Other major nations turning Axis?

[mowque]

How do you think the (pick a number) following would affect WW2?

1. Spain turns Axis. Franco takes a chance, in 1940-1941 (?)
2. turkey goes Axis. Turkey gets scared/bullied into joining
3. Argentina goes axis. Argentina gets some guts and goes for it
4. any combo of the three.

?

[Hapsburg]

Brazil is also a possibility. The kicker is that Brazilian fascists were steadfastly anti-racist, for the most part. Mainly due the great ethnic diversity of Brazil, and the aim of run-of-the-mill fascism being to unite the nation under the state.

[JEDCJT]

Originally Posted by mowque

How do you think the (pick a number) following would affect WW2?

1. Spain turns Axis. Franco takes a chance, in 1940-1941 (?)
2. turkey goes Axis. Turkey gets scared/bullied into joining
3. Argentina goes axis. Argentina gets some guts and goes for it
4. any combo of the three.

?

First option is probably unlikely since Spain was still very much ravaged by its three-year civil war to contribute anything significant to the Axis Powers. The effort of Hitler to convince, in 1940, Spanish dictator Francisco Franco to join the Axis came to nothing because Franco demanded more than Hitler was prepared to give.

Turkey, I'm not very sure of, and the same goes for Argentina.

[Chengar Qordath]

As I recall part of the problem with Spain was that Canaris was the one negotiating with Franco, and given that Canaris was an Allied agent he was not exactly trying all that hard to win him over.

[Wendell]

Turkey is the best bet. There's land for it to gain, and panturanism could be used to their advantage. Not to mention the possibility of complicating the war in the Middle East.

[general_tiu]

The problem is that Turkey still remembers how they were 'betrayed' or not helped by Germany in WWII.

But I think even so, Spain would be a good bet, provided that the bulk of the French Army escaped into Spain instead to Britain, and this posed a problem for Franco.

[Karlos]

Here's a POD for Spain.
1936. The military's coup is discovered and aborted by the republican governement. (as it happened before in OTL, they only send Franco to Canary Islands where they thought he could do no harm)
1939. Spain remains neutral but pro-allied.
1940. After France's fall, the spanish military try again, this time with the help of two german armored divisions that come from France. This time it's not Franco, but another more pro-nazi who assumes power. Maybe Serraño Suñer, or even Jose Antonio Primo the Rivera, founder of The Falange (a fascist-like movement) The german help comes with the unnegotiable condition that Spain enters the Axis and Gibraltar is taken. With the panzers at the border, few spanish fascist argue that. The fight is over and Spain in the Axis by august 1940. Before the end of the year, the Med is in Axis hands and the italo-spanish-germans are at the gates of Palestina, Irak and its oil.
The germans have two good chances: One, if the british give up and sign peace, after getting rid of Churchill. Two, even if they don't, when Barbarrosa comes the germans have a lot more oil and the chance to deny the soviets of their own.
If after all they fail like in OTL, well, Spain would be a battlefield but we would not suffer 40 years of dictatorship.

[Grey Wolf]

Franco was basically unwilling to take the chance because having worked so hard to gain power in Spain he was unwilling to risk it by getting involved in someone else's war where Spain had nothing to gain. Risk was too much, even when it seemed a small risk, such as in 1940 when Germany simply asked to go THROUGH Spain to take Gibraltar FOR Spain.

You basically need to have a much better Axis situation to make Franco think it is worth it - i.e. a situation where even if the Allies defeat the Germans they won't bother with Spain because it would be too much effort

Maybe if Rommel takes Egypt and Hitler's Stalingrad/Caucasus offensive is co-ordinated on one objective and succeeds ? Perhaps with Britain AND the USSR on the back foot ?

But perhaps then only IF Hitler had not been so stupid as to declare war on the USA needlessly

Grey Wolf

[1940LaSalle]

Wasn't Finland under the control of a quasi-military dictator at the time--and wasn't Finland loosely associated with the Axis as a function of the winter war against the Soviet Union (a sort of "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" association)? If so, perhaps there might have been some sort of extra incentive could put Finland in the Axis camp--and maybe in turn coerce Sweden to be a (very reluctant) Axis member out of sheer self-preservation?

[Prinz Richard Eugen]

1. Spain has not recovered from the Spanish Civil War. With German help, it can grab Gibraltar and help pressure Malta. As long as England keeps Egypt, the Allies control North Africa - and, more importantly, the oil fields. Maybe Franco can increase troops in Russia to a corps or two and send a couple divisions to Rommell, but theses would be of Italian quality. Also, England will grab the Canary Islands, helping the anti-Uboat campaign.

2. Turkey could bring pressure on Syria and Mesopotamia, as well as add another threat to Stalin. However, its a long way to the middle east from Istanbul and I don't believe the Turks have the ability to supply many troops that distance. The Germans won't be of much help here, as logistics are not their strong suit. And it is all mountians on the Russian border (see problems in WWI and the 19th centuries stuggles in this area).

