1941: Hitler's Mediterranean strategy

I was inspired to this thread by the latest 3rd Reich TL.

Since I don't believe, however, that Sealion could succeed, let's not even talk about a German invasion of North America, I'd like to try a different approach.

In the late spring of 1941, many people in Germany and elsewhere thought that Hitler (after having conquered Yugoslavia, Greece and Crete and with Rommel advancing in Egypt) would try to further proceed in this area, i.e. conquering Malta (no problem - unless Mussolini would insist that *his* soldiers must be the ones who take the island, then it could take longer), Cyprus (the Royal Navy suffered much from the fights around Greece and couldn't have prevented it - at least I read that), and Egypt; after that, he could decide whether to attack through the Nile valley (Sudan; Ethiopia, where some Italian troops were still fighting; Somalia; Uganda, Kenya?) or Palestine, Syria (where de Gaulle's Free French troops fought against Vichy; forgot when they won) and Iraq (remember the rebellion there). Not to forget the oil of Persia and Saudi Arabia... Even worse, since the Brits and Free French don't have the strongest army on Earth, the chances of the Germans seem to be pretty good. And without the Suez canal, Britain would be in trouble defending India (or Arabia, or East Africa). (Hmm, what about Asia? Would that matter?)

Of course, there's the big question: What would Russia do? Though they had acquired a lot of territory in the two years before (Eastern Poland, Baltic states, Bessarabia, parts of Karelia), Stalin had even more demands which included making Bulgaria a Soviet satellite (and that would've meant that they'd have Romania and its oil in a pinch). Hitler knew about that. If he wanted to spend a year in the Med, he would've to stop Stalin somehow. (He had proposed Stalin to form an anti-British alliance, planning to give Persia and India to Russia, but Stalin had other demands.) I don't think that Stalin would've attacked Germany in 1941 since the Red Army still suffered from the purges (I know some people claim he would, but too many of these people only want to make up an excuse for Hitler, so I'm careful). The relations between Germany and Russia could become worse, though.

Comments?

@Redbeard: Britain outproduced the Axis powers put together? I can't believe that. I had guessed that they came behind the US, Russia, Germany and maybe Japan.
@Tony: True, the Wehrmacht fighting somewhere deep in Africa or Asia would have trouble with long supply lines, but so would the Allies.
@wkwillis: Thanks for your story. Only one thing: If Stalin has twice the tanks, twice the soldiers and twice the airforce, that shouldn't add to eight times the power, but twice (maybe thrice, if you consider that the tanks are also better).

And now again. It's July 1941. Hitler has just defeated Yugoslavia and Greece. Crete is in German hands (but they lost a lot of good paratroopers there). Tobruq is besieged, Rommel is standing at Sidi Barrani. Now Hitler makes the important decision: Barbarossa is delayed for 1942, he'll attack in the Med first.

Since the troops are already in the right place (in the Balcans), they only have to transport them to the other side of the Med. At the same time, the attacks against Malta become stronger. Everywhere in the Eastern Med, the Luftwaffe attacks RN ships.

In August, the Axis troops in North Africa are strong enough to attack and take Tobruq. Now the way from Tripolis to the front is free. Rommel who's impatient attacks the Brits even before all of his troops have arrived. Still successful, the Brits are driven back to El Alamein.
In September, Rommel is ready for the final attack. He know has 10 divisions ready, plus some Italians, against 7+ (I guess Churchill would send them some, too, after they can guess what the Germans are up to - BTW, what did the Brits think before Barbarossa Hitler was planning? Anybody knows?) of the Empire, plus a few others. Numerical superiority and Rommel's strategic talent are too much, before the battle becomes hopeless, they start to retreat. At the banks of the Nile, they are ready for the next stand. Fighting in the fertile river valleys and big cities is a completely new situation for Rommel (so I have to make things up). Let's say, after a big battle end of September, Alexandria is taken. The Brits destroy the bridges, but that's nothing that can't be repaired. Middle of October, Cairo and all of the Nile delta are in Axis hands. A few days later, the remaining British troops are behind the Suez canal.

Tomorrow, you'll get more...

@Abdul: Hmm. You've got a link? I'd like to check the numbers.

OK, story continued.
Rommel's victory in the Nile delta made the situation for the empire difficult. Their troops in Africa and the Middle East now are disconnected from each other, the Germans control the important harbor of Alexandria, and without the Suez canal, the most important connection from Britain to India is cut. They managed to bring some support troops from India, but at the same time, since they control Egypt's biggest cities, the Nazis start to recruit Arabs willing to fight against the Brits. There's even unrest in Churchill's war cabinet. Some ministers and MPs around Halifax point out that Britain can't fight this war alone forever. Churchill resists: "It's not over yet!"

