1905 - Russia beats Japan
- Thread starter Aegyptos
- Start date
Stalker
Banned
Nothing good will happen from this. All right Bezobrazov will feel good but with such long communicaions and unability to react quickly, Russian Empire is only going to weaken itself in attempt of further expansion. Russia's defeat in RJW was a good lesson and unfortunately, Russia had no time to learn this lesson to the end.
Redbeard
Banned
The OTL defeat in the RJW seriously undermined the legitemacy and political power of the Zar, he never really recovered.
If the Russians win at Tsushima, they will have won the war, with all the positive consequences of that, but still have all the learning experiences of the land-war.
Regards
Steffen Redbeard
Bright day
How is the war won?
Is Russian prestige fully saved? Do Russian see the options for reforms? Do they use them?
1,0 Germany may not be willing to risk offensive for, but will be drawn to Britain, once somebody else gives Russians a bloddy nose a stage will be set for WWI with Germany and Russia allied.
1,1 Germany may not be willing to risk offensive for, but will be drawn to Britain, but the opportunity may never materilize. France and Vritain may eventually reach kind of deal anyway, once the integration of colonies moves urther, thus making it more costly to just come in and take over.
0,1 May be similar to OTL, if Germany believes, however errorneously that it can beat France and Russia on its own, I find it unlikely that it would seek equal partner. Russia may also enter a conslidation era, seeking to revaluate its position in freer political climate than OTL, possibly allowing for deal with UK.
How is the war won?
Is Russian prestige fully saved? Do Russian see the options for reforms? Do they use them?
1,0 Germany may not be willing to risk offensive for, but will be drawn to Britain, once somebody else gives Russians a bloddy nose a stage will be set for WWI with Germany and Russia allied.
1,1 Germany may not be willing to risk offensive for, but will be drawn to Britain, but the opportunity may never materilize. France and Vritain may eventually reach kind of deal anyway, once the integration of colonies moves urther, thus making it more costly to just come in and take over.
0,1 May be similar to OTL, if Germany believes, however errorneously that it can beat France and Russia on its own, I find it unlikely that it would seek equal partner. Russia may also enter a conslidation era, seeking to revaluate its position in freer political climate than OTL, possibly allowing for deal with UK.
Anaxagoras
Banned
It makes things more difficult for the British, who by this point had pretty much concluded that France was their key ally in Europe and Japan was their key ally Asia. Since the French and Russian were allied by this time, it would make for some interesting diplomatic dancing.
If Russia beats seriously Japan and annexes Manchuria and Korea instead of just driving the Japanese out, there would be many people fearing -and exagerating- the Russian threat in Europe. Germany will focus more on her army and not so many on her fleet. Perhaps in the following years is France, feeling secure with the Russian support, the one who tries to force a war to beat Germany, instead of the opposite. Meanwhile, Britain will fear also the Russian ascendance and will try to have a stronger influence over Persia, Afghanistan and Tibet in order to guarantee the security of India. When WWI breaks out, London claims that the Russian actions are a new example of Czarist expansionism and joins the Central Powers...
Stalker
Banned
The most probable development, if you ask me. But there's a tremrndous problem between the Grossdeutsche Reich and Великороссийская Империя yet to be settled - nationalistic Serbia, her territorial claims to Austro-Hungary. "Black Hand" and a young fool Gavrila Prinzip still are set on the pavement of Sarayevo waiting for Ferdinand. Russia cannot simply put aside Serbia and that's a serious obstacle on the way to alliance with Germany, and Russia is set towards the Straits, which is of a great concern to Austro-Hungary and Britain. Quite a complicated diplomatic knot!
Not Tsushima...
Russia winning at Tsushima is near ASB--but Russia winning the war isn't. The ships were too beat up from the voyage. Granted, near miracles do happen in time of war, adn it COULD happen--but I'd not bet on it.
Russia could have won earlier--or even a draw at sea would have sufficed, IMHO. If the Japanese and Russian fleetsw in the area were gone, then the Baltic Fleet would have been able to sail all the way to Vladivostok, and been refitted. Even worn ships in need of work are superior to no ships.
Russia winning at Tsushima is near ASB--but Russia winning the war isn't. The ships were too beat up from the voyage. Granted, near miracles do happen in time of war, adn it COULD happen--but I'd not bet on it.
Russia could have won earlier--or even a draw at sea would have sufficed, IMHO. If the Japanese and Russian fleetsw in the area were gone, then the Baltic Fleet would have been able to sail all the way to Vladivostok, and been refitted. Even worn ships in need of work are superior to no ships.
Stalker
Banned
Not quite. Even with Rozhestvensky at command, The 2nd Pacific Fleet had chances. Avoid overwetting of warheads of the shells, and who knows - 2/3 of Togo's Fleet might have been sunk.
Yes, naval battles in RJW were complete chain of unprecedented shortage of simple luck on Russian side. Death of Admiral Makarov, the most capable Russian commander in the Far East, and then in the battle of breakthrough of Port-Arthur Fleet (Battle in the Yellow Sea of 28 July 1904) the most improbable happened: the Japanese shell somehow managed to penetrate into the armoured the command post of the dreadnought "Tsesarevich" (Crown-prince) and killed the commander of the fleet, admiral Witgeft but even that didn't affect much the course of the battle to be lost by Togo when Her Capricious Majesty Fortune presented him another gift - the next shell struck the same place twice and killed the "Tsesarevich"'s commander, Kaperrang (I Rank Captain) Ivanov who took command of the fleet and deliberately kept the Rear-Admiral, knyaz Uhktomsky unaware of Witgeft's death not to confuse the officers and keep them from panic.
