Mussoliniwank

[Sir John A.]

I saw that "A Fitter Italian Military" thread by Croesus and it got me thinking;

What would it take for Fascist Italy to live up to its dreams of Imperial Roman Glory and become the superpower Mussolini wanted it to be?

That could happen if Italy was a more advanced country with a more advanced military similar to Germany (ASB) and it manages to conquer and hold on to Egypt, Greece, Malta, Tunis, Cyprus, Gibraltar, Sudan, British East Africa and parts of France during the war or if Mussolini takes some other path.

If he does take another path, what could it be? Joining the Allies against Hitler or just staying neutral or even betraying Hitler when the tide of war turns against the Axis? What could he do alternatively?

And I'd like to explore what happens if the former happens, him conquering the Mediterranean (even if its completely ASB). How would Fascist Italy do as a superpower, not a puppet German power, a real superpower capable of independent action, either in a total Axis victory scenario where Italy's in a Cold War against Germany or in scenario where Nazi Germany is defeated but an Italian superpower survives and is in a Cold War against the U.S. and/or the Soviet Union. Again, the whole thing is completely totally ASB but still worth exploring.

In this stage Fascist Italy matures and becomes a modern superpower that owns the Mediterranean and a large part of Africa, has a powerful navy that patrols it and nukes. Mussolini said that "In order for a country to be healthy, it must go to war at least every twenty five years" but as a superpower in a delicate Cold War atmosphere with the thought of Mutually Assured Destruction (with either Germany, America or Russia), they can't possibly follow that saying. So again, How would Fascist Italy do as a superpower? How would it expand its influence in other parts of the world?

[Markus]

In case you want a no-ASB scenario, what about this:
In the 1930´s the Anglo-Italian Oil Company discovers ... oil in Libya. Having become a filthy rich oil sheik, Benny decides to stay out of the war. Yeah, military glory does make you popular, but a shitload of money does the same and it is much safer. So, Benny spends the war selling oil to whoever can afford it and when he dies in 1955 he is THE most beloved and popular leader Italy ever had.
In case this is too peaceful, Benny is going to spend a lot of the oil money to modernize his military. Thus the modernisation process is going to be completed sooner, making him a much stronger enemy in 1940 or ally in 1942.

[von kressenstein]

and the italian army manages to go 14 seconds instead of 8 before surrender right?

he doesnt get the expanded italian empire out of that deal though.. but it would be the safer option for the man

[B_Munro]

No WWII, and Mussolini (a sci-fi fan in this AH) is the only one really to invest in nuclear research? Given the probable rapid duplication of the gadget and difficulties in delivery and mass production, you won't get "Mussolini takes over the world", but he might at lest pinch France's African empire and some bits of the Balkans. Holding on to it afterwards, however...

Bruce

[Croesus]

ASB's perform advanced personality replacement on Mussolini. They exchange political opportunism for fiscal responsibility, totalitarian impulses with parliamentary values, the fantastic for the sober. He's a changed man. There will be no Duce, just a PM that, as a man of his times, guides Italy through turbulent water.

ASB's change the Romanian governments insistence on Romanian oil being refined in Romania and the state hydrocarbons agency AGIP enjoys a substantial boost to it's capital reserves. Funds are available to start making industrial use of Italian natural gas reserves and Italian factories start converting from oil burning to gas burning. Italy reinvests into Romania and it is the start of a beautiful thing; Hitler can only watch in envy.

The Italo-French rapprochement is not derailed by silly adventures in Abyssinia and the two maintain a united front with regards to Austria. German economic penetration of central/eastern Europe is less effective. Italy does not intervene in Spain beyond it's means and takes care not to aggravate France. Gradually, eventually Italy and Germany head for a confrontation in the Danube basin as Germany acts as the champion of revisionism while Italy underwrites the Little Entente and ensures Romania remains within it's orbit. This latter strategy also changes the Soviet orientation to the Balkans and provides for a subtly different basis for Germano-Soviet relations.

AGIP has the capital to buy out it's partners in the Mosul oil fields and commences industrial exploitation of the Sirte basin. Italy avoids wasteful colonies that cost more than they provide with only Eritrea and Libya in it's fold. France and Italy form a continental pact and arrayed against it is a German-Soviet pact; Britain is freed up to pursue a Scandinavian policy as well as buttressing it's position in the far east.

