The Cold War with no US in Europe

One small thing that's generally gotten lost to history is that the US, even as late as Eisenhower, had intended to withdraw all its troops from Europe and leave European defense to the Europeans. The Cold War led to the US deciding to stay, but a steady source of conflict was the US's view that the European countries weren't pulling their share of defense.

So what if the US had withdrawn its troops by Ike's third year? Costs too high, consequences be damned and all that. With no real American tripwire in Europe, how goes the Cold War?
 
At some point the russians would try to neutralitze the USA ( read: prevent a nuclear response ) in some way and then just roll us over.
 
Depends whether Germany was still demilitarised. Otherwise the Soviets might have guessed - probably correctly - that if the Germans couldn't delay any snatch invasion of W Berlin and/or W Germany, neither the USA, UK or (latterly) France would risk a nuclear war over it, which would've been the only credible deterrent.

Of course, I'm not convinced the USSR had any intention of acquiring further territory in Western Europe - and would have invaded only as a result of other tensions - but they certainly could have leant more heavily on Germany especially and NATO in general.
 
At some point the russians would try to neutralitze the USA ( read: prevent a nuclear response ) in some way and then just roll us over.

The French and Brittish would still have nukes making the war a bloody affair. I think that the Europeans would spend more on defence on the continent and less on colonial wars making more places messy.
 

Faeelin

Banned
Hrmm. Does this make the EDC considerably more important? Or would Europe have not responded?

Does this give us Susano's dream of Federal Republic backed with nuclear weapons?
 
Hrmm. Does this make the EDC considerably more important? Or would Europe have not responded?

Does this give us Susano's dream of Federal Republic backed with nuclear weapons?

Depends. Could Germany produce nukes so soon after WW2 without a Soviet intervention? Who in Europe would peacefully accept a nuclear Germany so soon after?
 

Faeelin

Banned
Depends. Could Germany produce nukes so soon after WW2 without a Soviet intervention? Who in Europe would peacefully accept a nuclear Germany so soon after?

They might, if it's a joint nuclear umbrella of France, Belgium, Germany, Italy, and Holland.
 
They might, if it's a joint nuclear umbrella of France, Belgium, Germany, Italy, and Holland.

By which I think that would be largely under French control, at least during the 1950s (and they didn't get their nukes online until 1960), assuming the British do their own thing. I can't imagine the French during that period ever wanting German control over nukes, no matter how great the threat.
 
We might find out what would happen real soon if we get further
tangled up in the Middle East, forcing us to withdraw most if not
all our troops and the Russians returning to their old ways.
 
We might find out what would happen real soon if we get further
tangled up in the Middle East, forcing us to withdraw most if not
all our troops and the Russians returning to their old ways.

Unless the Russians go completely insane they will not attack Europe any time soon. These days they would have to conquer all of Eastern Europe before they even get to Western Europe and both the French and the Brits have nukes. There weapons are inferior and their economy is in shambles. There would be a great liklihood that the government is overthrown when things start to go bad which probably would be soon.
 
If we assume that the US leaves the Western Europeans with a sizeable nuclear starter kit, Kruschev probably doesn't invade: he was fond of brinksmanship as a politcal tool, but he wasn't entirely reckless, and was very interested in building up the USSR, a objective somewhat set back by a number of it's larger cities going poof. OTOH, without the US having troops on the ground, he will probably feel free to indulge in some bullying: I'd expect an effort to force a "solution" to the West Berlin problem.

Longer-term, if the US doesn't reverse it's stand, NATO is eroded and western Europe becomes to some extent "Finlandized": it's too small to be able to afford to play games of nuclear chicken with the USSR, [1] and if there was suspicion OTL that the US wouldn't be willing to trade New York for Bonn, what will be the thinking in a TL where the US can't be bothered to maintain boots on the ground? European politicians step softly when it comes to criticizing the USSR, investment flows eastward, Soviet gas and oil goes west. However, they stop short of allowing the USSR to dictate to them their foreign policy or their economic arrangements: they have a nuclear deterrent, and intend to keep it.

