Modern Imperial Japan
- Thread starter M79
- Start date
Economically devastated from the American oil and metal embargo. Smaller due to being unable to hold onto its empire. Constantly threatened by a vengeful China.
So they never expanded into China and Korea? They never attack the European holdings in Asia and never attack the US?
Faeelin
Banned
I dunno.
If WW2 ends about the same way as in OTL, then America will be very worried about the Russians doing better in the Pacific. Maybe we'd prop up an independent Japan?
To keep Japan out of WW 2 but keep it's empire, you have to break the Embargo, or have the US lift it.
Breaking it is Hard, England and Holland went along with the US embargo, due to needing US support in the war.
Japan had no way of reaching Europe, and convincing England, Holland to change.
Getting the Embargo lifted OTOH simply means withdrawing from China.
The US had alredy stated that it would lift the embargo if Japan Withdrew.
This is therefore an internal political problem, for Japan.
Difficult given the People and Forces in play, but not impossible for a Knowledgeable AHer.
Some kind of a coup against the Army Backed Militrants, leaving the Navy backed faction in charge.
A realiistic look at the resources available. Either a negoatiated end with the Nationalists, or a scorched Earth withdraw.
By the end of 1941 Japan is back North of the Great Wall. The US reluctinly ends the Embargo.
Japan concetrates on Fortifing Korea, Manchuria, & the Islands* and prepares for the next round.
Without the Supplies and safe haven of Manchuria, the Chicom lose the Civil War.
I would expect theEmpire to experince the same post war baby boom the US and Europe, did, As well as the same '70's baby burst.
With the Coninued veriation of the Elderly the rapidly ageing population is leading to more problem than OTL.
This Japans continued xenophopicism, means fewer international Tourists, with most of Japans tourism concentrated on It's pacific Islands.
The Empires GNP is larger than west Europe's, fulled by the Resoures of Manchuria, the Empire is a ecomonic powerhouse.
During the late 40's into the '50's Japan sent covert aid to the Rebels in Indochina, & Indonesia,
Since their independence in the late '50's they have joined woth Japan to form the Asiatic bloc in Foriegn affairs.
*Washington Naval treaty is dead, Islands get fortified.
Breaking it is Hard, England and Holland went along with the US embargo, due to needing US support in the war.
Japan had no way of reaching Europe, and convincing England, Holland to change.
Getting the Embargo lifted OTOH simply means withdrawing from China.
The US had alredy stated that it would lift the embargo if Japan Withdrew.
This is therefore an internal political problem, for Japan.
Difficult given the People and Forces in play, but not impossible for a Knowledgeable AHer.
Some kind of a coup against the Army Backed Militrants, leaving the Navy backed faction in charge.
A realiistic look at the resources available. Either a negoatiated end with the Nationalists, or a scorched Earth withdraw.
By the end of 1941 Japan is back North of the Great Wall. The US reluctinly ends the Embargo.
Japan concetrates on Fortifing Korea, Manchuria, & the Islands* and prepares for the next round.
Without the Supplies and safe haven of Manchuria, the Chicom lose the Civil War.
I would expect theEmpire to experince the same post war baby boom the US and Europe, did, As well as the same '70's baby burst.
With the Coninued veriation of the Elderly the rapidly ageing population is leading to more problem than OTL.
This Japans continued xenophopicism, means fewer international Tourists, with most of Japans tourism concentrated on It's pacific Islands.
The Empires GNP is larger than west Europe's, fulled by the Resoures of Manchuria, the Empire is a ecomonic powerhouse.
During the late 40's into the '50's Japan sent covert aid to the Rebels in Indochina, & Indonesia,
Since their independence in the late '50's they have joined woth Japan to form the Asiatic bloc in Foriegn affairs.
*Washington Naval treaty is dead, Islands get fortified.
Everybody seems to be forgetting in provided scenarios, of Soviet Union.
In WWII or no, we were not going to tolerate faschist Japan at our flank. And an invasion would have had similar results as our timeline. They had an intact industry and Kwantung Army was not as badly stripped as our timeline, but against victorious Red Army? They stand no chance. America was not going to turn our her ally so soon after the war - not over Japan, which even if needed against Soviet power, were not exactly a loved and cherished ally. And without American help, they are doomed, at least on the Asian mainland. The islands may be safe, but then consider the size of Soviet Air Force. Sakhalin, at least, would be liberated. This Imperial Japan would likely be confined to the islands - Japan itself, Taiwan, and a few Pacific possessions.
