TLC1: For Want of a Newsreel

Jasen777 · May 15, 2007

With maps by TheLoneAmigo

October 1948 - Movie theatres back out of their plan to show short campaign films for Harry Truman and Thomas Dewey.

November 2, 1948 - Thomas Dewey narrowly wins the US Presidential Election.

Analysts were surprised by Democrat Harry Truman's showing in the election, he even won the national popular vote 48.9% to 45.8% over Republican Thomas Dewey. However, narrow victories for Dewey in the key states of California, Illinois, and Ohio gave Dewey 267 electoral votes, one more there was needed for a majority. Truman garnered 225 electoral votes, and Dixiecrat Strom Thurmond pulled in 39 electoral votes. [IOTL Truman won the national popular vote over Dewey 49.6% to 45.1%, and the electoral vote 303 to 189 and 39. Truman carried Ohio, Illinois, and California all by less than 1% of the vote.]

The Democratic Party had better success in congressional races, and took over both houses from the Republicans. Democrats gained a 12-seat majority in the Senate and a 73-seat majority in the House of Representatives. [Nearly the same as OTL]

Election Aftermath

Many saw the better than expected Democratic Party results as approval for Truman's foreign policy, especially the (still ongoing) Berlin airlift, and a result of the successfully labeling of the previous Republican Congress as a "do-nothing" congress. Some Democrats were upset that Truman lost the election despite winning the popular vote, and urged Truman to demand recounts in key states. Truman declined to do this though; he felt that a long election struggle would only lead to divisiveness within the country.

Democratic Party Leaders blamed their defeat on the defections of Thurmond's Dixiecrats and Wallace's Progressives. The Dixiecrats won several states that had been part of the Democrats' "Solid South." The Progressives did not win any states, but they had a much wider (although small) national base than the Dixiecrats and may have tipped the balance in some battle ground states. Major debates erupted within the Democratic Party leadership over what strategy to peruse. Some favored trying to win the Dixiecrats back (giving tactic support for Jim Crow laws) and others favored recovering the Progressives (more left-leaning economics). Despite their victory in Congress, the Democrats' New Deal Coalition was in jeopardy.

Republican leaders blamed their poor showing in Congressional elections on losing the P.R. battle with Truman. President-elect Dewey expressed his support for the Berlin Airlift, the Marshall Plan, and the policy of containment towards "International Communism."

Dewey and Korea

Dewey was in much agreement with Truman's foreign policy and continued the Berlin Airlift. Dewey cooperated in the forming of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, which was made in order to deter possible Soviet aggression in Europe. A wing of the Republican Party led by Senator Robert Taft objected by calling it a provocation and called on Dewey to focus on domestic policies. Dewey is quite upset when he is told later in the year that it is likely that the recent communist victories in China likely mean the loss of the whole mainland.

Dewey began to better equip the South Korean forces after a series of border incidents. This provoked an attack by North Korea who sought to overrun the South before they would be strong enough to resist. The attack occurred before their plans called for, and before Stalin had been convinced of the plan. Because of the subsequent disagreements over the war between the Soviet Union and China, the West began to suspect that the communist bloc might not be as monolithic as it appeared.

The initial North Korean push of the war was stopped in the Sobaek Mountains by the South Korean army and elements of the U.S. Eighth Army coming north from Pusan. A U.S. landing at Inchon lead by MacArthur surprised the North Koreans in forced them to retreat. In two months, the counterattack had pushed the North Korean Army all the way to southern bank of the Yalu, after which the Chinese "volunteer" army intervened. U.N. forces were pushed back until making a successful stand around Kaesong, and the front stalemated just north of the city.

President Estes Kefauver

Kefauver, a popular southerner with liberal economic tendencies was seen as the person to unite the Democratic Party. With a united Democratic party, and with the Korean War fatigue, Kefauver defeated Dewey in the 1952 election. In April of 1953, a cease-fire ended the fighting in Korea with the border between North and South Korea falling according along the fighting lines.

Jasen777 · May 15, 2007

Kefauver ordered a stop to the planned CIA operations in Iran (to oust Prime Minister Mohammed Mossadegh). This caused the U.K to end their own plans and Iran managed to evolve into a fairly stable constitutional monarchy (the monarch has very limited powers). They also manage to stay largely out of the Cold War conflict.

