D-Day plans are known 6 months in advance by Germanies leader Spear

[chrismarkcanada]

OK my what if is as follows:
What if Albert Spear became the leader of Germany in January 1943 after Hitler dies after chocking on a chicken bone. Spear happened to be the only one who was eating with him that night.

The plan to invade France is found out by a well placed Germany spy and luckily for Germany Spear 100% believes the accuracy of the spies report and has more than 6 months to prepare for the landings. The last part is that no nuclear bombs will be invented by anyone before 1950 because of an accident that killed all the leading scientist on the program in the US.

Basically everything else remands the same but Germany is doing much better in the East and has brought any Russian advance to a halt, well and I mean well east of Poland. Oh my last tidbit the ME262 has been in a full fighter role service since 1943 and now in January 1944 has over 800 in operation and they have basically decimated all bomber sorties by the west, new average life span of a bomber has gone from 25 missions to 3 missions. In one attack 500 B-24 tired to attack Berlin 420 did not return. What happens……………..

[Cockroach]

Either the Normandy beaches are fortrified... in which case the allies notice and change their plans.
Or more mobile forces are based in there area... in which case these additional forces get knocked about badly by allied Fighter-Bombers...

Also your suggestions are simply absurd...
Even if the chief scientists working on the A Bomb drop dead the ideas, plans, calculations etc. will still be avalible... so the delay maybe 6-18 months BUT certainly not 5 years.
The Me-262 may be in large scale service sooner but issues with the jet engines and their lack of reliability will prevent them being of that much use.

I also heavily doubt your suggestions related to decimation of the heavy bombers.

[chrismarkcanada]

Mr. Cockroach I am not asking if it is possible I am telling you the way it is. I asked a “what if”, yes it is impossible we all know that, I am asking you what happens if it did happen. I also stand by what I suggested tell me what happens don't tell me it can't happen I already know that.

[Burton K Wheeler]

Originally Posted by chrismarkcanada

Mr. Cockroach I am not asking if it is possible I am telling you the way it is. I asked a “what if”, yes it is impossible we all know that, I am asking you what happens if it did happen. I also stand by what I suggested tell me what happens don't tell me it can't happen I already know that.

What he was saying is that the scenario you pointed out is implausible based on the simple POD of Adolf Hitler dying early. Either you need to clarify how Hitler dying in the beginning of 1943 leave events the way you describe them eighteen months later, or you need to start discussion from the beginning. A better question might have gone more like this:

"Adolf Hitler chokes on a chicken bone in January of 1943. What happens next?"

[mattep74]

Originally Posted by chrismarkcanada

The plan to invade France is found out by a well placed Germany spy and luckily for Germany Spear 100% believes the accuracy of the spies report and has more than 6 months to prepare for the landings. The last part is that no nuclear bombs will be invented by anyone before 1950 because of an accident that killed all the leading scientist on the program in the US.

Basically everything else remands the same but Germany is doing much better in the East and has brought any Russian advance to a halt, well and I mean well east of Poland. Oh my last tidbit the ME262 has been in a full fighter role service since 1943 and now in January 1944 has over 800 in operation and they have basically decimated all bomber sorties by the west, new average life span of a bomber has gone from 25 missions to 3 missions. In one attack 500 B-24 tired to attack Berlin 420 did not return. What happens……………..

And you think that there isnt any other scientist in the US that can continue the work? A-bomb avalible in 46 instead of 45.

As for the bomberlosses. You dont think that the allies would try to escort the bombers? ME262 wasnt THAT much better than the Mustang. And you dont think the allies were working on jets? If many 262 arrived on the scene the allies would work harder to produce jets.

And when do the Germans start act better on the eastern front?

And with Hitler dead, why Speer? He wasnt a powerfigure. There would be a powerstruggle between Himler and Goering

[Adam]

Aww, take a lookie at that n00b. He doesn't realize that one way or another, the Allies are going to win BECAUSE they are going to swamp the Axis with vastly numerical and superior industrial output.

[Burton K Wheeler]

Originally Posted by Adam

Aww, take a lookie at that n00b. He doesn't realize that one way or another, the Allies are going to win BECAUSE they are going to swamp the Axis with vastly numerical and superior industrial output.

Could you please just respond civilly to the original post rather than attacking the poster?

[Adam]

Originally Posted by The Bald Imposter

Could you please just respond civilly to the original post rather than attacking the poster?

Sure. I must admit that I was rather distracted by writing my fic. Won't happen again, though.

EDIT: Um Baldie, is your net okay? Because I see your post repeated two more times.

[Ian the Admin]

Originally Posted by Adam

Aww, take a lookie at that n00b. He doesn't realize that one way or another, the Allies are going to win BECAUSE they are going to swamp the Axis with vastly numerical and superior industrial output.

Cut out the insults.

