The Muslim Majority in Ottoman Europe

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

On a long and boring conference call, I calculated the proportion of the population of what was Ottoman Europe in 1876 is Muslim today.

I took all the territory of the empire and used Wikipedia to determine the populations and the % Muslim - when necessary, I delved into individual districts.

The results - Name, total pop, % Muslim, ttl Muslim:

Bulgaria 7,639,000 12.2% 931,958
Macedonia 2,038,514 33.3% 678,825
Bosnia 4,552,198 40.0% 1,820,879
Albania 3,600,523 60.0% 2,160,314
Greece 5,010,656 10.0% 502,693
Kossovo 2,200,000 90.0% 1,980,000
Serbia 865,984 7.8% 67,376
Serbia Sancak 235,567 60.4% 142,353
Mntgro Sancak 190,477 40.8% 77,715
Montenegro 229,459 13.7% 31,322
Romania 971,643 6.9% 67,500
Turkey 11,420,015 99.9% 11,408,595

Total 38,954,036 51.0% 19,869,530

If you leave out today's European Turkey, which is almost a third (!) of the population, you end up with 31% Muslim. By comparison, the Muslim % in 1877 is estimated to have been about 43%.

If you consider the large number of Muslims that were evicted or killed between 1877-1922, that gives you an interesting idea of how the demographics might have gone.

Given that Turkey's population today is almost four times that of the rest of what would have been Ottoman Balkan territory, it seems possible that given a rail network, demographic trends would have made the Balkans a heavily Muslim place over time.

Food for thought.

[Ibn Warraq]

I have to say those figures are quite surprising. According to them between 1877 and 1990 Greece barely doubled in size going from five million to ten million people. That is extremely shocking. Now yes, they did kick out their muslim population but they got a larger number of Greeks(or at least Christians who called themselves Greeks) at the same time.

I belive the same is true of Bulgaria. I wonder why the population of the Balkans grew so slowly in comparison to the rest of Europe.

[Douglas]

Originally Posted by Ibn Warraq

I have to say those figures are quite surprising. According to them between 1877 and 1990 Greece barely doubled in size going from five million to ten million people. That is extremely shocking. Now yes, they did kick out their muslim population but they got a larger number of Greeks(or at least Christians who called themselves Greeks) at the same time.

I belive the same is true of Bulgaria. I wonder why the population of the Balkans grew so slowly in comparison to the rest of Europe.

Genocide, civil war, poor sanitation and general backwardness?

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

Originally Posted by fenkmaster

Genocide, civil war, poor sanitation and general backwardness?

Turkey has been subjected to all that in much worse degrees than any of the others but has increased six-fold in the same period. I think the causes you've mentioned are a factor, but there's more to it than that.

[Hermanubis]

Originally Posted by Abdul Hadi Pasha

I took all the territory of the empire and used Wikipedia to determine the

*GASP!* Wikipedia!

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

Originally Posted by Ibn Warraq

I have to say those figures are quite surprising. According to them between 1877 and 1990 Greece barely doubled in size going from five million to ten million people. That is extremely shocking. Now yes, they did kick out their muslim population but they got a larger number of Greeks(or at least Christians who called themselves Greeks) at the same time.

I belive the same is true of Bulgaria. I wonder why the population of the Balkans grew so slowly in comparison to the rest of Europe.

Well, Greece has grown a lot in size since then - in 1877 it's population was about 1.6M (with half the territory it has now), and by 1920 5.5M.

My post is probably a bit confusing, but that chart is the population today, within the borders of the Ottomans in 1877. The total growth has probably been somewhat higher than just doubling - although it's still way lower than the rest of Europe's.

[Leo Caesius]

Originally Posted by Ibn Warraq

I have to say those figures are quite surprising. According to them between 1877 and 1990 Greece barely doubled in size going from five million to ten million people. That is extremely shocking. Now yes, they did kick out their muslim population but they got a larger number of Greeks(or at least Christians who called themselves Greeks) at the same time.

Come to my neighborhood, I'll show you where they've all gone.

