Challenge: A French "Falklands War" in the late twentieth century

Thande

Thande

Donor
What might be a situation that would fit the Falklands paradigm (i.e., small island possession a long way away, its own population likes being associated with the mother country, but there's a close neighbour which claims it) for France?

At first I thought of Kerguelen, but no-one lives there and who the heck's going to claim it? French Guiana isn't really that similar a situation. How about New Caledonia? Thoughts?
 

Fellatio Nelson

What about huge oil reserves in French Guinea - it's nearish to Ven. and has a coastline, so not entirely incredible, as well as a rather significant overseas asset - and a 'bad' Brazil/Venezuala/whoever, flush with economic success, asserts a claim over it? Perhaps they team up with other South American nations, promising a share of the cash.


Trouble is the French never really exported their people to these places, as we did: and, to be blunt, who'd get involved in such a risky war unless it was to aid one's "kith and kin" in overseas places. (Even Australians.)
 

Jason

VoCSe said:
Suriname claims a piece of French Guyana and the Comoros claim Mayotte.
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problem with those two is the weakness of their militaries, they couldn't really offer a creditable threat to even a small scale French expedition.
 

Hendryk

Banned
Thande said:
At first I thought of Kerguelen, but no-one lives there and who the heck's going to claim it? French Guiana isn't really that similar a situation. How about New Caledonia? Thoughts?
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New Caledonia might fit the bill, if we posit either an aggressively expansionist Indonesia or a dictatorial Australia--I don't think Vanuatu or Fiji would make a credible aggressor. Another possibility if you drop the island requirement is Djibouti. Then there's La Réunion, which might be claimed by some alternate Madagascar. Finally there's Guadeloupe and Martinique, which might attract the attention of either the Dominican Republic or, for a slightly more credible military threat, Venezuela.
 
Thande

Thande

Donor
Hendryk said:
New Caledonia might fit the bill, if we posit either an aggressively expansionist Indonesia or a dictatorial Australia--I don't think Vanuatu or Fiji would make a credible aggressor. Another possibility if you drop the island requirement is Djibouti. Then there's La Réunion, which might be claimed by some alternate Madagascar. Finally there's Guadeloupe and Martinique, which might attract the attention of either the Dominican Republic or, for a slightly more credible military threat, Venezuela.
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All good ideas.

I think the idea of Evil Indonesia ( (c) all timelines written by Australians ;) ) attempting to take New Caledonia is the one that most interests me.

I suppose in this case, Australia would be like Chile, i.e. helping France by looking threatening and tying up Indonesian military resources but without actually entering the war.
 

Jason

Possibly a more militant Mexico? could it get some ideas?


Hendryk said:
Finally there's Guadeloupe and Martinique, which might attract the attention of either the Dominican Republic or, for a slightly more credible military threat, Venezuela.
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Thande

Thande

Donor
Fellatio Nelson said:
Or Canada seizing St Pierre & Miquelon (sp.) off Newfoundland.
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That's an interesting one, but one has to speculate on what sort of Canadian regime would do that...

Maybe if Newfoundland had become separately independent as it nearly did OTL, and an economic recession leaded to a junta taking over?
 

Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy

Banned
Hendryk said:
Another possibility if you drop the island requirement is Djibouti.
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Djibouti works even after independence. There's still a French military presence there, so if they're attacked by the Somalis (seeking Greater Somalia), Ethiopians (wanting access to the sea after the loss of Eritrea) or Eritreans (for whatever reason, maybe they go Islamists) you'd have a war.
 

Hendryk

Banned
Thande said:
I think the idea of Evil Indonesia ( (c) all timelines written by Australians ;) ) attempting to take New Caledonia is the one that most interests me.
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You could get a further analogy with OTL considering that Indonesia got much of its military hardware from Britain, just as Argentina did from France. Did Britain export an Exocet-like missile in the 1980s?
 
Thande

Thande

Donor
Hendryk said:
You could get a further analogy with OTL considering that Indonesia got much of its military hardware from Britain, just as Argentina did from France. Did Britain export an Exocet-like missile in the 1980s?
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I'm looking on Wikipedia.

I think the Sea Eagle is probably the closest analogy, which we sold to India, Saudi Arabia and possibly Chile OTL.
 

Jason

Hendryk said:
You could get a further analogy with OTL considering that Indonesia got much of its military hardware from Britain, just as Argentina did from France. Did Britain export an Exocet-like missile in the 1980s?
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I could be wrong but I thought we didn't sell much to Indonesia until the 90s, wasn't a lot fo its military equipment Soviet in the 80s?:confused:
 

Wozza

Hendryk said:
You could get a further analogy with OTL considering that Indonesia got much of its military hardware from Britain, just as Argentina did from France. Did Britain export an Exocet-like missile in the 1980s?
Click to expand...