Hitler now has to make a decision: Attack in the South, through the Nile valley, aiming for Sudan and Ethiopia, or East? Since he wants to gulf oil, he quickly decides for the East. Rommel crosses the Suez canal and conquers the Sinai peninsula. The Italians and Arabs attack in the South, but are stopped at the height of El Faiyum and Beni Suef. At the end of October, the Germans stand near the little city of Gaza.
Now, Churchill exchanges several messages with Jewish leaders like Ben Gurion. The Jews now may officially form an army to fight against the Germans. Since he mustn't anger the Arabs too much, he makes Ben Gurion promise that Arabs have to keep full rights in case a state of Israel should be founded after the war. As fast as possible, the Jews raise troops. They don't exactly have the best arms, but are eager to fight against the Nazis. Southern Palestine (the Negev desert) is conquered by Germany, but then the Brits and Jews manage to stop them somehow, often simply by bluffing (did you know that empty gas canisters pulled over the ground sound much like moving tanks? I'm not kidding, the Israelis invented that trick during their war of independence). News spread fast: Though Roosevelt doesn't declare war on Germany, he supports the Jewish brigades where it's possible. Many Jews in America (emigrates and natives) volunteer to fight in Palestine, others collect more money than ever to buy arms and transport them. Even non-Jews join their rows (many of them are veterans of the Spanish civil war or other socialists).

Middle of November, Hitler is getting furious since Rommel didn't break the lines yet. He demands a victory, or else. Rommel manages to find a way: Instead of attacking Palestine directly, he lets his troops march into Transjordania. One week later, Amman is conquered. It's easy to see what Rommel is up to: He wants to enclose the Jews and Brits in a pocket and forces them to fight on two fronts. They still manage to hold the line along the Jordan and the heights of Golan. End of November, Rommel wins a battle against Free French troops and approaches Damascus. About that time, anti-British rebellions start in Iraq (again). Hitler thinks that the time has come and orders to take Cyprus.

In the first week of December, things look bleak for Britain. Half of Cyprus and most of Syria are in German hands. On December 6th, they reach the coast of Lebanon. Palestine is cut off, while the Germans in Syria approach the rebels in Iraq. Again, Churchill exchanges messages with Ben Gurion, asking whether he wants to evacuate his troops from Palestine. Ben Gurion answers: "We're ready to die for Israel!" Churchill tells him: "I hope you know that we can't support you forever." Ben Gurion: "As long as our volunteers will run the German lines, we'll stand and fight."
What they don't know: Hitler just ordered Rommel not to attack the Palestine pocket but only to clean up Syria and Mesopotamia. "We've got the harbors of Syria, now we need the oil!" he commands. He also orders that some Luftwaffe divisions are to be stationed in the North of Syria and Iraq - for an attack against the oil fields of Baku.

Then, everything changes with Pearl Harbor happening...

Thanks Matt!

I just saw that I completely forgot what Stalin was doing all the time. Here it is:

While Rommel conquers Egypt, Stalin repeatedly bugs Hitler with new demands. He wants Romania to give up land at the Danube mouth and the Bukovina; he wants a military pact with Bulgaria; he wants Japan to give up its rights for coal and oil in North Sachalin; and he points out that the Soviet Union also needs more influence in Turkey.

Behind the stage, Hitler tries to get more time. He knows he can't attack Russia before May 1942 - and that he can't wait another year, it's now or never. But he neither wants to anger his allies nor he wants a Russia that's too strong. He tries to stall Stalin. He doesn't want to give in again, after Russia already got half of Poland, Bessarabia and the Baltic states. He also points out that he's got no influence on Japan's inner affairs. He tries again to offer Stalin Persia, Afghanistan and India for an anti-British alliance. But that's not really what Stalin wants now.

But since he doesn't want to make Stalin suddenly suspicious, he slowly agrees, piece for piece. In the fall of 1941, the Romanian border again is "corrected" a bit in Russia's favor. After Pearl Harbor, Hitler gives Stalin free hand in North Sachalin. Stalin who's sure that the Japanese will be to afraid to attack Russia after the border clash of 1939, puts his hand on the mines in Sachalin. Hitler asks the Japanese whether they would join a war against Russia under the new circumstances, but the answer is No - Japan doesn't need Siberian territory, they want SE Asia. The relationship between Germany and Japan cools down. Hitler decides not to join their war against the US - at least, not yet.

