I've seen a couple of threads about some form of European co-operation happening earlier.
The problem is, I can't see this being very likely given France's position at the end of WW II, which means an earlier PoD. The France Fights on project gives lots of useful inspiration for this, although I diverge.
The one I choose is the proposal of Anglo-French Union. So:
16th June: Reynaurd, Prime Minister of France, confronts Petain over his defeatism. Petain claims he mas majority support in Parliament, but finds to his horror he does not. He is arrested for treason.
20th June: Churchill and Reynauld both announce the British-French Union to their respective populaces, and commit themselves to facing the Nazis to the end. New members are sworn into the British Privy Council (in absentia), and two new sub comittee are formed within it, a joint War committee to coordinate the War, and a second formed from the members of the newly formed French cabinet which is immediately delegated power over French domestic affairs. The British cabinet remains as a separate sub-comittee with responsibility for British domestic affairs.
A Bill is presented to the House, inviting the French members of Parliament to sit as members of the British House of Commons. It is understood that the British members of the Commons will form one standing committee, and the French another, with each only voting on affairs directly relevant to them.
The French government issues similar and parallel decrees.
Behind the scenes work begins to find a formula by which those members of the French government who are not French MPs can take seats in the British Parliament.
The Next Couple of Weeks: The French take a number of steps to slow the tide of retreat. Interned Spanish Republicans are released if they join the French Foreign Legion, and are granted immediate citizenship. Arabs in French North Africa are offered citizenship for themselves and their families is they volunteer. In coordination with the British, a big effort is made to evacuate French troops to Britain and North Africa, as well as the evacuated Belgian unit cadres and green troops. Machine tools and specialists are also evacuated, and factories destroyed as the Germans advance. French forces in North Africa begin attacking Italian positions.
July 1940: The Allies attack Sardinia and take it by the end of the month.
August 1940: The Allied carriers in the Med and aircraft based in Malta launch a devastating attack on Taranto, destroying the ships there and crippling the facilities. The Italian Dodecanese are captured by the Allies. The Battle of France ends with the fall of Marseilles, the Germans run it under a military occupation. Mussolini's position is very weak. The battle of Britain starts, as the Luftwafe is redeployed to attack Britain. The Germans are much weaker than in OTL, as the British had an extra couple of months to build up the RAF, and the Luftwafe had suffered significantly greater losses in France.
December 1940: The British and French disagree about strategy. Churchill wants to bribe the Greeks to get involved against the Italians, using the Dodecanese as a bribe. The French want to support Corsica and use it as a base for bombing raids. This turns into a test of the new Union. In the end, Churchill is forced to back down to maintain it, as unity is seen as essential. The final Italian forces in North Africa surrender.
January 1941: The Germans and Italians begin attacks on Malta. The Allies do not fall for this distraction, as Ultra intercepts indicate the true targets are Corsica and Sardinia. Despite the risk of the link to the Eastern Med and the bulk of the British Empire being cut, the buildup in the latter continues. Some in the British part of the Allied government are very unhappy with this concession to defending the remainder of Metropolitan France, as they are not in the ULTRA loop.
February 1941: Axis forces begin a massive attack on Corsica and Sardinia. The fighting is bitter and hard fought, with both sides pouring in continual reinforcements. The hard decision the British made to reduce Fighter Command's strength in England pays off, as the initial paratroop attack suffers massive casualties, attempting to land opposed by a force of radar directed modern planes with intelligence of when they were attacking.
April 1941: The Axis attempt to take Corsica and Sardinia ends. The German paratroop forces have been destroyed, and the Italians have suffered heavy casualties. The Allies have taken significant losses as well, particularly naval forces used to supply the islands. A significant amount of Axis air forces remain committed to suppressing the islands, whilst the Allies attempt to build up sufficient strength to begin major bombing campaigns.
May 1941: With Corsica and Sardinia apparently secure in Allied hands, the Italian position looks very weak. The British and French build on earlier discussions and bribe the Greeks to enter the war on the Allied side, attacking Italian forces in Albania, which had been significantly weakened in fear of Allied landings in Italy. Supported by Commonwealth forces, they push the Italians back quickly. The Fascist Grand Council, with the support of the King, deposes Mussolini. He resists and is shot in the struggle. Ciano becomes Prime Minister of Italy. He opens secret negotiations with the Allies to exit the war. Hitler is furious, but with the Allies making very rapid gains in the Balkans - the Italians surrendering with very little of a fight and Yugoslavia leading towards a very pro-Allied status, he decides that securing his oil supply is most important.
