Malta is Occupied(?)

[unsunghero]

In 1942, Malta - the key naval/military base for the British in the Mediterranean faced imminent capitulation. They had food for two weeks (which was rationed even more severely than in Great Britain) and faced three times the amount of bombs dropped on them as London during the Battle of Britain. What if attempts to resupply and provision the garrisons/air defences fail, and authorities are forced to surrender to German and Italian units? What would be the result in Great Britain and the international scene? Singapore was seen as a bastion of Imperial resolve in the far East, and it had just fallen, severly damaging morale and British prestige. If Malta falls, will England decide to 'soldier on' even though they have been driven out of the Med (except for Gibraltar and Alexandria)? What will the situation be like for Italy - without the British being present to harrass their convoys, will they be able to send more supplies to Rommel (and will he be able to fight any better)?

[David S Poepoe]

A place like Malta seems more likely to fall due to invasion rather than capitulation.

[Valamyr]

The brits will send subs to the Med to harass Italian shipping (less successfully than with Malta).

It'll give Rommel a chance to capture Alexendria, and possibly Cairo and Suez. Thats his best case scenario.

Either way, at worse he gets pushed back to Italy one year late.

Only way this can be not meaningless in the longer run is, if combined with the fall of Singapore, it brings about enough dissent to get Churchill's head to roll.

With America already in the war, though, its not sure at all that Halifax would just sue for peace. He may fight on regardless. But a couple more military defeats for the allies would make a successfully negociated peace in the west a real possibility for Germany; something that never really existed in OTL with the leadership in London.

Roosevelt would oppose it. America would probably regard Britain in much of the way they regard France nowadays because of that "capitulation".

[unsunghero]

Even if the English send subs to harras Italian shipping, it won't make that much difference - if the Italians/Germans take proper precautions. Further, if Rommel does succeed in taking Alexandria (and Hitler *might*be persuaded to send a few more units if there is a real victory in the Med), it could destablize French/British interests in the middle east. Iraq and Syria might try more successfully to overthrow their pro - French/British governments. Turkey might be even more hard pressed to sign on w/the Axis, or at least provide transit rights to the Germans into the Caucasus. Perhaps in such case the Germans will succeed in seizing the oilfields if it is a two - pronged attack, possibly augmented w/Turkish and Iraqi/Syrian "volunteers."

[Valamyr]

Originally Posted by unsunghero

Even if the English send subs to harras Italian shipping, it won't make that much difference - if the Italians/Germans take proper precautions. Further, if Rommel does succeed in taking Alexandria (and Hitler *might*be persuaded to send a few more units if there is a real victory in the Med), it could destablize French/British interests in the middle east. Iraq and Syria might try more successfully to overthrow their pro - French/British governments. Turkey might be even more hard pressed to sign on w/the Axis, or at least provide transit rights to the Germans into the Caucasus. Perhaps in such case the Germans will succeed in seizing the oilfields if it is a two - pronged attack, possibly augmented w/Turkish and Iraqi/Syrian "volunteers."

Hitler liked to dream about such scenarios but their plausibility remains dubious at best. I think mine is as good as it can get for Germany. Logisitics alone would make a two-pronged, middle-east wide successful attack about as likely of Germany reaching the Urals in 1941, or, say, Sealion.

[Karlos]

1942 is far too late. To have a real effect, Malt has to fall earlier, in 1941, before Irak's uprising, before Syria invasion and before USA enters the war. If the germans wipe the british out of mediterranean and Middle east in 1941, then London may make peace (or not). To be helpfull to barbarrosa, Rommel has to be in Irak at least in spring of 1942. If Blue falls, anyway,the axis troops in Africa would be doomed as soon as the americans arrive with all their planes and ships.

[Kurt_Steiner]

Maybe the Italians could have taken Malta with a determined surprise attack on 10 June 1940. No Italian declaration of war, just bomb and invade without warning. Malta was very lightly defended at that time, hardly any aircraft at all, and minimal naval and air defences - the Royal Navy was still busy evacuating Allied forces from Norway.

[unsunghero]

Originally Posted by Valamyr

Hitler liked to dream about such scenarios but their plausibility remains dubious at best. I think mine is as good as it can get for Germany. Logisitics alone would make a two-pronged, middle-east wide successful attack about as likely of Germany reaching the Urals in 1941, or, say, Sealion.

The political ramifications to the region w/the fall of Egypt and the Suez canal cannot be taken lightly. There will be a power vacuum now that France AND Britain have effectively been eliminated as major powers in the area. Syria w/aligned w/Vicy France not DeGaulle, so they would be 'neutral.' Probably there would be another and more concerted uprising in Iraq if the Germans were close(r) to the region. Anyway, even if nothing else really happens in the Middle East, Turkey will face greater pressure than OTL to 'do something.' If not an outright alliance w/ would be doubtful so soon following the Great War (I'm sure the Turkish leadership would not so soon forget that it was Germany's fault more or less that the Empire was lost), then at least transit rights for Rommel's 'Afrika Korps' after Egypt is finished. Perhaps the Germans might throw some Greek islands Turkey's way, as well as northern Iraq - Mosul, which the Turks had claims to against the British. Further, in the 30's Stalin moved many of the tribes/small nations of the Caucasus around w/ caused alot of deaths and hostility towards the Russians. The area presently inhabited by the Chechens, for example, is not their ancestral homeland. Someone less ideological in command (like Rommel) might be able to persuade these various groups to side w/the Germans. Thus, once Army Group South and Rommel's Corps link up, the Germans have control of Russia's oil. For how long is another matter altogether.