What if Lincoln was not elected in 1860 but Seward is elected in 1868 and the start of the Civil War is 8 years later.
Civil war breaks out 1868
- Thread starter Johnrankins
- Start date
I think the war would have ended earlier as the northern states will be even more industrialized. More railways and locomotives to move troops around. More production capacity for guns, powder, ships, etc.
Indian wars are heating up a bit so probably a few thousand(5000?) more enlisted men, who overwhelmingly chose the Union in the ACW.
An order of more than a dozen warships would have been completed, all for the Union.
Increased population including roughly 1.5 million immigrants, all for the Union.
Industrial production up, favors the Union.
Railroads, ditto, including the transcontinental railroad.
Cotton production in India and Egypt up, weakens southern influence in London.
Possibly another slave state has abolished slavery, with Missouri and Maryland as the two most likely.
An order of more than a dozen warships would have been completed, all for the Union.
Increased population including roughly 1.5 million immigrants, all for the Union.
Industrial production up, favors the Union.
Railroads, ditto, including the transcontinental railroad.
Cotton production in India and Egypt up, weakens southern influence in London.
Possibly another slave state has abolished slavery, with Missouri and Maryland as the two most likely.
The war would be short and brutal as due to economic reasons most southern troops would still be using older percussion cap muzzle loading muskets while northern troops would be using breech loading rifles as well as better rifled breech loading artillery as apposed to the older smooth bore guns in use by the rebels. Numbers would be even more in Union favor as well as overwhelming industrial capacity so in short the south would be doomed even more than in OTL.
MrP
Banned
With the USN ships - it depends where they are. If several of the new ones are at Norfolk, then the South may well grab them.
But would that really matter in the long run? The Union could easily and would easily build more and better ships so even if the south got its hands on 4 or 5 ships it really wouldn't make that much of a difference in the long run also at this point Europe is caught up in its own problems so most powers couldn't give a hoot about the south and its successionist movement.
MrP
Banned
Well, if they have the nucleus of a proper navy, then that will influence the deployment of the USN's heavy units. Or the Rebs could go a-commerce-raiding. I'm not saying it'd win 'em the war, or owt. Just that it could go badly for the USN as well as, er, well.
Most likely the USN would be able to bottle the Rebel ships into various harbors in the south not after the Rebel vessels did some damage to Union merchant ships (maybe sinking some European vessels as well?) but at some point the USN draws the over zealous Rebel fleet into an open sea battle crushing it with ease.
Or at least keeping them inside their ports by blockade. Technology is usually even more important for navies then armies.
Max Sinister
Banned
All your other points seconded, but how likely is the latter? The only state abolishing slavery at that time was DC.
Even without Gladstone it may well happen as the Union would be in much better shape from the begining and it is obvious to England that it is to its advantage to back the right side during the American Civil War.
Why exactly would the southern states not arm themselves properly, while part of the US?
Would Egypt and India have large increases in cotton production if cotton from the South had not been cut off by the South itself in an attempt to force Britian and Freance to recognize it?
Why would the North have breechloaders in 1868 without the need for them caused by the Civil War? In 1861, the North had to rifle hundreds of thousands of smoothbore muskets. That only occured because of the war. No reason to invest in breechloaders without the crisis of the war.
Why would the North have breechloaders in 1868 without the need for them caused by the Civil War? In 1861, the North had to rifle hundreds of thousands of smoothbore muskets. That only occured because of the war. No reason to invest in breechloaders without the crisis of the war.
Even if they don't they have much more money to buy them from England or France with. The difference in wealth is even greater then OTL. Besides which does the US want to be decades behind in military tech and thus unable to enforce the Monroe Doctraine if it has to?
67th Tigers
Banned
I was thinking of this PoD yesterday, after reading that Seward planned to let the South seceed, but compensate the US with Canada...
Anyway, the US were reequipping with breechloaders for the Cavalry before the ACW, but there was a decision not to acquire breechloader for the Infantry. In fact, Berdan didn't want Sharps for his sharpshooters, he wanted M1861 Springfields, but the recruiting sergeants had promised Sharps, and he was forced to acquiese.
As for disposition of weapons, in 1860 the modern arms were in fact mostly in the south, after all, the M1861 "Springfield" is being built at Harpers Ferry, and the Springfield machinery is idle....
Edit that to read "Delaware and Maryland" and you may be on to something. On further review, I'd say it's quite likely Delaware would have abolished slavery by then: that gives the DuPont clan that many more years to build the company and turn northern Delaware to the industrial revolution. In turn, that gives an increasing voice to New Castle County in the state legislature (since that county would be the source of real revenue). By 1868, it's entirely possible that Delaware would be every bit as solid a Union state as, say, New Jersey or Connecticut.
Add to that the admission of non-slave states in Kansas, Nebraska and Nevada (granted, the last isn't worth a whole lot) and the Union is a lot stronger than it was in 1861. I doubt the war lasts as long, but it may be a lot more intense and a lot less pleasant for the South when all is said and done: by 1868, attitudes in the north may well have crystallized to the point where it's "no quarter" with respect to the south, and the war, when it comes, is brutally efficient.