In 1954, France withdrew from Indo-China due to its unpopularity at home and lack of funds. Vietnam was later portioned into north and south zones with the promise of a united election in two years. The elections of 1956 in Vietnam were so fraught with allegations of cheating though that no vote total was ever complied. The U.N. recommended that the split of Vietnam remains permanent. During the Kefauver Presidency Cold War tensions lessened, especially after the end of the Korean War and the death of Stalin in 1953.

Domestically, the Supreme Court stuck down segregated education and Kefauver issued a call for a civil rights act. The act was stalled in consecutive congressionally sessions. Kefauver expressed his commitment to civil rights by sending federal troops to Mississippi and Arkansas to enforce desegregation.

The Republicans, who saw no other clear candidate, nominated Dewey for the fourth consecutive time. The Democrats re-nominated Kefauver, after Thurmond once again led a southern walk out of the convention over civil rights.

Dewey's Second Term

With the Democratic Party once again divided, Dewey won the 1956 presidential election. The Republicans also won control of the House but fell just short in the Senate.

Before Dewey's inauguration a foreign crises erupted when the U.K. and France seized the Suez Canal in response to President Nasser's nationalization. This was a joint plan with Israel, which invaded the Sinai Peninsula. Dewey responded by expressing his disappointment over the "distraction for combatting international communism." Also under pressure from the Soviet Union, France and the U.K. withdrew their forces in Januraury of 1957. Israel withdrew to pre-war borders, and a U.N. force was deployed to the Canal Zone to keep the peace. The Soviet Union announced the formation of the Berlin Pact to resist "NATO imperialism".

After some 6 years of effort, a cvili rights act that prohibits discrimination based on race, color, national origin, and religion (but not sex), was passed by congress and signed into law. [My view is that the 50's were ripe for the racial tensions seen in the 60's but that Eisenhower's popularity and large avoidance of the issue prevented much of it. ITTL, Eisenhower stays out of politics due to his support for Dewey and then for health reasons.]

Pan-Arabism appeared on the international scene in 1958 when Egypt, Syria, and Iraq formed the United Arab Republic. Others viewed this with some alarm, and U.S. and U.K. forces were invited into Jordan, Lebanon, and Saudi Arabia. The space race kicked off in earnest, Dewey was intent to not let the U.S. fall any further behind the Soviet Union in space technology after the launching of the first Soviet satellite.

In 1959, France, India, Indonesia, Iran, and Yugoslavia formed the Coalition of Non-Aligned Nations (CNAN) for the purpose of assuring freedom from the influence of outside power as well as economic assistance. This was France's attempt to stay influential in the world (De Gaulle began to see decolonization as nearly inevitable) and to form a "third pole" of world power. The other countries joined because they viewed France as a less threatening partner than the Soviet Union or the U.S. for technical assistance and military supplies. De Gaulle announced a withdraw from NATO and a staged plan for Algerian independence shortly afterwards.

The Soviet Army put down large-scale anti-Soviet protests in Budapest. An estimated 10,000 Hungarians were killed. Dewey and other Western leaders, including De Gaulle, strongly condemned Soviet actions. Communist parties in Western Countries were greatly weakened by the "Hungarian Massacre". Albania left the Berlin Pact and joined the CNAN in protest. Dewey began focusing on containing the Soviet Union and China rather than "International Communism." The U.S. tended to view CNAN as a fairly amusing attempt by the French to play the role of a superpower, but perhaps useful for splitting countries away from the Soviets that won't accept U.S. support.

Fulgencio Batista fled Havana; a new government under Fidel Castro came to power and was recognized by the U.S. Dewey and Castro later met to discuss compensation for U.S. business interests that where nationalized. An agreement was reached with Cuba agreeing to provide a fairer compensation for U.S. businesses. Privately, Dewey assured Castro the U.S. would not interfere with his government if he did not seek ties with the Soviet Union or China. Cuba later joined CNAN.

[map to be added]

Jasen777 · May 15, 2007

In 1960, the U.N. peacekeepers left the Suez Canal upon Egyptian insistence. After claiming a series of border incidents, Nasser led the U.A.R. into a war against Israel. Most viewed this as an attempt to keep the U.A.R. together in the face of growing disenchantment with the U.A.R. by Syrian and Iraqi officials.

British and Kuwaiti forces defeated An Iraqi army that crossed into the U.K.'s Kuwaiti protectorate. The Iraqi government claimed the army acted without orders. Everyone pretended to believe that for fear of badly escalating the Arab-Israeli war (fear of possible Soviet involvement).

