Waterloo with Attitude

Macsporan

Banned
Probably the greatest mistake Napoleon made during the Hundred Days was his choice of personel.

He decided to take with him Ney, an emotionally unstable burnout with heaps of guts and almost no brains, Grouchy, totally incompetent, and Soult who as Chief of Staff wrote orders in fluent gibberish.

It didn't have to be this way. There were actually better people available.

What say that Nap has lucid moment some time in May 1815, becomes reconciled to Murat, invites Berthier home and sends the three above mentioned duds off to administrative positions and minor commands?

Bony invades Belgium with Davout as his chief field commander, Suchet in charge of the left wing (the one heading for Quatre Bras), Berthier as Chief of Staff and Murat at the head of the cavalry.

What happens next?
 
Excellent choice of personnel, except there's one problem - Berthier is dead.

Another hassle is the politics of the army. Ney, for all of his rash & idiotic moments, was extremely popular with the soldiers. That makes it hard for Bonney to pension him aoff as it were...
 
Berthier fell to his death from a high window in June 1815. I don't know the exact details though.
 

Macsporan

Banned
Berthier died on June the first. In this TL Nap invites him home in May. He abjures thoughts of suicide and returns to his master's side.

Nap wants competence not popularity and Ney had proved his idiocy over and over again.

So he's off to the Spanish frontier and good riddence.
 
Well if we accept these changes, then Wellington is swept from the field & Blucher is chased back to Berlin.

The aftermath, however, might be an interesting time for Bonney. He might soon have a coup on his hands, maybe not through Ney's plans, but there were plenty of others scheming behind Bonney's back. Davout may, even though he had nothing to do with it, find that he's offered the Throne.
 
Napoleon wins victories early on, but is ultimately defeated by sheer weight of numbers as more Prussian, Austrian, and Russian troops move towards France. Resistance collapses when Napoleon is killed in battle just to the east of Paris. In the aftermath of this, the victors decide to punish France more than they did originally. Spain and the Kingdom of Sardinia get a little more territory on France's southern borders. Corsica also becomes part of Sardinia. French Lorraine is added to Prussia's western territories, and Alsace goes to Austria. Since Great Britain's forces were defeated, and played little role in finally bringing Napoleon down, Britain has less influence in 19th century Europe than in OTL. British isolationism is deeper.
 
"Since Great Britain's forces were defeated, and played little role in finally bringing Napoleon down, Britain has less influence in 19th century Europe than in OTL. British isolationism is deeper"
I doubt it, lets not forget who would be bank rolling the troops from eastern Europe, certainly Britain's barginning position on the contient may have been weakend but economically Britain would still dominate post-war Europe and could still have dictated the terms of peace in the colonial sphere.
 
Macsporan said:
Probably the greatest mistake Napoleon made during the Hundred Days was his choice of personel.

...Soult who as Chief of Staff wrote orders in fluent gibberish.

Agreed that Soult made a lousy Chief of Staff, and bringing Berthier in that position back greatly increases Napoleon's chances in the 1815 campaign. But Soult actually was a very good Corps commander...probably, along with Davout, one of the best. So I think it would be better to give Soult a Corps command rather than send him off to a minor front.

Also, with the change of personnel...does Waterloo even get fought at all? I think that, with Davout or Soult in command at Quatre Bras, Wellington doesn't get the chance to retreat to his hand-picked ground at Waterloo. So the British are either destroyed at Quatre Bras or are pursued closely enough that they are brought to battle on ground of Napoleon's choosing. It won't be at Waterloo.
 
Paul Spring said:
Napoleon wins victories early on, but is ultimately defeated by sheer weight of numbers as more Prussian, Austrian, and Russian troops move towards France. Resistance collapses when Napoleon is killed in battle just to the east of Paris. In the aftermath of this, the victors decide to punish France more than they did originally. Spain and the Kingdom of Sardinia get a little more territory on France's southern borders. Corsica also becomes part of Sardinia. French Lorraine is added to Prussia's western territories, and Alsace goes to Austria. Since Great Britain's forces were defeated, and played little role in finally bringing Napoleon down, Britain has less influence in 19th century Europe than in OTL. British isolationism is deeper.

I agree, Napoleon is doomed at this time no matter what he does.
 
Berthier, IIRC, had gone to Bamberg to get his family, possibly intending to return to France. But he stayed there. He looked out the window (standing on a chair?) and watched the Russian troops marching on France. He went through the window, suicide, accident, murder, who knows? But I'd agree Napoleon was finished anyways. And Davout was needed in Paris- about the only totally trustworthy and able man Nap had at his disposal.
 

Grey Wolf

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Well, you have to remember that Murat is King of Naples, he might come as an ally but as a commander ?

I have often thought that Davout should have been at Waterloo, but came up time and time again against the question of who would have handled what he was needed for elsewhere competently ?

