CSA and todays problems

[sumwhereinCA]

How would the CSA deal with the problems of today (ie global warming, illegal immigration, and aboortion). Assume that the CSA has made peace with the USA and has its closest allies are the USA, Canada, and Britian. Also assume that the CSA controls New Mexico and Arizona as well as Cuba. Lastly, the USA and the CSA did not join the Great War (no conflict after the Civil War to cause a sense of animosity).

[Ran Exilis]

Well, the first major question here is: exactly how much of today's world and society
would be butterflied away or otherwise affected by the survival of the CSA?

I mean, the survival of the CSA only needs to affect the world wars in a certain way,
and the world could end up being very different from OTL...

[KingIII]

Well it sounds like The CSA is just like the USA so... they'd pry handle these things like the US.

[demonkangaroo]

the us won't have illegal immigration. unless the conservatives in canada went to live in minnisota.

[HueyLong]

Global Warming- The CSA is excluded from the Frankfurt Accords (Kyoto Protocol) as an industrially developing nation. However, the CSA complains extensively about the air and water pollution of the USA although, when relatively examined, the CSA is putting out more pollution for less positive output.

Immigration- Braceros, left over from the industrial boom of WW2, are becoming a drain upon the King System, established by Huey Phineas Long, and as such, their expulsion is called for by some (pensioners that came as temporary workers and stayed)

Wetbacks, poor Mexican youths who have crossed the border looking for jobs and an escape from the Confederadid-supported government, are herded up into chain gangs if caught, and are used on a number of government projects in the Southwest states (notably the Boulder Dam, protested by environmental groups in the US). There are regular dragnet attempts to remove the wetbacks from the cities, to much praise from agricultural patrons, freed blacks and white workers. These immigrants are mainly rural or imprisoned.

Abortion- Abortion is a non-issue except as an extralegal scandal (Abortion, that backstreet vice). Teen pregnancies, miscarriages and infant deaths are far higher than in the United States.

However, in a number of state's eugenics programs, "forced miscarriages" and sterilization are used in an attempt to control unfit populations.

[David S Poepoe]

Originally Posted by HueyLong

Abortion- Abortion is a non-issue except as an extralegal scandal (Abortion, that backstreet vice). Teen pregnancies, miscarriages and infant deaths are far higher than in the United States.

However, in a number of state's eugenics programs, "forced miscarriages" and sterilization are used in an attempt to control unfit populations.

Abortion laws vary from state to state since this is an issue that the Federal Government in OTL shouldn't be dealing with. It would be questionable if a Confederate Supreme Court is ever actually permitted to be formed. In one sense, it isn't necessary and does contradict the notion of a confederation of states.

Eugenics are more of 'in thing' for the time period and most likely will fall out of favor in a few years. There's no particular reason to believe that teen pregnancies, miscarriages and infant deaths were be higher than in the United States.

[HueyLong]

Never did I say that there was a supreme court decision about abortion..... it just isn't challenged much on any level.

Oh, and the South in OTL has the problems of higher infancy deaths and higher teen pregnancy. When it goes the way of independent banana republic, it will be worse.

Oh, and any independent south will latch on to racial hygiene for a long time to come. In OTL, some southern states still had eugenics programs into the late 70s.

Also, with slavery still in full swing for a bit longer as well as the likely restrictions on black immigration to the US, there will be a much larger black population in a number of states. More of a Siege mentality develops without the Great Migration.

[sumwhereinCA]

Originally Posted by Ran Exilis

Well, the first major question here is: exactly how much of today's world and society
would be butterflied away or otherwise affected by the survival of the CSA?

I mean, the survival of the CSA only needs to affect the world wars in a certain way,
and the world could end up being very different from OTL...

ya i havent decided how much would be butterflyed away. i mean without USA entry into world war 1 it is quite possible that the German Empire and the Central Powers were victorious. however if Britain appeased the USA and the CSA then both nations might join the entente. butterflies are messy. o ya the USA still shares a mexican border cause California still touches Baja California

[David S Poepoe]

Originally Posted by HueyLong

Never did I say that there was a supreme court decision about abortion..... it just isn't challenged much on any level.

Oh, and the South in OTL has the problems of higher infancy deaths and higher teen pregnancy. When it goes the way of independent banana republic, it will be worse.

Oh, and any independent south will latch on to racial hygiene for a long time to come. In OTL, some southern states still had eugenics programs into the late 70s.

Also, with slavery still in full swing for a bit longer as well as the likely restrictions on black immigration to the US, there will be a much larger black population in a number of states. More of a Siege mentality develops without the Great Migration.

Oh, I brought up the Supreme Court only as an aside.

Oh, slavery may have been abolished by earlier.