After 5 months, the Arab-Israeli war ended with victory for Israel. Israel occupied the Golan Heights, the Gaza Strip, and the Sinai Peninsula. U.N. peacekeeping forces returned to the Suez Canal Zone. Israel and Jordan, which had remained neutral in the war, came to an agreement over the West Bank. Israel received Jerusalem and a small buffer zone, and the rest of the area was officially incorporated Jordan. Shortly after the war, Nasser was assassinated and the Egyptian government became controlled by a series of military juntas. The U.A.R dissolved.

Jasen777 · May 15, 2007

The Republican Consensus and Vietnam

After Dewey declined to run for a third term (which he was eligible for since he was grandfathered in under the terms of the 22nd amendment), his Vice-President Bill Konwland ran and won the 1960 presidential election over Democratic Senator Lyndon Johnson. Republicans obtained a majority in both houses of Congress.

In 1961, fighting occurred between Algerians and French settlers in Algeria. It ended with De Gaulle negotiating a settlement. France agreed to pay Algeria for the lease of their military bases, and French settlers in Algeria were granted joint Algerian-French citizenship.

Vietnam became an issue again as there were widespread protests against President Diem's government in South Vietnam.

After a quiet first term, and blessed with a booming economy, President Knowland won reelection in 1964.

The situation in South Vietnam several worsened in 1966. Diem survived an assassination attempt that promoted him to launch a crackdown on many different groups that were opposed to him. Anti-Diem guerilla fighting broke out in response. This alarmed Knowland because he viewed Diem as an essential ally against the spread of communism. This prompted Knowland to begin sending "observers" to South Vietnam to support Diem.

By 1968 the Anti-Diem guerillas, had clearly known to be communist, and had gained control of isolated sections of South Vietnam. Knowland openly sent combat troops into South Vietnam in an attempt to restore order.

Despite the difficulties in South Vietnam, as well as the raising of an influential new feminist movement (who sought to add sex to the civil rights act) that helped to energize the stagnant Democratic Party, the Republican Party machinery remained quite formidable and Vice President Charles Halleck won the 1968 presidential election.

The fighting in South Vietnam continued to escalate, U.S. troop totals reached over 100,000, and South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, and Thailand begin sending troops. Despite these efforts, Diem's government could not regain control of all areas of South Vietnam.

The conflict in Vietnam was temporality pushed off center stage, as in 1969 U.S. astronaut Buzz Aldrin became the first man on the moon. He uttered the immortal line: "One small step for a man, one giant leap for mankind."

By 1970, desperate for more troops to send to South Vietnam, President Halleck dramatically increased the use of the draft. This act proved very unpopular, and Republicans suffered a major defeat in the mid-term elections as the Democrats gained a majority in both houses.

De Gaulle died in 1970, CNAN (already very loose compared to NATO or the Berlin Pact) as a result began a trend that was to leave it little more than a formality in a decade.

Widespread anti-war demonstrations rocked the U.S. in the winter of 1970. Some Democratic Party leaders called for a withdraw from South Vietnam and for free elections in that country. Australia, New Zealand, and Thailand began withdrawing their forces from South Vietnam. War erupted between India and Pakistan, India emerged as the victor and gained small territorial adjustments, East Pakistan became the independent country of Bangladesh.

With bipartisan support the Civil Rights act was amended to included sex. Republicans hoped that this would disarm the feminist vote in 1972. However, the war proved to be too unpopular, and feminists stayed energized by seizing upon the abortion issue, and Halleck lost the election to New York governor Hugh Carey.

The Carey Presidency

Shortly after his inauguration, Carey fulfilled his campaign promise to begin a phased troop withdraw from South Vietnam. In April of 1974, unknown forces assassinated Diem and the situation in South Vietnam went from bad to complete chaos. The remaining American forces, which numbered about 50,000, quickly made a unglamorous exit from the country. By 1976, Vietnam (both North and South) was fairly stable under the communist government of Le Duan.

Outside of Vietnam Carey enjoyed much better diplomatic success. Egypt's government had become stable under the military government of General Abderahman Negm in 1974, which allowed Egypt to enter into permanent peace talks with Israel. Carey played a role in the negotiations, which concluded with the Treaty of Amman. This treaty provided for control of the Suez Canal Zone being assumed by Egypt and the Israeli agreement to withdraw from the Sinai Peninsula.

