President John McCain

1994 George W. Bush Loses the Texas Governors Race He decides to give up Politics following the defeat.
1995 Saddam Hussein is overthrown in a Clinton administration supported Coup. The New Leadership declares Iraq the confederation of Iraq and installs a relatively stable republic
2000. Without the opposition of George Bush John McCain Wins the Republican nomination. In November he defeats Al Gore to become the 43rd President of the United States
What Happens next?

man that changes a awful lot

first of all the republic of Iraq is not going to be friendly to us,
anti americanism is so high that action would be political suiside.
That said the government may be helpfull to us in non obvious
ways like passing on information about terrorism.

John Mc Cain posses a lot more skill and experence in the political
arena, so hes going to react to 9/11 in a very differnt manner
the patriot act does not happen, John Mc Cain will crush anyone
who remotly suggests tourture as a option the mans been through
tourture hes not the kind of person to aprove its use on others

The main effect of the 1995 coup is to prevent the 2003 invasion

also do you think the republic would be less friendly than Hussein? Remember we helped them overthrow him. And we are not an occpying force.

Glass Onion said:

1995 Saddam Hussein is overthrown in a Clinton administration supported Coup.

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Extremely unlikely.

Well it did almost happen, see "See No Evil" for my inspiration for that point

The Main thing is I want to prevent the invasion

In theory - if you want to prevent the 'invasion' all that needed to happen OTL was for Sadam to agree to the 'Inspections'. It needed mean he had to like it, but just to fully co-operate. Now it may be that some of the stipulations for co-operation were intended to get a No! But, nevertheless if he had, and the UN Inspection Team were not impeeded in any way - when a Report of No WMD was produced it could be believed.
After all, at the moment, who knows, there could be a nuclear arsenal buried out in the desert or indeed under one of his Palaces!?

All he had to do was comply with UN Resolutions.

I have a question for Jasen777 what is it that you find unlikely. Saddam being overthrown, Clinton supporting the coup or both?

Glass Onion said:

1995 Saddam Hussein is overthrown in a Clinton administration supported Coup. The New Leadership declares Iraq the confederation of Iraq and installs a relatively stable republic

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I find the idea of Saddam Hussein being overthrown in a coup ridiculous. He kept everyone who might potentially be a threat under close watch and surrounded himself with people who were members of his clan to make sure any potential successor would be someone he knew. In addition, he was utterly rutheless and most people would have been terrified to try a coup because if it failed not only would they be tortured and killed, but so would their families.

Glass Onion said:

I have a question for Jasen777 what is it that you find unlikely. Saddam being overthrown, Clinton supporting the coup or both?

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Both. Ibn Warraq covered the first one. Launching coups is not how Clinton handled foreign policy. when he wanted to do something direct about Iraq he launched air strikes.

okay as everyone is saying the 1995 coup is impossible I'll scratch it. Assuming the rest of the timeline happens what happens next? Who would be McCains VP. I doubt it would be Cheney. Maybe Jeb Bush? Any ideas?

Glass Onion said:

okay as everyone is saying the 1995 coup is impossible I'll scratch it. Assuming the rest of the timeline happens what happens next? Who would be McCains VP. I doubt it would be Cheney. Maybe Jeb Bush? Any ideas?

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I think you'd want to come up with an explanation as to how McCain wins. Yes, he was much more popular with the public and at the time most democrats freely admitted that he would have been a much tougher opponent than Bush, but I think it would have been extremely difficult for McCain to win the Republican nomination.

In OTL, the South Carolina primary, where Bush beat him by almost 20 points, destroyed him, so I think you have to come up with way he beats Bush. The only way I can think of is if Bush gets hit hard, and I mean hard by a scandal that destroys him.

A few ideas for the potential scandal. Months later, just before the national election, it wound up being revealed that he'd been arrested for drunk driving causing around several million evangelicals to stay home and not vote. That's the on of the main reasons 2000 was so close. You could also posit that some reporters tak a much closer look at the possibility that he went AWOL which in states like South Carolina with huge numbers of military veterans could hurt him, particularly if he wasn't able to spin the story nearly as well as he did in OTL.

As for who McCain picks for VP, I doubt it would be Jeb. If he wins the message he would get is that being percieved as a maverick is what helped him win. I think he'd be much more likely to pick another Republican much closer to him in terms of politics and personality. Hagel would actually be a good choice.

In this timeline Bush loses the Texas race in 1994 and gives up politics. So he isn't running in 2000 without Bush I think McCain has a much better shot. I can't see any of the other candidates pulling a south carolina on him. Also I don't know who else could have ended up as the nominee without W besides McCain

alright McCain/Hagel it is now would he have defeated Gore? I see him hammerring Gore about that Buddist temple thing. But still would this election be as close as otl 2000. Or would it be a clear McCain or Gore win

Bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran. Bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb, BOMB IRAN! Let's take a stand, bomb Iran. Our country's got a feelin'. Really hit the ceilin', bomb Iran. Bomb bomb bomb, bomb Iran.

I think McCain winning is a good enough POD to stand on its own two feets. We don't need to add stuff to it.

Yes but in order to have McCain win I somehow have to prevent South Carolina from happening. Hence my POD is George Bush losing the Texas Governor Race and abadoning politics as yet another failed venture. As a result McCain does not face the opposition of Karl Rove and Wins the Nomination and the Presidency

Well, from that point (assuming we've given up on the Saddam thing) everything depends on 9/11. Does it still happen?- probably; it was just so damn unlikely that it's hard to see how a political change could affect it.

So, McCain 9/11- yes or no? and take it from there.

Yes, unfortunately I think 9/11 or some major terrorist attack like was unavoidable by the time McCain takes office. So I say it happens. I think McCain would like OTL Bush. order an invasion of Afganistan. I'm not sure about Iraq though. Any idea abot what President McCain would do differently?