[ninebucks]

Originally Posted by HueyLong

Never did I say that there was a supreme court decision about abortion..... it just isn't challenged much on any level.

Oh, and the South in OTL has the problems of higher infancy deaths and higher teen pregnancy. When it goes the way of independent banana republic, it will be worse.

Oh, and any independent south will latch on to racial hygiene for a long time to come. In OTL, some southern states still had eugenics programs into the late 70s.

Also, with slavery still in full swing for a bit longer as well as the likely restrictions on black immigration to the US, there will be a much larger black population in a number of states. More of a Siege mentality develops without the Great Migration.

And what leads you to believe that the CSA will be so profoundly mismanaged?

After winning their independence, the CSA will be forced to industrialise in order to become self-sufficient. Slave-based agriculture will no longer be supported as the primary economic activity and so, very quickly, slavery will be abolished. However, the abolition will not be the result of and unpopular government in Washington, rather, it would be the decision of the sovereign legislature of the Confederate States. Thus, there will not be the same widespread anti-Black feelings amongst poor Whites, and the South will be much more racially harmonius.

So, to answer the questions:

The idea that the CSA will be excluded from climate change protocol due to being undeveloped is a bit silly, seeing as in OTL Mexico is included. A surviving Confederacy will be in the same basket as every other developed nation.

For immigration, I suspect there will be some xenopohobic elements in Dixie, amongst both Blacks and Whites. However, I suspect that Mexicans would much rather immigrate into US California than CS territories.

Abortion is a difficult one to predict. The social values of the South are inextricably linked to the Reconstruction. Without that experience, and with much better race relations, and with a much more urbanised society, its possible the CSA could be quite a liberal place.

[Max Sinister]

If every state can decide alone whether to allow abortion or not, this might lead to a developemtn like this:

1. One more liberal state (Louisiana?) makes abortion significantly easier, if not completely legal.
2. Many women from upper and middle class families who become pregnant at the wrong time go to Louisiana for abortions (similar as German women would go to the Netherlands for the same reason).
3. Anti-abortionists become angry and demand that abortions are forbidden on state level.
4. This leads to a discussion whether it's OK if the state gets more power, even if the majority of the people is against abortion.

[David S Poepoe]

Originally Posted by Max Sinister

If every state can decide alone whether to allow abortion or not, this might lead to a developemtn like this:

1. One more liberal state (Louisiana?) makes abortion significantly easier, if not completely legal.
2. Many women from upper and middle class families who become pregnant at the wrong time go to Louisiana for abortions (similar as German women would go to the Netherlands for the same reason).
3. Anti-abortionists become angry and demand that abortions are forbidden on state level.
4. This leads to a discussion whether it's OK if the state gets more power, even if the majority of the people is against abortion.

Good development, however there is a clear 'background' indication that the entire scenario is framed from a mindset completely different from that of a 'states rights' (can't think up another term right now) culture. One could believe that since there would be no way that special interests groups can lobby the Confederate Congress to influence state legislation that such interference won't develop to begin with. The Antiabortionists can only lobby the Louisiana state government for changes in legislation.

There could be thirteen different versions and degrees of abortion offered thru out the states of the Confederacy [number just drawn randomly]. For the antiabortionists to outlaw abortion they will have to lead the fight in thirteen different state legislations and possibly thirteen different state courts.

[NomadicSky]

If Mexico is a puppet state then the CSA should have an outlet to the pacific ocean.
A map something like this perhaps.

[HueyLong]

Originally Posted by ninebucks

And what leads you to believe that the CSA will be so profoundly mismanaged?

After winning their independence, the CSA will be forced to industrialise in order to become self-sufficient. Slave-based agriculture will no longer be supported as the primary economic activity and so, very quickly, slavery will be abolished. However, the abolition will not be the result of and unpopular government in Washington, rather, it would be the decision of the sovereign legislature of the Confederate States. Thus, there will not be the same widespread anti-Black feelings amongst poor Whites, and the South will be much more racially harmonius.

So, to answer the questions:

The idea that the CSA will be excluded from climate change protocol due to being undeveloped is a bit silly, seeing as in OTL Mexico is included. A surviving Confederacy will be in the same basket as every other developed nation.

For immigration, I suspect there will be some xenopohobic elements in Dixie, amongst both Blacks and Whites. However, I suspect that Mexicans would much rather immigrate into US California than CS territories.

Abortion is a difficult one to predict. The social values of the South are inextricably linked to the Reconstruction. Without that experience, and with much better race relations, and with a much more urbanised society, its possible the CSA could be quite a liberal place.

Because there are so many examples scattered through Latin America and Africa of a nation not stupidly following cash-crops and a cheap labor supply.... wait, no there aren't. Nations don't act with reason, they act with the immediate self-interest of those involved. In this case, the planters and eventually, the share-croppers and small farmers. They want the slave system and agriculture, they don't want abolition or industrialization.