June 1941: Italy agrees an armistice with the Allies. It surrenders Albania and the Dodecanese to the Greeks, and whilst retaining nominal sovereignty over Sardinia and Tunisia, these remain Allied occupied. In return, Italy is allowed to become neutral. In response, the Germans occupy several of the strategic Alpine passes and the South Tyrol, but hold off declaring war. Instead, the Germans issue an ultimatum to Yugoslavia, to essentially become an Axis puppet, which is refused.
July 1941: German forces attack Yugoslavia. Allied forces move to counter them. Yugoslavia joins the Allies. This begins a grinding retreat for the Allies as they are forced back by superior German forces. Many important lessons are learned, and a truly unified Franco-British military command finally finds its feet over the course of this campaign.
November 1941: Japanese forces attack the Americans at Pearl and the Philippennes, and the Franco-British in Indo-China and Hong Kong. Germany declares war on the US. The American Pacific fleet is crippled. The British implement Operation Matador, and invade Siam. The Netherlands government in exile merges its military into Franco-British command
December 1941: The Japanese invade Malaya.
January 1942: Allied forces in the Balkans are driven back to the Peloponnese peninsula, but are reinforced by newly arrived American units. Indo-china falls to the Japanese, but preparations are made to continue a guerilla struggle. The French promise the Indo-chinese Nationalists substantial concessions post-war to persuade them to fight the Japanese.
March 1942: Japanese forces in Malaya are defeated, Siam surrenders to the Allies. Organised resistance ends in the Phillippennes. Japanese forces are heavily engaged in Indonesia, against Commonwealth and Franco-British forces.
April 1942: Operation Barbarossa is launched, a year late. With the Allies penned in the Peleponnese, and a year of quiet from Italy, Hitler decides to knock out Russia before moping up the Allies and Italians. Negotiations begin over aiding the Russians. The French part of the Franco-British government remembers Stalin's congratulatory telegram to Hitler on the Fall of Paris all too well, and with Franco-British and American forces already heavily engaged in combat operations against the Axis in Greece and the Far East, enthusiasm to divert resources from their own soldiers to the communists is limited. It is a greed that a cash and carry basis should be used to sell aid, channelled though the Bosphorus.
June 1942: The Japanese are expelled from Indonesia and Papua. By this point the Japanese are running very short of fuel, which is severely limiting their operations.
August 1942: Operation Barbarossa bogs down, not even having reached Lenningrad.
October 1942: The Franco-British move back into Indochina in force. The American lend-lease to the Chinese Nationalists steps into high gear. With a Europe first policy agreed, it is seen as best to supply the Chinese to fight the Japanese on the ground, rather than using US or European forces, from now on. With the Med virtually an Allied lake, the exception to this is naval, with virtually all of the Allies' submarines deployed against the Japanese.
March 1943: The Germans launch a massive spring offensive against the Soviets, which takes significant ground, but at terrible cost.
May 1943: The Allies launch a cross channel invasion of France, attacking the Pas du Calais. The beaches are scarcely defended, and Calais is captured from inland. The port facilities are captured substantially intact, thanks to the sacrifice of a very large number of French resistance fighters.
June 1943: The German offensive in the East is stopped cold. From here on they are steadily driven back. The Americans retake the Phillipennes.
July 1943: Against the advice of the Americans, the Franco-British persuade the Italians to declare war on Germany. With substantial Allied support, the Italians push the Germans out of the South Tyrol (occupied since the Italians exited the war), but find it difficult to advance any further into Austria. At the same time, Allied forces, primarily Indian and Greek launch an attack which pushes the German forces out of Greece. The Italians do significantly better in the south of France, where they act in support of a landing from Corsica.
August 1943: Paris is liberated by French elements of the Franco-British Combined Army.
September 1943: The Allies take Antwerp.
November 1943: The Germans are driven out of Russian territory. The Allies enter Germany from France. Allied forces in the Balkans push the Germans back in Yugoslavia. Bulgaria surrenders to the Western Allies, and the Germans are unable to effectively respond.
January 1944: Italian and Allied forces break through the German defences into Austria. Frankfurt falls to the Western Allies
February 1944: German forces withdraw from Yugoslavia back into Hungary. Russian forces reach the pre-Barbarossa borders of Belarus.
