1941 - Soviets Invade Turkey?

[TobyDammit]

Before the Germans invaded the Soviet Union in '41, the two were in talks to extend the secret protocols of the Non-Aggression Pact; Germany stalled by offering Stalin a free hand in Persia and India, ignoring what he really wanted - Romania, and above all, Turkey. Hitler was, of course, not interested in giving up any more territory, but what if he (in a rare moment of foresight) decided that bogging the Red Army down in the mountains of Anatolia wasn't a bad idea?

What would have happened? Would Stalin's Turkish campaign have been as big a blunder as the Winter War? Would Britain have declared war, despite being stretched thin already? Would Stalin have even risked war with Britain to begin with? And how would this all affect Barbarossa and the rest of the war?

[Keenir]

Originally Posted by TobyDammit

offering Stalin a free hand in Persia and India, ignoring what he really wanted - Romania, and above all, Turkey.

when did Stalin start wanting Turkey? he'd just given Ataturk all that gold to finance Turkey with.

What would have happened? Would Stalin's Turkish campaign have been as big a blunder as the Winter War?

a bigger blunder, whether in winter or summer.

Would Britain have declared war, despite being stretched thin already? Would Stalin have even risked war with Britain to begin with?

I never knew Ismet Inonu was the Prime Minister of Great Britain.

[Markus]

Unlikely. The Winter War and the Fall of France led to a major reorganisation of the Red Army, not to mention the already ongoing modernisation. I think he´ll wait until 42 with the Turkey shot.

[Keenir]

Originally Posted by Markus

Unlikely. The Winter War and the Fall of France led to a major reorganisation of the Red Army, not to mention the already ongoing modernisation. I think he´ll wait until 42 with the Turkey shot.

...and with the same result.

[Nicole]

How will this invasion work? Would it be overland through the North Caucasus, or over the Black Sea against Istanbul? Either way, the terrain likely doesn't favor the Soviets, though I'm not as knowledgeable about the Black Sea side of Istanbul..

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

Originally Posted by Imajin

How will this invasion work? Would it be overland through the North Caucasus, or over the Black Sea against Istanbul? Either way, the terrain likely doesn't favor the Soviets, though I'm not as knowledgeable about the Black Sea side of Istanbul..

I don't think the Soviets had the amphibious capability to attempt a landing like that.

An invasion would have to go through Anatolia. They would win, but it would be long and costly. I don't see it happening. Stalin tried to bully the Turks into handing over territory, but Inonu called his bluff and there it remained.

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

Originally Posted by Keenir

when did Stalin start wanting Turkey? he'd just given Ataturk all that gold to finance Turkey with.

That was a few years previously, though, and the situation had changed with Germany becoming a massive thread to Russia. I don't think he wanted all of Turkey, but he wanted a chunk of the East. Kars is a bit of a danger to Russia as it's a good launching point for an invasion of the Caucasus from the Turkish side. Moving the border to where it was in 1914 gives the Soviets a better defensive line, and that's what Stalin was after.

[TobyDammit]

Originally Posted by Keenir

when did Stalin start wanting Turkey? he'd just given Ataturk all that gold to finance Turkey with.

He and his emissaries were insisting upon it when they tried to extend the secret protocols of the MRP.

[stevep]

Originally Posted by Keenir

...and with the same result.

I very much doubt it. If Stalin decides to wait until summer 42 the attack never comes. By that time he will have a minor distraction as Adolph won't wait.

Steve

[Mark AH]

Originally Posted by stevep

I very much doubt it. If Stalin decides to wait until summer 42 the attack never comes. By that time he will have a minor distraction as Adolph won't wait.

Steve

A major problem for Stalin in 1941 was that his army wasn’t fully recovered from his cleaning operations a few years earlier. So as you mentioned he wasn’t ready for such attack before 1942 or even 1943. But if Hitler didn’t violated the alliance with the USSR it would have been possible, although Turkey was likely Hitler’s way to the oilfields (because he didn’t went through the USSR). So it could have been a race to the Middle East.

[Markus]

Originally Posted by Keenir

...and with the same result.

In that case do tell us how many and what sort of tanks and planes Turkey had. If a Red Army in a bad shape can stop and destroy a top-of-the-line force like the Wehrmacht what will a Red Army in a decent shape do to a second class military?

[Keenir]

Originally Posted by stevep

I very much doubt it. If Stalin decides to wait until summer 42 the attack never comes. By that time he will have a minor distraction as Adolph won't wait.

Steve

I stand corrected (thank you)....it'll be even worse for Stalin.

[Keenir]

Originally Posted by Markus

In that case do tell us how many and what sort of tanks and planes Turkey had.

don't forget geography. the mountains of Turkey killed at least as many Russians during WW1 as the Ottoman troops did.

