The Cuban Missile War Timeline

[Archangel]

Originally Posted by Khazar

Emmm...just wanted to say, great timeline ! I read the original some time ago and started seeing some posts saying that it was being actualized and better-ed, and after searching for 40 minutes I found the latest version in the last page. I'm reading 1.7 right now, and can't wait to read the after-world part.

Cheers

ps: first post

Welcome to AH.com, Khazar!

[Archangel]

Originally Posted by Michel Van

its take so 20 to years until Military technology get in to civilian
and in CMWTL the world have also a delay in technological evolution
i think that in 1972 they are back on Technical level of 1962.
so wat for Military technology get in Cililian use will take 30 years !
Almost like GPS system with 36 years from first Test until the operational system.

Computer Technolgy
will there be there Integrated circuit (IC) in this TL?
or will be there Roomsize transistor-based machines with punched card and Magnetic core memory ?
if Military use IC, its gona be Roomsize Computers and "bulky" Consumer electronics for next 30 years

Cultural influence on the technological evolution aka "Star Trek Effect"
TV serie Star Trek influence allot Engineers and Technicians
will be a Star Trek serie in CMWTL ?

By the way
THX for Excel file Archangel
also happy new New year to you all

TTL StarTrek might be very pacifist in nature, given the effects of CMW.

[alphaboi867]

Originally Posted by Archangel

It's also necessary to cover the exploration of space and deep seas and the technological evolution in civilian subjects, to give an idea of how everyday life was affected by the CMW and the delay it brings in many developments.

What about the social effects (in the US in particular)? I think the Sexual Revolution might do a 180 turn and not start up again for a generation. By the late 60s another baby boom could be starting. Or would it be like the '20s with a general attitude of "Hey, alot of people died, but we're still alive so let's have fun"? What happens if the Sexual Revolution coincided with the discovery of HIV?

Also when do the Olympics get restarted? '64 is clearly going to get cancelled, but I can see new games being held by '68 or '72 at the latest. And speaking of the UK; what happened to the Queen and her family? Would she be in a government bunker or just retreat to one of her country estates? Wasn't Prince Charles at school in Australia during the Cuban Missle Crisis?

[Michel Van]

i saw on German History Channel : "Cities of the Underworld, Moscow"
found this

the Sovjet Bunker GO-42 aka Tagansky Protected Command Point
build on order by Stalin, was complet in 1956
60 meter under ground near Moscow Taganskaya metro station
were three major Metrolines cross

GO-42 is a communications headquarters for leadership and military top marshall
in Cold War workt 3000 people over 7000 m² and had 90 days Autonomous operation.
the wall are cover with steel-lead plates


during Cuba crisis the Military Command was day and night in this bunker.

link
http://zkp42.ru/index.php?lang=english
http://www.fotopedia.com/albums/54UB...es/x4jIiWaWkiM

[Khazar]

Yeah, that episode was also named "Stalin's secret lair". I found it on google videos, but it seems I can't see it from here. Maybe you north-landers can

Options to see the episode on google videos
The episode in Spanish

The episode talks a lot about the cuban missile crisis, which is very convenient

[Michel Van]

i look for my Scenario of Nuclear war 1961, how transport Refugees over sea
something we can use also for CMWTL

HMS Queen Mary made record with 16082 Soldiers over atlantic in 5 days during WWII.
in 1961 and 1962 there still big ocean liner & transatlantic liner

so i made some calculation

Transport
Marseille -> Algier 756 km with SS France transatlantic liner
16000 Refugees (8 per cabin) per 24 hours roundtrip
in month the SS France brings 320000 Refugees to Algiers
note Algier had in 1961 a Population of 900000 after 3 months Refugees take over the City !

I assume the SS France and SS Libertè do this together a year (include Maintenance)
we have 4-5 Milions Refugees in Algiers !

