Nuclear use poll

[tom]

This is a quantification of an earlier thread of mine. What percentage of timelines use a nuclear weapon in anger within a century of the discovery of nuclear fission (1938 OTL, IIRC)?

[tom]

Dang, I had a poll there too (finally found it). Should have used the word "nuclear" there. Anyone know how we can search all the polls we started, for example? This site will soon become to large to easily go through each post. Again, sorry.

[zoomar]

Presuming we are talking about TL's in which wars are commonly fought, I think it's almost inevitable nukes will be used at least once. Ya gotta see one in action against real people to know why ya don't wanna do it again.

[tom]

Zoomer:
Than we are talking about all TLs except ASB lines. The only thing I can imagine stopping war is the terror of annihilation. If that.

[Max Sinister]

To answer that question, you have to wonder first: How does a TL have to look that people will NOT use a nuke after they invented them?

Some possibilities:
- When they invent nukes, all countries are already living happily in peace, so they don't need it.
- They invent it, but aren't at war in that moment, and until a new war emerges they found out so much about the consequences of radiation they they'll say: "No... we can't do that, not even against our worst enemies."
- Two countries who are enemies discover them almost at the same moment and a Cold War emerges before they can use their nukes.

[tom]

The second is most likely. The first is almost Utopian and won't last anyway, the third requires almost exact timing, and might not work anyway

[tom]

Interesting that this seems more pessimistic than my "mushroom cloud" poll. It gives us a chance to rethink our old thoughts, and they seem to be a little darker.

[Grey Wolf]

Originally Posted by zoomar

Presuming we are talking about TL's in which wars are commonly fought, I think it's almost inevitable nukes will be used at least once. Ya gotta see one in action against real people to know why ya don't wanna do it again.

Yes, this I agree with

The one aspect that is harder to get the head around is that science is not REAL, it is a body of evidence and theories that work form the evidence, that is built upon year after year, century after century. Therefore it would be possible to have a science that never discovers the potential to explode the atom but carries on developing in many other ways, simply because their body of science has not developed in the same way as ours

Grey Wolf

[tom]

G. W.:
That's why I started with the discovery of nuclear fission.

[Grey Wolf]

Originally Posted by tom

G. W.:
That's why I started with the discovery of nuclear fission.

Oh yeah...

Grey Wolf