What If...Germany Beats Allies in 1914-15

As some of you may have noticed, one of my ideas for the next production will be a story set in a world where Germany defeated the allies in WW1 and went on to be the dominant power in Europe. France has been serverly weakened - think vichy, but more like post-Franco-Prussian War - while Britain has retreated into the island. Belgum, the netherlands and Denmark have been absorbed into the Empire; Germany has also swallowed most of poland and set up sucessor states in the ruins of Russia. The Ottoman Empire was not involved in the war and is a german ally.

So, what are your thoughts on how the world might develop?

Chris

I was always of the opinion that Germany would become almost "Nazi-Lite." The cultural phenomena of mysticism, ultra-nationalism and militarism were already there. They needed the shock of defeat in 1918 to become as violent as they did, but victory will still provide a small boost. Germany will be ruled as a social democracy, but a rather aggressive and hawkish one.

France will likely become more conservative and less willing to fight Germany - they realize they would have no way to fight them without many very powerful allies.

I wonder how Germany is able to absolutely demolish Russia by 1915, however. Can you explain that? From what I know, Russia would easily survive the war. It will still experience social difficulties, but will liberalize with industrialization and urbanization.

Can't see Russia losing so quickly, even if France does, unless (for some reason) the British sue for peace and don't provide Russia with money and materiel.

Anyhoo. France crippled economically and militarily for decades afterwards; I doubt the Germans would be as "generous" as they were in 1871. Dominance over Benelux and much else within Europe.

Britain peed-off and fighting expeditionary and naval campaigns, but comes to some arrangement with Germany a while later.

Long term?

I'd still think Germany would become a proper democracy with reforms re. appointment of Chancellor; it's not as if the Kaiser had to fight to retain his throne. Far more powerful than previously, although democratic reform (and doubtless taking parts of the Franco-Belgian empire) would temper a lot of colonial desires.

Superdude said:

I wonder how Germany is able to absolutely demolish Russia by 1915, however. Can you explain that? From what I know, Russia would easily survive the war. It will still experience social difficulties, but will liberalize with industrialization and urbanization.

Click to expand...

Not utterly demolish.

The germans switched troops to the east in late 1914 and crushed the main russian army, then pushed onwards into Poland and Russia (Belarus). The Russian Government fell and in the chaos the germans set up allied regimes in Bearus, the Baltics, the Ukraine, while the main russian state imploded and ended up being ruled by the duma and presided over by a relative of the Tsar.

Chris

Chris

I think the key feature would be how Germany treated the rest of Europe. If they handle the areas under their control fairly moderately then there might be a period of stability and wealth. If they suffer too much hubris and seek to dictate everything too much for the benefit of Germany and especially for the German ruling elite then they are likely to see prolonged and probably growing unrest both in the controlled territories and Germany itself. The bigger fight will probably be within Germany itself. After a major conflict requiring widespread commitment, which this is despite the shorter duration, there is generally strong pressure for social reforms. This will not be popular with the Prussian aristocracy and at least some elements of big business. Hence this will be a potential tinderbox, especially if unrest in eastern Europe means a prolonged guerrilla campaign with continued heavy casualties and taxes.

At the same time while Britain will be watching carefully to see to restore the balance of power and while initially cowered both France and Russia will seek to restore their position and secure their full independence, which will be threatened by the massive dominance of Germany. Also it will depend on what happens with Austria, Italy and the Ottomans especially as to whether they seek a secure place in the new hierarchy or feel the need to try and upset it.

I haven't mentioned America as it could be the great unknown. Either clashing with Germany over trade within the greater German sphere or at the other extreme falling back into isolationism. To a lesser degree will Japan also try and come to terms with Germany or strengthen its relations with Britain?

Steve

You know, the whole problem with the question is that your whole setup imo does not work.
That is, a victorious Germany in 1914 or early enough 1915 would not have taken over the Netherlands and Denmark. It's questionable if Belgium would have been included in the empire (a puppet state would be far more likely, imo) and in the east I would at max see the results of the first Brest-Litovsk treaty (that is, an independant Poland and Lithuania, nothing more).

Anyway, with such a complete victory and the Social Democrats having proven that they do indeed support the fatherland, it would short-term embolster the military and reactionary crowd. Long-term, I tend to follow Redbeard's line of thought as I would think Germany goes social democrat. I'd expect prolonged social unrest, but eventually it would turn into a heavily-armed brotherhood of nations, although some nations are more equal than others and antigermanism runs pretty high in some of the "brotherly" countries (consider that at this age, the Social Democrats were still idealistic enough to attempt something like this).

IIRC, Germany wanted to annex the eastern half of Belgium, leave the western half as an independent puppet state, and then draw the Netherlands into a tight economic union.

That might have been war aims from later in the war though.

I suspect that a German victory needs to be quite quick.

Query does France fight on if Paris falls in Sept or Oct 1914.

If France is not in the fight what is the offer to Russia. Basically the sensible thing would have been to say to the Czar, we'll leave you alone if you let us have our way in the Balkans.

However the sensible thing and the German leadership might have not been the same.

It is also worth noting that in OTL it is arguable that the WW1 occupation of Belguim and Northern France in WW1 was MORE Brutal than in WW2 (for anyone not a specific Nazi target)