WI Hitler had not gone to war?

[NapoleonXIV]

AFAIK Hitler's greatest successes were diplomatic. Militarily, he had good generals. WI he had decided to capitalize on his strengths? How much could he have accomplished through patience and diplomacy, or would it have even saved him at all?

[fhaessig]

One word : Economics

[esl]

Hitler was driven by extreme paranoia and he saw every thing as threat. He would not have been able to sit by and let such threats remain. One way or another he would have struck. Only real way to avoid war is to remove Hitler from power, and even that only limits the size of the war encountered.

[Locke]

Its impossible for him to go to war-either way, something would have triggered it. For example, Japan.

[merlin]

Hitler's first aim was to avenge the terms of the Versailles Treaty. If he could do so by diplomacy only, well all well and good. His second was to obtain 'living space' in the East - snag Russia was already there.
No problem with the Rhineland - after all as some said 'it's only his own back yard'. However by building defences on that border he was able to use that as safeguard from the French - giving him a freer hand in the east.
The Austrian takeover, gave other countries 'food for thought'. When it came to the Czechs, France & Britain chickened out. Chamberlain, thought Hitler an honourable man!! Whilst in reality, he wasn't even Napolean - more like Genghis Khan!!
After the final takeover of the Czechs in March '39 - it gave a wake-up call to the Anglo-French alliance, hence the guarrantee to the Poles.

Perhaps Hitler's only other option, to delay war, was somehow to co-opt Poland into the Axis like Hitler did with Hungary & Rumania.

Whilst the democracies were doing everything they could to avoid war, Hitler was doing everything he could to prevoke one - and felt cheated when it didn't come.

But if the Germans took Poland without an Anglo-French declaration. Where & when would Hitler's next demand - Holland, Denmark. Norway, or Strassburg!??

[Homer]

Originally Posted by merlin

Perhaps Hitler's only other option, to delay war, was somehow to co-opt Poland into the Axis like Hitler did with Hungary & Rumania.

That can't be done. Reverting Versailles would already mean to get the Corridor back and Upper Silesia, hence to get large parts of Poland annexed into Germany. And then "Lebensraum" in the east is not restricted to the Soviet Union. Poland would of course be part of the Lebensraum. The Hungarians may get away, as would the Romanians. But according to Nazi ideology, the Poles are doomed.

Originally Posted by merlin

But if the Germans took Poland without an Anglo-French declaration. Where & when would Hitler's next demand - Holland, Denmark. Norway, or Strassburg!??

Hitler never was interested in starting a war in the West. He actually hoped for exactly what you proposed. Thus, when the world accepts occupation of Poland, the next step would be war against the Soviets.

[HurganPL]

Hitler never was interested in starting a war in the West. He actually hoped for exactly what you proposed. Thus, when the world accepts occupation of Poland, the next step would be war against the Soviets.

Hitler wanted to neutralise France before fighting Soviets.
He truly hoped for agreement with Poland in 1938, believing it would be turned into puppet state and later wanted to annex Western Poland.
Poland would remain neutral during German-French war, afterwards Germany, Japan, Italy, Poland, Hungary, Romania etc. would gang up with hundreds of divisions against Soviet Union.

[Homer]

Originally Posted by HurganPL

Hitler wanted to neutralise France before fighting Soviets.

Neutralizing does not necessarily mean defeating militarily

If the western powers would have allowed him to conquer Poland, he would not have started a war with the West then. And then IOTL he fought the Soviets without neutralizing Britain.

If the western powers really allow him to get on Poland, they'd be quite pleased to see him fight the Soviets. They'd hope for the dictators to weaken themselves.

Originally Posted by David S Poepoe

He truly hoped for agreement with Poland in 1938, believing it would be turned into puppet state and later wanted to annex Western Poland.

Nope. Hitler wanted war, but war in the east, not war in the west. Hitler wanted Lebensraum in the east, whereas in the west he had to fight fellow aryans. And he did not want to turn Poland into a puppet state. Poland should be destroyed. Nazi ideology is quite clear about that: Poland is Lebensraum for the master race, and the Poles would just be slaves serving their aryan masters. The Generalgouvernement was not a puppet-state, it was part of the German Empire, but with a special status.

One time in the future, the western powers should of course be subdued to the German Empires, but Hitler actually believed that one time they join voluntarily because his ideology would have proven to be right.

Originally Posted by David S Poepoe

Poland would remain neutral during German-French war, afterwards Germany, Japan, Italy, Poland, Hungary, Romania etc. would gang up with hundreds of divisions against Soviet Union.

Poland cannot ally itself with Nazis! Poland would share the fate of the Soviet Union under Nazi rulership.

[esl]

Lets not forget that after Munich in 1938, Hitler finally recognised what some of his generals had been telling him for years, that war would eventually have to occur between UK & Germany. Hitler was convinced he could cut a deal with the British offering them Empire in exchange for Europe.

The center piece of German strategy envisaged war with France and Poland first, even if it meant a two front war. The problem was while the original strategy [Groener 1928] argued that Germany would have to be also have to 'have a reasonable chance of winning the wider European war', Hitler was so convinced of his abilities, he was condident he could navigate around war with UK/USSR until the time of his choosing. He believed both were weak and would not resist. Clearly he misunderstood their resolve and misscalculated. Plain racial arrogance , wishful thinking or inexcusable ignorance?