March 1944: Vienna falls to the Western Allies.
April 1944: German forces in Hungary surrender to the Western Allies. Romania surrenders to Russian forces.
May 1944: Prague falls to the Western Allies and Warsaw falls to the Russians. With the Allies advancing towards Berlin, Hitler is assassinated, and after a blood bath at the top, the Germans offer a conditional surrender. The Western Allies demand that it is unconditional. The Germans accept. The USSR declares war on Japan, and attacks into Manchuko, the last remaining Japanese possession in China.. It is obvious that the post war positioning has begun.
The war in Europe is over. The Western allies control all of Europe save Poland, Romania, and Germany east of Berlin, and the eastern part of Czechoslovakia.
July 1944: Manchuko falls to the USSR, and Soviet forces move on into Korea. Squabbling over the post war settlement continues.
September 1944: Japan offers surrender to the Allies conditional on the preservation of the Emperor and the aristocracy. The Allies disagree on whether to accept the offer. No one wants the massive casualties that an invasion could bring, and the Franco-British don't want the Soviets too involved. An ill Roosevelt declines to stand for a second term, nominating Omar Bradley, who had by the end of the war, been in command of the American forces in Central Europe, and has been very favourably received by the media.
October 1944: The last Japanese forces in Korea surrender to the Soviets.
November 1944: Bradley wins the US election on the Democratic ticket, with John D. Rockefeller as his Vice President, promising a non partisan Presidency to take America forwards from the war..
December 1944: At the request of the Franco-British, and of the President elect, Roosevelt agrees to a peace plan with Japan. Although publicly unconditional, back channel assurances are given that the Emperor and aristocracy will not be abolished. Stalin initially refuses to accept this, and invades Hokkaido. After a couple of tense weeks, a Soviet Hokkaido is acknowledged, and VJ day is announced.
In the Far East the Soviets hold Manchuria, Korea, and Hokkaido, whilst the Western Allies occupy the remainder of Japan. The Chinese Nationalists hold the bulk of the remainder of China. Malaya is in British hands, the NEI Dutch, and the French are back in Indochina, although they have made substantial concessions to the nationalists. In Europe, the Soviets hold Finland, Poland and Romania, Slovakia, and Germany east of Berlin. The Italians, as somewhat hesitant Allies, have a small, almost symbolic occupation zone in southern Bavaria, but have managed to take the Austrian Tyrol.
World War II is over. The Cold War is just beginning. As tension ratchets up in Europe, its first flowering will be in the Chinese Civil War.
January 1945: With the war in Europe over, the majority believed that the Franco-British Union had run its course, and so, in simultaneous ceremonies in London and Paris, the Parliaments and governments of both course resigned their membership in the other, and passed law recognising the other as an independent nation. Several of the institutions of the union, were, however, retained, foremost amongst them the Franco-British Combined Command, and the Franco-British Joint Planning Board. This was mainly due to the rising tension with the Soviet Union. It was not felt sensible to downgrade the their capability to oppose a Russian move west. Norway, Belgium, and the Netherlands were invited to remain a part of this join command structure, and they accepted, and rebuilt their forces to fit into its structures. New elections are held in both Britain and France.
February 1945: The Conservative lead National government wins the British elections, defeating the Labour party by 22 seats. Unlike in OT mainly because Britain suffered far less in the war, thanks to a much easier Battle of Britain and Battle of the Atlantic. Rationing was far less severe, and, most importantly, far less homes were destroyed, neutralising Labour's single biggest vote winner. In France the elections are very different to OTL. With the country under military occupation, the centre right was not discredited as collaborators. Instead, the Communists, who cooperated with the military occupation for nearly two thirds of the war, are tarred with that brush. Reynaud's Alliance Démocratique wins a surprising majority of seats in the election, with the Socialist group the major opposition party. The communists only win 15% of the seats, and the minor parties less than 5%. This is partially due to the economic support the centre parties receive from outside, as well as their dominance of the media.
June 1945: The Treaty of London is signed, forming the WEDO (Western European Defence Organisation), codifying the old Franco-British Combined Command into a permanent institution, based in London. It consists of Britain, France, Belgium, Luxembourg, Norway, and the Netherlands. Other European powers, also fearing the Soviets, express interest.
