WI: Japan at the Berlin Conference: Japanese Madagascar?

Hendryk

Banned
This morning, in the train to Paris, I chatted up a Japanese girl who, it turns out, spent two years in Madagascar as a field nurse. Now Madagascar isn't a place where one would normally expect to find a Japanese, and it made me wonder: WI Japan had sent delegates at the Berlin Conference? How could it have ended up with Madagascar, and what would have been the long-term consequences?

800px-LocationMadagascar_svg.png
 
This was before their victory over Russia. I expect that at this time noone would've considered to invite them. Even the US (or Russia) didn't get colonies, although they were invited.
 
This was before their victory over Russia. I expect that at this time noone would've considered to invite them. Even the US (or Russia) didn't get colonies, although they were invited.

I suppose we'd need a POD to make them invite Japan. Maybe they get opened up to trade a decade or two earlier, and then they rapidly progress from there.
 

Hendryk

Banned
I suppose we'd need a POD to make them invite Japan.
Well, the Ottoman empire was invited too, and it's not like the Western powers took it seriously either at that point. I think it's plausible that Japan may have been invited by Germany as a way to throw a spammer in Britain's and France's Asian schemes and possibly bring the promising Far Eastern power closer to Germany.
 
I don't know that it would do much. What resources does Madagascar hold that would make it valuable to the Japanese? Would they colonize it or try to use it as a springboard for turf in East Africa (perhaps at German expense)?
 
Considering France already had a protectorate over Madagascar at the time of the Berlin Conference, I find the idea very unlikely.
 

Hendryk

Banned
Considering France already had a protectorate over Madagascar at the time of the Berlin Conference, I find the idea very unlikely.
Well, protectorates come and go. In 1881, France had lost condominium over Egypt, so there was a precedent of sorts.
 

Keenir

Banned
I don't know that it would do much. What resources does Madagascar hold that would make it valuable to the Japanese?

wood, bamboo, medicines, various endemic and unique plants which would make cool bonsai, and lots of metal and mineral wealth.

and sisal! (the French got rich off that stuff in OTL; no reason the Japanese wouldn't as well)
 
Actually the Northern half of Madagascar was owned by France by 1885, as Madagascar had lost a recent war to the French.

Also, I doubt Japan would be in the position to annex Madagascar as it was still relatively weak vis a vis the European powers.

There'd have to be a lot of changes to make it so Japan was in a position to annex Madagascar, and Madagascar was in a position to be annexed.
 

sprite

Donor
Japan was just really a new player on the world stage.

Which is something that we can see now but western nations didn't really see till the early 1900s

The Uk could be an earlier supporter of Japan, seeing the country as a kind of a Pacific Great Britain,very useful as an ally/counterweight against Russia, China and France.
 
Well, protectorates come and go. In 1881, France had lost condominium over Egypt, so there was a precedent of sorts.

However, the Japanese don't have the military means to oust the French out of Indo-China at the time either, the Japanese will go away empty handed. Also it would be on the very high end of impractical for Japan to looking outside the Far East at the time. For the African theater the British would not support the addition of the Japanese to the local.
 

Grey Wolf

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Logistically, even if all the political reasons against were overcome, how is Japan to get a force to Madagascar ? I don't even know if its annexed Okinawa yet, if so only just I think. Beyond that, does it have any ships of its own capable of the journey ? I suppose a couple of warships may be in a state to make it, but what's the state of the mercantile marine ? So, they would probably have to hire ships off someone else to act as transports or to try to take control of what is beneath the French protectorate a more-or-less unified native kingdom . . . take control with marines from a couple of warships ? Japan, if it can get there, is going to end up being the poodle or agent of someone else ...

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 

Hendryk

Banned
Japan, if it can get there, is going to end up being the poodle or agent of someone else ...
Namely, Germany. This would lead to an earlier rapprochement of the two countries than in OTL, and may have Japan join the Alliance rather than the Entente in 1914.
 
But how much of a chance would Japan have, fighting all alone against Britain, France and Russia in East Asia? One of them, ok (and I'm not even sure whether they could defeat Britain and the Commonwealth). But all of them? If the RN could transport Russian troops to Japanese soil, goodbye.
 
Well, the Ottoman empire was invited too, and it's not like the Western powers took it seriously either at that point. I think it's plausible that Japan may have been invited by Germany as a way to throw a spammer in Britain's and France's Asian schemes and possibly bring the promising Far Eastern power closer to Germany.

The Ottoman Empire wasn't invited. They had to force their way onto the list, for which they managed to successfully argue that they had territory in Africa, unlike many other invitees.

Japan had no territory, and no economic interests. There is no way anyone woud have even considered them.
 
But how much of a chance would Japan have, fighting all alone against Britain, France and Russia in East Asia? One of them, ok (and I'm not even sure whether they could defeat Britain and the Commonwealth). But all of them? If the RN could transport Russian troops to Japanese soil, goodbye.

I don't agree with that. This is 1884-85. Even if the RN transports them (for which you would need parliamentary approval and diversion of lots of RN resources at a time of high-tension), then what? Unacclimatized Japanese soldiers with no supply train? It took France a long, long time to dominate the island with far greater resources and power at her disposal.

And you're right about beating Britain, but understating it considerably. Britain would crush Japan in this timeframe. Britain could still have deafeated Japan one-on-one in WWII, for that matter.
 

Hendryk

Banned
The Ottoman Empire wasn't invited. They had to force their way onto the list, for which they managed to successfully argue that they had territory in Africa, unlike many other invitees.
Ah, I wasn't aware of that. Thanks for the correction.

Japan had no territory, and no economic interests.
Well, the economic interest criterion was very much in the eyes of the beholder. To this day there is a debate about whether the second wave of imperialist expansion in the late 19th century was a net gain or a net loss in strict economic terms. I think that for many if not most countries it was more of a "Let's color as much of the map as others will let us get away with" thing. Certainly having Angola and Mozambique hardly helped Portugal devolve into a third-rate country after its brief golden age in the 1400s.

But yeah, it seems that this WI stretches plausibility rather too far. It was just an idea I had, I didn't think it through.
 
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