What if Austria had won the Second Italian War?

The Second Italian War was a conflict in Italy (who knew!) between the French (with Piedmont/Sardinian assistance) and Austria. The Austrian defeat led to an idependent Italy pieced together from the larger Italian states and captured Austrian territory, and also led to a weaker Austria. If Austria won, it would end up with more territory in Italy, as well as a stronger military and economy. This in turn, means that the Austro-Prussian war won't turn out the same, so Austria-Hungary won't happen. Now you have Prussia and Austria as two major German powers in the late 1860s. So what will happen when Bismarck and other Prussians incite the German Unification? Assuming the Greater Germany Solution is taken ITTL, you have a much more capable German Empire, with the combined military and economic efficiency of OTL Germany and a better Austria. IOTL Russia supported the Hungarian rebels in Austria. Would they do the same here? How would WW1 (if it happened) turn out? Any ideas/suggestions/corrections?

I assume you mean the Second Italian War of Independence. The Second Italian War usually refers to a conflict between between France and Naples (with Spain, Milan, and others) starting in 1499.

I agree that Austria would hold on to their Italian possessions, but I am not sure the Austro-Prussian war, if it still occurs, would end differently. Prussia's advances in weapons and tactics could still be decisive.

It would be a huge blow for Nappy III and the Sardinian dynasty, but it might only mean that Italian unification would come later. Maybe by Garibaldi?

Yes, I was referring to the Second Italian War of Independence, my mistake. Anyway, I also agree that the Prussians do have much of an advantage. But the loss won't be as brutal and not enough for the Austrian empire to become the Austro-Hungarian empire. And I also agree, Italian unification will happen, but later.

Max Sinister said:

It would be a huge blow for Nappy III and the Sardinian dynasty, but it might only mean that Italian unification would come later. Maybe by Garibaldi?

Click to expand...

I dunno. Ovrethrowign the Sicilians is one thing; a band of revolutionaries taking Lombardy is quite another, isn't it?

I'm not sure Italian unification is ineveitable.

My guess is that internal affairs will lead to the reduction of Austrian involvement in Italy. With the French pushed out, Italy is for once more or less rid of larger powers bossing it around. So it Sardinia ends up swallowing all the other states, there you have the Italian Unification. However, I'm not an expert on Italian history, so if that's wrong, someone please point it out. The original focus of this TL was German Unification and possible inclusion of Austria.

A-H would not be interested in acquiring more territory in Italy.
What really happens after an Austrian victory in 1859 very much depends on the magnitude of such a victory: it's quite likely it would not be an overwhelming victory. Maybe Nappy just quits because of the very high losses. IMHO, it will be a reconfirmation of the status quo ante (even if it is quite likely that the Emilian duchies will go up in flame as per OTL, and Romagna the same).

I would not be surprised if this would lead to a strong repression (not just in Italy, but in Hungary too), and a return match in 1866 or thereof (when Prussia and Bismarck go for the throat of A-H), with the same result as per OTL.

AHFanatic said:

With the French pushed out, Italy is for once more or less rid of larger powers bossing it around.

Click to expand...

Not necessarily. Except for Sardinia, all Italian states had foreign dynasties which were connected either to France or Austria.

That's true, but Nappy III and the Austrians have been pushed out, so Sardinia is more or less the most powerful Italian state. With France out of the picture, my bet is that Sardinia is going to try to fill the power vacuum e. g. either uniting Italy or conquering the other states.

Another point worth approaching is how this victory would influence the transition from Austria to Austria-Hungary and the German Unification. I've always wanted to see a TL where Austria never becomes A-H and joins the German Empire. That would make for a very interesting early twentieth century.

AHFanatic said:

Another point worth approaching is how this victory would influence the transition from Austria to Austria-Hungary and the German Unification. I've always wanted to see a TL where Austria never becomes A-H and joins the German Empire. That would make for a very interesting early twentieth century.

Click to expand...

The DoD Austria is a good example .

What's DoD?

The best written AH-world.

link: https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=8170

Very interesting. Not exactly what I had in mind for this TL, but interesting nonetheless. Anyway, I read that in OTL, Russia supported the Hungarian rebels after the Austro-Prussian War. If Austria wins the Second Italian War of Independence, its military won't be crushed as much in the Austro-Prussian War. So if we assume the Austro-Prussian War is a stalemate, then the Austrian military is still able to fight the Hungarian rebels with considerable success.