No, seriously, there are something like 1-3 million Greeks in the United States, and the largest single community is right in my neighborhood of NYC (perhaps as many as 200,000, although many have been moving out to the burbs). At least 350,000 Americans speak Greek at home. Easily that many Greeks live in Australia, mostly around Sydney. All told, there may be as many as 7 million "overseas" Greeks worldwide.

Remember, too, that Greece is not the most fertile of countries, that the population is primarily urban, and that much of the best land is in the hands of the church. That counts against large families, but gives Greeks a strong impetus to emigrate.

[Dan1988]

Same thing with the GTA, Léo. We also have Greeks in New England as well. Some people in MA might remember Christy Mihos recently running for Governor.

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

Just looking at the statistics, when we run into these scenarios like "what if Greece conquers Turkey next year" - I can't help but note that just the city of Istanbul alone has a larger population than Greece (11.2M) and Bulgaria (7.6M) combined(!). That's really staggering.

Originally Posted by Leo Caesius

Come to my neighborhood, I'll show you where they've all gone.

No, seriously, there are something like 1-3 million Greeks in the United States, and the largest single community is right in my neighborhood of NYC (perhaps as many as 200,000, although many have been moving out to the burbs). At least 350,000 Americans speak Greek at home. Easily that many Greeks live in Australia, mostly around Sydney. All told, there may be as many as 7 million "overseas" Greeks worldwide.

Remember, too, that Greece is not the most fertile of countries, that the population is primarily urban, and that much of the best land is in the hands of the church. That counts against large families, but gives Greeks a strong impetus to emigrate.

[Hermanubis]

Originally Posted by Abdul Hadi Pasha

Just looking at the statistics, when we run into these scenarios like "what if Greece conquers Turkey next year" - I can't help but note that just the city of Istanbul alone has a larger population than Greece (11.2M) and Bulgaria (7.6M) combined(!). That's really staggering.

Istanbul has a population over 18 million people?!

[Calgacus]

Originally Posted by Hermanubis

Istanbul has a population over 18 million people?!

I think about 10 million, although I imagine the conurbation has more than that.

[Ibn Warraq]

Originally Posted by Leo Caesius

Come to my neighborhood, I'll show you where they've all gone.

No, seriously, there are something like 1-3 million Greeks in the United States, and the largest single community is right in my neighborhood of NYC (perhaps as many as 200,000, although many have been moving out to the burbs). At least 350,000 Americans speak Greek at home. Easily that many Greeks live in Australia, mostly around Sydney. All told, there may be as many as 7 million "overseas" Greeks worldwide.

Remember, too, that Greece is not the most fertile of countries, that the population is primarily urban, and that much of the best land is in the hands of the church. That counts against large families, but gives Greeks a strong impetus to emigrate.

You live in Queens? Good Lord, your commute must be awful. You have my sympathies.

Having said that, yeah, I should have remembered how many Greeks have emigrated. For the same reason, Ireland is IIRC the only European country to have dramatically lost population between the 19th and 20th Century, though obviously famines helped there.

One thing, I'm aware that Greece is now quite urban; in fact half the country lives in Athens, but I thought that was a post-WWII developement.

[Ibn Warraq]

Originally Posted by Dan1988

Same thing with the GTA, Léo. We also have Greeks in New England as well. Some people in MA might remember Christy Mihos recently running for Governor.

Don't forget Michael Dukakis or Paul Tsongas. Yeah there are fairly signifigant Greek communities in SE Massachussetts.

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

Originally Posted by Calgacus

I think about 10 million, although I imagine the conurbation has more than that.

Nobody is entirely sure what the population is, but it's estimated at 20 million. The last census put it at 10M in 2000, and with it's rate of growth it would be 13M now - and that's residents - i.e. registered residents. A broader study had it at at least 16M in 2006, and it's thought to be considerably higher.

Istanbul is organized as a conurbation - the geographical bounderies of its municipalities is larger than the populated area - it even covers a lot of forest.

[Leo Caesius]

Originally Posted by Ibn Warraq

You live in Queens? Good Lord, your commute must be awful. You have my sympathies.

Astoria, in fact. Right in the center of it all. On my walk from the subway I pass by ads in Greek, Romanian, Croatian, and of course Spanish.