Wasn't Prince Eugene de Beauharnais holding the line on another front ? He is a frequently overlooked commander, would have been a marshal except that Napoleon did not want it to seem he gave them out to family.

Grey Wolf
 

Macsporan

Banned
On to Valhalla?

I used to think Nap was doomed no matter what, but now I'm not so sure.

Consider the following:

Suchet swats the defenders of Quatre Bras on the afternoon of the 15th and takes the crossroad, posting piquets a mile or so north.

Next day he deploys in a strong defensive position and sends D'Erlon and the bulk of his cavalry to Nap at Ligny.

Davout attacks at about 9 AM and turns Blucher's left while pinning his centre. At 2 PM D'Erlon arrives and is launched at the Prussian centre which folds. Davout throws in the Guard and the French cavalry under Murat.

Blucher is routed. Thousands of prisoners are taken and the old Field Marshall barely escapes with his life.

Meanwhile by three o'clock Wellington has assembled a large army before QB but his attacks are thrown back throughout the afternoon. He regains the crossroads at the end of the day but his losses have been heavy and Suchet's forces are still in good shape.

Next day Suchet, reinforced, attacks Wellington at dawn pinning him in place. Davout, Nap and the rest of the French army show up at 9 am and begin working around his flank. Wellington collapses late in the morning and only the rain saves him from complete destruction. He falls back to the coast, abandoning Brussels.

Nap has won a great victory, France rallies behind him and the war goes on.

The rest of the year is spent in a re-run of 1814 with three times the number of French troops.

In the end Nap goes Jacobin and declares a levy en mass, and sweeps the enemy out of France in a tide of revolutionary passion.

Tah-Daaah!
 
Macsporan said:
I used to think Nap was doomed no matter what, but now I'm not so sure.

Consider the following:

Suchet swats the defenders of Quatre Bras on the afternoon of the 15th and takes the crossroad, posting piquets a mile or so north.

Next day he deploys in a strong defensive position and sends D'Erlon and the bulk of his cavalry to Nap at Ligny.

Davout attacks at about 9 AM and turns Blucher's left while pinning his centre. At 2 PM D'Erlon arrives and is launched at the Prussian centre which folds. Davout throws in the Guard and the French cavalry under Murat.

Blucher is routed. Thousands of prisoners are taken and the old Field Marshall barely escapes with his life.

Meanwhile by three o'clock Wellington has assembled a large army before QB but his attacks are thrown back throughout the afternoon. He regains the crossroads at the end of the day but his losses have been heavy and Suchet's forces are still in good shape.

Next day Suchet, reinforced, attacks Wellington at dawn pinning him in place. Davout, Nap and the rest of the French army show up at 9 am and begin working around his flank. Wellington collapses late in the morning and only the rain saves him from complete destruction. He falls back to the coast, abandoning Brussels.

Nap has won a great victory, France rallies behind him and the war goes on.

The rest of the year is spent in a re-run of 1814 with three times the number of French troops.

In the end Nap goes Jacobin and declares a levy en mass, and sweeps the enemy out of France in a tide of revolutionary passion.

Tah-Daaah!


I can go along with a lot of this, but wish to make two comments:

The first is QB. If the Dutch-Belgiums have been evicted, & the French hold the location, Wellington won't attack. Instead he'll withdraw to Waterloo in a manner not too disimliar than OTL.

Secondly, without any chance of help from the Prussians, Wellington won't make a major stand at Waterloo. He'll conduct a fighting withdrawal to Brussells. Don't forget, OTL Wellington was deliberately fighting a holding action at Waterloo until the Prussians arrived. No Prussians means no battle.

What this means in the long run is probably a mess. The Prussians in a wild retreat, whilst Wellington withdraws in an organised fashion & probably won't offer a major battle. He may well indeed abandon the Dutch-Belgiums altogether & withdraw to Britain. If Bonney, however, splits the army in order to pursue both his enemies, things could rapidly change. As such, Wellington may eventually make a stand somewhere north of Brussells, & with superior numbers, may defeat Bonney who now cannot be reinforced akin to the OTL. That, however, doesn't mean to say the war is over...
 

Macsporan

Banned
You are right in that without Prussian support Wellington doesn't fight.

He won't retreat north of Brussels but east, towards the sea and his supply lines.

Nap will divide his army but most of it will be following Wellington with probably just an weak corps or so (20,000 men) under Suchet to chase Blucher out of town.

Obviously this will not go far as the Austrians and Russians are quite close.

The army Nap has with him is quite enough with the help of Davout and Murat to deal with Wellington if he makes a stand anywhere in Belgium.

However if he plays the slippery eel Nap might not be able to bag him before the Austrians and Russians arrive.

On the other hand, if he's in good form he might just succeed. Even if Wellington finds a nice reverse slope position it would be just like Waterloo but without Prussian reinforcements.

With capable French leadership this means Wellington gets cooked.