1946: As a result of disputed elections, Poland becomes a Communist state, followed shortly afterwards by Romania. With the people of Europe hungry and cold, and support for the Communists growing, the Americans launch the ERP, a plan to feed and rebuild Europe. The British and French persuade Bradley to make a greater proportion of the aid direct cash infusions, as they argue anything other would take too long to take effect. Stalin refuses this aid, and directs Poland and Romania to do likewise. Even with US aid, the Western Powers fear the rise of Communism, and plan to contain it. The old Franco-British Joint Planning board returns to importance as it is used as a forum to plan economic cooperation to that end – incorporating planning in the French and British occupation zones. Towards the end of the year the Americans detonate the fist atomic bomb.
1947: The Italians sign up to the ERP, and agree the price in terms of elections and the like. In Yugolslavia, the conflict between the Communists and the Royalists, which has been simmering along at the level of assassination and intimidation, erupts into open civil war. The French and British move forces in to help support the Royalists. Stalin, lacking atomic weaponry, has no choice but to accept Western intervention. With the British over stretched and worried about communism,Churchill is forced to choose between opposing Communism in Europe or attempting to maintain the Raj. With ill grace, Churchill ended his opposition to a Royal Commission on the Independence of India, which proposes a staged withdrawal and the retention of Burma in the short term. The example of Indochina, where the French have managed to maintain working relations with the nationalists despite the Japanese occupation is cited.
1948: Attempts at reconciling the Chinese Nationalists and Communists break down and open warfare breaks out between the Soviet backed Communists and American backed Nationalists. In the same year, West Germany and East Germany are declared as separate states, as it becomes clear that relations between the former Allies have completely collapsed. East Germany is very small, consisting of that portion of Brandenburg east of Berlin and Pomerania, as Silesia and East Prussia has been ceded to Poland, and the Western Allies and Italy occupy the rest of the country. The capital of West Germany is established at Frankfurt, and that of East Germany in Koslin.
1949: With the ERP and coordinated economic leading to an economic recovery, the British government calls an election. Churchill announces that he will not be the new Prime Minister (privately disgruntled by the Indian Question), he endorses Eden as his successor. The National Party (Conservatives + National Liberals) wins with a slightly increased majority.
1950: Reynaud's Alliance Démocratique party wins the French elections again. There is a substantial Soviet military build up in Poland and Romania. The European nations begin talks on removing the Western limit of WEDO.
1951: The Raj ends, India becomes independent as one state comprising virtually the entire subcontinent. The Treaty of Paris formalises the Franco-British Joint Planning board as the European Reconstruction and Development Council (ERDC) to be based in Paris. Austria, the Czeck Republic, Greece, Hungary, and Yugoslavia join the newly named European Defence Organisation (EDO). German units are raised for the first time and an integrated directly into the EDO Combined command structure. West Germany is not granted membership, and does not have the standard oversight board and ultimate veto over use of their troops that the true members enjoy. As from the start, one of the major roles of the Combined Command is to mange consolidated procurement across the membership.
1953: The French grant Indochina self rule, although they retain military bases in the country and control over foreign policy. Labour defeats the National Party in the British general elections, although they have had to renounce many of their policies on nationalisation to do so,
1954: Stalin dies. Hard line communists take control of the Kremlin. Relations with the West stay extremely frosty.
1955: With French and British aid, the Dutch finally manage to suppress the remnants of the Indonesian independence movement,who had worked with the Japanese during their failed attempt to take the region. The ERDC is renamed the European Economic Organisation (EEO), and expands so that it includes: Austria, Belgium, the Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Great Britain, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, and West Germany. Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy and Yugoslavia join as associates. All of these formed a single free trade area, a common market with no tariffs. The core members went further, with a program of economic co-operation and mutual support. In general, the associate counties wanted to be full members, but were considered too poor. Despite this, they still received significant support from the core members, as well as from the United States. As there is nearly complete overlap between the EDO and the EEO, they come to be nearly synonymous. It is at these meetings that the series of mergers and joint ventures which resulted in the modern giants of the European defence industry being formed, to meet the needs of a common military requiring unified procurement, something the EDO had been encouraging for the previous decade, in its various forms.
Thanks to the various mutual trade treaties, this trade block included low tariffs on goods from the British Empire and Commonwealth, the French Union, and the NEI, forming the largest trade block in th world.
How about that?
I have a proto-EU by 1955. Comments, critiscms, suggestions for the future direction or filling in detail, all happily received.
