Persia Defeats The Arabs (scenario)

[Tetsu]

Alright. I know I posted this before in question form, but I've been doing a lot of research, and I think I have a (hopefully) plausible scenario.
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In 627, a war with Byzantium left the Sassanian Persian Empire in tatters. The Shah, Khosrau II, was excecuted after the Byzantines won the war. The climactic final battle at Nineveh broke the back of the Persian fighting power. In the ATL, this Byzantine victory is turned into a draw. The Byzantines cannot advance any further. Khosrau II is persuaded to make peace with Heraclius, the Byzantine Emperor, before serious harm befalls Persia.

He does so. The war is ended, and Khosrau II is not excecuted. In OTL, his death saw a long stream of short-lived pretenders and child kings ascend the throne and rapidly lose it, resulting in the fall of Persia to the Arabs. In the ATL, he lives to strengthen Persia again.

When Islam comes to pass and the Arabs attack Persia, they face a much stronger empire than they defeated in OTL. Eventually, with minor help from Byzantium, the Persian Empire defeats the Arabs. The Islamic Conquest is halted before it really begins.

This causes incredible butterflies. Many nations, such as the Visigothic kingdom in Iberia, that were destroyed in OTL by the Caliphate do not even come into contact with Islam.

Byzantium holds on to southern Italy, all of Anatolia, and eventually reconquers the Balkan land south of the Danube, and obviously survives much longer than in OTL. The Islamic Turks, their downfall in our world, have converted to Christianity instead, and had no drive to create an empire of their own. The Osmanli dynasty never exists.

Other areas are affected as well. The Empire of Vijayangara, a Hindu empire of southern India that was destroyed in OTL by Muslim caliphates, conquers all of the Indian subcontinent, and, having no Muslim enemy to focus on, begin to colonize surrounding areas, such as Sumatra. They become a great power. Many others affected by butterflies become great powers that were not, and some that were languish in isolation. In the 1700s, a Japanese Empire rules over the Pacific and holds Ming China under it's thumb.
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That's the basic scenario. Comments? Anybody interested in a TL on this?

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

Originally Posted by tetsu-katana

Alright. I know I posted this before in question form, but I've been doing a lot of research, and I think I have a (hopefully) plausible scenario.
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In 627, a war with Byzantium left the Sassanian Persian Empire in tatters. The Shah, Khosrau II, was excecuted after the Byzantines won the war. The climactic final battle at Nineveh broke the back of the Persian fighting power. In the ATL, this Byzantine victory is turned into a draw. The Byzantines cannot advance any further. Khosrau II is persuaded to make peace with Heraclius, the Byzantine Emperor, before serious harm befalls Persia.

He does so. The war is ended, and Khosrau II is not excecuted. In OTL, his death saw a long stream of short-lived pretenders and child kings ascend the throne and rapidly lose it, resulting in the fall of Persia to the Arabs. In the ATL, he lives to strengthen Persia again.

When Islam comes to pass and the Arabs attack Persia, they face a much stronger empire than they defeated in OTL. Eventually, with minor help from Byzantium, the Persian Empire defeats the Arabs. The Islamic Conquest is halted before it really begins.

This causes incredible butterflies. Many nations, such as the Visigothic kingdom in Iberia, that were destroyed in OTL by the Caliphate do not even come into contact with Islam.

Byzantium holds on to southern Italy, all of Anatolia, and eventually reconquers the Balkan land south of the Danube, and obviously survives much longer than in OTL. The Islamic Turks, their downfall in our world, have converted to Christianity instead, and had no drive to create an empire of their own. The Osmanli dynasty never exists.

Other areas are affected as well. The Empire of Vijayangara, a Hindu empire of southern India that was destroyed in OTL by Muslim caliphates, conquers all of the Indian subcontinent, and, having no Muslim enemy to focus on, begin to colonize surrounding areas, such as Sumatra. They become a great power. Many others affected by butterflies become great powers that were not, and some that were languish in isolation. In the 1700s, a Japanese Empire rules over the Pacific and holds Ming China under it's thumb.
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That's the basic scenario. Comments? Anybody interested in a TL on this?

Yes, this is a good one. It seems unlikely to me that the Turks would all convert to Christianity - it really depends on which Turks travelling where. Those taking a northerly route might very well become Christian, but those that went through the Persian sphere would probably become Zoroastrian.