Lissabon Portugal -> Fortaleza Brasil 5560 km with HMS Queen Mary & HMS Queen Elizabeth
transport over a year 1 milion Refugees

Lissabon Portugal -> Angola with Stop at Portuguese Guinea for resupply and refuel
a voyage of 7800 km over a week
after one year also 1 million Refugees but distributed over Portuguese Guinea and Angola

England -> South africa 13000 km
England -> Australia 21000 km
i think that unrealistic that Refugees ship operate over this distance
because the ships have to stop several time for resupply and refuel.

so we can assume that most Refugees go oversea will be in range of 6000 km from Europe.

[Khazar]

Maybe the more desperate Spanish and Portuguese (and maybe French too?) would cross the Gibraltar Strait en-masse to Africa. This would be more intense in the first days after the war and it would estabilize(sic?) in the mid-term with more organized one-way trips to the south.

[Archangel]

Originally Posted by Khazar

Maybe the more desperate Spanish and Portuguese (and maybe French too?) would cross the Gibraltar Strait en-masse to Africa. This would be more intense in the first days after the war and it would estabilize(sic?) in the mid-term with more organized one-way trips to the south.

I'm afraid Morocco wouldn't a large number of European refugees, so soon after gaining independence.

[Amerigo Vespucci]

Originally Posted by Archangel

I'm afraid Morocco wouldn't want a large number of European refugees, so soon after gaining independence.

A la Switzerland ITTL, albeit for a different reason.

[Amerigo Vespucci]

If anyone's interested, I'd like to get folks' thoughts on the likely outcomes for Bob Dylan in the post-Cuban War world. A lot of his songs are going to have particular resonance given the postwar conditions in the U.S., and the kind of antiestablishment message a lot of them have would be perfect for some of the more liberal aspects of the Normal movement.

Any thoughts?

[Khazar]

Sorry, I know nothing about Bob Dylan.

:BUMP!!11!eleven!:

[Archangel]

Originally Posted by Amerigo Vespucci

If anyone's interested, I'd like to get folks' thoughts on the likely outcomes for Bob Dylan in the post-Cuban War world. A lot of his songs are going to have particular resonance given the postwar conditions in the U.S., and the kind of antiestablishment message a lot of them have would be perfect for some of the more liberal aspects of the Normal movement.

Any thoughts?

Maybe one of his songs (for example, The Times They are a-Changin', gets adopted by the Normal Movement or at least one of its factions.

[Archangel]

I reviewed some of the assessments I made for Portugal and corrected some typos:
In post
http://alternatehistory.com/discussi...&postcount=917, instead of what I wrote, it should be:

Some additional footnotes about my prevision of Portugal’s Politics in the CMWTL:
The local Communist Party would experience a second weakening in the late 90’s as economic improvement reaches a certain level (the first weakening would have been the CMW effect on those living or having family in Lisbon). While during the 70’s and 80’s (first clandestinely and later in the open), the communists would recover some strength in the Lisbon Metro Area (due to internal migrations from Alentejo[3] to rebuilt Lisbon), they would stay a regional party (Alentejo, a handful of MPs in Lisbon and 1-2 MP for Oporto). Minor presence at a federal level (depends on how things are for them with local populations in the colonies, where all the other parties will be competing for every non-committed communists).

An ironic result in the far-left would be that, since the CMW would destroy or scatter most of the future social bases of Trotskyism [4] (OTL’s future PSR, now part of the Left Block) and pro-Chinese Maoism [4] (OTL’s future PCTP-MRPP), there would be a small Maoist party, with a partial OTL Maoist leadership (António Garcia Pereira), but based in the OTL Pro-Albanese Maoist UDP[5]which would send 1-2 MPs in a non regular basis to the Portuguese Parliament by the 90’s. A Trotskyite party would probably arise but much weaker than OTL. No presence for any of them at a federal level.

Potential ATL Social Democratic leaders for:
-Angola: João Cravinho (Sr.)[6];
-Mozambique: António Almeida Santos[7] (a Portuguese lawyer who practiced there for a very long – OTL former president of Parliament) and António Costa, a baby by the time of CMW, who will go with his father to Mozambique, from where his father was. He is a potential successor for Almeida Santos, and might see the party reach a better place as time goes by and everybody is able to vote.;

Potential Prime-Ministers (or Chief Ministers) for Mozambique:
Jorge Jardim[8] (ATL Christian Democratic Party) and Aníbal Cavaco Silva[9] (ATL Liberal Democratic Party).