The problem is, I can't see this being very likely given France's position at the end of WW II, which means an earlier PoD. The France Fights on project gives lots of useful inspiration for this, although I diverge.
The one I choose is the proposal of Anglo-French Union. So:
16th June: Reynaurd, Prime Minister of France, confronts Petain over his defeatism. Petain claims he mas majority support in Parliament, but finds to his horror he does not. He is arrested for treason.
20th June: Churchill and Reynauld both announce the British-French Union to their respective populaces, and commit themselves to facing the Nazis to the end. New members are sworn into the British Privy Council (in absentia), and two new sub comittee are formed within it, a joint War committee to coordinate the War, and a second formed from the members of the newly formed French cabinet which is immediately delegated power over French domestic affairs. The British cabinet remains as a separate sub-comittee with responsibility for British domestic affairs.
A Bill is presented to the House, inviting the French members of Parliament to sit as members of the British House of Commons. It is understood that the British members of the Commons will form one standing committee, and the French another, with each only voting on affairs directly relevant to them.
The French government issues similar and parallel decrees.
Behind the scenes work begins to find a formula by which those members of the French government who are not French MPs can take seats in the British Parliament.
The Next Couple of Weeks: The French take a number of steps to slow the tide of retreat. Interned Spanish Republicans are released if they join the French Foreign Legion, and are granted immediate citizenship. Arabs in French North Africa are offered citizenship for themselves and their families is they volunteer. In coordination with the British, a big effort is made to evacuate French troops to Britain and North Africa, as well as the evacuated Belgian unit cadres and green troops. Machine tools and specialists are also evacuated, and factories destroyed as the Germans advance. French forces in North Africa begin attacking Italian positions.
July 1940: The Allies attack Sardinia and take it by the end of the month.
August 1940: The Allied carriers in the Med and aircraft based in Malta launch a devastating attack on Taranto, destroying the ships there and crippling the facilities. The Italian Dodecanese are captured by the Allies. The Battle of France ends with the fall of Marseilles, the Germans run it under a military occupation. Mussolini's position is very weak. The battle of Britain starts, as the Luftwafe is redeployed to attack Britain. The Germans are much weaker than in OTL, as the British had an extra couple of months to build up the RAF, and the Luftwafe had suffered significantly greater losses in France.
December 1940: The British and French disagree about strategy. Churchill wants to bribe the Greeks to get involved against the Italians, using the Dodecanese as a bribe. The French want to support Corsica and use it as a base for bombing raids. This turns into a test of the new Union. In the end, Churchill is forced to back down to maintain it, as unity is seen as essential. The final Italian forces in North Africa surrender.
January 1941: The Germans and Italians begin attacks on Malta. The Allies do not fall for this distraction, as Ultra intercepts indicate the true targets are Corsica and Sardinia. Despite the risk of the link to the Eastern Med and the bulk of the British Empire being cut, the buildup in the latter continues. Some in the British part of the Allied government are very unhappy with this concession to defending the remainder of Metropolitan France, as they are not in the ULTRA loop.
February 1941: Axis forces begin a massive attack on Corsica and Sardinia. The fighting is bitter and hard fought, with both sides pouring in continual reinforcements. The hard decision the British made to reduce Fighter Command's strength in England pays off, as the initial paratroop attack suffers massive casualties, attempting to land opposed by a force of radar directed modern planes with intelligence of when they were attacking.
April 1941: The Axis attempt to take Corsica and Sardinia ends. The German paratroop forces have been destroyed, and the Italians have suffered heavy casualties. The Allies have taken significant losses as well, particularly naval forces used to supply the islands. A significant amount of Axis air forces remain committed to suppressing the islands, whilst the Allies attempt to build up sufficient strength to begin major bombing campaigns.
May 1941: With Corsica and Sardinia apparently secure in Allied hands, the Italian position looks very weak. The British and French build on earlier discussions and bribe the Greeks to enter the war on the Allied side, attacking Italian forces in Albania, which had been significantly weakened in fear of Allied landings in Italy. Supported by Commonwealth forces, they push the Italians back quickly. The Fascist Grand Council, with the support of the King, deposes Mussolini. He resists and is shot in the struggle. Ciano becomes Prime Minister of Italy. He opens secret negotiations with the Allies to exit the war. Hitler is furious, but with the Allies making very rapid gains in the Balkans - the Italians surrendering with very little of a fight and Yugoslavia leading towards a very pro-Allied status, he decides that securing his oil supply is most important.
