AH Challenge: Zoroastrianism main religion of Iran

[Xen]

With a POD no earlier than January 1, 1900 have some event occur in Persia/Iran that causes Zoroastrianism to make a major come back, and become the majority religion in Iran.

Lets avoid anything drastic such as a nuclear holocaust, or the minority Zoroastrians lording it over the majority Muslims, and the population of Zoroastrian Persia has to be at least roughly two thirds of what the population of Iran is now (65 million).

Also there can be no foreign power to help them accomplish this, IE the US cant invade and start placing the Zoroastrians in charge, however if there is a Civil War any foreign power can choose to support one side or the other.

If needs be there can be a peace between Islamic Iran and Zoroastrian Persia in which the nation is ultimately divided (IE North Korea/South Korea; West Germany/East Germany).

Good luck! And can you say revival?

[Analytical Engine]

Originally Posted by Xen

With a POD no earlier than January 1, 1900 have some event occur in Persia/Iran that causes Zoroastrianism to make a major come back, and become the majority religion in Iran.

Lets avoid anything drastic such as a nuclear holocaust, or the minority Zoroastrians lording it over the majority Muslims, and the population of Zoroastrian Persia has to be at least roughly two thirds of what the population of Iran is now (65 million).

Also there can be no foreign power to help them accomplish this, IE the US cant invade and start placing the Zoroastrians in charge, however if there is a Civil War any foreign power can choose to support one side or the other.

If needs be there can be a peace between Islamic Iran and Zoroastrian Persia in which the nation is ultimately divided (IE North Korea/South Korea; West Germany/East Germany).

Good luck! And can you say revival?

I think that would be ASB.

The PoD should be more like the 7th Centuary CE for something like that to happen.

[Xen]

Originally Posted by Analytical Engine

I think that would be ASB.

The PoD should be more like the 7th Centuary CE for something like that to happen.

This is why its a challenge, a near impossible one, but there have been more difficult.

[Max Sinister]

A very eccentric Shah, similar to Reza, with the difference that he tries to make the country Zoroastrian instead of 5th-strongest economic power worldwide. However, Reza's idea was more feasible. After all, apostasy from Islam is punishable by death.

[Analytical Engine]

Originally Posted by Xen

This is why its a challenge, a near impossible one, but there have been more difficult.

Not many, I think.

Seriously, though, the "no earlier than 1900" bit makes it more or less impossible to do. I don't think that the Shia population would take to Zoroastrianism that well. (And that's putting it mildly.)

That's why I'd consider this ASB of the highest calibre.

[Xen]

Originally Posted by Analytical Engine

Not many, I think.

Seriously, though, the "no earlier than 1900" bit makes it more or less impossible to do. I don't think that the Shia population would take to Zoroastrianism that well. (And that's putting it mildly.)

That's why I'd consider this ASB of the highest calibre.

Try making Wyoming the most populated state in the Union without any geographial or border changes, no gold, no oil discovered there, no major economical source, no nuclear war or catastrophe. That was the only one I found impossible

[Analytical Engine]

Originally Posted by Xen

Try making Wyoming the most populated state in the Union without any geographial or border changes, no gold, no oil discovered there, no major economical source, no nuclear war or catastrophe. That was the only one I found impossible

Now that is ASB.

[Ran Exilis]

A Zoroastrian Iran with a POD no earlier than 1 January 1900?

I have to agree with the others that that is just plain ASB...

In my opinion, the latest POD for a Zoroastrian Iran that still is reasonably possible would be during the period of the early Il-Khanate (Zoroastrianism appearantly experienced a renaissance during the early period of the Il-Khanate), and even that would be a longshot.

I just don't see Shi'a Islam being replaced by any other religion in Iran (not even Baha'i'ism,
which would be the most likely candidate for this in my opinion) after the year 1900 in just one century time...

[Leo Caesius]

Originally Posted by Xen

If needs be there can be a peace between Islamic Iran and Zoroastrian Persia in which the nation is ultimately divided (IE North Korea/South Korea; West Germany/East Germany).

Zoroastrian "Persia" implies at least the province of Fars (pop. 4,385,869); the Zoroastrians live primarily in neighboring Yazd and Kerman provinces (pops. 958,318 and 2,432,927 respectively). To give this Zoroastrian Persia access to the sea, we'd have to add some or all of Hormozgan (pop. 1,314,667). That's slightly more than 9 million Iranians all told, out of a total population of some 70 million, well within the 1/3 limit set by the challenger. So, if this region secedes, there will still be enough Muslim Iranians to fit the challenge.

Now for the Zoroastrians: at present there are really very few in Iran. Estimates range from 25,000 to 50,000. Let's take 40,000 as a number that is frequently cited somewhere in the middle of the range. Note that the number has been dwindling rather than growing, so for the purposes of this challenge we should assume that it has remained stable or even decreased during this time period. The worldwide population of Zoroastrians is no more than a quarter million, and probably considerably less. Those who currently live in India and Pakistan might well be tempted to emigrate to a Zoroastrian state.

For starters, many Zoroastrians converted to Baha'ism before the turn of the century. If the Zoroastrians were to get political sovereignty, the apostates might be willing to return to their original faith. At the very least, Baha'is would be likely to move (or stay, for those in Fars) if the Zoroastrians guarantee their religious freedom. There may be upwards of half a million Baha'is in Iran today.

The population of Iran was roughly 8 million in 1900. It has therefore increased roughly 9-fold. Therefore, let's assume that the territory we're looking at has a population of 1 million in 1900 (a dangerous assumption, but since there weren't any censuses until the 1920s, one that must be made).

There was an epidemic of cholera in Persia at this time, starting in Bushehr in 1899 and reaching its apex in 1904. This was accompanied by vehement anti-Babi demonstrations as well as calls to expel the British and American doctors and the Belgians, who were responsible for collecting taxes in the province. Sheikh Khaz'al, who was in charge of the nearly autonomous emirate of Mohammerah, seized the opportunity to shut down the port to all travelers for fear of the cholera spreading into his territory. So - and I'm just thinking out loud here - perhaps we assume that the American and British doctors are expelled, the cholera is much worse than it was in the OTL, and a civil war between Khaz'al and the Qajars results in the British and the Belgians intervening on the side of Muhammerah, and occupying much of southern Iran.

This would give us, at least in the interim, a territory occupied by a mixture of Bahais, Babis, Zoroastrians, and Muslims, with the latter predominating. As the cholera rages, its effects will be much more deleterious in the cities, dominated by the Muslims, than in the isolated villages where the Zoroastrians live. Perhaps Parsi immigrants and relapsed Bahai contribute to a demographic resurgence of Zoroastrians in Iran.

The main problem with this scenario, as I see it, is the fact that the British are very unlikely to fall for it.