Victory at Waterloo
- Thread starter Agentdark
- Start date
Napoleon is pretty much doomed. The Russians and Austrians have too much coming for France to win even after a victory at Warterloo.
Grey Wolf
Donor
You're overlooking Eugene and Davout
Napoleon is not the be-all and end-all in the equation
Best Regards
Grey Wolf
67th Tigers
Banned
Their forces are tiny though. Napoleon has the uncommitted V Corps (Rapp, 23,000) and VII Corps (Suchet, 36,000) as well as the remains of la Armee du Nord.
There is also the Corps de Observation:
Army of the Jura (Lecourbe, 17,800): to the right of VII Corps
Army of the Var (Brune, 14,700): to the right of the Corps of the Jura
Army of the Eastern Alps (Delaborde, 22,500)
Army of the Gironde (Clauzel, 23,000)
Army of the Vendee (Travot, 20,000)
Army of Paris (Davout, 30,000)
To recap, the regular Army was:
I Corps (D'Erlon, 34,000) - at Waterloo
II Corps (Reille, 36,000) - at Waterloo
III Corps (Vandamme, 26,000) - at Wavre
IV Corps (Gerrard, 24,000) - at Wavre
V Corps (Rapp, 23,000) - on the Rhine
VI Corps (Lobau, 27,000) - at Waterloo
VII Corps (Suchet, 36,000) - on the Rhine
(All 4 Cavalry Corps are under Grouchy's command as a single formation)
I Cav Corps (Pajol, 3,900) - half at Waterloo, half at Wavre
II Cav Corps (Excelmanns, 3,800) - at Wavre
III Cav Corps (Kellermann, 5,000) - at Waterloo
IV Cav Corps (Milhaud, 4,500) - at Waterloo
Imperial Guard (Drouot, 30,000) - at Waterloo
If Napoleon crushed the British at Waterloo and the Prussians he would be able to move a great portion of the Armee of the North to join his other forces. At the same time he would have gained the Belgians ,who would have defected as a result of the French victory. This would allow him to face the Austrian next as it would take the Russian a long time to get there.
Yes, The Belgian did not at all care for the fact that they had been put under the control of the Dutch Kingdom and they felt more of a kinship with the French. Some soldiers did defect during the battle and if Napoleon had won they all would have and he would have been able to recruit much more for his army. Indeed the Nassau troops were also unhappy that they were sent to fight the French.
Allied forces leading up to 1815:
1) The Anglo-Dutch Army of the Low Countries, centered on Belgium, commanded by Arthur Wellesley(Duke), 112000.
2) Blucher's Army of the Lower Rhine, in support near Leige and Namur in eastern Belgium, 126000.
3) Schwarzenburg's Army of the Upper Rhine, from Mannheim to the Swiss border, including forces from Austria but also Bavaria, Wurtemberg, Hesse and Saxony, 254000.
4) Linking Blucher and Schwarzenburg was a contingent of units from minor German states, under General Graf von Kleist, 26000.
5) Just off the French area of Grenoble was General Baron Frimont's Austrian Army of Upper Italy, 75000.
Theater Reserves
6) General Graf Michael Andreas Barclay de Tolly, 168000 of the Holy Warriors of the Czar, just passing Leipzig when word of Napoleon's return arrived and immediately heading back to France.
7) The Prussian V and VI Corps and the Prussian Guard, @80000 men, probably not to be called on for serious combat.
Combined forces total 841000 in these armies alone.
Also militia, seige troops, other auxiliary forces, and Field Marshal Baron Biachy with 40000 Austrians in Southern Italy.
French forces of 1815!
1) The Fifth Corps under General Count Jean Rapp and 23000 near Strasbourg.
2) Major General Claude Jacques Lecourbe and the Corps du Jura, with 15110 men including two divisions of the National Guard, to defend Belfort and delay Schwarzenburg.
3) Marshal Louis Gabriel Suchet with the Seventh Corps faced Frimont with 21000 men and was supported by...
4) Marshal Guillame-Marie Brune's Army of the Var(8th Corps) near Marseilles, strength not given.
5) General Lemarque had 7287 men to suppress a rebellion in the Vendee.
6) Generals Clauzel and Dacaen fielded 14000 on the border with Spain.
7) Napoleon with 128000 was going to Belgium, at a place near Waterloo.
1) The Anglo-Dutch Army of the Low Countries, centered on Belgium, commanded by Arthur Wellesley(Duke), 112000.
2) Blucher's Army of the Lower Rhine, in support near Leige and Namur in eastern Belgium, 126000.
3) Schwarzenburg's Army of the Upper Rhine, from Mannheim to the Swiss border, including forces from Austria but also Bavaria, Wurtemberg, Hesse and Saxony, 254000.