June 1941: Italy agrees an armistice with the Allies. It surrenders Albania and the Dodecanese to the Greeks, and whilst retaining nominal sovereignty over Sardinia and Tunisia, these remain Allied occupied. In return, Italy is allowed to become neutral. In response, the Germans occupy several of the strategic Alpine passes and the South Tyrol, but hold off declaring war. Instead, the Germans issue an ultimatum to Yugoslavia, to essentially become an Axis puppet, which is refused.
July 1941: German forces attack Yugoslavia. Allied forces move to counter them. Yugoslavia joins the Allies. This begins a grinding retreat for the Allies as they are forced back by superior German forces. Many important lessons are learned, and a truly unified Franco-British military command finally finds its feet over the course of this campaign.
November 1941: Japanese forces attack the Americans at Pearl and the Philippennes, and the Franco-British in Indo-China and Hong Kong. Germany declares war on the US. The American Pacific fleet is crippled. The British implement Operation Matador, and invade Siam. The Netherlands government in exile merges its military into Franco-British command
December 1941: The Japanese invade Malaya.
January 1942: Allied forces in the Balkans are driven back to the Peloponnese peninsula, but are reinforced by newly arrived American units. Indo-china falls to the Japanese, but preparations are made to continue a guerilla struggle. The French promise the Indo-chinese Nationalists substantial concessions post-war to persuade them to fight the Japanese.
March 1942: Japanese forces in Malaya are defeated, Siam surrenders to the Allies. Organised resistance ends in the Phillippennes. Japanese forces are heavily engaged in Indonesia, against Commonwealth and Franco-British forces.
April 1942: Operation Barbarossa is launched, a year late. With the Allies penned in the Peleponnese, and a year of quiet from Italy, Hitler decides to knock out Russia before moping up the Allies and Italians. Negotiations begin over aiding the Russians. The French part of the Franco-British government remembers Stalin's congratulatory telegram to Hitler on the Fall of Paris all too well, and with Franco-British and American forces already heavily engaged in combat operations against the Axis in Greece and the Far East, enthusiasm to divert resources from their own soldiers to the communists is limited. It is a greed that a cash and carry basis should be used to sell aid, channelled though the Bosphorus.
June 1942: The Japanese are expelled from Indonesia and Papua. By this point the Japanese are running very short of fuel, which is severely limiting their operations.
August 1942: Operation Barbarossa bogs down, not even having reached Lenningrad.
October 1942: The Franco-British move back into Indochina in force. The American lend-lease to the Chinese Nationalists steps into high gear. With a Europe first policy agreed, it is seen as best to supply the Chinese to fight the Japanese on the ground, rather than using US or European forces, from now on. With the Med virtually an Allied lake, the exception to this is naval, with virtually all of the Allies' submarines deployed against the Japanese.
March 1943: The Germans launch a massive spring offensive against the Soviets, which takes significant ground, but at terrible cost.
May 1943: The Allies launch a cross channel invasion of France, attacking the Pas du Calais. The beaches are scarcely defended, and Calais is captured from inland. The port facilities are captured substantially intact, thanks to the sacrifice of a very large number of French resistance fighters.
June 1943: The German offensive in the East is stopped cold. From here on they are steadily driven back. The Americans retake the Phillipennes.
July 1943: Against the advice of the Americans, the Franco-British persuade the Italians to declare war on Germany. With substantial Allied support, the Italians push the Germans out of the South Tyrol (occupied since the Italians exited the war), but find it difficult to advance any further into Austria. At the same time, Allied forces, primarily Indian and Greek launch an attack which pushes the German forces out of Greece. The Italians do significantly better in the south of France, where they act in support of a landing from Corsica.
August 1943: Paris is liberated by French elements of the Franco-British Combined Army.
September 1943: The Allies take Antwerp.
November 1943: The Germans are driven out of Russian territory. The Allies enter Germany from France. Allied forces in the Balkans push the Germans back in Yugoslavia. Bulgaria surrenders to the Western Allies, and the Germans are unable to effectively respond.
January 1944: Italian and Allied forces break through the German defences into Austria. Frankfurt falls to the Western Allies
February 1944: German forces withdraw from Yugoslavia back into Hungary. Russian forces reach the pre-Barbarossa borders of Belarus.
