Trying for a REALISTIC Central Powers victory

[Grey Wolf]

From 'The New Penguin Atlas of Recent History' by Colin McEvedy, a map to be followed by some links and information focusing on the East

Grey Wolf

[Grey Wolf]

http://gsteinbe.intrasun.tcnj.edu/ro...es/estonia.htm

Adolf Friedrich, Duke of Mecklenburg-Schwerin (1873- ). Nominated Duke of the United Baltic Duchy in accordance with a 1918 resolution by the General Provincial Assembly in Riga that called upon the German Emperor Wilhelm II to recognize the Baltic provinces of Latvia and Estonia as a monarchy and German protectorate.

http://gsteinbe.intrasun.tcnj.edu/ro.../lithuania.htm

Duke Wilhelm Karl of Urach, Count of Württemberg (1864-1928), who was elected King Mindove II of Lithuania by the Lithuanian Taryba in July 1918 and recognized by Germany in November 1918

Grey Wolf

[Grey Wolf]

http://gsteinbe.intrasun.tcnj.edu/ro...es/finland.htm

Wolfgang Moritz, Prince of Hesse (1896- ). Potential claimant to the throne of Finland upon the succession of his father, Prince Friedrich Karl, to the title of Landgrave of Hesse-Cassel in 1925 (according to his father’s order of 1918 that Finland would always pass to the second son of the Landgrave of Hesse-Cassel to avoid the union of the two titles).

I realise I am linking the WW2 pages but the info on them from WW1 is what I am focusing on, and for Finland here it provides the explanation of what would have happened to have kept it separate from Hesse-Cassel

Grey Wolf

[Kabraloth]

Realistic would be a scenario where this peace of Brest-Litovsk does not even come up, because Trotsky realizes that Germany is not going away when the post-Tsarist Russia ignores it.
The argument of his was that Germany did not wage war with the USSR, but with Tsarist Russia; as there was no war, why should there be peace?

If Trotsky decides to swallow the frog and accepts the first peace offer, only Poland and Lithuania will become independant (Lithuania will likely be smaller, maybe as small as OTL's) and that is that.

(Yay, thread derailment!)

[Grey Wolf]

Ukraine was set up under Hetman Skoropadsky, tho' Archduke Wilhelm of (Habsburg) Teschen had hoped for the crown at one stage

His father was the man in line for the Polish crown, Archduke Stefan if my mind remembers these things correctly. Things had gone a bit screwy with Poland, tho', due in part IIRC to the Polish nationalists not being as keen to fight in Central Powers colours as they had been supposed to. IIRC again by 1918 there were a couple of rival governments in CP-occupied Poland, each with different remits. The Kingdom HAD been officially proclaimed, but without a king been announced. I remember that bit clearly...

Georgia I don't know what the plans were ? Apparently not a monarchy, tho' the idea of setting up an independent REPUBLIC seems a bit odd for the Central Powers who went to great lengths to find kings for places like Finland and Lithuania

Grey Wolf

[Sertak]

The only realistic scenario of Central Powers Victory should be based on Germany winning the Marna operation in 1914 and prevailing over France in several weeks. That is the only realistic condition for the Centrals to win.

[Grey Wolf]

Well...


732457895974

[Grey Wolf]

I was hoping to use real details of what was intended to come up with a real post-war map of what the East was intended to look at, that was all

Grey Wolf

[iocane]

http://www.firstworldwar.com/weaponry/tanks.htm
"By the time the war drew to a close the British, the first to use them, had produced some 2,636 tanks. The French produced rather more, 3,870. The Germans, never convinced of its merits, and despite their record for technological innovation, produced just 20."
Germany builds more tank and starts before the war even begins. They then use tanks and tunneling against trench warfare. The French and British can do the whole charge against the machine gun suicide charge. Germany moderates its submarine warfare campaign, no unrestrictive warfare. No sinking Lusantania. It also does not try to turn Mexico against the USA (which didn't work wanyway). So no United States in the war. Also Germany gets better intelligence on British operations. So they don't end up sinking the ship that has the head of the British army on board. Best to keep people who don't know what they are doing alive (when there on the other side). Keeps them from being replaced by someone with a brain.

[Damar1]

Yes a more successful Schlieffen Plan could have helped Germany.