In WWII or no, we were not going to tolerate faschist Japan at our flank. And an invasion would have had similar results as our timeline. They had an intact industry and Kwantung Army was not as badly stripped as our timeline, but against victorious Red Army? They stand no chance. America was not going to turn our her ally so soon after the war - not over Japan, which even if needed against Soviet power, were not exactly a loved and cherished ally. And without American help, they are doomed, at least on the Asian mainland. The islands may be safe, but then consider the size of Soviet Air Force. Sakhalin, at least, would be liberated. This Imperial Japan would likely be confined to the islands - Japan itself, Taiwan, and a few Pacific possessions.
Well, it's hard to see them continuing the China war through 1945 if the US oil embargo remained in place, and I've seen it argued fairly convincingly that funding the war + reduced trade was leading to a serious hard currency crunch. Home industries ran on coal, not oil, but there were other rather materials they imported, and the navy and the mechanized bits of the war in China ran on oil. So, if all is as OTL, I'd expect some sort of crisis of sorts before '45 - which is why the Japanese did what they did OTL.
So, if we want the Japanese to keep their grubby hands off the Phillipines, Indonesia, etc., we need more than "don't attack the US". Not invading China in the first place is probably for the best: it's not like Chiang's army had a snowball's chance in hell of throwing them out of Manchuria.
If that's too hard, at least avoid joining the Axis and grabbing Indochina: this may avoid the embargo, although they're still probably going to lose their most-favored-nation trading status. Still going to be running into that hard-currency problem, but by the time it really starts to bite the US is probably going to be going all guns vs. Germany, and a guided tour of a US facility producing battleships like sausages is going to cool any inclinations towards joining the war on the German side.
(Continuing with the "Japanese still invade China" scenario)
Post-war, the Japanese are going to be under a lot of pressure to vacate China, and will be in a state of "maximum danger" from about 1945 to 1950, by which time US anti-Communism should be beginning to trump pro-Chinese sentiment - "if we pull out of China, the Reds will take over!" will be seen as a more acceptable excuse in McCarthy's america than in Roosevelt's. The trouble is, of course, that the Japanese are going to be in economic difficulties well before then, and they don't have a Marshall Plan or OTL's relatively free access to US markets - as allies against the Reds they might still get it eventually, but they're not going to in 1945. Probably at this point they're going to be struggling to find a way to "declare victory and pull out", and a desperate search for a useable puppet will be under way...
(Nightmare scenario: Japanese pull out, and the US moves in to support a theoretically anti-communist government. Vietnam X 20 follows).
Anyhoo, if the Japanese manage to pull out without being, say, kicked out by the Soviets, an even longer Japanese occupation probably improves Mao's chances: the Japanese may end up supporting the Guomindang as the least bad alternative (although will Japanese support be so poisonous that Jiang dare not take it?).
Bruce
Such resources as a dozen or so violent terrorist movements backed by both the USSR and China. Tell me, how much of a profit is Israel currently getting from the West Bank?
Bruce
And Stalin told you this when?
Seriously, the man may have disliked the Japanese, but he was always willing to deal with them: he was OTL selling them Sakhalin oil till 1945. And it's not like a war with Japan won't have it's down side (see below).
Of course, this immediately puts Japan firmly in the US camp, and it really helps provide US and other western anti-Communists with talking points: unprovoked aggression, conquest, establishment new Soviet puppet regimes in Korea and Manchuria - and it looks even worse if this is one of those "Japan doesn't invade China" TLs, incidentally removing any real rationale for Guomindang China to remain good buddies with the USSR (handing over manchuria to the Chinese would help, but not sure if it's in character.)
Bruce
Riain
Banned
Without a war in progress, indeed on the verge of being won I doubt the SU would conduct a TTL repeat of the 1945 campiagn in Manchuria. I think that for Imperial Japan to aviod WW2 the govt would have to change and pull out of China before PH. Imperial Japan would then hold Manchuko, Korea, Taiwan and Indochina, until postwar anticolonialist nationalism kicked in.
And Stalin told you this when?
Seriously, the man may have disliked the Japanese, but he was always willing to deal with them: he was OTL selling them Sakhalin oil till 1945. And it's not like a war with Japan won't have it's down side (see below).
When I was sleeping, yesterday. Seriously, mate, you have no idea how creepy it was, there I was, sleeping the sleep of the just, and then this old guy with a Georgian accent just woke me up, and started blabbing about conquering Manchuria.