Carey also had a diplomatic breakthrough with China, which he visited in 1976. Relations between China and the U.S. were normalized, and Carey went so far as to support China's successful bid to control the U.N. Security Council seat formally controlled by the Republic of China (Taiwan).

The major domestic issue of the time was abortion, the political fighting over which reached new heights when in 1973 Congress nearly passed a legalization of abortion (which would overrule various states' laws that placed restrictions or out right bans on abortion) but was defeated by a coalition of many of the Republicans and Southern Democrats in the Senate. The bill did pass in the next congressional session when enough moderate Republicans supported it for it to pass through the Senate. A judicial challenge of the bill was defeated in 1976, when the Supreme Court refused to hear a case that challenged the law on the grounds that congress had no authority to make laws concerning abortion.

Carey easily won reelection in 1976, behind his declaration that his second term would see a "war on poverty." Working together with the Democratic controlled Congress, Carey started several new welfare programs and expanded Social Security and Medicare. Despite some cut backs in military spending, the expense of these programs (which grew much quicker than forecasted) necessitated an increase in taxes, which proved to be unpopular. In 1978, a recession started in the U.S. and unemployment rose. The increase in unemployment put more people on the welfare roles, further stressing the government's budget.

Carey's second term saw him involved in talks with the Soviet Union. These talks resulted in several arms treaties, with both sides agreeing to cut back on their number of nuclear warheads. An understanding between the U.S. and the Soviet Union, as well as the U.K., France, and China was also reached that they would all seek to prevent the spread of nuclear weapon technology.

Pan-Arabism made a strong comeback in 1980, with both the Iraqi and Syrian governments collapsing due to popular demonstrations. In October, the two nations united into the Arab Federation under the leadership of Iraqi General Ibrahim Ali. Pro-federation demonstrations were put down by force in Egypt and, without complete success, in Saudi Arabia. Unsurprisingly these events lead to much alarm throughout the region.

Saddled with the poor economy, U.S. Vice-President Robert Kennedy lost the 1980 presidential election to his Republican opponent, Arkansas Governor Frank White. The Republican Party also won control of the House but fall short in the Senate. Many saw this election as completing the shift of the South to the Republican Party.

President White

The Middle Eastern situation worsened shortly after White's inauguration. Kurds in Iraq and Syria proclaimed the independent Republic of Kurdistan, pro-federation riots occurred in Lebanon, and Saudi Arabia appeared to many to be on the point of collapse. Kuwait and Saudi Arabia requested foreign help, and the U.S. and U.K. replied by sending forces to help maintain and support those countries. Another response was the Turkish-Iranian Friendship Treaty in which the two countries pledged mutual defense if attacked by any Arabian power.

It remains unclear exactly what happened in July of 1981. Most now think that elements of a Syrian infantry unit crossed into Turkey while engaged with Kurdish forces. Turkey declared that it was attacked by the Arab Federation and requested the active support of it's NATO allies. The was the first activation of the NATO defense treaty, and if it wasn't exactly for what the framers had had in mind, there was the widespread opinion in NATO countries that they couldn't afford to look weak.

NATO was surprised by an Iraqi attack into Kuwait in August of 1981, which sought to prevent a buildup of forces there as well as to possibly force Kuwait into the Arab Federation. This attacked underestimated the already considerable NATO air power in the region however. That airpower and the presence of an U.K. Infantry division and an U.S. armored Division inflicted a serious defeat upon the Iraqi Army. Meanwhile, the large Turkish army had launched a full-scale attack into Syria, backed by NATO airpower based in Turkey. Iran joined the war by activating it's treaty with Turkey and launched an assault towards Baghdad.

The Arab Federation could not long withstand this massive array of force that was directed against it. With Damascus captured by the Turkey's army in November, and the Iranian Army outside of Baghdad, the Arab Federation's surviving leadership surrendered (General Ibrahim Ali had been killed in the fighting). The peace treaty established the independent country of Kurdistan (neither Turkey or Iran wanted this, but it was something of the darling idea of Western leaders) consisting of much of northern Iraq as and a part of Western Syria. On other issues, however, Turkey and Iran got want the wanted. The Arab Federation was officially dissolved, Syria and Iraq were to be largely disarmed, and furthermore Syria and Iraq were to be occupied until they paid reparations for the cost of the war (Since most NATO countries did not want to be seen as profiteering these reparations were to go to just Turkey, Iran, Kuwait, and Kurdistan). In addition, the Israeli claim to the Golan Heights was recognized.