Potential Liberal-Democratic politician for Angola (for the end of the XX century): António Monteiro (Portuguese Embassador in France, born in Angola).
A potential Liberal-Democratic or Christian Democratic politician for Angola (for the end of the XX century): Fátima Roque (Economist).
___




____________
[3]-Given its poverty and tradition of more internal migration than to overseas, at least in the XX century.
[4]-Urban middle class, which would in part die in Lisbon or migrate.
[5]-More popular roots, thus less affected by CMW, and given the continuing dictatorship and subsequent less leftist nature of the Democratic Portugal (with slower reforms on issues important to their followers), they will still have some followers.
[6]-He was born there, with a technical profile (OTL former minister), maybe able to attract votes in the black population.
[7]-Lived there for a very long time (1953-1974).
[8]-Influential businessman there in the colonial days.
[9]-Served there while in the Military. Although in 1962 he was a Finances student in Lisbon (even though he is from the Algarve), he could still be sent there as a military and stay there, re-entering studies in Mozambique.

[Archangel]

Regarding my post http://alternatehistory.com/discussi...&postcount=589, it should be:

...
There is also an increased likelihood that the dean (and founder) of the University of Lourenço Marques (now University of Eduardo Mondlane) in 1963, later Education Ministry at the time of OTL Carnation Revolution (and later twice socialist minister), Mr José Veiga Simão becames the first transitional prime-minister after a delayed revolution.
He was probed to be that in OTL by Marshall Spínola, because Mr. Simão was the most liberal Minister in the last goverment of the dictatorship. And since Marshall Spínola will be much more influential in this timeline, ....

On the right, there will be at least parties made by:
Moderates from the old regime (and rank and file of the former single party), along with conservative oppositionists and monarchist oppositionists - they will be more powerful than in OTL and will be a conservative/Christian Democratic party, German CDU style. (Marshall António Spínola, Adriano Moreira, etc.).
The "liberal wing" of the old regime will create a centre-right party more or less liberal-conservative/classical liberal with a very strong centrist wing too. (Francisco Sá Carneiro, Francisco Balsemão, João Bosco Mota Amaral, etc...-> lots of prestigous technocrats).

On the left:
The ""ultra-liberal" wing" of the old regime will create a sort of social democratic/Social liberal/Centrist party, including some centre left oppositionists, all having in common not being marxist and not being from the right (General António Ramalho Eanes, José Veiga Simão, António Sousa Franco, António Guterres, etc.. -> lots of prestigous technocrats) .
A (Democratic) Socialist party, smaller than in OTL, with more social democratic leanings than in OTL, with Mário Soares, Jorge Sampaio, etc...

...

[Archangel]

Regarding the post http://alternatehistory.com/discussi...&postcount=659, my analysis (after reading much more) would be this:

...
The parties' influences[5] will be roughly 60% for the right (divided between the two main parties), about 7.5% for the communists, 1-2% maximum for remaining far left, and the rest split for the democratic left (between two main parties) - this of course in Portugal. Valid with fluctuations for the rest of ATL 20th century
....
[5]-figuring names for ATL (European) Portuguese parties is not easy but we could see a:
*Christian Democratic party -Moderates from the old regime (and rank and file of the former single party), along with conservative oppositionists and monarchist oppositionists - they will be more powerful than in OTL and will be a conservative/Christian Democratic Party, mostly German CDU/CSU style, but also with more right-wing factions[6]. (Marshall António Spínola, Adriano Moreira, Francisco Lucas Pires, Henrique Barrilaro Ruas, Jorge Jardim, Alberto João Jardim, Eurico de Melo, António Bagão Félix, etc.). [roughly equivalent to parts of OTL Social Democratic Party, Popular Monarchist Party and Popular Party, along with the OTL (extinct) Christian Democratic Party, MIRN (Movimento Independente para a Reconstrução Nacional/Partido da Direita Portuguesa), Progress Party and Liberal Party]

