with the Turks), so it is unlikely that a Turkic dynasty would look to them for legitimacy. Also, religion divides the Sassanians from later Persian dynasties, even though that didn't stop Ferdowsi. If you rely entirely upon the Middle Persian and Classical Persian sources, you would be forgiven for not realizing just who the Achaemenids were or how much of the ancient world was within their grasp. The memory of Cyrus, Darius, Xerxes and the rest was really preserved to a greater degree in the West.

[GBW]

Well, nevertheless, it is possible that the Ottomans, cut off from Europe, could have instead expanded into Iran and legitimized themselves as a new dynasty? I mentioned the Achaemenids because such an ATL Ottoman Empire could possibly be based in Iran or Mesopotamia with their western frontier in Asia Minor and possibly Egypt. Also, they would have a possibly 'eternal' Greek enemy, like the Achaemenids and Sassanids, in the form of Byzantium.

How would the Ottomans be able to get the Persians to accept them as 'legitimate' rulers and not just be subjects as they were to former Turkish rulers?

[Leo Caesius]

Judging from history, they'd have to be thoroughly Iranized (like the Azeris) and draw heavily upon Iranian traditions to derive any legitimacy. Iran is like China in that regard; it always seems to conquer its conquerors.

[GBW]

Originally Posted by Leo Caesius

Judging from history, they'd have to be thoroughly Iranized (like the Azeris) and draw heavily upon Iranian traditions to derive any legitimacy. Iran is like China in that regard; it always seems to conquer its conquerors.

Exactly, that's why I mentioned them taking on the mantle of the Achaemenids as one possible way of doing that. Perhaps they would have learned more of the Achaemenids while they were in Europe before being driven out in one version of an ATL? Or what other traditions could these alternate Ottomans draw on? Having the Iranians actively on their side would help them survive the centuries with access to Europe cut off. With Iran as a base, they might even be able to form a bridge with the Turkic peoples of Central Asia.

Of course, while the Ottomans are doing this, the Byzantines still have to find a way to survive as well. One way is for the Ottomans to still have gained a foothold in Europe long enough for the rest of Europe to realize the Muslim threat before they're driven out. Plus, as was mentioned before, they'd have to supplant the Genoese and Venetians and regain mastery over the waters of the eastern Mediterranean, while the Ottomans remain mostly a land-based power.

[Romulus Augustulus]

I put the POD at August 1402. Basically, following the Battle of Ankara, things go even worse for the Turks than they did in real life. Because the whole Asia Minor--Caucasus--Mesopotamia--Iran region is in chaos, the "Romans" have a much easier job. So...here it is. I'll call it "Two Empires."

****

1402 CE: Following the Battle of Ankara, the Osmanli, or Ottoman Empire, still in its formative stages, collapses as rival generals and warlords rise in revolt and begin fighting each other after the departure of the Timurids. Asia Minor soon devolves into a chaos, and a few distant relatives of Bayezid flee to Europe. "Rome" sees nothing but opportunity in the situation, hiring Frankish mercenaries and attacking the little emirates with much vigor.
1404 CE: The "Romans" have managed to wrest back control of Asia Minor from the Turks, destroying each little emirate one by one. Their job was is made all the more easier by lack of coordination or unity among the emirates, not to mention the nearly endless fighting between them. Try as they might, however, the "Romans" cannot seem to recover their European possesions, a task complicated by the new Turkish state in the region, centered around Adrianople and occupying the land around the Danube, its population swelled by a stream of Turkish refugees. However, the "Romans" do manage to gain Crete, Cyprus, Achaia, the whole of the Peloponnesus, and a good deal of land around the Aegean coast.
1405 CE: Timur dies while his troops are marching eastwards on an expedition to China. Timur's empire collapses as well, as subject peoples rise in revolt, and generals and warlords carve themselves out little kindgoms. The last real threat to the continued power of the "Roman" Empire is gone, as the various succesor states are too busy fighting each other or collapsing or being overthrown to take much notice of an irritating little presence rising in Asia Minor. Meanwhile, the new Ottoman Sultanate of Adrianople begins to obnoxiously conquer the Balkans, making the various Balkan principalities its victims. Serbia is the first victim...control of it is assured at the Second Battle of Kosovo.
1406 CE: The small states of Zeta and Mat have gone to the Ottomans, while Croja, Valona, Arta, and Cephalenia have been conquered by the "Roman" Empire. The Black and White Sheep Turkmen are too busy fighting each other for them to be a threat.
1407 CE: The "Romans" invade the Caucasus, bringing Georgia under their control. The White Sheep Turkmen continue to fight the Black Sheep Turkmen. Neither side seems to be getting the upper hand...
1408 CE: The "Romans" invade the lands east of Asia Minor, destroying the states of Dulkadir, Mar-Din, and Erzincan. The White and Black Sheep Turkmen realize the "Roman" threat.
1409 CE: The "Romans" are defeated by a combined Black and White Sheep Turkmen force at the Battle of Diyar Bakr. The White and Black Sheep Turkmen are too exhausted to follow up on this victory, however. Revolts do break out in Eastern Asia Minor.
1410 CE: Following the Second Battle of Kayseri, the "Romans" squelch the various revolts and secure control over Asia Minor. This is the last internal threat to the "Roman" Empire's internal integrity.
1411 CE: A "Roman" force defeats the White and Black Sheep Turkmen at Van. The "Romans" manage to conquer the domains of the White and Black Sheep Turkmen.
1412 CE: War breaks out between the "Romans" and Ilkhanids, one of the Timurid succesor states.It is in chaos, like most of the other Timurid states. At one point, there where three different khans ruling the khanate in one day. The "Romans" score a victory at Mosul, conquering most of Northern Mesopotamia and throwing the Ilkhanids into chaos.
1413 CE: The "Romans" win at the Battle of Baghdad, acquiring control of Mesopotamia. With the empire experiencing an economic upturn, the "Romans" are set to begin a major revival. Of course, the job is going to be more difficult from here on, as the "Romans" are now facing large, unified powers, rather than small, warring emirates. However, their current possesions are secure.

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

It's not possible. The Ottomans showed up too late for there to be any hope of the Byzantines becoming a great power. By then Anatolia had already been "Turkified".

Constantinople had been largely ignored by the Ottomans because they had other priorities and the Emperor was a fairly docile vassal of the Sultan, but the Ottomans were conscious of the vbert real threat that Constantinople presented to their position should Europe ever manage to organize a serious Crusade. The fall of the city was more or less inevitable.

While it IS conceivable that some other Byzantine remnant could hold out, like the Morea, without Constantinople, it really isn't the Byzantine Empire, just a medieval Greek state.

[MerryPrankster]

John,

How about my scenario (the battle of Myro-something). If the Seljuks are rolled back into the interior and most of Western Anatolia remains under Byzantine control, the Ottomans could theoretically come West as in OTL, but their starting position would be further east.

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

Originally Posted by Matt Quinn

John,

How about my scenario (the battle of Myro-something). If the Seljuks are rolled back into the interior and most of Western Anatolia remains under Byzantine control, the Ottomans could theoretically come West as in OTL, but their starting position would be further east.

You scenario works, except that then they wouldn't be the Ottomans - the Ottoman state was NOT Turkish in character, it was a fusion of Byzantine and Turkic/Islamic cultures, which would not have been possible anywhere else.