They also did not support a protective tariff or funding for internal improvements, which are needed for industrialization.

Southern conservative morals find their roots further back than Reconstruction (The common apologist argument is that if not for damnyankee, nigger-republican Reconstruction, the south would be enlightened and the pinnacle of achievement in the nation. Its extremely untrue) They find themselves in the popular churches of the pre-war era. While many states were closed to popular participation, the South still had its evangelism. As that participation is opened up, the South will become more moralistic and conservative. As things get worse and a banana republic begins to form, people will flock to their churches and to moral causes of their failing. This will include birth control and abortion as time progresses.

[NomadicSky]

Yeah I agree I think the south would be even more moralistic and conservative it might even have the state religion be protestant christianity.

[HueyLong]

Note that there was a federal power structure in the CSA and there would be a federal power structure- states' rights took a backseat to slavery (fugitive slave laws were in effect in the CSA, and crossed state borders)

Originally Posted by The Confederate Constitution, Article VI

(1) The citizens of each State shall be entitled to all the privileges and immunities of citizens in the several States; and shall have the right of transit and sojourn in any State of this Confederacy, with their slaves and other property; and the right of property in said slaves shall not be thereby impaired.

This Article affirms the federal government as having a place between the states, to ensure that slaves are not banned anywhere in the Confederacy.

It wouldn't be hard to expand all of this even further, with the eventual populist wave bringing morals into the Federal sphere of power. (Abortion is after all murder and is thereby as important a matter as abolition in terms of depravity.)

[ninebucks]

Originally Posted by HueyLong

Because there are so many examples scattered through Latin America and Africa of a nation not stupidly following cash-crops and a cheap labor supply.... wait, no there aren't. Nations don't act with reason, they act with the immediate self-interest of those involved. In this case, the planters and eventually, the share-croppers and small farmers. They want the slave system and agriculture, they don't want abolition or industrialization.

They also did not support a protective tariff or funding for internal improvements, which are needed for industrialization.

Southern conservative morals find their roots further back than Reconstruction (The common apologist argument is that if not for damnyankee, nigger-republican Reconstruction, the south would be enlightened and the pinnacle of achievement in the nation. Its extremely untrue) They find themselves in the popular churches of the pre-war era. While many states were closed to popular participation, the South still had its evangelism. As that participation is opened up, the South will become more moralistic and conservative. As things get worse and a banana republic begins to form, people will flock to their churches and to moral causes of their failing. This will include birth control and abortion as time progresses.

I agree with you that nations follow their immediate self-interest, but bear in mind that straight after the war the South is going to be thoroughly dependent on the North for industrial imports. Even the most stubborn slave-owner is going to recognise the need for self-sustainability.

The next generation will come into power and see a situation whereby Dixie is purely at the mercy of Washington's trade regime, and will see that the work of their fathers' looks to be undone unless the CSA becomes autonomous.

If the CSA were to remain independent, it would have to industrialise. Whereas, in OTL, the South was deliberately kept from industrialising. The nature of the US legislature to support vested interests, and so, the vested interests of the industrialised Northern states are going to enforce laws to maintain their status and crush any potential competition from the South.

[Faeelin]

Originally Posted by ninebucks

After winning their independence, the CSA will be forced to industrialise in order to become self-sufficient. Slave-based agriculture will no longer be supported as the primary economic activity and so, very quickly, slavery will be abolished.

Okay, some questions. Why does the CSA want to become self-sufficient, and why do the planters want to give up slave-based agriculture?

Investment in industry, I can see.

The idea that racism towards blacks because of the damnyankees, as opposed to a part of southern culture, also seems a bit dubious.

One obvious nightmare that will hold the south back: It's educational system in this era, or lack thereof.

[Faeelin]

Originally Posted by HueyLong

They also did not support a protective tariff or funding for internal improvements, which are needed for industrialization.

Hmm, where's Jared when we need him.

[Faeelin]

Originally Posted by ninebucks

I agree with you that nations follow their immediate self-interest, but bear in mind that straight after the war the South is going to be thoroughly dependent on the North for industrial imports.

What about Britain?

Man, the supreme court battles in the Confederacy will be fun. (Look, clearly this 99% tariff on Fordsmobiles is a revenue tariff, not a protectoinist one).

If the CSA were to remain independent, it would have to industrialise. Whereas, in OTL, the South was deliberately kept from industrialising. The nature of the US legislature to support vested interests, and so, the vested interests of the industrialised Northern states are going to enforce laws to maintain their status and crush any potential competition from the South.

Why didn't the vested interests keep the midwest and Pacific from industrializing?