Tooze argues that after Munich Hitler changed his mind and recognized that America was the biggest threat to Germany and the sooner Germany built its empire on the ashes of the Slavs, the sooner he could attack the American/Jewish threat. Did he just rush his stategy and thus gloss over the akward truths about embarking on such a risky venture?

[Homer]

Originally Posted by esl

Lets not forget that after Munich in 1938, Hitler finally recognised what some of his generals had been telling him for years, that war would eventually have to occur between UK & Germany. Hitler was convinced he could cut a deal with the British offering them Empire in exchange for Europe.

That's it. Hilter started the war with the West because the West didn't let him do what he wanted. Yet he still hoped to get away quite easy. He hoped for a quick peace treaty with the UK.

Originally Posted by esl

The center piece of German strategy envisaged war with France and Poland first, even if it meant a two front war. The problem was while the original strategy [Groener 1928] argued that Germany would have to be also have to 'have a reasonable chance of winning the wider European war', Hitler was so convinced of his abilities, he was condident he could navigate around war with UK/USSR until the time of his choosing. He believed both were weak and would not resist. Clearly he misunderstood their resolve and misscalculated. Plain racial arrogance , wishful thinking or inexcusable ignorance?

War with France seemed necessary to achieve the goals the Nazis had. However, he'd have preferred not to go to war with France. He was forced to do so, in his eyes. And the same is true with Britain, which is in Nazi ideology an Aryan/Germanic country ruling the world and therefore a natural ally and good example for racial supremacy, whereas the Soviet Union is evil.

I think all your points are true: Hitlers believes were influenced by racial arrogance, a large portion of wishful thinking and ignorance - but also experience. The western powers did nothing when he occupied the Rhineland. They did nothing against the Anschluss. They accepted Munich, and they did nothing when he invaded the rest of czechoslovakia. He really had some reasons to believe that the western powers would stand aside again when he turns on Poland. Especially when it seemed that he's got the Soviet Union on his side.

Originally Posted by esl

Tooze argues that after Munich Hitler changed his mind and recognized that America was the biggest threat to Germany and the sooner Germany built its empire on the ashes of the Slavs, the sooner he could attack the American/Jewish threat. Did he just rush his stategy and thus gloss over the akward truths about embarking on such a risky venture?

Well, there was the example of WWI, where an unattackable US stepped in and decided it - or would have decided it, depending on how you see US-involvement. It was clear that he had to reckon with the US. Also I still think the main reason he declared war was that he hoped that the Japanese would do the same against the Soviets. United against the Soviets, and then with eurasia in their hands united against the US. Something like that.

Nevertheless, as you said, his Empire would have been built on the ashes of the slavs, or maybe on the shoulders of slavic Slaves. Therefore Poland is doomed and there's no chance of a Nazi-Polish arrangement. Only Slovacs and southern Slavs may get away as vassal states.

[Wozza]

Originally Posted by esl

Tooze argues that after Munich Hitler changed his mind and recognized that America was the biggest threat to Germany and the sooner Germany built its empire on the ashes of the Slavs, the sooner he could attack the American/Jewish threat. Did he just rush his stategy and thus gloss over the akward truths about embarking on such a risky venture?

You've read Wages of Destruction now? Have you been converted to truth and light?

I think it an interesting suggestion that the US threat leads Hitler to speed up his plans (such as they are) but the simple fact that he is flush with success cannot be ignored.

[Calgacus]

Originally Posted by Wozza

You've read Wages of Destruction now? Have you been converted to truth and light?

I think it an interesting suggestion that the US threat leads Hitler to speed up his plans (such as they are) but the simple fact that he is flush with success cannot be ignored.

Saturday Wozza? What is the world coming to??

[esl]

Originally Posted by Wozza

You've read Wages of Destruction now? Have you been converted to truth and light?

I think it an interesting suggestion that the US threat leads Hitler to speed up his plans (such as they are) but the simple fact that he is flush with success cannot be ignored.

I've read "Statistics and the German State" and spoken with Adam Tooze. I'm currently reading "Wages of Destruction" and not all together convinced.... We'll see.

Yes, we must always remember that Hitlers motivations were quite different from his Generals and strategists. Berenice Carroll ["Design for Total War- Arms and Economics in the Third Reich"], points out that Hitler viewed Eastern Europe as a substitue for a expensive economy expansion, which is why he actively blocked all attempts at stockpiling and development of 'armaments in depth' [total war economy].

Instead he pushed for 'armaments in breadth'. He believed that occupation of Eastern Europe/USSR as a forgone conclustion and a short cut to an 'total war economy'. We could conclude that his experiences of the 1930s lead him to this conclusion , only if we also assume, he understood how risky the venture was.Its clear in retrospect he didn't. I suspect his belief in his own powers ,blinded him some what to these risks ...deluding him into believeing he could bridge the gap between destitue Germany of the late 1920s and Global superpower to dominate the world in the early 1940s.

Calgacus , your from Glasgow, Scotland. I used to vacation in Dunoon/Innellan across the Clydebank. I was born and raise in Edinburgh but true to my traitorist routes ,I aways supported Glascow Celtic