Eurocommunist parties probably do better than OTL, but by 1954 European economic recovery was well enough underway that any outright Red coups are unlikely: some Communist parties may even end leading governments in coalition with other groups of the Left, but will probably continue to respect the voters choices. There will be a lot of dirty deals and compromises, as in OTL's relationship between East and West Germany, but overall democracy and capitalism will survive in the West. The deterrent nuclear arsenal will remain larger than OTL, but there won't be any all-out militarization of Europe: it isn't really affordable, and would badly increase tensions.

On the Soviet side of things, there will be less tension without US and Soviet troops face-to-face, and facing a generally conciliatory Europe rather than a block lead by the often (rhetorically at least) belligerent US. Western Europe can be "milked" to some extent, and the Useful Idiots will work hard to maintain a generally friendly can't-we-all-get-along line. Of course, the mere existence of a much richer, democratic Europe to the west is a real irritant, in that no matter how polite the rhetoric remains, it is a reproof to the Soviet system by it's very _existence_. As long as the Soviet economy is still growing, and there are still victories in space technology or in the third world (does a US which doesn't consider Europe worth defending ever bother to get involved in Vietnam, one wonders?), this can be overlooked: a war would be dangerously destructive, cut off a big source of funding, be horribly bad propaganda-wise, and leave the main enemy, the US, intact. And simply letting Soviet troops go west would leave the army infected by discontent once they realized how very much better those Europeans had it.

This situation may break down once the Soviet economy starts to break down: with lower military spending and more European investment the USSR may do better than OTL, but it's still an utterly idiotic economic system. After the seventh or eight year of near-zero or negative growth, rolling those dice might look better...or might a move into the middle east look better?

The UK may be a bit of a wild card - by the 50's it was sinking in on the British that the UK couldn't really make a go of it as a power on it's own, and that the Commonwealth was a rather weak reed compared to the old Empire, but there was some reluctance to become part of Europe. That may be stronger in this TL, and the UK may try to reestablish some sort of "special relationship" with the US, if they will have them. Indeed, as NATO ties weaken, the US may be scrambling to do damage control: if Europe neutralizes, the UK as "airstrip one" becomes rather important...

Of course, the original POD is a bit ASB-ish. Possible scenario: Korean war expands into the War To Liberate China, which will be rather expensive. Europeans are a bit snippy over the use of nuclear weapons against the Chinese, and aren't cooperating at _all_ in contibuting to the 10-million man army which the US calculates will be needed to hold the country down until it can be deCommunified...

Bruce

[1] It's not just money here: I believe I read somewhere it would only take half a dozen good-size H-bombs to take out over half the UK's population.
 

Valdemar II

Banned
Longer-term, if the US doesn't reverse it's stand, NATO is eroded and western Europe becomes to some extent "Finlandized": it's too small to be able to afford to play games of nuclear chicken with the USSR..

Here I would disagree, West Germany, France, Benelux and maybe Italy (if Italy stay in the western camp) would have a Economy, which would be big enough to compete with the Russian. What I think we will see a more federal Europe with the 6 first EEC countries slowly becoming a federation with a larger army and Nuclear arsenal which is big enough to lie the USSR in ruins.
 

Thande

Donor
Here I would disagree, West Germany, France, Benelux and maybe Italy (if Italy stay in the western camp) would have a Economy, which would be big enough to compete with the Russian. What I think we will see a more federal Europe with the 6 first EEC countries slowly becoming a federation with a larger army and Nuclear arsenal which is big enough to lie the USSR in ruins.

If the break with the US comes as early as the late 40s, I think it's likely that Britain would be a founder member of the EEC: the Tories favoured it in OTL and, unless de Gaulle sees the UK as a trojan for the US, Europe probably can't afford such a split.
 

Valdemar II

Banned
If the break with the US comes as early as the late 40s, I think it's likely that Britain would be a founder member of the EEC: the Tories favoured it in OTL and, unless de Gaulle sees the UK as a trojan for the US, Europe probably can't afford such a split.

I do not agree Britain would look toward the Empire and it will at least be in 1960 before they give that idee up.
 
IMGO,

the west would seek a compromise on germany and eastern europe. not good for germany and eastern europe.
 
If the break with the US comes as early as the late 40s, I think it's likely that Britain would be a founder member of the EEC: the Tories favoured it in OTL and, unless de Gaulle sees the UK as a trojan for the US, Europe probably can't afford such a split.