An another note, a stalemated Austro-Prussian War would result in a sooner German Unification. So Austria and Prussia both annex most of their sattelite German states. So in Germany you see two major powers, which both want one thing: to be in control of Germany. They finally agree to join together and form the Greater German Reich, much behalf on the clever diplomatic footwork of Bismarck. So the German Empire was officially formed on July 14, 1870. A few days later, several influences provoked France in declaring war on the new German Reich. In OTL, Prussia handled France by itself. This time, the bulk of the Austrian army was also on the battlefield, ending the war in mid-December 1870. The German Empire had demonstrated its skill and was officially recognized by France, Britain, America, and several other great powers of that time.

So one more factor to consider in this TL is Russia's reaction. With both Prussia and Austria combined, the balance of power in Europe is tipped. In OTL, Russia supported the Hungarian rebels in Austria. So they do just that but considerably more so ITTL in an attempt to humble the new rival. I expect that if the Russians smuggle in weapons and even volunteers, pretty soon their support is going to found out by the Germans. So on 1875, after a year or two of stabilizing and organizing the empire, the Germans declare war on Russia for supporting the rebels. The Ottoman Empire, which had been fighting Russian-inspired revolts in the Balkans as well, joined on the side of the Germans. Romania, Serbia, Bulgaria, and Montenegro joined on the side of the Russians. After some conflict, the Germans and Turks win in late 1876. Northern Romania and Ukraine south of L'viv and west of the Dnieper are annexed into Germany, giving the Reich access to the Black Sea.

Turkey annexed Montenegro and Bulgaria. Serbia's military power was significantly reduced and was turned more or less into a German/Turkish puppet state. That's my TL so far. Any ideas/corrections/suggestions?

I like it AHF

Thank you very much. I'm going to turn it into a full-fledged TL later, but for now it's just some ideas tossed around.

Okay, after a brief vacation, I've decided to start my first full fledged TL on this board. Here goes:


1859

Second Italian War of Independence
After almost declaring war on Piedmont-Sardinia, Franz Josef of Austria decides that it was best not to get on the bad side of Italian-sympathetic France and Britain. The Sardinians want an excuse to conquer more Italian territory, and attempt a daring military move in Austrian territory. However, things go awry, and on May 15th, Austria officially declares war on Sardinia for not respecting their territorial boundary.

France is unwilling to offer their help because their treaty with Sardinia didn't include the possibility of a Sardinian attack. The Austrian army in Northern Italy is much larger than the Sardinian force, and the first few engagements result in the destruction of almost half the Sardinian army and the deaths of several leading commanders. By mid-June, it was apparent that Sardinia was not going to win this war. Napoleon III entered the war on June 18th, after deciding that the Sardinians needed all the help they could get. The Austrians won two more victories by early July, when the bulk of the French army arrived. After several bloody battles in northwest Italy, Turin is captured by the Austrian army and the French and Sardinians are defeated. Sardinia is humiliated and buys its lost territories back for a large sum after Austria decides keeping that land would be too costly.

The war ends with a much more experienced Austrian army returing to Central Europe to fight Hungarian rebels. The money raked in from the spoils of war was used to train and arm new recruits into the Austrian Army as an internal war broke out.

1860-65
The Hungarian Revolution
During the war in Italy, Hungarian rebels rose up against their Austrian rulers in the hopes of either restablishing the Kingdom of Hungary or forming a confederation between Hungary and Austria. After the Austrian army returned victorious from Italy, the rebellion went downhill for the Hungarians. Not only was the Austrian army more experienced, but they also were rapidly building up their armed forces with the spoils of war from Italy. By 1863, Central Europe under Austria was a system of forts, military bases, and army camps. The revolt was ultimately crushed when the last major group of rebels was wiped out in Croatia in late 1865. In 1864, the Austrian army assisted Prussia in the Prusso-Danish War for Schleswig and Holstein. The war was a quick victory over the Danish, and resulted in heavy payments to Prussia and Austria.

Austro-Prussian War
In 1866, Prussia and Austria became at war due to a complex web of causes. Unlike OTL, the Italian states (they haven't united yet ITTL) didn't participate due to their major defeat just a few years before. Another advantage that the Austrians have ITTL is that they have been economically and militarily improving since 1859 and have had their army mobilized already. The war was fought on the open plains of central Germany, and resulted in a stalemate on most fronts. The war on the Austro-Prussian border bogged down to a trench war, with neither side making major movements or captures. By the end of the war later in 1866, both sides had divided OTL modern Germany just about evenly. The after effects of the war resulted in the Northern German Confederation being formed with OTL borders except that the border with Austria went about straight east to west from Belgium to Saxony (which was annexed by Austria). Austria formed the South German Confederation, made up by all the states and territories not claimed by Prussia's North German Confederation.

