Different aftermaths

[tom]

Estimate the casualties and recovery times of atomic wars occurring at the following dates:
1952
1957
1962
1967
1972
1977
1982
Would wars after 1982 be any worse? Wouldn't 99% of the nukes just make the rubble bounce?

[basileus]

Originally Posted by tom

Estimate the casualties and recovery times of atomic wars occurring at the following dates:
1952
1957
1962
1967
1972
1977
1982
Would wars after 1982 be any worse? Wouldn't 99% of the nukes just make the rubble bounce?

1952 US victory at high price, let's say 25 megadeaths in USA and say 100 in USSR (mainly from starvation/radiation). The Red Army conquers West Europe, but is later reduced with conventional war or surrenders. Say 20 yeras to recover in the USA, 100 aren't enough fro USSR
1957 Some more damage to US cities (Russians hade their first missiles) and major nuke involvement of Europe. Total about 250 megadeaths, still US victory, but at least 30 yeras to recover for the US and a least 50 for Western Europe. Russia has gone for centuries.
1962 Smells like Armageddon. It could make some 300+ megadeaths, and start a brief nuclear winter. End of the western world as we know it, still US victory but a shattered nation.
1967 Even worst. First date in which a real "draw" is possible in a MAD scenario. Can't say the body count, overflows my capability.
1972 Same as above, maybe higher probabilty of survival for both US and USSR government officials and some hidden military structure, but what more?
The US had Arpanet.
1977 MAD+Nuclear Winter. Serious risk of total extermination of the human race.
1982 Same as above.

[tom]

Of course, the most likely 1962 brief nuclear winter would be Nov 1962 to, say, maybe May of 1963. That would give us a fighting chance of having a distantly normal crop year, although it would be close. This, of course, is my CMW we have discussed so much on this forum, and is about what Mithras went through in 1802 (although the timing of the nuclear winter was pessimal there, not optimal).

[Glen]

I think the death estimates are a bit high (for the US at least, the USSR would get creamed in most of these years).

However, I think this is a very interesting question and would like to hear more opinion on it.