3. Argentina could provide Uboat bases and bases for German raiders. But it is too far away to supply or send significant reinforcements. It would be covered by a naval blockade out of Brazil - a member of the Allies in WWII. Backed by US supplies, it sent a couple divisions to fight in Italy. It would have provided the manpower in the war with Argentina. Of the 3 nations listed, it would be the worst choice.

Of course, even incompetent friends are better than none at all. Their participation would have prolonged the conflict.

[Grimm Reaper]

Franco did meet with Hitler to discuss his requirements before entering the war and Hitler commented that he would rather lose two or three teeth than go through that again.

Argentina would be a disastrous choice. The US and Brazil would invade and the US would be mobilized months earlier than OTL. Extremely bad idea for Berlin.

[Shadow Knight]

Well depending on the PoD you could possibly have had a Chinese government of some sort be involved in the Axis.

[Nekromans]

Originally Posted by Shadow Knight

Well depending on the PoD you could possibly have had a Chinese government of some sort be involved in the Axis.

What, like the Menjiang and the Nanjing governments?

[Chengar Qordath]

Originally Posted by Shadow Knight

Well depending on the PoD you could possibly have had a Chinese government of some sort be involved in the Axis.

Certianly possible considering the close relations between Germany and China until Hitler chose to start courting Japan because he thought them more likely to fight the Soviets. Of course, the downside is that winning over the Nationalists means sacrificing any hope of an alliance with Japan.

Could this end up resulting in a three-way WWII with Japan at war with both the Axis and the Allies?

[Shadow Knight]

Originally Posted by Nek

What, like the Menjiang and the Nanjing governments?

You'd probably have to ask someone a little more knowledgeable on the subject. But I could see a Nationalist China allying with Germany against the Soviets if the Soviets had clearly backed the Communists and they were not at war with Japan. Now I wouldn't expect the Chinese to do much as their power projection wasn't all that great but the Soviet Union had a very large land border with China...which would or could draw a lot of Soviet manpower that would be better used against Germany.

From China's point of view it is a win scenario (well as long as Germany wins) because it could see Russia broken and out of the Chinese sphere (along with traditional areas returned to China like Mongolia and the Amur River region). And once the Russian threat is dealt with they could concentrate against the Japanese.

Originally Posted by Chengar Qordath

Certianly possible considering the close relations between Germany and China until Hitler chose to start courting Japan because he thought them more likely to fight the Soviets. Of course, the downside is that winning over the Nationalists means sacrificing any hope of an alliance with Japan.

Could this end up resulting in a three-way WWII with Japan at war with both the Axis and the Allies?

Unlikely as Japan might just join the allies or just solely be at war with China. It would really come down to how and what was the PoD.

[Wendell]

Originally Posted by Chengar Qordath

Certianly possible considering the close relations between Germany and China until Hitler chose to start courting Japan because he thought them more likely to fight the Soviets. Of course, the downside is that winning over the Nationalists means sacrificing any hope of an alliance with Japan.

Could this end up resulting in a three-way WWII with Japan at war with both the Axis and the Allies?

Or, this keeps the Americans out of the war, and Hitler wins

One assumes that such a POD would be post-Manchukuo. As such, China starts out slightly more concentrated. Any scheme to chase after the Soviets at that point would be concentrated in and towards Central Asia.

Then again, suppose that the Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact was a trip[artite agreement between Germany, the USSR, and China....

[LordInsane]

Finland was, for all intents and purposes, axis in the Continuation War (not the Winter War), altough it was a democracy (Marshal Mannerheim ware influential, but in no way ruling the country)

[Strategos' Risk]

I think another country of note is Portugal. Their best position would be neutral until the Axis start to lose, but they could go either way:

Allies- Like so many others, they declared war on the Axis near the end. But Portugal has had a multi-century long treaty with Britain, and are unlikely to make war with them. Furthermore, I think while Salazar was supportive of Mussolini's Catholic-corporatist fascism (or maybe Franco's?), he was against the near-pagan national socialism of Hitler.

Axis- In the otherwise excellent Shattered World timeline, Portugal switches from the Allies analogue to the Axis one once things get rough. I think that makes sense- the Spaniards are right next door, and it's better to be on their side as a satellite state than be annexed (unless Salazar was really that keen on fleeing to Angola or, hell, Brazil and making war from there). However, in SWTL, the Portuguese were also uneasy because the Allies wanted them to have free elections and such. I think that given that TL's circumstances (much bigger Axis, though they were slightly damaged from a massive war with the Soviets), the British and French wouldn't care how democratic Portugal is, as long as they're against the Axis. And besides, Salazar was likely popular enough that elections would have added to his power and legitimacy, not take it away.

[nunya]

Spain?Iran?Iraq?Norway?

[stevep]

Originally Posted by nunya

Spain?Iran?Iraq?Norway?

Spain is one of the big options. Britain sat on a pro-Axis revolt in Iraq and with Russia occupied Iran in part to remove elements favourable to the Nazis. Norway was occupied and had its own, fairly insignificant, collaborators. With all due respect to those 3 however its unlikely that at the time they would count as significant ally other than possibly simply their position.

Steve