Dole in 1996

[V-J]

Was there ever the slightest chance that Dole could have won in 1996, baring some unexpected ASB-ish event wrecking Clinton's chances?

I already know the answer to that question in my heart of hearts, but I just through I'd run it past people to see what came up.

[Electric Monk]

1996 really is too late for Dole. If he had won in 1988 odds are he would have won again in 1992, and overall I'd say he would have been a better president than Bush 41 or Clinton.

In 1980? Well I'd prefer Howard Baker myself, but Dole would have been a solid president (and he likely would have balanced the budget) and perhaps kept the Republicans the small government party they claimed to be. No supply side economics though, as Dole didn't believe in it.

But back to 1996, can Dole get elected? Probably not. Clinton was doing a perfectly respectable job in managing the place, even if he had given up on big ideas, and Dole would have needed something big.

However, we could certainly try. Our POD would be over Gingrich's government shutdown. Quite simply he doesn't tell the "snub" story. Thus Clinton is forced to accept the Republican budget.

This is a body blow to the Clinton approval ratings, which enter freefall for the next three months. Gingrich's high negatives and lack of an organization prevent him running for president (especially against Dole, given their poor relation) but it still propels Dole to the Presidency.

Perhaps somebody else for VP instead of Jack Kemp (could Pete Wilson swing California into the GOP camp for one last election?) or a better campaign—given that his chances are seen as better—or whatever also help.

Senator Dole is elected President, Speaker Gingrich increases the House majority, and perhaps the Senate slides closer to a Republican pick-up.

Presumably a Balanced Budget law is first up (though Dole, to the horror of House Republicans, would be happy to raise taxes to do it).

[V-J]

This is for a TL I'm doing, btw. I was thinking of having either Pete Wilson or George Voinovich as running mate. I should have been clearer; the POD can be pretty much any time between 1994 and the election.

Thanks for the analysis. Verh interestink.

[Arch-Angel]

I think the Republicans could have won in 1996, but shot themselves in the foot when the nominated Dole. A better candidate could have used all the crap and all the mistakes that had happened since the 94 midterms (where the Dems lost the House for the first time in forever) and rode the wave to victory.

[Nicomacheus]

While this alone wouldn't make the difference, it will help out Dole: Perot's Reform Party merges with the Republican party (probably like how the Democrats did with the Populists in the 1890s/early 1900s by agreeing with all their policy points and nominating the same person for president, not by an actual merger).

I don't know if the Reform Party/Perot would go for it, but if Dole ran on their agenda or one they would favor (Balanced Budget, for example). They might agree to combine forces so as not to split the vote. In 1996, they didn't have the impact they did in 1992 (when they got upwards of 15% of the popular vote), but it was still enough to deny Clinton a popular vote majority.

[Electric Monk]

Originally Posted by V-J

This is for a TL I'm doing, btw. I was thinking of having either Pete Wilson or George Voinovich as running mate. I should have been clearer; the POD can be pretty much any time between 1994 and the election.

Thanks for the analysis. Verh interestink.

Does it make you feel better in your heart of hearts that I came with a plausible Dole victory? (I'd go with Pete Wilson.)

So what's the timeline about?

[MerryPrankster]

A Gingrich victory during the gov't shutdown is a good POD. Juanita Brodderick coming forward earlier might also hurt Clinton.

[V-J]

Originally Posted by Electric Monk

Does it make you feel better in your heart of hearts that I came with a plausible Dole victory? (I'd go with Pete Wilson.)

Well, I was talking about a kind of vanilla 1996... blah!

Originally Posted by Electric Monk

So what's the timeline about?

It's a British 1990's political POD. I was also going to interfere a bit with America's politics (and a few other countries too) and make Dole win in 1996. Gore winning in 2000 is a bit cliched.