AH Challange: No War of the Triple Alliance

Silent Cal

Silent Cal

As this tragic, disastrous war that nearly wiped an entire nation off the world's map has become somewhat of an obsession to me:

  1. How could we avoid the WotTA from happening at all? (The first clue, of course, lies with a certain Mr. Lopez)
  2. What (short and long-term) effects would it have on Uruguay, its neighbors, South America, the Western Hemisphere or the world?
Discuss.
 

Tocomocho

Probable POD: No or different Solano López.

Some of the butterflies could be:

- Paraguay continues at a decent rate of industrialization and reachs some ammount of influence in the region. Maybe we see Paraguay taking part in other South American Wars (allied to Chile against Bolivia in the 1880s, maybe?)
- Slavery in Brazil lasts longer, as do the Empire.
- More black population in Argentina.
- Bad feelings between Argentina and Brazil last longer, and possibly lead to a war between the two countries over the status of Uruguay.
 

Gonzaga

The best POD for Paraguay: make Benigno Lopez be the president, as was the wish of Carlos Antonio Lopez, instead of his brother Solano. Or even better, make José Berges be appointed as president. Both were reformists and intelligent leaders, not stupid proto-totalitarians like Solano. Before him, Paraguay always explored well the divergences between Brazil and Argentina. When there was a rare moment when the government of the two countries had more aims in common than against each other (the liberal cabinet in Rio and Mitre in Buenos Aires), Lopez did the worse thing he could do: threatened both countries because of a war against a weak ally (the Blanco government in Uruguay). If he had remained quiet, not initiating a war against his two strongest enemies, soon the liberals would loose the power in Rio, the Conservative party would be in power again, and the relations with Argentina would turn to normality (i.e., competition and some occasional tension).

Whoever is the president, he would need to deal with Brazilian and Argentine interests. From Paraguay, Brazil wanted basically two things: the recognizing of the Brazilian-Paraguayan border on Apa River, and not on Branco River, as the Paraguayans wanted, and free navigation on Paraguay River, as a guarantee for Brazilian access to the province of Mato Grosso. The border claims I believe could be solved by some kind of agreement, maybe including the sharing of the lands.

The Argentinian claims over Chaco were more problematic, I believe, since they changed a lot. The first Argentinian proposal was a border on the Bermejo River, but is was rejected by the Argentinian Confederation in 1855. Then, before the war, there was another claim till the Pilcomayo. Finally, in the Alliance Treaty with Brazil, there was an article that said all Chaco till Bahia Negra should go to Argentina (giving the Argentines a border with Mato Grosso). Maybe the Paraguayans could convince the Argentinians to accept the first treaty.

For Uruguay, both countries wanted it independent. Brazil certainly didn’t want to annex it anymore (but, of course, wanted all commercial privileges possible), neither Argentina. At least no serious politician of both countries wanted it. In OTL, the war was started because Brazil invaded Uruguay to support the Colorados. Mitre supported the Brazilian action, but not with troops (he also didn’t want the Blancos in power). I believe that, without the war, if the Colorados manage to be in power, Uruguay would be more pro-Brazil, at least till the next civil war.
 

Admiral Brown

Calcion said:
Who do you think the Uruguayans would back in that case?
Click to expand...

Well, I would like to say us, becouse we share the same culture (mate, asado, etc.) and the same language (in fact, the Uruguayan accent is almost undistinguishable from the accent of the Argentinian side of Rio de La Plata; and both are in turn quite different from other Latin American accents, or even from the accents of some Argentine provinces) .

But in truth, all depends probably on who's seen as the agressor who tries to anex them or control them. If it's Argentina, they'll side with Brazil, to try to remain independent. If it's Brazil, it would be the other way round.
 

Rockingham

Banned
Well, Paraguay desired an Atlantic port, and the best way to get that would be to side with Brazil.....perhaps an agreement recognizing Brazilian border claims on the Apa River, as well as free navigation on the Paraguay and Parana rivers for Brazil. Most importantly, he would recognize the Colorados and the Brazilian sphere of influence over Uruguay. In return, Brazil would support/accept a Paraguayan war against Argentina, and the Paraguayan annexation of most of Argentinian Gran Chaco and Mesopotamia(the region in between Parana and Uruguay rivers.


Thus, both would benefit. Paraguay would serve as a buffer against Brazil's weakened Arch-Rival, Argentina, while Paraguay would have access to Rio de la Plata and the presumed resources of Gran Chaco.


In the long run, this probaly means a later Paraguay/Brazil alliance to take Bolivian Gran Chaco and Acre respectively, perhaps along with Chile, while Argentina, Bolivia and Peru form a seperate alliance to enforce their rspective aims. Result? Could go either way.
 

Gonzaga

George Carty said:
Can anyone here point me to a pre-war map of the region?
Click to expand...

Here a map, but not very accurate. I'll try to find a better one later.

paraguay.jpg
 
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