Also, if the Caliphate does not conquer Persia, they will not enter into centuries of bruising warfare against the Khazars, who may also last longer, so the Turks could actually become Jews, which is strange but plausible - and most likely a very different Russia.

But don't count the Caliphate out even in this scenario - with Syria, Mesopotamia, and Egypt, they are still a 500 lb gorilla, and can still easily push across N. Africa.

[Xen]

Sub-sahara Africa would be an intresting choice to have them invade too. The Arabs build roads and unite the tribes under a common tongue and religion.

[Tetsu]

Originally Posted by Abdul Hadi Pasha

Yes, this is a good one. It seems unlikely to me that the Turks would all convert to Christianity - it really depends on which Turks travelling where. Those taking a northerly route might very well become Christian, but those that went through the Persian sphere would probably become Zoroastrian.

Also, if the Caliphate does not conquer Persia, they will not enter into centuries of bruising warfare against the Khazars, who may also last longer, so the Turks could actually become Jews, which is strange but plausible - and most likely a very different Russia.

But don't count the Caliphate out even in this scenario - with Syria, Mesopotamia, and Egypt, they are still a 500 lb gorilla, and can still easily push across N. Africa.

Damn. I had a long reply to this, but my Internet stopped working and I lost it. So to make a long post short, the Turks convert to different religions depending on where they are, I plan on having the Khazars survive, and Persia and Byzantium eventually beat back the Arabs into Arabia itself.

As for Xen, that's a good idea. Perhaps I'll have the Muslims flee to sub-Saharan Africa after Arabia is conquered by Persia.

[Xen]

If you have the Arabs defeated like that make it over centuries, perhaps they rebuild Babylon making it a military stronghold against their foes in the North. Once the Persians break through at the Battle of Babylon the Arabs lose much of the north but put up a lasting defensive for the Holy Cities.

The Persians use Baghdad and Babylon to control trade along the Tigris and Eurphrates Rivers. Babylon recaptures much of its old glory, perhaps even becoming the new capital of Persia

[LordKalvan]

You are possibly forgetting the largest butterfly: sea commerce effectively stopped for Europe, and Mediterranean became a barrier rather than a freeway, given the numbers of saracen pirates. In TTL, this would not happen: the increase in wealth and the easyness in spreading ideas and culture might lessen the effect of the Dark Ages.

[DominusNovus]

Khazars might not convert to Judaism this time around. One of the reasons they did (supposedly) was because Judaism was a common denominator of sorts between Islam and Christianity. With no extensive contact with the Muslims, they might convert to Christianity or Zoroastrianism, maybe. Judaism and Islam still remain possibilities, though I'd expect Islam to be more likely still.

[Yossarian]

European culture would evolve more slowly without the extended conflict with islam.

[LordKalvan]

Originally Posted by Yossarian

European culture would evolve more slowly without the extended conflict with islam.

It is the old quarrell: in OTL the conflict with islam destroyed the Visigoth kingdom in Spain, almost destroyed Byzantium and in general forced the population on the Mediterranean shores to migrate toward the interior. OTOH, the contacts with Islam were important to bring back the classics, which otherwise might have been lost.
A scenario of much lesser (and much more successful) conflict would have beneficial effects for sure, in particular for Italy, Provence and Spain.
The eastern empire would have been able to consolidate, and to recover Anatolia (and possibly Syria and Palestine). Lesser pressure on the south front would also mean better overall situation in the balkans and in Southern Italy.
TTL would have much greater continuity with the classical times, and possibly completely avoid the dark ages. Even the Vikings would have met stronger states (in particular in France), and they would have been more inclined to migrate toward Russia.
I would not know if this might have been a better world (define "better" ): for sure it would have been a very different one

[Xen]

Originally Posted by LordKalvan

It is the old quarrell: in OTL the conflict with islam destroyed the Visigoth kingdom in Spain, almost destroyed Byzantium

Almost? Come 1453 it did

[LordKalvan]

Originally Posted by Xen

Almost? Come 1453 it did

Sure, but I was referring to the first time that islam arrived under the walls of Costantinople. 700 something

[Tetsu]

I started working on part one of the timeline, and it should probably be done fairly soon, provided I don't have much school work this week. But hopefully I'll have it done in the next couple days.

[MerryPrankster]

The Khazars (or, to be more particular, the Khazar nobility) became Jews because being Christian meant falling under Byzantine influence and being Muslim meant falling under the influence of the Caliphate.