If a Red Army in a bad shape can stop and destroy a top-of-the-line force like the Wehrmacht what will a Red Army in a decent shape do to a second class military?

"second class"?

before I answer, please tell me how Turkey's military was second class.

[Markus]

Originally Posted by Keenir

"second class"?

before I answer, please tell me how Turkey's military was second class.

Prove me wrong by telling me how many and what tanks and warplanes the Turkish army had. They better have some VERY good stuff to deal with 3,000+ T-34 and 1,200+ KV-1.

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

Originally Posted by Markus

In that case do tell us how many and what sort of tanks and planes Turkey had. If a Red Army in a bad shape can stop and destroy a top-of-the-line force like the Wehrmacht what will a Red Army in a decent shape do to a second class military?

It's not the same. All those weapons you're talking about need considerable infrastructure to supply and maintain them, and that's just not possible in an attack on Turkey. Also, tanks will be of considerably less utility in Turkey than on the Eastern Front, and warfare will be slower and less mobile in mountainous terrain.

Turkey didn't have the kind of military it has today, but it wasn't nothing, either... and you can bet they would get a lot of material assistance if attacked.

[TobyDammit]

Originally Posted by Abdul Hadi Pasha

That was a few years previously, though, and the situation had changed with Germany becoming a massive thread to Russia. I don't think he wanted all of Turkey, but he wanted a chunk of the East. Kars is a bit of a danger to Russia as it's a good launching point for an invasion of the Caucasus from the Turkish side. Moving the border to where it was in 1914 gives the Soviets a better defensive line, and that's what Stalin was after.

I dunno. Even if that's all he wanted a few years earlier, in this scenario he's been given what no Tsar ever had - a green light to the Bosporus. Do you really think an egomaniac like Stalin would turn that down?

[Prinz Richard Eugen]

An attack on Turkey would have to come through the same mountianous territory in which the Ottomans fought the Imperial Russian army in WWI. The Russians don't have the ability to invade across the Black Sea. The Russian tanks would be helpful, but would have to be used in small numbers. I doubt any attack could begin before 05/41 in this terrain. That means there is a lot of Soviet men and material a long way from the Russo-German border. This will aid the German attack and may be enough to allow capture of Moscow. And now there is another partner for Germany in the war. As Hitler wants the oilfields, he will send troops through Turkey to try to seize them in 1941.

[DominusCounterfacticity]

Originally Posted by TobyDammit

Before the Germans invaded the Soviet Union in '41, the two were in talks to extend the secret protocols of the Non-Aggression Pact; Germany stalled by offering Stalin a free hand in Persia and India, ignoring what he really wanted - Romania, and above all, Turkey. Hitler was, of course, not interested in giving up any more territory, but what if he (in a rare moment of foresight) decided that bogging the Red Army down in the mountains of Anatolia wasn't a bad idea?

What would have happened? Would Stalin's Turkish campaign have been as big a blunder as the Winter War? Would Britain have declared war, despite being stretched thin already? Would Stalin have even risked war with Britain to begin with? And how would this all affect Barbarossa and the rest of the war?

Bigger, because it would have pushed the geopolitically-key Turkey into the Axis camp, providing Hitler with another route to the Caspian. Even if they were able to invade Turkey while holding off the Soviets, and even if they were able to obliterate the Turkish military, it would open up a Nazi-Soviet front on Axis-friendly territory.

[TobyDammit]

Originally Posted by Prinz Richard Eugen

An attack on Turkey would have to come through the same mountianous territory in which the Ottomans fought the Imperial Russian army in WWI. The Russians don't have the ability to invade across the Black Sea. The Russian tanks would be helpful, but would have to be used in small numbers. I doubt any attack could begin before 05/41 in this terrain. That means there is a lot of Soviet men and material a long way from the Russo-German border. This will aid the German attack and may be enough to allow capture of Moscow. And now there is another partner for Germany in the war. As Hitler wants the oilfields, he will send troops through Turkey to try to seize them in 1941.

Of course, in that scenario, I can't imagine the British will just stand by and let it happen. Maybe they invade from Iraq to draw German and Turkish troops away from the main thrust towards Baku?

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

Originally Posted by TobyDammit

Of course, in that scenario, I can't imagine the British will just stand by and let it happen. Maybe they invade from Iraq to draw German and Turkish troops away from the main thrust towards Baku?

What could the British really do? If the Nazis and Soviets came to an agreement to let the Soviets invade Turkey, the British if they wanted to intervene would have to be at war with both Germany and the USSR.

This scenario is really, incredibly unlikely. Giving the Russians the Straits would make them much harder to defeat. Stalin would also have to be foolish to do this.