Wellington would certainly not put his head into that oven.

He would retreat as fast and as far as is necessary, up into Holland if necessary and wait for Nap to break off the pursuit.

All this depends of Wellington escaping on the 17th and 18th.

If Napoleon/Davout/Murat can run him to ground and force him to fight anywhere without Prussian support he his done for.

He had as he said himself, "an infamous army" not capable of fighting alone against Napoleon. Given the poor performance of some Dutch-Belgians in the campaign we can only conclude that he knew of what he spoke.
 
Macsporan said:
You are right in that without Prussian support Wellington doesn't fight.

He won't retreat north of Brussels but east, towards the sea and his supply lines.

Nap will divide his army but most of it will be following Wellington with probably just an weak corps or so (20,000 men) under Suchet to chase Blucher out of town.

Obviously this will not go far as the Austrians and Russians are quite close.

The army Nap has with him is quite enough with the help of Davout and Murat to deal with Wellington if he makes a stand anywhere in Belgium.

However if he plays the slippery eel Nap might not be able to bag him before the Austrians and Russians arrive.

On the other hand, if he's in good form he might just succeed. Even if Wellington finds a nice reverse slope position it would be just like Waterloo but without Prussian reinforcements.

With capable French leadership this means Wellington gets cooked.

Wellington would certainly not put his head into that oven.

He would retreat as fast and as far as is necessary, up into Holland if necessary and wait for Nap to break off the pursuit.

All this depends of Wellington escaping on the 17th and 18th.

If Napoleon/Davout/Murat can run him to ground and force him to fight anywhere without Prussian support he his done for.

He had as he said himself, "an infamous army" not capable of fighting alone against Napoleon. Given the poor performance of some Dutch-Belgians in the campaign we can only conclude that he knew of what he spoke.


I have no doubt that Wellington was concerned about his army, especially the Dutch-Belgium & Hanover units. The rest, however, are rock solid. But he is at a numbers disadvantage with these troops compared to the French. Having said that, this is even more reason not to fight anywhere.

Now considering you have the French, after QB, fighting Blucher, I can't see how they can then, if Wellington isn't going to make his stand at Waterloo, stop Wellington withdrawing in any direction he wants.

Now you've said Wellington will head east instead of north of Brussells, but then you say:

He {Wellington} would retreat as fast and as far as is necessary, up into Holland if necessary and wait for Nap to break off the pursuit.

Well Holland is north of Brussells. Having said that, I agree with your observation here. Wellington avoids battle until the Austrians & Russians arrive, then goes onto the offensive. This situation, though, doesn't look great for Bonney. And BTW - expect the Prussians to reform & head back into the fray.

Bonney up against 4 large armies, all equal if not larger than his? If the above scenario is the case, the end result will probably resemble Leipzig...
 

Macsporan

Banned
If Nap can take out both Wellington and Blucher he will have to do it all again on the Russians and Austrians.

That's a big ask but at least its a fighting chance.

Anything else and things don't look so good for him.

Given the scenario outlined I expect we will hear little more of an independent Prussian army for the rest of the year, as it has just suffered a crushing defeat.

If it reappears at all it will be as a corps in the Austrian or Russian Army.

If Wellington manages to avoid being crushed the he will still lose heavily running away. Rearguard actions can be very costly. Although he can expect reinforcements as the old Penisular army returns from America by this count Nap is facing not four armies but two and a half.

He just might succeed he has the patience to fight a defensive war in the manner of 1814.
 
Macsporan said:
If Nap can take out both Wellington and Blucher he will have to do it all again on the Russians and Austrians.

That's a big ask but at least its a fighting chance.

Anything else and things don't look so good for him.

Given the scenario outlined I expect we will hear little more of an independent Prussian army for the rest of the year, as it has just suffered a crushing defeat.

If it reappears at all it will be as a corps in the Austrian or Russian Army.

If Wellington manages to avoid being crushed the he will still lose heavily running away. Rearguard actions can be very costly. Although he can expect reinforcements as the old Penisular army returns from America by this count Nap is facing not four armies but two and a half.

He just might succeed he has the patience to fight a defensive war in the manner of 1814.


Well I can go along with another Jena, but as Blucher showed even then, he's capable of turning on his pursuers. I suggest, especially if Wellington isn't going to commit to battle, that Bonney leaves a corp or two to observe Wellington, whilst the main French army moves east & eliminates whatever is left of the Prussians.

Not long afterwards, the Austrians could be picked off before the Russians arrive. If this is the case, with the Prussians no longer around, the Austrians suffering a major defeat & in a wild retreat, I'd highly doubt the Russians would continue on the offensive. They may even withdraw from the war before even firing a shot.

This leaves Wellington bottled up in Holland. Either Bonney offers favourable surrender terms & Wellington accepts or Bonney, now that Wellington is more or less surrounded, attacks defeating Wellington in the process.
 
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