[possible map additon soon]

Jasen777 · May 15, 2007

On the domestic side, President White moved quickly to cut taxes. This proved to be popular and passed Congress easily. Increases in military spending were also achieved, especially with the outbreak of the Arab War. Planned cuts to social programs were less popular and did not pass through Congress. The economy experienced a nice rebound in 1982. The Republican Party was quick to take credit for, citing their tax cuts as stimulating the economy. The biggest political battles of the time were waged over conservatives' attempts to overturn the legalization of abortion. White was largely silent on the issue, and although legislation that would return abortion decisions to the states passed the House twice, they were never was able to pass the Senate. Riding a wave of high popularity, White easily won reelection in 1984 over Democratic candidate Senator Chuck Smith.

White's second term was marked by escalated Cold War tensions, and a large increase in military spending. Rhetoric reached a new in 1986 when the Soviet Union militarily intervened to stop a series of strikes in Poland, and with the killing of several Czech students in a protest march. Shortly afterward, new Soviet Premier Pavel Tarasov embarked upon careful steps of economic liberalization. Others in the Communist Party often stalled his best efforts however. 1986 also marked the withdraw of U.N. peacekeepers from Syria and Iraq. The administration was still quite popular, and Vice-President Bob Dole won the presidential election in 1988.

In 1988, and after decades of discussion, the European Economic Community was finally expanded to include: Denmark, Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, and the United Kingdom. The change comes as the French leadership realized their attempt to form a "third power" through CNAN is a failure, and to work for European integration instead.

Foreign issues soon came to the front for President Dole, as widespread strikes occurred in Poland, Czechoslovakia, and East German to protest Soviet control. Dole strongly condemned Soviet policy towards Eastern Europe. He also announced the U.S. was developing a missile defense system designs to prevent a nuclear strike on America.

The Turbulent '90s

The U.S. and the Western hemisphere

Tensions between the U.S. and Panama came to a head in 1991 when the new Panamanian government under President Pedro Torrijos demanded that the U.S. allow Panama to control the canal. The Dole administration rejected this outright, and several engagements occurred between small units of the Panamanian militia and U.S. forces around the canal. Dole ordered more forces into the region, and a wider conflict seemed inevitable. A U.S.-Panamanian conflict was averted however when General Jesus Altamiranda lead a coup that overthrew Torrijos. The new government reaffirmed the treaty that granted the U.S. the right to govern the Panama Canal Zone in perpetuity. The extent, if any, of the U.S. involvement in the coup remains uncertain.

South America saw a spread of democracy in the 90's. Argentina, Chile, and Paraguay all, peacefully, passed from military governments to democratically elected ones.

The early 90's saw a little economic slump in the U.S., this along with Dole's lack of charisma and perhaps simply a desire for change after 12 years of a Republican Presidency, lead to a surprise victory for New Jersey Governor Charles Rose over Dole in the 1992 Presidential election. Rose perused moderate economic policies and slightly liberal social policies. He proved to be quite popular, likely benefiting from an upswing in the economy, as well as getting some of the credit for the collapse of the Berlin Pact. He easily won reelection in 1996. He proved to be instrumental in the formation of American Free Trade Union in 1996. It consisted of Canada, Mexico and the United States. It was hoped that the organization might eventually expand to include the entire western hemisphere. His second term saw the addition of sexual orientation to the Civil Rights act, and the acceptance of homosexuals in the military.

Europe and the Soviet Union

The decade of the '90s saw conflict spread throughout Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union. Western Europe drew closer together under a wave of "Europeanization." The E.E.C. expanded in 1998 to include Austria, Finland, and Sweden, and talks begun over a more substantial union between the European countries.

One area of conflict was in Yugoslavia, which under Prime Minster Ante Markovic had started a successful reform program in 1989 that continued to pick up momentum in the early 90's. Yugoslavia was even talked about as a candidate for inclusion in the next round of expansion for the EEC. Many of the nationalist secessionist movements had withered due to Markovic's popularity and the increase in prosperity of Yugoslavia under his leadership, but that wasn't the case for many Serbian nationalists.