For the next few years Austro-Prussian relationships warm up and they enter an alliance. In 1868, Bismarck executes some clever diplomatic footwork that resulted in North and South Germany unifying. Venetia and Lombardy are sold to Sardinia in order to forge an alliance with them. Until the Franco-German war, the newly formed German Empire experienced an economic boom as ports on the Baltic, North Sea, and Aegean all brought in resources to the same empire. Railways are built from 1868 to 1870 connecting regions in former Austria and former Prussia. The Annexation of Luxembourg in 1870 triggered the Franco-German War, the newly formed Empire of Germany's first war.

Franco-German War
In 1870, Germany annexed the city of Luxembourg, which triggered Napoleon III of France to declare war on the recently formed country. The war went much as it did in OTL, except it ended several months earlier than in OTL. After the siege of Paris, the French surrender in November 1870. The war results in Alsace-Lorraine being ceded to Germany.

After a period of prosperity, Europe began experiencing an economic depression. In order to combat this, the Germans begin a series of projects such as the expansion of ports on the Aegean, the construction of several new warships (to combat unemployment) and increased trading with Italy (united during the Franco-German War), Turkey, and several territories in the Balkans. The trading with Turkey resulted in a German-Turkish alliance, signed in 1875.

German-Russian War
The German-Turkish Alliance threatened the other Great Powers of Europe, such as France, Britain, and Russia. France and Britain both had overseas trading in the eastern Mediterranean, but they bribed the Germans and Ottomans not to interfere. Russia began supplying pro-independence rebels in the Turkish Balkans and Hungarian rebels in Germany with weapons and volunteers. In 1877, Germany and Turkey declared war on Russia. Romania joined Russia as an ally, but didn't intend to actually fight. In June, 1877, Germany invaded Romania and conquered the region. In the south, Turkish soldiers (with heavy German assistance) fought the rebels. By late 1878, the Germans had conquered all of OTL Poland, Ukraine west of the Dnieper, and the Baltic states. Germany once again excercised its military power. Several naval battles also took place in the Black Sea, resulting in the German fleet taking port in the captured ports of Romania and Ukraine.

Bismarck arranged a close trading partnership with Turkey. In 1880, Germany bought Libya and Tunisia from Turkey for a high price. The German Navy in the Mediterranean swells in size soon after the purchase of Tunisia and Libya. German North Africa is formed in 1881, much to the protest of the British in Egypt to the East and the French in the west. However, the French fear another devastating war with their more powerful neighbor, so make no demands. In the Pacific, German New Guinea was founded in 1882 (the colony consists of the entire eastern half). The German colonial empire grew even more as the Phillipines were bought from Spain (the Spanish decided that the colony wasn't worth it due to rebellion) and Portuguese Timor in 1885 and 1888, respectively. Heavy German trading in Hawaii took place, but American influenc in the islands prohibited the Germans from turning it into a colony.

Heavy involvement in Africa by the Germans caused the Herero people and several other tribes in other colonies to rebel. This was reacted to in a quick manner. The Herero were starved, poisoned, attacked, and forced to work in factories along the Namibian coast near Windhoek. Other tribes were dealt with in a similar way. By the 1890s, most of the German colonies had been quelled, due to the efficiency of the genocidal tactics and sheer fear of the Germans. Germany had also forged a tight alliance with Turkey and a loose one with Spain, Portugal, and Italy. The turn of the century seemed to promise yet more expansion for the German Empire.

The turn of the century in TTL was much different than any we'd see in OTL. Germany controls most of Central Europe and commands an overseas empire that includes Tunisia, Libya, all of eastern New Guinea, east Timor, the Phillipines, Taiwan, and has trading interests in Hawaii and all around the Pacific. The Boxer Rebellion in China has much more participation of Germans in it, and the Germans are granted Jiaozhou Bay as a protectorate, similar to OTL Hong Kong to the British. The German Pacific Squadron is much larger, and has bases in Samoa, New Guinea, China, Taiwan, and Timor. The German Indian Squadron also is much larger, with several armoured cruisers and destroyers. In South Africa, German weapons are routinely smuggle in for use by the guerrilla Boer rebels.