What if the Italians won at the Battle of Adwa? Would Ethiopia become an Italian colony?
Italian victory at Adwa
- Thread starter The Federalist
- Start date
Rockingham
Banned
Unless another power intervened. I think it could be presumed that the Italians do not invade Libya also, with their hands full in Ethiopia, and more hostile Franco-Italian relations (France opposed an Italian Ethiopia, and without Libya Italy will desire Tunisia more). Without an Italian invasion of Libya, the Balkan wars ever do not occur or are subsumed by WW1. The Italian army is not dicredited as much (indeed this may butterfly away their defeat in China). So a slightly stronger Italy, more CP leaning, and a much stronger Ottoman Empire.
Bump. I think this is an interesting ATL, can anyone discuss this further? How would the Ottoman Empire progress with the Balkans and Libya still under their control? And how Ethiopia evolve as an Italian colony? And what could be the result of soured Franco-Italian relations?
Before Italy took it?
No. It was an intergrated part of the Empire, sending representatives to the Ottoman Parliament.
Parliament in the generic sense, like the German Parliament was the Reichstag and the Swedish one is the Riksdag.
Yes, they had one, and yes, it was quite democratic.
Too bad it only lasted two years in any effective capacity.
That aside, Libya had been de facto autonomous since 1711 and had been quite a backwater even before then. Sure, the 19th century saw various Turkish garrisons hugging random portions of coastline, but very seldom did Ankara's authority extend beyond the range of their soldiers' rifles.
I don't think an Italian hold on Abysinia will change things in Italy because, truth be told, the Ottomans weren't gonna be able to keep it and no one else wanted it (remember this is before oil was discovered there). The 1929 Senussi insurgency might not be held down is easily, or the Italians might be willing to offer consessions to them and thus strengthen their position in North Africa. As for Abysinia, I imagine they'll be an early Arbegnoch resistance front, which will no doubt roam quite freely in much of the countryside.
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1) What do you mean by this ?
2) Backwater ? Where's your prove ? [ssst, the capital of Ottoman Empire was at Istanbul !]
3) Irrelevant statement because you haven't yet to prove us why couldn't Ottoman to be able to keep Libya. I don't think the situation there wasn't OK before Italian occupation IOTL. And without any real prove of factor of instability, I think now you've just got a burden of proof.
4) With this argument has fallen, I don't think this assumption will be any longer valid.
1. Throwing a bone to the Young Ottomans. Abdülhamid II established a constitutional monarchy as a condition for his Ascension to power in 1876, but he did away with it as anything more than a ceremonial structure two years later.1) What do you mean by this ?
2) Backwater ? Where's your prove ? [ssst, the capital of Ottoman Empire was at Istanbul !]
3) Irrelevant statement because you haven't yet to prove us why couldn't Ottoman to be able to keep Libya. I don't think the situation there wasn't OK before Italian occupation IOTL. And without any real prove of factor of instability, I think now you've just got a burden of proof.
4) With this argument has fallen, I don't think this assumption will be any longer valid.
2. Pirate enclave for two centuries, Italian colony for 30 years. Backwater.
3.
Erm, I don't rightly understand what you're saying. If your assertion is that the Ottomans could boot the Italians due to butterflies from an Italian victory in a war 16 years earlier well I highly doubt it. Because frankly there's not an awful lot that can be done for a war that lasts twelve months. The best I could see for the Turks is maybe being able to hold onto Rhodes and other islands in Aegean Sea.
4. Try as I might, I seriously have no clue what you're saying.
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For the Ottomans to keep Libya, they should have naval superiority.
They don't have naval superiority over Italy.
As long as a theoretical war proceeds as in OTL, the Ottomans are still likely to lose Libya.
Let's suppose that the OE cannot defend Libya (why should they be able to when they were not in OTL? 'cause of Ethiopia??)
Question: Would Italy with Ethiopia and Libya appear to powerful to France, or Britain? I do not think so.
Would anyone else forestall Italian invasion in Libya?
Improbable, as France certainly had had the time.
Appears as if not much would have changed in the short run (except for the Ethiopeans). Perhaps only after WWII Eth. would have come in British administration, and that would have delayed and hindered the independence movement in Africa a lot.
Question: Would Italy with Ethiopia and Libya appear to powerful to France, or Britain? I do not think so.
Would anyone else forestall Italian invasion in Libya?
Improbable, as France certainly had had the time.
Appears as if not much would have changed in the short run (except for the Ethiopeans). Perhaps only after WWII Eth. would have come in British administration, and that would have delayed and hindered the independence movement in Africa a lot.
They meant that the Italians might be too busy in Ethiopia to try to take Libya, not that the Ottoman Empire would be in a better position to defend it. And, if they get Ethiopia, it is not a given that they would try to grab Libya in any case.
During the 1870's~80's both Italy and France were investing heavily in Tunisia, Worried about Italy getting it. France made a military move.
Italy then began slowly investing in Lybia and Eygpt, And when a chance to take lybia arose in 1911 Italy moved on It.
One of the Reasons was to show up France, This wouldn't have chaged by a Italian victory at Adwa.
An Italian victory at Adwa, is atcally pretty easy,
the Ethiopian King had decided to retreat in two days, and would have been vunable during the retreat. He was worried, about this.
Unfortunitally for the Italians they attack on day one, with a stupid plan that put a part of their force in a weak position.
The Ethiopian scouts reconized what was happening, and the Ethiopians moved to take advantage, and cut them off.
Trying to recover, The Italians then pulled their force out of their defensive position, and sent them against a Ethiopian strong point,
If the Itailians had waited two days, they may have been able to capture the King , Forcing Him to agree to an Italian Protectorete.
Italy then began slowly investing in Lybia and Eygpt, And when a chance to take lybia arose in 1911 Italy moved on It.
One of the Reasons was to show up France, This wouldn't have chaged by a Italian victory at Adwa.
An Italian victory at Adwa, is atcally pretty easy,
the Ethiopian King had decided to retreat in two days, and would have been vunable during the retreat. He was worried, about this.
Unfortunitally for the Italians they attack on day one, with a stupid plan that put a part of their force in a weak position.
The Ethiopian scouts reconized what was happening, and the Ethiopians moved to take advantage, and cut them off.
Trying to recover, The Italians then pulled their force out of their defensive position, and sent them against a Ethiopian strong point,
If the Itailians had waited two days, they may have been able to capture the King , Forcing Him to agree to an Italian Protectorete.