In 1993, a significant faction of the Yugoslavian army under the leadership of General Stevan Petrovic declared Serbia's independence; this started the Yugoslavian Civil War that lasted until 1997. The war was mainly between pro-independence Serbs and the rest of Yugoslavia, although groups were formed that sought independence for a Croat or Slovenia country as well. Ultimately, the new nation of Serbia was formed, although it was smaller than the Serbian Nationalists had hoped for, and the rest of Yugoslavia had held together.

Soviet Premier Pavel Tarasov and the reform faction had been able to implement more of their policies by 1991, slightly lessening the state controls of the economy in some areas. What was of more impact was the softer line taken towards Eastern Europe. This lead to more protests and strikes in several countries (since they were no longer subject to be put down by force) and by 1994 Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, East Germany, Hungary, Poland, and Romania had developed governments that broke ties with the Soviet Union. The Berlin Pact was finished and Soviet troops were withdrawn from those countries. In 1996, East Germany was reunited with West Germany to form one country, which continued West Germany's commitment to NATO and the EEC.

Reform continued in the Soviet Union, and it began to look like the Soviet Union itself might be dissolved. Indeed, the Baltic Republics declared independence in 1997, and shortly after Tarasov resigned and the Supreme Soviet dissolved itself. Talks about a looser confederation, perhaps merely economic cooperation like the EEC, were ended abruptly when a hardliner coup lead by Vladimir Batov took control of Moscow. The majority of the Soviet Army came to support Batov. Batov's intention to reunite the Soviet Union, by force if necessary, soon became clear. Western leaders strongly denounced Batov and proposed sanctions, but any possible military action was dissuaded by the nuclear threat.

The new leaders of Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine, who were busy trying to form a cohesive military out of former Soviet personal loyal to them, announced that they would resist reincorporation by force, including nuclear. This worked for Kazakhstan and Ukraine, whose new governments had managed to secure a large number of former Soviet nuclear weapons. Forces loyal to Batov had secured the nuclear weapons in Belarus however, and Batov's Soviet Army soon controlled it. By 1999, the chaos had subsided. Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova (which would later join Romania), Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, had achieved independence, protected by Kazakhstan's and Ukraine's nuclear weapons and their position. Batov and the new hardline communists controlled Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Russia, although small-scale resistance would continue.

Africa

The African continent saw a lot of turmoil during the 90's, but it did not receive much attention from the rest of the world. Military juntas and Warlords engaging in civil conflicts dominated many of the African countries, and a series of famines devastated parts of Eastern and Central Africa throughout the period. A couple of good exceptions to the general rule were Egypt, which developed a representative government, and Algeria which enjoyed a good amount of economic growth to the point where true first world status seemed not out of question in the near future.

Pro-Eritera independence forces had long waged a conflict against Ethiopian rule, and this continued in the 90's. A vote was finally held in 1995, in which the Eritrean region voted to remain a part of Ethiopia. Although sporadic attacks continued, this served to delegitimize the movement and Ethiopia ha less trouble with the region afterward.

In some ways the wealthiest country on the continent, South Africa began to see true integration of it's black population in the 90's.

Asia

India and Pakistan had a short conflict over Kashmir in 1991. The war did not resolve anything, and both sides agreed to a peace fearing what China might do.

China began to loosen control on their economy in 1993, and begun to experience a great increase in foreign investment and general economic growth. Vietnam also loosened their economy, and they joined in the economic growth that happened in the Asian-Pacific region in general.

Incidents involving the Kurdish minorities in Turkey and Iran who sought to join Kurdistan flared up sporadically. This put the U.S. and a tough position, since Turkey was part of NATO, Kurdistan was an ally, and relations with Iran were friendly. The Dole and Rose administration both spent considerable diplomatic effort to ease tension in the area, and the issue faded over time as some of the more insistent Kurds emigrated to Kurdistan, and it became apparent that many Kurds were happy enough living in Turkey or Iran, especially when those countries both enjoyed economic booms. Iraq and Syria went through much inner turmoil, with each being ruled by military juntas that changed often. Due to rather harsh U.N. sanctions, both countries remained poor and not significant threats militarily.

