Chris Oakley
Banned
Describe the circumstances under which a second war could have broken out between China and Japan in the late 20th century.
AH Challenge: Second Sino-Japanese War
- Thread starter Chris Oakley
- Start date
The Sandman
Banned
North Korea invades South Korea, and begins lobbing missiles towards Okinawa and Tokyo to hit US military bases. A number of the missiles are off target, killing a large number of Japanese civilians. Working under an interpretation of Article 9 that allows for self-defense, the Japanese declare war upon North Korea in response, and begin sending troops to aid defense of South Korea. When China comes in to support North Korea, probably once the North Koreans are pushed back well north of 38th parallel, Japanese and Chinese troops end up fighting each other on the Peninsula.
maverick
Banned
Technically, it would be the Third Sino-Japanese war.
There were wars in 1895 and 1937, and the Toyotomi Invasion of Continental asia in 1592.
How about this:
1989: China sends the army at Tiannanmen square, killing hundreds. Then Bush thinks: ' We beat them Soviets, we can beat the chinese too', and thus a hardline policy towards China begins.
The hardlines in the Chinese Military/Communist party now feel cornered and desperate. Without the US/western markets, what will they ever do? so they ally with North Korea and begin to form an anti US-Japanese-western alliance.
The crisis over the Ryuku archipielago and other islands in the eastern seas lead to naval skirmishes and an arms race/militarism/end of Article 9.
Finally, the more aggressive China is 'forced' to invade Hong Kong and Okinawa, while supporting a North Korean invasion of the South.
There were wars in 1895 and 1937, and the Toyotomi Invasion of Continental asia in 1592.
How about this:
1989: China sends the army at Tiannanmen square, killing hundreds. Then Bush thinks: ' We beat them Soviets, we can beat the chinese too', and thus a hardline policy towards China begins.
The hardlines in the Chinese Military/Communist party now feel cornered and desperate. Without the US/western markets, what will they ever do? so they ally with North Korea and begin to form an anti US-Japanese-western alliance.
The crisis over the Ryuku archipielago and other islands in the eastern seas lead to naval skirmishes and an arms race/militarism/end of Article 9.
Finally, the more aggressive China is 'forced' to invade Hong Kong and Okinawa, while supporting a North Korean invasion of the South.
Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy
Banned
And what is the nature of the crisis over the Ryukyus? Besides handwavium.
Even though Hong Kong will be returned in '97, it's not being used against China, and it has huge economic value that will be compromised by an invasion?
I think a Second Korean War would be best. Not a current one, though. Perhaps in the late Soviet era.
Say that in the 80s, NK begins seriously developing nuclear weapons. SK (with supposed Japanese aid) bombard NK silo-site. NK go crazy and begin wildly bombarding SK cities (including Seoul). SK wisely responds with minor skirmishing and aerial action.
Washington and Moscow agree not to intervene, hoping that the least casualties would occur in a simple two-nation war. Beijing, however, gives heavy lend-lease to Pyongyang.
NK (somehow
) overruns SK and manages to capture two-thirds of the state. While SK is pleading for foreign aid, NK move massive amounts of troops south to the shoreline.
Just to be sure, the American forces in Japan prep their bases for an invasion, air war, or missile strike. NK interpret this as preparations for agressive action, and bombard. Just like in Sandman's TL, Japanese civilias are killed by the thousands. Japan goes to war (with American supplies, weapons, and training). In a matter of months, Japanese troops are by the Chinese-Korean border.
Just to be sure, the Japanese fortify the border against any Chinese attack. The Chinese interpret this as an act of agression, and invade.
This probably deteriorates into WW3, however. Bummer
Say that in the 80s, NK begins seriously developing nuclear weapons. SK (with supposed Japanese aid) bombard NK silo-site. NK go crazy and begin wildly bombarding SK cities (including Seoul). SK wisely responds with minor skirmishing and aerial action.
Washington and Moscow agree not to intervene, hoping that the least casualties would occur in a simple two-nation war. Beijing, however, gives heavy lend-lease to Pyongyang.
NK (somehow
) overruns SK and manages to capture two-thirds of the state. While SK is pleading for foreign aid, NK move massive amounts of troops south to the shoreline.Just to be sure, the American forces in Japan prep their bases for an invasion, air war, or missile strike. NK interpret this as preparations for agressive action, and bombard. Just like in Sandman's TL, Japanese civilias are killed by the thousands. Japan goes to war (with American supplies, weapons, and training). In a matter of months, Japanese troops are by the Chinese-Korean border.
Just to be sure, the Japanese fortify the border against any Chinese attack. The Chinese interpret this as an act of agression, and invade.
This probably deteriorates into WW3, however. Bummer