March 1944: Vienna falls to the Western Allies.
April 1944: German forces in Hungary surrender to the Western Allies. Romania surrenders to Russian forces.
May 1944: Prague falls to the Western Allies and Warsaw falls to the Russians. With the Allies advancing towards Berlin, Hitler is assassinated, and after a blood bath at the top, the Germans offer a conditional surrender. The Western Allies demand that it is unconditional. The Germans accept. The USSR declares war on Japan, and attacks into Manchuko, the last remaining Japanese possession in China.. It is obvious that the post war positioning has begun.
The war in Europe is over. The Western allies control all of Europe save Poland, Romania, and Germany east of Berlin, and the eastern part of Czechoslovakia.
July 1944: Manchuko falls to the USSR, and Soviet forces move on into Korea. Squabbling over the post war settlement continues.
September 1944: Japan offers surrender to the Allies conditional on the preservation of the Emperor and the aristocracy. The Allies disagree on whether to accept the offer. No one wants the massive casualties that an invasion could bring, and the Franco-British don't want the Soviets too involved. An ill Roosevelt declines to stand for a second term, nominating Omar Bradley, who had by the end of the war, been in command of the American forces in Central Europe, and has been very favourably received by the media.
October 1944: The last Japanese forces in Korea surrender to the Soviets.
November 1944: Bradley wins the US election on the Democratic ticket, with John D. Rockefeller as his Vice President, promising a non partisan Presidency to take America forwards from the war..
December 1944: At the request of the Franco-British, and of the President elect, Roosevelt agrees to a peace plan with Japan. Although publicly unconditional, back channel assurances are given that the Emperor and aristocracy will not be abolished. Stalin initially refuses to accept this, and invades Hokkaido. After a couple of tense weeks, a Soviet Hokkaido is acknowledged, and VJ day is announced.
In the Far East the Soviets hold Manchuria, Korea, and Hokkaido, whilst the Western Allies occupy the remainder of Japan. The Chinese Nationalists hold the bulk of the remainder of China. Malaya is in British hands, the NEI Dutch, and the French are back in Indochina, although they have made substantial concessions to the nationalists. In Europe, the Soviets hold Finland, Poland and Romania, Slovakia, and Germany east of Berlin. The Italians, as somewhat hesitant Allies, have a small, almost symbolic occupation zone in southern Bavaria, but have managed to take the Austrian Tyrol.
World War II is over. The Cold War is just beginning. As tension ratchets up in Europe, its first flowering will be in the Chinese Civil War.
January 1945: With the war in Europe over, the majority believed that the Franco-British Union had run its course, and so, in simultaneous ceremonies in London and Paris, the Parliaments and governments of both course resigned their membership in the other, and passed law recognising the other as an independent nation. Several of the institutions of the union, were, however, retained, foremost amongst them the Franco-British Combined Command, and the Franco-British Joint Planning Board. This was mainly due to the rising tension with the Soviet Union. It was not felt sensible to downgrade the their capability to oppose a Russian move west. Norway, Belgium, and the Netherlands were invited to remain a part of this join command structure, and they accepted, and rebuilt their forces to fit into its structures. New elections are held in both Britain and France.
February 1945: The Conservative lead National government wins the British elections, defeating the Labour party by 22 seats. Unlike in OT mainly because Britain suffered far less in the war, thanks to a much easier Battle of Britain and Battle of the Atlantic. Rationing was far less severe, and, most importantly, far less homes were destroyed, neutralising Labour's single biggest vote winner. In France the elections are very different to OTL. With the country under military occupation, the centre right was not discredited as collaborators. Instead, the Communists, who cooperated with the military occupation for nearly two thirds of the war, are tarred with that brush. Reynaud's Alliance Démocratique wins a surprising majority of seats in the election, with the Socialist group the major opposition party. The communists only win 15% of the seats, and the minor parties less than 5%. This is partially due to the economic support the centre parties receive from outside, as well as their dominance of the media.
June 1945: The Treaty of London is signed, forming the WEDO (Western European Defence Organisation), codifying the old Franco-British Combined Command into a permanent institution, based in London. It consists of Britain, France, Belgium, Luxembourg, Norway, and the Netherlands. Other European powers, also fearing the Soviets, express interest.