Jasen777 · May 15, 2007

The New Millennium

The U.S. and the Western hemisphere

Vice-President Brad Emerson won election to the Presidency in 2000. He attempted to reform Social Security and Medicare, but was not able to accomplish much. Gay marriage became an issue, as many thought that the recent amending of the Civil Rights should have made it legal. Courts ruled against that idea however, and it remained an issue that was decided by the states, none of who have legalized gay marriage. Concern arose over nuclear proliferation, as not only had Kazakhstan and Ukraine gained nuclear capability, but India had sometime in the 90's, and Iran and Pakistan did in 2002. In addition, Israel was suspected of having nuclear weapons, and it was feared that some of the Soviet nukes may have been lost in the turmoil or that the Soviets (or Ukraine or Kazakhstan) might sell nuclear technology to other countries.

In 2004, facing a slowing economy, as well as the 12-year curse, Emerson lost his re-election to Republican Ohio Governor Neil Walker. The election marked a conservative resurgence, and the Republicans regained control of both houses of Congress. Walker continued the recent trend towards increasing free trade and worked to expand the AFTU. This effort succeeded in 2006, when Argentina, Chile, and Uruguay joined. Congress increased military spending, especially concerning missile defense as previous developments had yet to yield anything that could possibly prevent anything other than a very small attack. Congress also saw serious battles in the attempt to place limits on abortion, banning it in the third trimester. This, or similar, legislation passed the House several times, but it was always stopped by Democratic filibusters in the Senate.

Europe and the Soviet Union

The Soviet Union was a shell of it's former self after all the conflict of the '90s. It had lost a lot of resources and material to the breakaway countries. It still had a sizeable chunk of it's nuclear weaponry, and the Red Army was rebuilt to almost the same size, although it was of much lesser quality and even the remaining elite units were using technology that was practically obsolete in many ways. Batov's government was harsher on the Soviet citizens that any regime since Stalin's.

The Soviet economy went in the tank after the turmoil and it remains to be seen if it can ever approach what it once was. The space program was devastated thinks to the loss of Kazakhstan, which was a blow both to Soviet prestige and ended a good means of raising foreign capital. In 2003, when the United States and Europe sent almost all of their food aide to Africa, the Soviet Union was forced to except aide from Ukraine, despite the view in the Communist Party that this was a humiliation. Nevertheless, the Soviet Union remained a military power, even if it could no longer be viewed as a true super power.

The E.E.C. took a step to becoming an even tighter group (perhaps eventually a United States of Europe) in 2004 with the establishment of the European Federation. The details of this federation were murky and are still being worked out today. In 2005, Turkey and Czechoslovakia became associate members, which allowed them into the common market, but not yet into some of the other agreements. Other countries, especially Yugoslavia and Poland, expressed desires to join but it was thought their economies were not yet efficient enough to be allowed to join.

N.A.T.O also expanded during this time. The Soviet threat, although now weakened substantially, worried Eastern Europe a great deal. Czechoslovakia and Poland joined in 2001, and Bulgaria, Hungary, and Yugoslavia joined a year later. The Soviet Union protested these expansions and declared them provocative, but it was nothing but saber rattling. It is clear that the last decade has seen a major swing in the Cold War balance of power. The Ukrainian government wavered over joining, at first offering to do so in April of 2004 only to reject it a few months later. Talks between NATO and the Ukraine continue today. Kazakhstan was asked to join, but their government rejected the offer, noting that NATO was in no position to intercede if the Soviets invaded. They would depend on their nuclear weapons as a deterrent.

Africa

The new millennium held in store much of the same for Africa. Still being paid little attention to by the rest of the world, African has suffered through a series of small wars and much civil strife. Rwanda and Burundi, Zaire and Congo, and Niger and Chad are the wars with the most deaths, although the wars unfortunately never solved anything. Many countries experienced internal strife at one point or another, with Sudan, Yoruba, Liberia and Botswana likely having it the worst.

Asia

China continued their economic liberalization and growth. They experienced diplomatic success in 2003 when they received Hong Kong from the U.K. and Macao from Portugal.

India's economy became a significant global player during this time, and although many in India's leadership were alarmed with Pakistan's gaining of nuclear weapons, it seemed unlikely that there would be another war between the two countries.