*Liberal Democratic Party, made up of the "liberal wing" of the old regime to create a centre-right party more or less liberal-conservative/classical liberal with a very strong centrist wing too. (Francisco Sá Carneiro, Francisco Balsemão, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, José Pedro Pinto Leite, João Bosco Mota Amaral, João Salgueiro, Victor Crespo, Joaquim Ferreira do Amaral, Miguel Cadilhe, Leonor Beleza, Miguel Beleza, Luís Valente de Oliveira, António Carmona Rodrigues, Manuela Ferreira Leite, etc...-> lots of prestigous technocrats). [roughly equivalent to (other) parts of OTL Social Democratic Party (mostly), Popular Monarchist Party and Popular Party]

*Social Christian Party -The most liberal members of the old regime will create a sort of social democratic/Social liberal/Centrist party, including some centre left oppositionists, all having in common not being marxists and not being from the right (General António Ramalho Eanes, José Veiga Simão, António Sousa Franco, António Guterres, Jaime Gama, Diogo Freitas do Amaral, Roberto Carneiro, Adelino Amaro da Costa, Gonçalo Ribeiro Telles, Maria de Lurdes Pintassilgo, Emídio Guerreiro, Joaquim Magalhães Mota, Guilherme de Oliveira Martins, Jorge Miranda, Henrique Medina carreira, António Barreto, Vítor Constâncio, José Menéres Pimentel, Álvaro Laborinho Lúcio, Rui Pena, Francisco Sousa Tavares, Daniel Bessa, etc.. -> lots of prestigous technocrats) .[roughly equivalent to (other) parts of OTL Social Democratic Party (its original left-wing), Popular Party (its original left-wing), some isolated members of the Popular Monarchist Party and the right wing of the OTL Socialist Party, along with the (extinct) Independent Social Democratic Action (ASDI)]

*Social Democratic Party - A (Democratic) Socialist party, smaller than in OTL, with more social democratic leanings than in OTL (think the German SPD), with Mário Soares, Jorge Sampaio, Manuel Alegre, Francisco Salgado Zenha, Eduardo Ferro Rodrigues, Augusto Mateus, Alberto Martins, Mário Sottomayor Cardia, etc... [roughly equivalent to the left wing of OTL Socialist Party, along with the most of the now defunct Socialist Left Movement (MES) and União de Esquerda Socialista Democrática (UEDS)]

*Communist Party (like in OTL) - given WW3 and the Lisbon hit which hurts directly or indirectly many of its members, gets reduced to a (dominant) regional party in most of Alentejo(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Alentejo_NUTS_2.gif, minus Alto Alentejo, which is more centre oriented), along with a minor presence at Lisbon and Oporto.

*People's Democratic Union - Maoist remnants of what would be OTL's MRPP and UDP, minor presence at Lisbon, Oporto and Madeira (weaker than the Communist Party).

*Internationalist Communist League - remnants of Trotskyism, (An ATL equivalent of the OTL Internationalist Communist League, one of the the predecessors of the Socialist Revolutionary Party), but including the Revolutionary Socialist Party and the Workers Party of Socialist Unity, minor presence at Lisbon and Oporto (probably even smaller than the Maoists).

[6]-Assuming the hardliners of the dictatorship don’t create a small rump party.
...

[Amerigo Vespucci]

Good to know! Thanks for the update.

[Archangel]

Originally Posted by Amerigo Vespucci

Good to know! Thanks for the update.

You're Welcome, Amerigo!
I just edited the last post to add more information.

[Astronomo2010]

well continue the timeline please, to see where the future will lead. And exploration of space, discovey of FTL , colonizing star Sistems, and contact with allien species.

[Amerigo Vespucci]

Originally Posted by Astronomo2010

well continue the timeline please, to see where the future will lead. And exploration of space, discovey of FTL , colonizing star Sistems, and contact with allien species.

Nah; I'm not interested in that. The idea was to explore an Earth where the Cuban Missile Crisis turned into a war, and taking it up to 2000 does that well enough.

[Archangel]

A map from 1974 about hte USSR which I think is an useful resource for this TL :