Also, the CP could have found a way to get Italy to honor its previous alliance to A-H and Germany--or at least keep it neutral (past 1915 anyway). W/o an Italian Front, A-H can focus more on the Balkans and Russia, and maybe not collapse as quickly. Things would get easier for Germany too, come to think of it--they can also concentrate their forces elsewhere, and not have to help out A-H there as in OTL.

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

Originally Posted by Grey Wolf

I was hoping to use real details of what was intended to come up with a real post-war map of what the East was intended to look at, that was all

Grey Wolf

With regard to Georgia, I don't think it had really been worked out. Working from memory, the Germans rushed a small force there to prevent the Ottomans from occupying the country, and the two powers were starting to really fall out over the disposition of the Caucasus. Germany had been very keen to control the Baku oil, but the Ottomans got to it first. This would all depend upon when and how the CP won... if early on, the Caucasus would likely be largely shaped by the Germans; if later, the Ottomans will have to be taken into consideration.

[Grimm Reaper]

What if the Germans move entirely onto the defensive in the West and all of the manpower squandered at Ypres and Verdun is used elsewhere?

By mid 1915 Serbia and Montenegro are crushed, northern Greece occupied and the Army of the Orient destroyed or forced to flee, and German sends a few units of specialists with top equipment to aid the Ottomans against the British, resulting in the British desperately trying to hold in the central Sinai?

The stunning December 1915 offensive sunders the Italian line and only the frantic arrival of Anglo-French divisions prevents Italy from collapsing entirely, and the entire northeast including Venice is lost.

Falkenhayn's masterstroke, however, would be the spring 1916 offensive which forced the Tsar to the negotiating table and which brought a reluctant Romania into the Central Powers, in return for Bessarabian spoils.

In this event, with Russia forced out 6-9 months earlier, the Balkans entirely under German control, Italy much weaker, and US entry(if it happens) still nearly a year in the future, could Germany win the day?

For that matter, would this be plausible?

[luakel]

Grimm, the main problem I see with that scenario is even the Allies should be able to see that there are better areas to use their manpower against, most notably the places they're losing in. Then again, given their brilliant plans in OTL...

[Riain]

The CP could have won the long war, if not comfortably than convincingly. Does anyone want me to slap up a TL with minimum changes which sees the CP win WW1 easily enough? It will have all the early combattants involved from the start and only human decisions will differ. And the Schleiffen plan will still fail.

[Wendell]

The descendants of its historical pre-Tsarist hereditary rulers lived in Italy IIRC, and may have had ties to the House of Savoy.

That said, might the Central Powers win if Italy goes their way in the war?

[Johnnyreb]

Before 1914, the UK enters into a secret treaty with germany over such matters as the Navies and spheres of influence in Europe. As a result the UK does not enter the War.

So we don't get any of these bloody poets.

[Nick Sumner]

Originally Posted by Riain

The CP could have won the long war, if not comfortably than convincingly. Does anyone want me to slap up a TL with minimum changes which sees the CP win WW1 easily enough? It will have all the early combattants involved from the start and only human decisions will differ. And the Schleiffen plan will still fail.

Can't agree here, the only realistic CP victory scenarios are short war ones. One reason - Blockade, its fatal to industrial societies

[Dean_the_Young]

Originally Posted by Nick Sumner

Can't agree here, the only realistic CP victory scenarios are short war ones. One reason - Blockade, its fatal to industrial societies

Correction: Blockade is fatal to foreign-trade reliant industrial societies who don't have strategic materials. Nations with their own resources can shrug it off.

Though the economy was crippled, the what was really hurting the Germans was a lack of food supplies, not a lack of bullets.

[Shadow Knight]

Originally Posted by Dean_the_Young

Correction: Blockade is fatal to foreign-trade reliant industrial societies who don't have strategic materials. Nations with their own resources can shrug it off.

Though the economy was crippled, the what was really hurting the Germans was a lack of food supplies, not a lack of bullets.

That last part is only partially true. Had Germany not captured the large ammonium-nitrate stocks in Antwerp which gave them time to build up their synthetic plants they would have run out of bullets due to the the blockade.

[Wendell]

Originally Posted by Shadow Knight

That last part is only partially true. Had Germany not captured the large ammonium-nitrate stocks in Antwerp which gave them time to build up their synthetic plants they would have run out of bullets due to the the blockade.

Thus German crises could be solved on land, whereas Britain's would have to be fought on sea for a favorable outcome.

Where the Germans went wrong was in lifting their blockade.