No Caliphate will make things interesting. I'd expect a good bit of Christian proselytizing (the common Khazars split up into Muslims, Christians, and Jews), but the Islamic element will be small to non-existent. They could easily become Jews, as the prominent Jew who persuaded the Khazar king could still exist in OTL.

I'm going to bring up my new topic of interest...the Nestorian Church of the East...again. They were essentially extirpated in Rome, but survived in Persia and Central Asia for quite awhile; in fact, there are still quite a few there, though in nowhere near the old numbers. Might they be influential among the Khazars? This also leads to my next point.

Keeping Persia strong means keeping the Muslims out, which means that the pre-Islamic religious diversity of Nestorian Christians, Buddhists, Manichees, and some other sects will remain in Central Asia. Leo Caesius knows a good bit about the Manicheans, and I think in TTL they'll have a strong role. The Nestorians will probably play a greater part as well.

We could also make (keep?) Bamayan a major Buddhist center; it was the site of two huge Buddhas the Taliban blew up a couple of years ago.

[Tetsu]

I think I'm going to keep the Khazars as Jews, and I'm going to try to make them last as long as possible. I'm considering eventually having them backed by Persia against Russia.

[Leo Caesius]

Central Asia was also home to untold numbers of Zoroastrians, or at least practitioners of some Iranian religion. All of the religions that are attested in Central Asia appeared to have a strong Iranian substrate influence. The Ossetians in Georgia, for example, are nominally Christian but their folk religion has a decidedly Iranian bent. The Nestorians also manifest obvious Iranian influences.

Reams of paper have been spent on describing the Iranian influences in Maitreya Buddhism, comparing the Buddha of the future to the Saoshyant, the third descendant of Zoroaster who will return in end of days to resurrect the bodies of the dead.

[Tetsu]

627- War has been raging between Rome and Persia for many, many years. The Roman Army, led by the emperor Heraclius, has reconquered all territory taken by the Persians- Egypt, Syria, Palestine- and is now one step away from entering Persia itself. His army meets the Persian Army at Nineveh, and a massive battle ensues. Heraclius is in personal command of the Roman Army, and the forces of Persia are headed by General Rhahzadh, and as many as 100,000 soldiers met each other in battle.
The battle was incredibly contested, and seemed to go on and on with neither side gaining a clear advantage. The battle fizzles out, and Roman Army is halted. The Persian Shah, Khosrau II, is persauded to put forth peace terms to Heraclius, before he can reinforce his army with more soldiers, break through the Persian garrison, and attack the Persian capital of Ctesiphon. Heraclius accepts the peace terms, albiet reluctantly. Persia will return Egypt, Syria, and Palestine to Rome. It will keep Mesopotamia. The war that had been raging since 571 is finally over.

628- Khosrau II begins to rebuild his military, with all the lessons of the last war learned. Much of Persia's army was destroyed at Nineveh the year before. He has no desire to pick a fight with Rome again anytime soon, but he considers a strong military to be a vital part of any empire. He also begins to fortify the capital at Ctesiphon, to further prevent a Roman seige of the city.

629- King Coltaire II of Frankia dies. His son, Dagobert I, takes power. Dagobert ascends to the throne in the united Frankish kingdom that his his father united in 613.

630- In January, Muhammad marches on Mecca with 10,000 men. He encounters almost no resistance. Once the city is captured, most of the Makkans converted to Islam, even though Muhhamad did not insist that they convert. He destroys the idols in the Kaaba and in various other, smaller shrines.

631- King Dagobert of Frankia sends three armies to attack Karantania, the first stable and independant Slavic kingdom, ruled by King Samo. The Frankish army attacks Samo's army at the castle Wogastisburg. The Frankish soldiers are repelled.

632- Muhammad dies. He is succeeded by Abu Bakr, who becomes the first Caliph, and the Successor of the Prophet. He has barely had time to ascend to the throne before he has to surpress revolts in the Hejaz and Nejd. He encounters formidable opposition, but he eventually conquers the rebellious tribes. The most severe struggle took place during the Battle of Akraba against Mosailima by General Khalid bin Walid.

634- The Muslims launch a largely successful expedition into Palestine. The Muslims encounter heavy resistance from Roman troops, and they in no way capture the region, as many consider it to be merely a large raid. Both Heraclius in Rome and Khosrau II in Persia take note of the Arabs as a large potential threat.
Also, the Caliph Abu Bakr dies. Before he died, he made it known that he wanted Omar to become his successor. After Bakr's death, Omar becomes Caliph of Islam.