Only Sea Eagle. but you cannot destroy much with that. Some sort of Indonesian Harrier force would be interesting though. Buccaneers would also pose a credible air-sea threat.

Indonesia and Britain have never been that friendly though, and there are limits on what Britain is willing to export in fact for human rights reasons. A larger regional communist threat would solve the problem.
 

Jason

I suspect there was also the issue that Indonesia could be a threat to the Aussies, Malaysia and Brunei so we would be careful what we would sell them.

the more I think about it, I am sure that at some stage (60s-70s?) Indonesia got a lot of Soviet equipment, including some jet bombers of some sort. If they continued to do so, a modern-ish Soviet armed Indonesian military could be a challenge for the French in the mid 80s.

Wozza said:
Only Sea Eagle. but you cannot destroy much with that. Some sort of Indonesian Harrier force would be interesting though. Buccaneers would also pose a credible air-sea threat.

Indonesia and Britain have never been that friendly though, and there are limits on what Britain is willing to export in fact for human rights reasons. A larger regional communist threat would solve the problem.
Click to expand...
 

Fellatio Nelson

Hendryk said:
You could get a further analogy with OTL considering that Indonesia got much of its military hardware from Britain, just as Argentina did from France. Did Britain export an Exocet-like missile in the 1980s?
Click to expand...

Indonesia flirted with the USSR in the 1960s; perhaps have them re-open channels of communication and possess some older Soviet AShMs.

Anyhow, they received some ex-Dutch Leanders in the 1980s, which were/are armed with Harpoon - which outranges all but the latest Exocets - in addition to some old GP ex-British frigates.

However, the early MM38 and AM39 - doubtless what the Indonesians would have had if they operated Exocet - had largely been countered by 1982: when the Falklands erupted, an Anglo-American project, assisted by France, soon manufactured shipboard devices to (largely) counter them; the information also being shared with France, which would have led to their ships being rigged with the devices before setting off.

(A little known fact, the British helped fund the development of the Exocet missile after it had initially been proven as a viable weapon, because they wanted it for their own ships.)
 

Fellatio Nelson

Jason said:
the more I think about it, I am sure that at some stage (60s-70s?) Indonesia got a lot of Soviet equipment, including some jet bombers of some sort. If they continued to do so, a modern-ish Soviet armed Indonesian military could be a challenge for the French in the mid 80s.
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The two French carriers would be valuable; however, the Super Etendards weren't the best, merely a cheap platform for the AM39.

The Crusader aircraft they operated were 1950s vintage and would have had difficulty in dealing with modern fighter aircraft, especially those armed with beyond visual range AAMs. (And French AAMs of the day were generally less efficient than NATO ones, at least until new ones were introduced during the mid-late 1980s, so perhaps they would have conceded and bought the American
AIM9L Sidewinder before going.)

Their Breguet ASW aircraft would have provided some measure of AEW, if they didn't adapt the RN Sea King version to their own helos before going.
 

maverick

Banned
Funny ideas on the subject:

1. Britain loses interest in the Falklands and the French get them.
2. Brazil invades Guyana.
3. Cuba invades one of the french colonies in the area.
4. Canada invades St. Pierre and Miquelon, in a world in which Canada is evil:p
5. France invades the Channel islands in the aftermath of the successful army coup of 1958 "Operation Resurrection."
6. India invades the french cities in the Indian coast and France attacks.
7. Ethiopia invades Djibouti in the 1940s.
 

Jason

Ok, interesting. What were the French subs of the time like and did Indonesia have any? I think they might have had some ones from Russia at some stage bu not sure? :confused:

Ground forces could be interesting and the French route to get there might require them to go via South America (rather than sail through Indonesian waters to reach their islands)

Fellatio Nelson said:
The two French carriers would be valuable; however, the Super Etendards weren't the best, merely a cheap platform for the AM39.

The Crusader aircraft they operated were 1950s vintage and would have had difficulty in dealing with modern fighter aircraft, especially those armed with beyond visual range AAMs. (And French AAMs of the day were generally less efficient than NATO ones, at least until new ones were introduced during the mid-late 1980s, so perhaps they would have conceded and bought the American
AIM9L Sidewinder before going.)

Their Breguet ASW aircraft would have provided some measure of AEW, if they didn't adapt the RN Sea King version to their own helos before going.
Click to expand...
 
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