In the first six months, the war in the Pacific is pretty much as OTL - Japan conquers Hong Kong, Malaya, the Philippines, Burma, most of Indonesia and many Pacific islands. Singapur also falls in this TL. American resistance is somewhat stronger, since they don't have troops sent to North Africa, OTOH Burma is conquered faster since Britain has less troops available.

Churchill is under heavy pressure again - several people want him to make peace with Germany to be able to defend the Empire against Japan. But he resists since he's sure that the Allies will win with America's help, and the public of Britain believes him. Still, the situation is hard. During December, the Germans have won in Cyprus, swept Syria and are attacking in Mesopotamia. When the new year begins, they control Bagdad. In February, they have reached the gulf at Basra. The oil fields they conquered, however, are unusable after the Brits destroyed them. Now Hitler contacts the king of Saudi Arabia for an alliance. The king is unsure; not allying with Germany might mean a German occupation, but it's not too sure that Germany will win at the end, so he says neither yes or no. Rommel concludes his victories by conquering Kuwait. Since Saudi Arabia doesn't want German troops on its soil/sand, they can't attack the remaining British oilfields in Bahrain and Qatar directly, so they have to attack with the Luftwaffe only.

Meanwhile, Stalin against asks friend Adolf for a pact with Bulgaria. Finally exhausted, Hitler agrees to let him have some bases there, if Russia agrees to respect Bulgaria's sovereignity in every other way - planning to kick them out when it's time with official Bulgarian help. Stalin gives his OK and now wants to know about Turkey. Hitler lets Ribbentrop ask secretly whether Turkey would join the Axis' cause and promises them that Georgia and Armenia could become Turkish again. The Turks disagree, the new Turkey is supposed to be a national state but not an empire. Still, they don't wish for Russian troops at the Bosporus. To confuse Stalin, Hitler asks what Stalin would think about dividing the Turkey between Italy and Russia and occupying the Bosporus together. Meanwhile, Churchill wonders what the hell Hitler is up to.

In March 1942, a lucky Israeli diversion attack drives the Germans a few kilometers back; the Jews now control all of the important heights of Golan. Once again Hitler bites a carpet and threats to attack the Palestine pocket with chemical weapons. Churchill OTOH tells him that in this case he'd throw all of Britain's chemical weapons on german cities, so Hitler retreats.

In other ways, the spring of 1942 around the Med is pretty quiet - except for the perpetual bombing against the remaining British oilfields and a few fights in the Nile valley. But now, the Germans have made the Suez canal usable and start to attack with their subs in the Red Sea...

OK, here we go... operation Barbarossa starts!

During the last year, Germany had a lot of time to produce new weapons and train new soldiers to replace the ~20 divisions fighting in Africa and the Middle East. (Their work in Germany now is being done by KZ prisoners, POWs and other foreigners.) The Russian production of weapons has increased even faster, though.

On May 1st, while the Russians celebrate their Labor Day, the attack begins. From the Baltic the the Black Sea, the Wehrmacht crosses the Russian border. Russian cities as far as Sevastopol are bombarded by the Luftwaffe. More than 2000 Russian planes are destroyed on the ground. Stalin is shocked and can't believe Hitler has traited him. Two things are different, though: 1. The Russian bases in Bulgaria are overwhelmed by the Bulgarian army. Bulgaria and Russia are officially at war, other than OTL. 2. Before the attack in Europe begins, German bombers start from their bases in northern Syria and Iraq. Their aim is Baku. Though they are discovered before the bombing begins, Stalin forbids shooting down the Germans - he still believes it's nothing but a provocation. When he knows he's wrong, the oilfields of Baku are nothing more but a sea of fire. At the same day, German-Arab troops cross the Persian border, aiming for the oilfields in SW Persia and Azerbaijan (sp?). Persia starts to mobilize its army, which makes somehow a counterweight for the Arabs fighting on German side.

During the first week, Soviet defense is confused. The mass of the troops that were concentrated too near the border are encircled and defeated. Germany and its Allies proceed much as OTL.

After the few first days, Stalin is finally ready to defend his country against the Nazis. Defense is organized, inept generals are slowly exchanged, and he talks with Churchill and Roosevelt. British troops (from India) and Russians (from Turkestan) march into Persia to help defending it against Germany. They all know: If Hitler should manage to get the oilfields of Baku, he's almost unstoppable. The Russians are still better armed than in 1941 OTL, but they suffer from lacking oil after the bombing of Baku. Roosevelt promises to help.

The first month of the war is still promising for Hitler. The Baltic states are conquered, so are Minsk, the former Polish territories and Bessarabia. Some hundred thousands Red Armists are captured. Still, where they have fuel for their tanks, the Soviets manage to fight the Germans back in some places. But their reserves are running out fast.

