Around 450 B.C. Hanno the Navigator sets out from Carthage to explore and colonize West Africa. OTL, he never gets further south than Gabon, if even that far. 200 years earlier, though, a Phoenician expedition commissioned by Egypt circumnavigated Africa starting from the Red Sea, so they know that there's more to find further south and that the waters are navigable. Suppose that sometime after 400 B.C., ATL Carthage starts much more extensive exploration and exploitation of the west coast of Africa, looking for gold, ivory, timber, and perhaps slaves. The eastern empire is likely still doomed with the coming of Alexander the Great (unless he gets butterflied away somehow...), but the western empire plausibly now has more resources to put into defense and conquest against Rome and further conquest in North Africa.
So, circa 400 B.C., Carthage starts putting more effort into trade and exploration in West Africa, with major settlements at the mouths of the Senegal and Niger rivers. Disease limits the growth of mainland colonies, but they're able to isolate themselves (a bit) by settling the islands of the Gulf of Guinea, and the larger amount of gold available from the Niger more than makes up for its greater distance from the Mediterranean so that it grows more rapidly than the Senegal colony. The Cape Verde islands are
sparsely colonized as a way-station, and by 300 BC they're at least aware of the Canaries and Azores, but mostly ignore them.
Aside from butterflying away the births of some Carthaginian historical figures, it seems to me that the first opportunity for major divergence in the Mediterranean is during the First Punic War. By 265 B.C., colonization has been underway for 135 years, settlements are scattered all along the coasts of Mauritania and Senegal and the Bissagos Islands and a trade mainly in ivory, timber, and gold (and maybe the occasional exotic animal) is well established. The island colonies are almost purely ethnic Punic, while on the mainland more extensive intermarriage with the more disease-resistant natives has produced a significant mixed-race population. Back in the Mediterranean, the increased wealth and ship building capacity from West African trade allows Carthage to significantly increase its navy over OTL, allowing them to maintain control of Sicily (details? am I right in assuming that a stronger navy, and potentially access to a larger mercenary force, could hold off the Roman attack and prevent Hiero from switching sides?). Without a Roman victory and with the West African trade and Sicily remaining under Carthaginian control, Carthage isn't struggling to pay off war debts, and the Mercenary War doesn't happen. With Hannibal Barca butterflied away, the attack on Saguntum never takes place, so the Second Punic War is gone, and Roman/Carthaginian relations improve. While Carthage secures its position as the major sea power in the Mediterranean, Rome continues building its empire in the north.
(Hm. I wonder about war with the Greeks, particularly over Crete. Also, I've mostly ignored the possible effects of disease, except for putting a limit on the rapid growth of West African colonies. Which might not be a good thing to do, as new plagues could have a major effect on history.)
By 200 B.C. Carthage is into a new wave of expansion. Several expeditions have been sent over the Sahara and northwards along the western coast of Europe, while new expeditions launched from the Niger colony have begun to found settlements in South Africa and rounded the Cape of Good Hope to explore the eastern coast.
Comments/criticisms/expansions?
So, circa 400 B.C., Carthage starts putting more effort into trade and exploration in West Africa, with major settlements at the mouths of the Senegal and Niger rivers. Disease limits the growth of mainland colonies, but they're able to isolate themselves (a bit) by settling the islands of the Gulf of Guinea, and the larger amount of gold available from the Niger more than makes up for its greater distance from the Mediterranean so that it grows more rapidly than the Senegal colony. The Cape Verde islands are
sparsely colonized as a way-station, and by 300 BC they're at least aware of the Canaries and Azores, but mostly ignore them.
Aside from butterflying away the births of some Carthaginian historical figures, it seems to me that the first opportunity for major divergence in the Mediterranean is during the First Punic War. By 265 B.C., colonization has been underway for 135 years, settlements are scattered all along the coasts of Mauritania and Senegal and the Bissagos Islands and a trade mainly in ivory, timber, and gold (and maybe the occasional exotic animal) is well established. The island colonies are almost purely ethnic Punic, while on the mainland more extensive intermarriage with the more disease-resistant natives has produced a significant mixed-race population. Back in the Mediterranean, the increased wealth and ship building capacity from West African trade allows Carthage to significantly increase its navy over OTL, allowing them to maintain control of Sicily (details? am I right in assuming that a stronger navy, and potentially access to a larger mercenary force, could hold off the Roman attack and prevent Hiero from switching sides?). Without a Roman victory and with the West African trade and Sicily remaining under Carthaginian control, Carthage isn't struggling to pay off war debts, and the Mercenary War doesn't happen. With Hannibal Barca butterflied away, the attack on Saguntum never takes place, so the Second Punic War is gone, and Roman/Carthaginian relations improve. While Carthage secures its position as the major sea power in the Mediterranean, Rome continues building its empire in the north.
(Hm. I wonder about war with the Greeks, particularly over Crete. Also, I've mostly ignored the possible effects of disease, except for putting a limit on the rapid growth of West African colonies. Which might not be a good thing to do, as new plagues could have a major effect on history.)
By 200 B.C. Carthage is into a new wave of expansion. Several expeditions have been sent over the Sahara and northwards along the western coast of Europe, while new expeditions launched from the Niger colony have begun to found settlements in South Africa and rounded the Cape of Good Hope to explore the eastern coast.
Comments/criticisms/expansions?