4) Linking Blucher and Schwarzenburg was a contingent of units from minor German states, under General Graf von Kleist, 26000.
5) Just off the French area of Grenoble was General Baron Frimont's Austrian Army of Upper Italy, 75000.
Theater Reserves
6) General Graf Michael Andreas Barclay de Tolly, 168000 of the Holy Warriors of the Czar, just passing Leipzig when word of Napoleon's return arrived and immediately heading back to France.
7) The Prussian V and VI Corps and the Prussian Guard, @80000 men, probably not to be called on for serious combat.
Combined forces total 841000 in these armies alone.
Also militia, seige troops, other auxiliary forces, and Field Marshal Baron Biachy with 40000 Austrians in Southern Italy.
French forces of 1815!
1) The Fifth Corps under General Count Jean Rapp and 23000 near Strasbourg.
2) Major General Claude Jacques Lecourbe and the Corps du Jura, with 15110 men including two divisions of the National Guard, to defend Belfort and delay Schwarzenburg.
3) Marshal Louis Gabriel Suchet with the Seventh Corps faced Frimont with 21000 men and was supported by...
4) Marshal Guillame-Marie Brune's Army of the Var(8th Corps) near Marseilles, strength not given.
5) General Lemarque had 7287 men to suppress a rebellion in the Vendee.
6) Generals Clauzel and Dacaen fielded 14000 on the border with Spain.
7) Napoleon with 128000 was going to Belgium, at a place near Waterloo.
Without a doubt the only way that Napoleon would stand any chance would be to destroy the Prussians at Ligny and Wellington at Quater de Bras or Waterloo and then take the bult of the Armee of the Norte to link up with other French forces. Hopefully he would ganin force from the pro-french Belgian community. Still it would not be an easy job.
But the Prussians would have still been able to have more Armies in France before long and Wellington wouldn't have stayed in Europe without Prussian aid. The promise of the Prussians aiding the Allied forces was the only reason he had actually agreed to fight at Waterloo. Without them, he would have evacuated and possibly invaded another part of France. While the other Allied forces would have steamrolled the French, even by numbers alone.
Redbeard
Banned
Gentlemen!
Please take a look at Grimm Reaper's excellent post again, and see what tiny part Wellington's troops took up and why Austria remained the dominant power on the continent for decades yet. From this also follows how insignificant even a crushing French victory over Wellington would have been - apart from the entirely diiferent view we would have on said wars today!
Regards
Steffen Redbeard
Please take a look at Grimm Reaper's excellent post again, and see what tiny part Wellington's troops took up and why Austria remained the dominant power on the continent for decades yet. From this also follows how insignificant even a crushing French victory over Wellington would have been - apart from the entirely diiferent view we would have on said wars today!
Regards
Steffen Redbeard
Assuming the Napoleaonic victories continue, I say another child or two for Napolean with the Habsburg princess and at least two more years of war throughout Europe. The US settles the war of 1812 with about the same results and the UK might sell its claims on Oregon or Rupert's Land to the Americans for needed war materials. More European refugees head for Australia, New World. Technology is driven by war to about five-ten years beyond where it is in OTL as everyone works to give their nations an edge.
Well for a crushing Napoleonic victory at Waterloo you need to change the French command structure. Give Ney command of the Guard, have Davout command the left wing, replace Grouchy, with Suchet and D'Erlon with Travot.
Post-Waterloo I think Napoleon has a good chance of holding back the Austrians(I heard Schwarzenburg had an early case of little mac syndrome). Should Napoleon force the Austrians to retreat he could throw his weight against the Russians.
Post-Waterloo I think Napoleon has a good chance of holding back the Austrians(I heard Schwarzenburg had an early case of little mac syndrome). Should Napoleon force the Austrians to retreat he could throw his weight against the Russians.
Anaxagoras
Banned
IIRC, Napoleon left Davout in Paris because he was afraid of being stabbed in the back by the anti-Napoleonic elements in the city, as had happened in 1814. Davout was the general he most trusted. Still, all things considered, it probably would have been better to have him at Waterloo. It would not have been bad if he had accepted Murat's offer to command the cavalry again, the recent past notwithstanding.
I think it's important to point out that the Allies were not nearly as united in 1815 as they had been the previous year. The Russians didn't trust the British or the Austrians. If Napoleon smashes Wellington and Blucher in Belgium, there is a strong possibility that the coalition against him collapses.
Doubtful to say the least. Prussia wanted Napoleon dead, Britain was funding as much as it had done before, Austria and Russia were on the horizon with massive Armies. No one wanted Napoleon back in power and as we saw from Napoleon's own campaign in 1815, I doubt that he still had the skills needed to see off this threat.