In June, the Germans have reached the Dnepr. Some generals propose to stop at this point to preserve the German gains. Hitler declines, he wants the total victory over Russia and is sure that Russia has to break down. He isn't completely wrong: Russia already lacks oil, though they are repairing the oil rigs in Baku (now defended by as many planes as possible) building up new wells in the "second Baku" east of the Ural and start to receive lots of oil from the US via Vladivostok. The next month is going to become the toughest for Russia, though. In this situation, Churchill and Stalin agree for a special joint operation: Some Russian divisions are sent up to the North, to Murmansk, where general Dietl is attacking from Narvik. At the same time, the RN and RAF start attacks around Norway. On June 22nd, they land around Narvik. The German operations in the North are disturbed, and the route from Britain to Murmansk is secure. Hitler is furious, again.

In other places, however, Germany is still winning. SW Persia is in their hands, and only all available powers of Russia and Persia can prevent them from crossing the border in the south. They conquered Kiev and Smolensk, cut Leningrad off and made millions of POWs so far. The "Stalin line" is broken. Hitler thinks that there's enough time and makes the same strategic mistake as OTL: He orders to attack in the South, the Ukraine. However, meanwhile Russia organized enough fuel to make its T-34s running and manages to make the Germans slower. They still proceed in the Eastern Ukraine and the Krim, but time is running away. At the end of August, they finally reach the Donez. Hitler is satisfied and now orders to attack Moscow itself.

This time, the Germans are not hampered by the weather, but by the stronger Red Army. Though they still proceed, they are getting even slower. They break the first defense line from Kaluga to Kalinin, 100 kilometers before Moscow. But again, they have to see that they only come frustratingly close to Moscow without conquering it. The city of Tula with its machine factories south of Moscow is conquered, but the factories aren't usable anymore - they've been brought to somewhere east of the Ural. And now, the raining period is beginning, which is helping the Russians even more.

A few weeks later, however, the temperature is falling, and the Russian mud is freezing. This is the last chance for Hitler to win the war. Everything is thrown against Moscow. The second defense line is broken, the Germans reach the outskirts of the city. There's panic in Moscow. Even Stalin wonders whether he can hold the capital. But for now, he puts down the panic and stays in Moscow. Since he knows that Japan won't attack, Siberian troops are defending the West. Hitler doesn't dare to storm the city, so he orders to besiege it. The Wehrmacht now has reached the borders of the city in the South and the West, but they can't break through. Finally, the beginning winter makes them unable to attack anyway. Only in the South, they make some gains. Sevastopol is besieged, Rostov and the Kuban peninsula are conquered, Voronesh is reached. Then, the attack stops. The Wehrmacht is better equipped for the winter this time, but far from being as good as the Red Army. Things are going to be difficult...

OK. So far we have the Germans conquered more territory than OTL, but still not won, but being stuck around Moscow and in Persia. But now let's take a look on what Japan has done so far.

In May 1942, the Japanese can't win the battle of the Coral sea, as in OTL. For the first time, their advance is stopped. After the Americans deciphered their code, their situation starts to get worse. Though they still advance in Burma and China and even took two Aleutian islands, they also lose at Midway and can't win at Guadalcanal.

In August, they try (desperate times...) a new strategy. Since the Germans are standing in Persia and Britain is in a more difficult situation than OTL, they try a strike against "the soft underbelly of the Allies", i.e. India. All available infantry troops are relocated to Burma.

In September, the new offensive begins. The Japanese army crosses OTL India-Birma/Myanmar border and invades Bengal. Their advance starts slowly, but when they leave the mountains, it gets faster. Churchill is very concerned. If India should fall, the British Empire will be reduced to a shadow of its former self, and the Germans could unite with the Japanese. Roosevelt understands the situation. After having talked with the generals, he decides to send troops to India to support Britain. Since Germany and the US aren't at war, there are many troops available. After the planning has been done, US troops are shipped to India, mostly Calcutta.

In October, there's another critical moment. Japanese troops manage to land on badly defended Ceylon, advancing slowly though. US navy presence in Indian ocean strengthened. In November, Japanese advance in Ceylon and Bengal is halted. Now, Operation Torch (not the same as OTL) begins. The united British-American troops attack the Japanese before Calcutta, driving them back. While Guadalcanal isn't decided yet, the Indian theater looks promising. During the winter 1942/43, Bengal and Ceylon are reconquered. Danger of the Axis powers uniting is averted, for now and forever.