Now, is anybody here who still believes that Fortune is just a case from fairy-tale?
Grey Wolf
Donor
It is better for Russia to win WITHOUT TsuShima, because by then much of the country was already in revolution and the uncontested power of the Tsar already a myth. In addition, the heavy losses of ships and men in the war before this point would be best avoided, or if necessary lost in a more profitable way ! As New Hampshire Battleship Lover said, even if the Russian Pacific Squadron had been lost on a one-to-one basis against the Imperial Japanese Navy, then Rozhestvensky's reinforcements would have met nothing more than destroyers, torpedo boats (and probably a few early submarines thrown in) upon their arrival in the Far East and would have held the balance of power that way.
In my studies of Russian history they always seem to swing East then West then East then West etc. In many cases the First World War comes as a result of Russia's defeat in the Far East and their need to retain face whilst refocusing in the West. The Austrian annexation of Bosnia-Hercegovina came about because the Austrians saw an advantage in temporary Russian weakness, and the Russians screwed up their diplomacy.
If Russia focuses on the East, there is unlikely to be an Anglo-Rrussian Entente, or if there is it will be RESTRICTED to colonial matters, aiming to solve the situation in China for example, rather than growing to have any European focus.
With Russia victorious in the East, they will be less aggressive in the West, less fearful of losing power there also, and give their allies less chance to exploit their difficulties. Without Russian backing the Serbs will probably realise that they cannot get away with their adventurism - Russia's attitude before 1914 will probably show that.
Russia's naval build-up will continue to have a three-seas strategy, with the Pacific getting the newest and the best, by way of the Mediterranean squadron, with the Baltic used for working up and for older ships. The Black Sea remains a separate case
Some random thoughts there, sorry for the muddle
Grey Wolf
In my studies of Russian history they always seem to swing East then West then East then West etc. In many cases the First World War comes as a result of Russia's defeat in the Far East and their need to retain face whilst refocusing in the West. The Austrian annexation of Bosnia-Hercegovina came about because the Austrians saw an advantage in temporary Russian weakness, and the Russians screwed up their diplomacy.
If Russia focuses on the East, there is unlikely to be an Anglo-Rrussian Entente, or if there is it will be RESTRICTED to colonial matters, aiming to solve the situation in China for example, rather than growing to have any European focus.
With Russia victorious in the East, they will be less aggressive in the West, less fearful of losing power there also, and give their allies less chance to exploit their difficulties. Without Russian backing the Serbs will probably realise that they cannot get away with their adventurism - Russia's attitude before 1914 will probably show that.
Russia's naval build-up will continue to have a three-seas strategy, with the Pacific getting the newest and the best, by way of the Mediterranean squadron, with the Baltic used for working up and for older ships. The Black Sea remains a separate case
Some random thoughts there, sorry for the muddle
Grey Wolf
trajen777
Banned
I read a great book called Dreadnaught which talked about the whole naval race / proposed German-Brit alliance pre 1900 that almost came about. In fact the entire Archduke killing Euro panic think took on a life of its own that few wanted. The Brits were at the time actually doing a visit with there Navy to Germany. If Germany had cut back there naval build up / signed an alliance / not invaded Belgium Britain could have / would have stayed neutral. Under such a case Germany would have ended in an eastern strategy because they could not have hammered there way through the common border French fortresses (the French tried and ended with massive causalities). So Germany East takes Poland in 1914 perhaps some of the Baltic States and helps Austria not receive such massive causalities. Italy enters against France and does noting except for endless mountain warfare (Like vs. Austria at Isonso battles 1 -10 causing France and Italian causalities. Germany and France bleed each other at the border from 1914 -1915. In Russia in 1915 Germany – Austria – Turkey advances to seize the Ukraine and St Petersburg. Romania enters war vs. Russia and Russia is out of war in 1916. End game Britain not wanting a German dominated Euro mediates peace with France & German borders same or perhaps Germany gets rest of Lorraine. Russia is big loser with perhaps the Brest treaty minus something. Maybe Germany gets Poland – Southern Baltic States / Austral gets Serbia / Bessiberia / Romania gets Odessa? / Turkey gets some of Caucasus.
Well, I don't think that Britain would join the CP, but the chance of a neutral Britain rises.
Yet the CP win another useful ally: Japan. ITTL, Japan would have more to win from defeating Russia, which they might be planning since the defeat of 1905.
And then, Russian weaknesses might be covered another decade, thus reforms never took place and the world is surprised in 1914 by weakness of Russia against Germany.
All in all I think the chances of a CP-Win scenario rise.
It seems to me that this turn of events might cause Britain to withdraw from much of any involvement on the continent, not wanting to ally itself with the nation that beat Japan, and not wanting to get involved with its greatest naval rival. I'd suggest that it might drive Britain to seek much closer ties with the US (a proposal that would have found a favorable reception in the White House at the time, given TR's world view) and a corresponding formal declaration of neutrality with respect to the continent: that is, a sort of institutionalized policy of "let them stew in their own juices" while London focused on good relations with Washington, turning more and more attention to the western hemisphere.
sumwhereinCA
Banned
dont forget that a Japanese defeat by Russia would hurt the japanese yen as well as a sudden lack of faith in the emperor.
And could stamp out later Japanese adventurism beyond China and Korea.