Could Turkey win........

[dmz23]

The region south of the Caucasus mountains,between the Black sea and the Caspian sea had been disputed between Turkey and Russia since the 19th centuary.The Turkish decision to enter WW1 in october[1914]led,inevitably,to an attack on the caucasus at the beginning of winter.Turkish troops suffered more casualities to the cold rather than enemy action.However,they did have some success in capturing Koprukoy and pushing the russians back.
My question is if the turks had delayed their entry into WW1 to the spring of 1915,would it have made a difference to their caucasus campaign?If so,would turkish success prompt the creation of a pan-Islamic movement that Germany and Turkey hoped would undermine Britains hold on India?

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

Originally Posted by dmz23

The region south of the Caucasus mountains,between the Black sea and the Caspian sea had been disputed between Turkey and Russia since the 19th centuary.The Turkish decision to enter WW1 in october[1914]led,inevitably,to an attack on the caucasus at the beginning of winter.Turkish troops suffered more casualities to the cold rather than enemy action.However,they did have some success in capturing Koprukoy and pushing the russians back.
My question is if the turks had delayed their entry into WW1 to the spring of 1915,would it have made a difference to their caucasus campaign?If so,would turkish success prompt the creation of a pan-Islamic movement that Germany and Turkey hoped would undermine Britains hold on India?

It would have made a gigantic difference. The Ottoman army was still reorganizing after the Balkan Wars when they entered WWI, and didn't have a mobilization plan to use to concentrate against Russia, nor time to improvise one. Waiting until Spring would have allowed them to send five times the numbers of troops that they did historically; if you consider that the Sarakamish campaign probably failed by 10,000 troops, and that the Russians were facing some serious shortages in 1915, Ottoman entry in the Spring could have been devastating for Russia.

I'm not sure if this would make much difference in the long-run, as the Entente would still have won, but it would have made the Ottomans about three times as militarily capable, and probably won them much better terms in the peace settlement.

I don't think the British Empire could really be threatened by Ottoman success unless the Royal Navy suffered some severe reverses - but it could cause trouble for the Russians in Central Asia...

[esl]

Originally Posted by Abdul Hadi Pasha

It would have made a gigantic difference. The Ottoman army was still reorganizing after the Balkan Wars when they entered WWI, and didn't have a mobilization plan to use to concentrate against Russia, nor time to improvise one. Waiting until Spring would have allowed them to send five times the numbers of troops that they did historically; if you consider that the Sarakamish campaign probably failed by 10,000 troops, and that the Russians were facing some serious shortages in 1915, Ottoman entry in the Spring could have been devastating for Russia.

I'm not sure if this would make much difference in the long-run, as the Entente would still have won, but it would have made the Ottomans about three times as militarily capable, and probably won them much better terms in the peace settlement.

I don't think the British Empire could really be threatened by Ottoman success unless the Royal Navy suffered some severe reverses - but it could cause trouble for the Russians in Central Asia...

Interesting point, but if this is so why did they not launch a campaign later in the war when they were more ready...many an offensive was launched and relaunched and relaunched again in WW-I western front?

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

Originally Posted by esl

Interesting point, but if this is so why did they not launch a campaign later in the war when they were more ready...many an offensive was launched and relaunched and relaunched again in WW-I western front?

Because everyone believed the war would be short and wouldn't last long enough for a Spring campaign.

[Anaxagoras]

Originally Posted by Abdul Hadi Pasha

Because everyone believed the war would be short and wouldn't last long enough for a Spring campaign.

IIRC, Enver Pasha launched the offensive when he did largely because he was eager for a great victory to shore up his domestic political position. The action was against the advice of nearly all the generals, and Enver basically ignored logistics for the duration of the campaign. Because a POD would be to have someone other than Enver in charge.

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

Originally Posted by Anaxagoras

IIRC, Enver Pasha launched the offensive when he did largely because he was eager for a great victory to shore up his domestic political position. The action was against the advice of nearly all the generals, and Enver basically ignored logistics for the duration of the campaign. Because a POD would be to have someone other than Enver in charge.

You could also have Goeben fail to show up. That would probably delay or prevent Ottoman entry.

[Hapsburg]

Originally Posted by Anaxagoras

IIRC, Enver Pasha launched the offensive when he did largely because he was eager for a great victory to shore up his domestic political position. The action was against the advice of nearly all the generals, and Enver basically ignored logistics for the duration of the campaign. Because a POD would be to have someone other than Enver in charge.

Or just have Enver Pasha actually listen to the generals. I mean, wouldn't that be easier?