Turkey wins 1878

[tom]

Could Turkey have won the Russo-Turkish war? What if it had?

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

Originally Posted by tom

Could Turkey have won the Russo-Turkish war? What if it had?

I think perhaps once it began it would have been nearly impossible to win without help; one-on-one with Russia was not a good idea.

I am working on an extensive timeline about this issue, and will post it before long.

I think the best bet would have been early British intervention. The Ottomans were overwhelmed, but put up a stronger fight than expected; they were equipped as well as the Russians, but were just starting to undergo the reforms that would give them a formidable officer corps and organization by the end of the century. British aid could have plugged the gaps and allowed the Ottomans to resist the Russians.

An Ottoman victory (really, a stalemate) would have totally changed the world. The elimation of Ottoman rule in the Balkans would not have taken on the air of inevitability, and this would have prevented the ball rolling that led to WWI. Since the failure of the government to prevent the disaster is what led Abdul Hamid to dismiss Parliament and establish autocratic rule, it is possible that the Ottoman Empire could have evolved into a constitutional monarchy, which may not have prevented further territorial losses, but could have greatly stengthened the empire, both in substance and in its image amongst the Powers.

It was also the Treaty of Berlin that institutionalized the interference of the Powers in internal Ottoman affairs, and caused the deterioration of relations between the Ottoman government and one of its minorities, which was henceforth encouraged towards seperatism by Russia; I would presume no defeat in 1878 would preclude that. Additionally, the empire would have been strengthened by the lack of a huge war indemnity to Russia which severly hobbled the economy.

[wkwillis]

Let's see, the minorities that I know of that hated the Turks were the Greeks, Arabs, Kurds, Shiite Arabs, and Armenians. I think the Assyrians and the Turkomans appreciated the Turks for protecting them from the local majorities. So did the Druze and Bahai, come to think of it. The Maronite Christians cut some kind of deal with the French, and I don't know about the Yemeni Jews.

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

Originally Posted by wkwillis

Let's see, the minorities that I know of that hated the Turks were the Greeks, Arabs, Kurds, Shiite Arabs, and Armenians. I think the Assyrians and the Turkomans appreciated the Turks for protecting them from the local majorities. So did the Druze and Bahai, come to think of it. The Maronite Christians cut some kind of deal with the French, and I don't know about the Yemeni Jews.

The Armenians were an extremely priviledged group and an integral part of the Ottoman polity; it was only after the Treaty of Berlin that things went sour. The Kurds were very content under the Ottomans, and the British prevented a plebicite after WWI because they knew the Kurds would voe overwhelmingly to rgo with Turkey rather than become part of Iraq; Kurdish-Turkish conflict is very recent, not historical. It is often viewed as surprising how little conflict there was between the Ottomans and Greece - after independence, they only fought in 1897, the First Balkan War, and the aftermath of WWI. The Greek community in the Ottoman Empire was in good shape until the Greek invasion of Anatolia, and Greek Ottomans remianed loyal during WWI even though Greece was on the other side. But yes, Greek identity is partially formed as opposition to the Ottomans, as they had to build a nation in rebellion to the Ottomans.

The Shiite Arabs were unenthusiastic about a Sunni monarch, but there were no real problems for or from them.

Of the minorities in your second paragraph, all were protected by the Ottomans, especially the Jews, who were the most treasured and loyal minority in the empire.

Towards the end of the empire the government began to put up roadblocks for Protestant missionaries, because they were going after Muslim orphans and openly encouraging Christian minorities to rebel.

In general, though, you can't interchange the words "Turk" and "Ottoman". The Ottomans were a multi-ethnic ruling class; they didn't think of themselves as Turks, nor did Turks think of themselves as Ottomans.