When Germany and the Soviet Union crush Poland, Italy and France declare war while Britain remains neutral. The battleground is Central/Eastern Europe.

Croesus

[Wendell]

Starting with the anschluss, Mussolini becomes increasingly uncomfortable with Hitler. Even though he goes along with the Munich Pact, Mussolini becomes concerned about any potential German challenge to Italy's borders on demographic grounds. The Italians begin secret talks with the British during the summer of 1939. Then, after Germans do so well in the 1940 campaign, the British decide to entertain the Italian offer.

In return for neutrality, or a future alliance, Britain will cede to Italy British Somaliland, and part of British East Africa. Britain will further recognize the King of Italy as Emperor of Ethiopia. Additionally, Britain is to place pressure on Yugoslavia, the Gree French, and Greece to make limited concessions each to Italy immediately. In return, Italy withdraws any and all claims on Malta, Egypt, Palestine, or Anglo-Egyptian Sudan. Additionally, Italy will not join the war on Hitler's side, and will instead build up its military and solidify its control of its various possessions.

Hitler, without distractions in the Balkans, launches Operaion Barbarossa in 1941 with many early successes. After the Americans join the war in december of 1941, the pressure and disire builds in Italy to declare war on Germany.

The war ends in Europe earlier following a successful if slow allied campaign launched from Italy into Germany. HItler has to adjust his efforts in the East to prevent attack from the South. This effort, however, ultimately fails as Hungary changes sides, prompting war with Romania. Bulgaria then enters the war on the allied side, hoping to gain Dobruja from Romania.

[MarkA]

The British delegation to the LON follow orders from London and vote against Abyssina's admission. Italy takes the slave owning and feudal aggressor 'nation' of Abyssinia and the UK and France agree to adjust their colonial borders in the region to amke it and Italian Somaliland viable colonies. All this is not ASB but what the British policy was in OTL.

Eden is pulled into line and told his personal feelings toward Mussolini is irrelevent and to show some professional diplomatic skill and curtousy towards Il Duce. Both the UK and France agree with Mussolini that some strong show of forceagainst Hitler either in 1935 over the reintroduction of conscription or in 1936 during the reoccuapation of the Rhineland sees Italian bombers and fghters (superior to German models at the time) covering the advance of French and British troops and the collapse of Nazi rule.

After that, he is dissuaded from adventures in Spain and the Italian economy remains fairly stable. He allows calmer heads to manage the domestic policy while he tours the world feted and adored by the masses. On his returns to Italy mass demonstartions of popular support are organised. His vanity is soothed and his meddling limited.

Italian military and aeronautical technology was quite advanced so if they use their dvantages they could earn lots of foreign money and the economy becomes one of the most important in the world particularly with the US, France and Britain still recovering from the GD.

[LordKalvan]

Originally Posted by MarkA

The British delegation to the LON follow orders from London and vote against Abyssina's admission. Italy takes the slave owning and feudal aggressor 'nation' of Abyssinia and the UK and France agree to adjust their colonial borders in the region to amke it and Italian Somaliland viable colonies. All this is not ASB but what the British policy was in OTL.

Eden is pulled into line and told his personal feelings toward Mussolini is irrelevent and to show some professional diplomatic skill and curtousy towards Il Duce. Both the UK and France agree with Mussolini that some strong show of forceagainst Hitler either in 1935 over the reintroduction of conscription or in 1936 during the reoccuapation of the Rhineland sees Italian bombers and fghters (superior to German models at the time) covering the advance of French and British troops and the collapse of Nazi rule.

After that, he is dissuaded from adventures in Spain and the Italian economy remains fairly stable. He allows calmer heads to manage the domestic policy while he tours the world feted and adored by the masses. On his returns to Italy mass demonstartions of popular support are organised. His vanity is soothed and his meddling limited.

Italian military and aeronautical technology was quite advanced so if they use their dvantages they could earn lots of foreign money and the economy becomes one of the most important in the world particularly with the US, France and Britain still recovering from the GD.

It's the most obvious way. Throw in some luck with oil exploration in Lybia and Italy has also the money to fund the army/navy/air fleet reorganization.
No war in 1939: the next "big" conflict is going to be when Stalin moves west (1943 or 1944?), and it's a matter of having or not the "BOMB"