1946: As a result of disputed elections, Poland becomes a Communist state, followed shortly afterwards by Romania. With the people of Europe hungry and cold, and support for the Communists growing, the Americans launch the ERP, a plan to feed and rebuild Europe. The British and French persuade Bradley to make a greater proportion of the aid direct cash infusions, as they argue anything other would take too long to take effect. Stalin refuses this aid, and directs Poland and Romania to do likewise. Even with US aid, the Western Powers fear the rise of Communism, and plan to contain it. The old Franco-British Joint Planning board returns to importance as it is used as a forum to plan economic cooperation to that end – incorporating planning in the French and British occupation zones. Towards the end of the year the Americans detonate the fist atomic bomb.
1947: The Italians sign up to the ERP, and agree the price in terms of elections and the like. In Yugolslavia, the conflict between the Communists and the Royalists, which has been simmering along at the level of assassination and intimidation, erupts into open civil war. The French and British move forces in to help support the Royalists. Stalin, lacking atomic weaponry, has no choice but to accept Western intervention. With the British over stretched and worried about communism,Churchill is forced to choose between opposing Communism in Europe or attempting to maintain the Raj. With ill grace, Churchill ended his opposition to a Royal Commission on the Independence of India, which proposes a staged withdrawal and the retention of Burma in the short term. The example of Indochina, where the French have managed to maintain working relations with the nationalists despite the Japanese occupation is cited.
1948: Attempts at reconciling the Chinese Nationalists and Communists break down and open warfare breaks out between the Soviet backed Communists and American backed Nationalists. In the same year, West Germany and East Germany are declared as separate states, as it becomes clear that relations between the former Allies have completely collapsed. East Germany is very small, consisting of that portion of Brandenburg east of Berlin and Pomerania, as Silesia and East Prussia has been ceded to Poland, and the Western Allies and Italy occupy the rest of the country. The capital of West Germany is established at Frankfurt, and that of East Germany in Koslin.
1949: With the ERP and coordinated economic leading to an economic recovery, the British government calls an election. Churchill announces that he will not be the new Prime Minister (privately disgruntled by the Indian Question), he endorses Eden as his successor. The National Party (Conservatives + National Liberals) wins with a slightly increased majority.
1950: Reynaud's Alliance Démocratique party wins the French elections again. There is a substantial Soviet military build up in Poland and Romania. The European nations begin talks on removing the Western limit of WEDO.
1951: The Raj ends, India becomes independent as one state comprising virtually the entire subcontinent. The Treaty of Paris formalises the Franco-British Joint Planning board as the European Reconstruction and Development Council (ERDC) to be based in Paris. Austria, the Czeck Republic, Greece, Hungary, and Yugoslavia join the newly named European Defence Organisation (EDO). German units are raised for the first time and an integrated directly into the EDO Combined command structure. West Germany is not granted membership, and does not have the standard oversight board and ultimate veto over use of their troops that the true members enjoy. As from the start, one of the major roles of the Combined Command is to mange consolidated procurement across the membership.
1953: The French grant Indochina self rule, although they retain military bases in the country and control over foreign policy. Labour defeats the National Party in the British general elections, although they have had to renounce many of their policies on nationalisation to do so,
1954: Stalin dies. Hard line communists take control of the Kremlin. Relations with the West stay extremely frosty.
1955: With French and British aid, the Dutch finally manage to suppress the remnants of the Indonesian independence movement,who had worked with the Japanese during their failed attempt to take the region. The ERDC is renamed the European Economic Organisation (EEO), and expands so that it includes: Austria, Belgium, the Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Great Britain, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, and West Germany. Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy and Yugoslavia join as associates. All of these formed a single free trade area, a common market with no tariffs. The core members went further, with a program of economic co-operation and mutual support. In general, the associate counties wanted to be full members, but were considered too poor. Despite this, they still received significant support from the core members, as well as from the United States. As there is nearly complete overlap between the EDO and the EEO, they come to be nearly synonymous. It is at these meetings that the series of mergers and joint ventures which resulted in the modern giants of the European defence industry being formed, to meet the needs of a common military requiring unified procurement, something the EDO had been encouraging for the previous decade, in its various forms.
Thanks to the various mutual trade treaties, this trade block included low tariffs on goods from the British Empire and Commonwealth, the French Union, and the NEI, forming the largest trade block in th world.
How about that?
I have a proto-EU by 1955. Comments, critiscms, suggestions for the future direction or filling in detail, all happily received.
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