My commute is about two hours, both ways, but that's fairly typical for people who live in NJ; it actually helps that I'm traveling against the flow, as I always have lots of room on the train. Grimm's commute is actually something like twice mine.

Originally Posted by Ibn Warraq

One thing, I'm aware that Greece is now quite urban; in fact half the country lives in Athens, but I thought that was a post-WWII developement.

It's largely a post-Lausanne thing, although Greece had some important urban centers (such as Salonica) even before Lausanne turned Athens into a sprawl.

[Hermanubis]

Originally Posted by Leo Caesius

My commute is about two hours, both ways, but that's fairly typical for people who live in NJ; it actually helps that I'm traveling against the flow, as I always have lots of room on the train. Grimm's commute is actually something like twice mine.

Wow. I could get a job in Detroit and take less time then that. (Well, maybe not Detroit Detroit. Something in the Metro area...)

[Hendryk]

Originally Posted by Abdul Hadi Pasha

If you leave out today's European Turkey, which is almost a third (!) of the population, you end up with 31% Muslim. By comparison, the Muslim % in 1877 is estimated to have been about 43%.

So there could be an ATL out there in which southeastern Europe has a Muslim majority?

I must say I don't mind the idea of the Balkans practicing a Bosnian-style pragmatic, laid-back Islam rather than the vociferous Orthodox Christianity often seen in places like Serbia and even Greece.

[LordKalvan]

Originally Posted by Leo Caesius

Come to my neighborhood, I'll show you where they've all gone.

No, seriously, there are something like 1-3 million Greeks in the United States, and the largest single community is right in my neighborhood of NYC (perhaps as many as 200,000, although many have been moving out to the burbs). At least 350,000 Americans speak Greek at home. Easily that many Greeks live in Australia, mostly around Sydney. All told, there may be as many as 7 million "overseas" Greeks worldwide.

Remember, too, that Greece is not the most fertile of countries, that the population is primarily urban, and that much of the best land is in the hands of the church. That counts against large families, but gives Greeks a strong impetus to emigrate.

Actually, the largest greek community is in Melbourne (third Greek city in the world, I'm told).

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

Originally Posted by Hendryk

So there could be an ATL out there in which southeastern Europe has a Muslim majority?

I must say I don't mind the idea of the Balkans practicing a Bosnian-style pragmatic, laid-back Islam rather than the vociferous Orthodox Christianity often seen in places like Serbia and even Greece.

It's quite possible, I think. A lot of people don't realize that the territories in Europe after the Treaty of Berlin (1878) did have a Muslim majority, and every part of it had at lease a Muslim plurality except for Epirus.

It would require a stronger empire for this to happen - a long period of peace, along with development of a transporation network. I would posit that the greater prosperity and economic development of the Balkans, plus a labor shortage there, would encourage migration from poorer parts of the empire.

The empire managed to stay out of wars from 1878-1911. If loss of Balkan territory could have been avoided in 1878, it's quite possible it could have been held permanently.

Unlikely, but possible. The Treaty of Berlin was the final triumph of the national principle against the dynastic and universalist principles. It was also the first time the idea that the "small nations" should have their own states gained any currency, and gave a huge boost to ethnic nationalism.

In 1876, the empire was dealing with a huge revolt in Bosnia and Herzogovina (which was not a nationalist revolt), while simultaneously dealing with a war with Serbia and Montenegro, and a constitutional revolution in Istanbul which saw two Sultans deposed in three months. There was never a better time for a Bulgarian National Revolt, and one was duly lauched. It had no takers, and fizzled out immediately. That's not to say nationalism wouldn't have developed, but nationalism requires fuel, and Bulgaria was immensely proseperous in this period.

[Kidblast]

Originally Posted by Leo Caesius

Astoria, in fact. Right in the center of it all. On my walk from the subway I pass by ads in Greek, Romanian, Croatian, and of course Spanish.

My dad grew up in Jamaica and he says there used to be alot of Greeks living there. He used to work in a Fruit market run by a Greek guy named Sophocles Papasophocles.

I think most moved away because the last time he went there (roughly 12 years ago) it was mostly Dominicans and Puerto Ricans.