We had an initial discussion here but did not get into knock-on
effects outside Czechoslovakia.
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.history.what-if/browse_thread/thre...
The PoD is a western decision to try to drive into Czechoslavakia as
much as possible in spring 45. They're seeking some degree of concrete influence
in east-central Europe, as they've gotten a little upset with some
Soviet actions in Poland and Romania in February and March, and some
manuevers towards Turkey in March. (If we consider it too much of a
stretch for the Americans to be thinking in such competitive terms vis-
a-vis the Soviets, we could say the American and Commonwealth beaches
are switched on D-Day, and its the British who man the central vector
towards saxony, northern Bavaria and Bohemia). While plunging east
into Bohemia is a less bold way of curtailing Soviet influence than
pshing for Berlin, it should be a bit less costly.
For alot of reasons, this is unlikely to actually earn the west much
influence. Liberation from the west may not wipe away disgust at the
west over Munich. Plus, Munich entirely aside, based on the post-WWI
experience, the Czechs will likely believe that the western allies
will leave and demobilize soon, and the Soviets are the essential ally
against a resurgent Germany. There's not much anticommunism in
Czecoslovakia either. Plus, even if the Czechs were less amenable to
the Soviets, the Soviets could choose to leverage their significant
presence in Slovakia, and probably Moravia, for concessions on Czech
internal and external policies.
But, what might the knock-ons be of this somewhat forward western
policy?
Would the Soviets retaliate, and how? By speeding up satellitization
in east-central Europe? By giving the west more trouble over Berlin
(excludingtem?) or Trieste, by refusing to ask the Greek communists
(or Italian or French communists) for restraint, by being more defiant
on issues related to turkey or Iran. Or, if the west is making faits
accompli in CCentral Europe, might the Soviets do something similar
when they get involved in the Pacific War, for example moving to
occupy Seoul or Inchon or Beijing in advance of the Americans?
effects outside Czechoslovakia.
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.history.what-if/browse_thread/thre...
The PoD is a western decision to try to drive into Czechoslavakia as
much as possible in spring 45. They're seeking some degree of concrete influence
in east-central Europe, as they've gotten a little upset with some
Soviet actions in Poland and Romania in February and March, and some
manuevers towards Turkey in March. (If we consider it too much of a
stretch for the Americans to be thinking in such competitive terms vis-
a-vis the Soviets, we could say the American and Commonwealth beaches
are switched on D-Day, and its the British who man the central vector
towards saxony, northern Bavaria and Bohemia). While plunging east
into Bohemia is a less bold way of curtailing Soviet influence than
pshing for Berlin, it should be a bit less costly.
For alot of reasons, this is unlikely to actually earn the west much
influence. Liberation from the west may not wipe away disgust at the
west over Munich. Plus, Munich entirely aside, based on the post-WWI
experience, the Czechs will likely believe that the western allies
will leave and demobilize soon, and the Soviets are the essential ally
against a resurgent Germany. There's not much anticommunism in
Czecoslovakia either. Plus, even if the Czechs were less amenable to
the Soviets, the Soviets could choose to leverage their significant
presence in Slovakia, and probably Moravia, for concessions on Czech
internal and external policies.
But, what might the knock-ons be of this somewhat forward western
policy?
Would the Soviets retaliate, and how? By speeding up satellitization
in east-central Europe? By giving the west more trouble over Berlin
(excludingtem?) or Trieste, by refusing to ask the Greek communists
(or Italian or French communists) for restraint, by being more defiant
on issues related to turkey or Iran. Or, if the west is making faits
accompli in CCentral Europe, might the Soviets do something similar
when they get involved in the Pacific War, for example moving to
occupy Seoul or Inchon or Beijing in advance of the Americans?