The Middle East experienced a disturbing development in 2004, when the ruling military junta of Syria was overthrown by a popular revolt lead by the extremist cleric Nazim Kuftaro. Kuftaro promised that Syria would avenge itself on its enemies (Kurdistan, Israel, and Turkey) y all means available. On July 8th, 2005, 3 car bombs exploded in markets in the Kurdish city of Al Hasakah, killing 60 people. Syrian residents of Kurdistan were found to be guilty, and Kuftaro's influence was suspected. Kurdistan wanted to invade Syria and overthrow Kuftaro, but was stopped from doing so by American and European diplomacy. Kurdistan launched a crackdown on its Syrian residents. This did not prevent, indeed it may have caused, more attacks. Kurdistan is holding elections in two months, and it's widely suspected that if the Kurdish Democratic Party wins the election then we'll see a even greater crackdown on Syrians in it's borders and an invasion to topple Kuftaro.

I did this very simple map, as you can see it can't compare to one of TheLoneAmigo's maps. Note that Yoruba and Casamance are those different countries in Africa that resulted from France's quicker colonial withdraw.

Map of the World in 2007

Jasen777 · May 15, 2007

Map of the World in 2007

Jasen777 · May 15, 2007

Comments and criticisms will be appreciated, about both timeline ideas and my writing.

Baradas · May 15, 2007

What were the Soviets doing during the war in the Middle East?

They were just fine with NATO mobilizing?

TheLoneAmigo · May 15, 2007

Here is the 1960 map:

Jasen777 · May 15, 2007

Baradas said:
What were the Soviets doing during the war in the Middle East?

They were just fine with NATO mobilizing?

They no doubt built up their own forces in the Transcaucasian region and issued protests, but it wasn't worth enough for them to do anything drastic over. After all they'd had an unfriendly Turkey on their border for some time, and the extra NATO forces that deployed there were mainly air assets. Besides Kuwait, practically all the ground fighting was done by Turkey and Iran, so their wasn't a huge threat to the Soviets. And their ties with Syria and Iraq were minimal at this point.

Glen · Jun 13, 2007

Bump Bump Bump Bump

Agentdark · Jun 13, 2007

Cool TL, though I'd like to see a few more maps

Jasen777 · Jun 13, 2007

Well, I was hoping TheLoneAmigo would make a map of the Middle East after the war of '81. But other than that there haven't been all that many border changes from OTL, I think they can been seen on the 2007 world map or on the maps of Korea and Israel that TheLoneAmigo made.

I've been thinking of writing an epilogue...

Thande · Jun 14, 2007

Interesting TL - I would recommend posting it in TLs and Scenarios (hopefully with a more legible font size

)

Jasen777 · Jun 14, 2007

That's probably a good idea, I just went with how it copied in from Word.

Jasen777 · Jul 9, 2007

Afterword

My idea for this timeline was to write a timeline of events as some one who is ITTL's 2007 might write it. So, I'd like to take this chance to explain why some things happened as they did.

Not much changed initially, since Dewey largely followed Truman's foreign policy. He did act faster to arm South Korean troops, and so the Korean War went slightly better for the U.S. and allies (although the war dragged enough for it to be a factor in Dewey losing the '52 election).

A big event for this timeline was President Kefauver's stopping of the plans to oust Iranian Prime Minister Mohammed Mossadegh. The breaks go Iran's way after this, and they development a stable secular constitutional monarchy and a fairly free society (like Turkey in many respects).

Butterflies from Iran caused a more powerful Pan-Arab movement, which was to be the major cause of instability in the Middle East. The Palestinian problem of OTL was largely diffused when Jordan got control of most of the West Bank.

The Iranian example, one more significant neutral country, was enough to push De Gaulle into a more aggressive attempt to form a third pole of power in the cold war. France's attempt to form this third pole with their CNAN partners delayed European integration a bit.

Concerning U.S. domestic politics, Dewey's support of the Civil Rights Act allowed it to pass earlier, but in a version that didn't include gender. This lead to the feminist push for the inclusion of gender to the act during the Vietnam War.

Oh, and ITTL Buzz Aldrin gets to be first man on the moon, and he says the line correctly.

In some ways 2007 ITTL is a nicer place than OTL, especially for Iran, Algeria, and Israel. The specter of violent radical Islam is almost non-existent; the sole major terrorism attack has been against Kurdistan and as function of Arab nationalism rather than religion. Against this of course, is the threat of the hard-line communist Soviet Union, which although weakened substantially by the loss of the Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and the Central Asian SSR's (not to mention it's European satellite states), still has more than enough nukes to produce a fear of MAD.

Glen · Jul 9, 2007

A big congratulations to our first Timeline Contest winner, Jasen777. Your name shall go down with the immortals....