We sold to Japan Sakhalin oil under agreement - we have stopped trade with them after 1937, after invasion of China, with only a trickle of trade resuming after signature of Soviet-Japan Neutrality Pact. In fact, our embargo was more substantive than those of any other Western nation right until 1941. I do realise downside - but from Stalin's personality... well, he knew treating the Eastern European countries badly would make the Germans and Nordic nations firmly into America's camp... and it didn't stop him because he considered it his just reward and the Soviet zone of influence... both applies to Manchuria and Korea.
Unprovoked aggression? Well, I am sure something can be arranged. If they are still fighting in China (which likely they would, even if they avoided WWII, no attack on Western nations, they would have been hard-pressed to conquer, let alone pacific, China, Chiang wasn't going to surrender, he didn't after the initial shock and lack of Western support. With Japan concentrating on him, however, we may see Chongqing conquered and the government moving to Kunming... the returning British are going to be getting nervous about now...), it would be simple matter to arrange an incident, or even a declaration of war in support of China against faschist aggressor of Japan (which Chiang was hoping for back in the late thirties). Sure the Western anti-communists are still going to talk about it, but liberating land from Japan (and suppose we find more evidence of, say, unit 731) is not going to sound as bad as 'crushing Poland'.
I don't see any problem with handing land over to Chiang or Mao - if Mao is still around (likely) and strong (not as likely, not the historical 900,000 men under arms as of end of WWII), we might hand it over to him since he would have a realistic chance of keeping it without Soviet assistance, if not, I remind you that we were Chiang's de facto ally and supporter since well before the Flying Tigers was a glint in the West's eyes. And with the West not supporting him against Japan (as presumably they didn't), this Chiang is going to be a lot more bitter, disillusioned, and he may just be willing to become the a new Soviet ally... so why not? The Nationalist party was a long-time friend and had historical ties with the Soviet Union. We still retain considerable leverage with the Nationalists - we have proven our credibility, being the only Great Power to provide substantial help to China in struggle against Japan, and we have influence over Sheng, the warlord in Xinjiang - Stalin in our timeline stopped the formation of a soviet state there because he didn't want to antagonise China - as well as Mongolia. I think it may be an oppotunity to in one swift stroke secure once and for all the Siberian flank.
Why not? You may not be aware, but we had neutrality pact with Japan in 1945, and we cheerfully beat them up, anyway. The war against the Nazis would have been won by then, and probably a bit before, since America would have been concentrating on Germany. Historically we right-wheeled and invaded Manchuria, so I don't see why not.
It is never quite clear if pulling out of China does not mean also pulling out of Manchuria. Despite artificial ambiguity in English, in Chinese it was always clear China means also Manchuria, after all, the place (30 millions population) is over 90% Han.
Faeelin
Banned
To be fair, it is possible to rule another state without having violent terrorist movements all the time. Look at the Warsaw Pact.
Actually, there is an extremely detailed TL devoted to this somewhere out on the internet (it was listed on the web guide on the main page of this sight for a while). The POD is that Japan ends up picking a fight with the Soviets in 38-39, loses terribly, and loses both Manchuria and Korea. The military is thrashed, and with it goes the Junta.
Rather interesting projections, really. I hope its still up.
Edit: Found it: http://www.angelfire.com/gundam/japanese_empire/
Have fun
Rather interesting projections, really. I hope its still up.
Edit: Found it: http://www.angelfire.com/gundam/japanese_empire/
Have fun
Riain
Banned
NFR, I know the circumstances of the SU and Imperial Japan, and I think Stalin used the pretext of helping his allies to invade Manchuria. He was helped vastly by the hollowing out of the IJA over the last few years, without that there is every chance that the Red Army would get bogged down in their advance. In my mind to avoid WW2 Japan would have to pul out of China, perhaps a change of govt in response to the oil embargo. This would leave Japanese strength in the territory it held undiminished, far from the weakened army the Red Army flogged in 1945.
Which was, IIRC, a net economic drain by late Soviet times. And were at least run by bastards of their own ethnicity, rather than by a Japanese colonial elite treating the locals as racial inferiors. Nor do I expect China to be anywhere near as tolerant of the existence of irridenta as West Germany was...
Bruce
Although, I suppose if the rest of China has gone hard-line Red, the Japanese might find enough people afraid for their necks in the case of a Red takeover to run Manchuria (Greater or otherwise) as a puppet regime, although I remain dubious as to it's profitability or long-term stability. Korea, meh. There appears to have been more collaboration than the standard patriotic mythos has it (an awful lot of the ROK early leadership were, shall we say, compromised) but Japanese colonial policy was pretty brutal and unlikely to produce the sort of economic boom that OTL Korea had.
Bruce