An idea: A Mild Winter, a Late Sealion

[RCTFI]

POD: The winter of 1941 in Russia is the mildest on record.

Under this case, the German supply situation is much less dificult. Let's say Moscow falls. In the spring, Leningrad falls, with Stalingrad falling not much later.
After that, the Germans move on to the east, and do fairly well against the Russians, seizing key industrial areas including the oil fields.
So, with Russia on the run and its industrial areas occupied...
Germany begins plans for operations against England in 1943.
Under this situation, could the Nazis carry out a succesful Sealion-esq operation?
After all, they could build more planes, some proper transports etc.

Well? Could this work?

(And does this fall under the heading of things having to do with Successes of The Furry Animal That Must Not be Named?)

[Wozza]

The problem is that the longer they leave it the harder it gets. In 1940 they have the prospect of utter land supremacy if they can get enough troops ashore.

Such a prospect is lost by September, as the months/years tick by it gets harder, even with massive resources available.

The conquest of the Soviet Union was meant to provide the resources for a long maritime war against Britain and the US.

[Prinz Richard Eugen]

The British army has recovered from 1940. The RAF is stronger and has a large bomber force to attack German shipping. The RN is no smaller and American units have joined it (as well as army and naval units). The British are reading the German codes and would be aware of a cross-channel plan. With even a successful campaign against the USSR has a vast portion of the German forces (except the navy) still in Russia. There is no chance of a successful invasion of England at this time.

[Nicksplace27]

There has to be some way for a sucessful sealion? Right?

Two places that are impossible to fully invade and defeat: Russia and the UK.

[Larrikin]

The POD for it would have to be during Bismarck's time. It would need the German Empire to manage to take complete control of central Europe without triggering a war with France and/or Russia, and then take control of the Netherlands and Belgium without setting off the Brits. Eventually the German Empire could build a large enough naval force, and with the Low Country ports, get an army across to the UK. In the short term (IOW Hitler's time span) it's not doable.

[esl]

Again Sealion would have worked on time with just a little bit more prep especially to coincide with Summer 1940 as the optimum time. One years preperation even just in planning would have ensured success...and probably negated the need to invade as the UK would have collapsed opting for Empire over Europe.

Their is just not enough RN/RAF capability in mid to late 1940 to stop them...But by 1941 the UK have recovered and reequipped specifically to stop such an attack.

The longer the Germans wait the worse it gets for them, so just get on with it!. The only way Sealion can fail is if your data base/history , view things from the UK POV.


One of these days they will understand , but clearly not today.

[Larrikin]

Originally Posted by esl

Again Sealion would have worked on time with just a little bit more prep especially to coincide with Summer 1940 as the optimum time. One years preperation even just in planning would have ensured success...and probably negated the need to invade as the UK would have collapsed opting for Empire over Europe.

Their is just not enough RN/RAF capability in mid to late 1940 to stop them...But by 1941 the UK have recovered and reequipped specifically to stop such an attack.

The longer the Germans wait the worse it gets for them, so just get on with it!. The only way Sealion can fail is if your data base/history , view things from the UK POV.


One of these days they will understand , but clearly not today.

So, after successfully predicting in 1939 that you can over run France in 8 weeks at the start of summer 1940 you divert production capacity and transport to producing a fleet of shipping capable of carrying out a cross channel assualt in July-August 1940. However, now you no longer have the land capacity to enforce an 8 week defeat on France, so the invasion of England becomes moot.

Germany would have needed a massive historical change, almost certainly including no WWI to have developed the capacity to successfully invade England in 1949, or at any other time.

[Calgacus]

The German difficulties in Russia were not just a result of winter. There is still a very poor supply situation, and poor tactical decisions to factor in. I think the Germans would still lose...

[Grimm Reaper]

Since the Germans themselves did not anticipate a need or an opportunity for Sea Lion until France surrendered and the top Germans never imagined France going down as fast as OTL, esl needs to explain why the Germans are already planning for a major operation with not the slightest idea as to when it can be launched or what the overall situation will be if it is tried.

[esl]

Schenk reports the Germans had been practicing and studing amphibious warfare since 1926. Since 1930 naval maritime regulations were drawn up for conversion of existing merchant shipping to transport army units over seas. Since overt preperations for invasion of England were forbiden even Raeder got around them by suggesting the preperations were for landing a sizable army force behind enemy lines to help a front wide offensive.

Mean while Army Engineers had been practicing amphibious landings experimenting since 1926 with what ever they could lay their hands on. By 1935 this engineering effort expanded to include testing and designing a purpose designed landing craft which resulted in a contract for design tendered in 1937 and production orders in 1939/40. Actual events over took this.

During this time the naval study of merchant fleet usage had expanded to include merchant shipping to unloading mechanised forced to open beaches. By war time this had evoled to using pontoons to speed up off loading. A special designed 25 ton pontoon was designed to replace large life boats on davits to be employed to offload units& supplies directly to the beach. This was trialed in emergency unloading of a grounded merchant ship and was shown to work in rough seas. By spring 1940 when the requirement had been called on for invasion of Iceland this production was underway, however due to low priortiy and demand only 38 had been completed intime for Sealion OTL.

Admiral Raeder had even floated in 1939 how a high speed invasion operation could be conducted to land large number of German troops along the east coast of UK...yes even before France had been completely defeated! His condition was UK teetering on the brink of collapse, with their army defeated on the continent. Admiral Raeder was always very conservative in his estimations, most likely for political reasons. He had warned Hitler of the need for large navy since 1933 and been frustrated by Hitlers ignorance in naval matters. He'd be damned if he was going to be made scapegoat, which explains his unrealistic demand that Luftwaffe completely defeat RAF over England prior to Sealion. This also ran counter to blitzkrieg doctrine of Combind Arms similtaneous campaign not sequential in phases!

Curiously that pattern is consistant with Allied doctrine to this day and alot of the failure to analysis situations like sealion extend from the basic failure in assuming 'they would do it the way we would'. IE require total air and naval superiority BEFORE even begining to consider landings. That sounds like an area of further research?

This type of invasion was later practiced in Norway and the UK Admiralty conceded to Churchill, through this method up to 100,000 troops could be landed on UK ports and they were powerless to pervent it. All they could garantee was to ensure no supplies got through to said units. But given the Norway example that is hollow claim. That fact was not lost on Parliment.

"Invasion scare was on in Britain. During debate over British failure to stop occupation of Norway, a member of the House of Commons remarked that, though the Royal Navy appeared equal to saving Britain from Starvation by keeping some sea lanes open, it did not seem up to preventing Invasion: if the Navy could not cut off a landing in Norway, it was conceivable a German decent on Lincolnshire and the Wash could not be stopped either-Britons commenced to wonder uneasily about sea power against airpower and whether under Luftwafe wings Invasion of England had not become relatively easy. "

Ansel , "Hitler Confronts England", pp 62/63

By 1939 the army engineer efforts had evolved to include the mass conversion of thousands of river barges into landing barges. That is why when the orders were given the actual conversion of the landing barge took only 1 month....the plans had already been drawn up! Infact given the speed with which the built gun decks for just about every ship planned to be in Sealion , I suspect it too was studied prior to Sealion, since it proliferated so quickly.Using captured enemy ships suitably converted to further the naval war against the enemy, IE use the enemies power against him.

The only thing you need to tie all this together is an apriora recognition of the threat...IE political change mostly surrounding Hitlers views.