Well, the original post was "Ike's third term", which would be 1955. Late 40's would be a weaker and more unstable Western Europe, of which the UK would be sort of the natural leader.

(Not that the UK would necessarily like that:

I http://books.google.com/books?id=Vv...EfJ5&sig=Xb4MuOQWktGjyV90rEp_M-I2MDI#PPA38,M1

"Britain and European Integration, 1945-1988"

"At the same time, however, they were determined to withstand American pressure for British involvement in far-reaching forms of European integration. It was feared that this latter course of action would afford the Americans an opportunity to withdraw from Europe and leave Britain with a host of insupportable commitments there." )

I think the timing is of some importance: Harold Macmillan applied to join in 1961, but I dunno how much support EEC membership had before his 1957 election. OTL, wasn't the UK invited to join the European Coal and Steel community in the 50's, but turned it down? Didn't a Tory Foreign Secretary call the EEC "much ado about nothing" or something similar during that time period?


Valdemar, with their larger social services burden, the Europeans are going to find it rather harder to spend proportionally as much as the US OTL: in 1955 OTL, W. Germany, France, Italy, and the UK spend on their military about 24% as much as the US, by 1965 about 34% as much. How easily are they going to be able to triple or quadruple their military budgets and still maintain OTL growth rates? They _don't_ want an arms race with the USSR. [1] A convincing nuclear deterrent, and enough troops to at least make a Soviet invasion look somewhat expensive: I find it unlikely that they try and match the USSR tank for tank and man for man.

Bruce

[1] and without the US being based in western Europe, the USSR is probably going to spend less than it did OTL: unless, of course, Western Europeans work to make themselves look like a threat...
 

Faeelin

Banned
If we assume that the US leaves the Western Europeans with a sizeable nuclear starter kit, Kruschev probably doesn't invade: he was fond of brinksmanship as a politcal tool, but he wasn't entirely reckless, and was very interested in building up the USSR, a objective somewhat set back by a number of it's larger cities going poof. OTOH, without the US having troops on the ground, he will probably feel free to indulge in some bullying: I'd expect an effort to force a "solution" to the West Berlin problem.

Man, this would play hell in the press, though.

What about France doesn't fall in 1940: the next few years are spent repeating WW1 in northeastern France, then Stalin strikes them in the rear.

::Cackles::

So, whoever is leading Germany probably surrenders as fast as they can, giving you a larger Germany. But, little US involvement; it's busy firebombing Japan, thank you.

This all seems very FAT.

This situation may break down once the Soviet economy starts to break down: with lower military spending and more European investment the USSR may do better than OTL, but it's still an utterly idiotic economic system. After the seventh or eight year of near-zero or negative growth, rolling those dice might look better...or might a move into the middle east look better?

Maybe earlier attempts at liberalization?
 
Man, this would play hell in the press, though.

What about France doesn't fall in 1940: the next few years are spent repeating WW1 in northeastern France, then Stalin strikes them in the rear.

::Cackles::

So, whoever is leading Germany probably surrenders as fast as they can, giving you a larger Germany. But, little US involvement; it's busy firebombing Japan, thank you.

Well, that could definitely give you a "cold war without the US": does Stalin assimilate Poland to the USSR? Romania? Much depends when and by whom the first nukes are developed.

This all seems very FAT.

Well, no French state-sponsored cannibalism.

Maybe earlier attempts at liberalization?

Less of a Soviet confrontation with the US, less pressure to reform? OTOH, perhaps Kruschev stays in office longer here. (No WWII As We Know It, another situation, and the post-Stalin accounting may be quite different.)

Bruce
 

Faeelin

Banned
Well, that could definitely give you a "cold war without the US": does Stalin assimilate Poland to the USSR? Romania? Much depends when and by whom the first nukes are developed.

I *think* Britain is more likely to get them before Russia, with or without America. No?

Less of a Soviet confrontation with the US, less pressure to reform? OTOH, perhaps Kruschev stays in office longer here. (No WWII As We Know It, another situation, and the post-Stalin accounting may be quite different.)

Who knows? But the European example is clearly more successful than Russia's, and with less bellicosity, maybe they're more willing to give it a shot? It's better than nuclear wear, after all.
 
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