635- Heraclius sends Roman troops to reinforce Palestine and Syria. In Northumbria, England, Saint Aidan founds Lindisfarne.
Also, Nestorian Christianity reaches China.

636- The Battle of Yarmuk erupts between the Muslims and the Roman Empire. The Muslims win a narrow victory and seize Palestine and southern Syria.
This disturbs Khosrau II. He sends most of the Persian military to reinforce the southern frontier of Persia, to defend it against possible Arab attack.

637- Muslim armies conquer Jerusalem. Also, Khosrau's preparedness pays off- an Arab army attack the Persians, erupting into the Battle of al-Qadisiyah, which results in a Persian victory, due in part to the tactics of General Rhahzadh. Heraclius takes note of this, and issues a secret proposal to Khosrau- that Persia and Rome fight put their differences behind them (for now), and fight together against their common enemy of Islam.

638- The Islamic calendar is introduced.

639- Dagobert I of Frankia dies. He is succeeded by his son, who ascends to the throne as Clovis I. Also, more raids on Persia are carried out by Muslim forces.

640- Muslim forces besiege Alexandria, in Roman Egypt. The seige is unsuccessful, as many Muslim soldiers are tied up fighting the Persians in Mesopotamia. Heraclius begins to reinforce North Africa. Also, King Suinthila of the Visigoths dies.

641- Emperor Heraclius of Rome dies. His son, Heraclonas, succeeds him. However, after a revolt that results in Heraclonas' death, his brother, Constantine III takes the throne as the single emperor.

642- Muslim forces again besiege Alexandria, and capture the city successfully, despite the extra Roman troops that the late Heraclius posted there. Despite this gain against the Romans, Khosrau II orders an offensive against the Arabs. It is largely successful, and a large Muslim army is destroyed.

643- Caliph Omar, for now, pulls his armies out of the fighting in Mesopotamia against the Persians, because much more is being lost than gained. He thinks that after the Romans can be defeated, he can return his full force to Persia. Khosrau takes this time to rebuild a bit.

644- Caliph Omar is assassinated by a Persian slave while leading prayer in Medina. He was stabbed six times, and the slave was immediately executed. He is succeeded by Uthman ibn Affan, but there is much ado in the Caliphate. Roman emperor Constantine III takes the opportunity to reconsolidate his forces. Later in the year, the Romans, with Persian aid, undertake a massive campaign that restores Syria to Roman rule.

645- The Roman Army recaptures Alexandria from Muslim rule.

646- A massive joint Roman/Persian offensive attacks the Muslims in Palestine. There is much death on both sides, and neither gains a clear advantage.

647- The Roman/Persian offensive into Palestine succeeds. Palestine is recaptured, although the Muslims have built a stronghold out of Jerusalem. Even after a long siege, the Muslims cannot be routed from the city.

648- Pope Theodore I excommunicates Paul II of Constantinople. Also, Jerusalem is recaptured from Arab hands.

649- The Arabs are completely pushed out of Egypt. Also, the Visigothic King Chindaswinth dies, and is succeeded by his son, Reccaswinth.

650- The Arabs are pushed back into Arabia. Khosrau, whose health begins to fail early in the year, decides not to press the conflict further. At least, not yet.

[MerryPrankster]

Tetsu,

Good TL thus far. However, have you made a note that many Monophysite Christians in the Middle East welcomed the Arabs b/c they put an end to the Byzantine persecutions? That little bit of Byzantine policy will have to be taken into account somehow.

[Xen]

Originally Posted by Matt Quinn

Tetsu,

Good TL thus far. However, have you made a note that many Monophysite Christians in the Middle East welcomed the Arabs b/c they put an end to the Byzantine persecutions? That little bit of Byzantine policy will have to be taken into account somehow.

That can be addressed later, as I suggested earlier there can be a schism between the Greek Orthodox Church and the Coptic Church. The Coptic's dominate North Africa, Syria, and Palestine. Perhaps they get support of Rome in the schism.

[Tetsu]

Originally Posted by Xen

That can be addressed later, as I suggested earlier there can be a schism between the Greek Orthodox Church and the Coptic Church. The Coptic's dominate North Africa, Syria, and Palestine. Perhaps they get support of Rome in the schism.

That's actually a very good idea; I'll probably include something to that affect soon. How would you recommend they go about doing this?

[chrispi]

...then I'd imagine that the Assassins would be a notorious Zoroastrian sect.