[wallwriter]

Of all the people that could be involved in a power-struggle for the Fuhrer's seat,Speer is one of the least likely to come out on top. If the Reich does survive after Adolph kicks the bucket, it might be possible for Speer to gain popular support in peacetime Reich. I could imagine him turning Germany into a developed, industrial power and which would give him the base for any ambitions to stand at the helm.

[Michael B]

Originally Posted by Cockroach

Either the Normandy beaches are fortrified... in which case the allies notice and change their plans.

The Allies had one of two options: land in Normandy or land in Calais. The Germans knew that and for a number of reasons guessed Calais. Even after Normandy a landing was expected in Calais and a reserve retained for meet it.

The location was determined by geography and not the ports for the invasion fleet (all ports from the Bristol Channel to the Thames required for Normandy). Thus a change in target would be practical propostion. Where the Allies would lose out would be the lost detailed planning that had been put into Normandy. I would thus expect a changed target to be more border line than Omaha Beach was.

[OperationGreen]

Originally Posted by The Bald Imposter

What he was saying is that the scenario you pointed out is implausible based on the simple POD of Adolf Hitler dying early. Either you need to clarify how Hitler dying in the beginning of 1943 leave events the way you describe them eighteen months later, or you need to start discussion from the beginning. A better question might have gone more like this:

"Adolf Hitler chokes on a chicken bone in January of 1943. What happens next?"

I quite agree there will be a few Nazis looking for the Führer position.
Goebbels,Goring,Himmler etc

[Wozza]

Originally Posted by chrismarkcanada

OK my what if is as follows:
What if Albert Spear became the leader of Germany in January 1943 after Hitler dies after chocking on a chicken bone. Spear happened to be the only one who was eating with him that night.

The plan to invade France is found out by a well placed Germany spy and luckily for Germany Spear 100% believes the accuracy of the spies report and has more than 6 months to prepare for the landings. The last part is that no nuclear bombs will be invented by anyone before 1950 because of an accident that killed all the leading scientist on the program in the US.

Basically everything else remands the same but Germany is doing much better in the East and has brought any Russian advance to a halt, well and I mean well east of Poland. Oh my last tidbit the ME262 has been in a full fighter role service since 1943 and now in January 1944 has over 800 in operation and they have basically decimated all bomber sorties by the west, new average life span of a bomber has gone from 25 missions to 3 missions. In one attack 500 B-24 tired to attack Berlin 420 did not return. What happens……………..

Ok, from the top. What you have proposed is called "naziwank." This is material that exaggerates Nazi strengths and ignores their military, economic and technological weakenesses. You have exacerbated the situation by making certain arbitrary changes also giving further advantage to Germany - such as non-existent spies.

The answer to your question "what happens" is that the Germans might win. The problem is that you have not asked a historically very interesting question - of course if the Germans had more advantages they would have a better chance of winning.

Far more interesting is to ask questions about German military, economic and technological decisions and the effects of various mistakes. Many of the scenarios proposed along these lines are also Naziwank but are generally worth consideration.

Regarding one of your actual points the Me262 was simply not ready to go into service. There is no magical way of getting weapons that are not ready into service, as experience with the Panther tank demonstrated. It is worth reflecting that for the first half of 1944 the Germans were actually focussing on Me109G production, which gives some idea of the real technical limits the Germans laboured under.

[Grimm Reaper]

I have to wonder just how detailed any plans for Overlord were in January of 1944 before deciding how useful they will be, not to mention the sheer implausibility of all or even a large proportion of the planning falling into anyone's hands.

A brief synopsis(Normandy is the target), yes! Dozens of filing cabinets, no.

One obvious allied response is to discredit what fell into German hands by launching Operation Dragoon earlier and on a larger scale. That's the invasion of southern France. In OTL 7 divisions(one Free French) landed there so up the number and see what happens to German dispositions.

[EmptyOne]

Originally Posted by chrismarkcanada

What if Albert Spear became the leader of Germany in January 1943 after Hitler dies after chocking on a chicken bone. Spear happened to be the only one who was eating with him that night.

Ummm ... Hitler was vegetarian. The only way he will choke on a chicken bone is if it is manually inserted into his throat. That maybe what you are implying, but I think the odds of a) Hitler dining alone with anyone and b) Speer murdering someone with a chicken bone, are the none side of 'Slim to None'.

Originally Posted by Wozza

Ok, from the top. <snip> Good concise explaination <snip>

Take a cookie Wozza, that was well done.

[Prunesquallor]

Speer didn't have a hope in hell of succeeding Hitler. He owed everything to his position as Hitler's favourite. He had no backing from the major power bases, the Army, the Party machinery, the security services. Had Hitler popped his clogs early, the obvious replacement was Goering. The most popular of the Nazi leaders, more so in some ways than Hitler (seen as much more "human"), widely experienced, an "old comrade." Who else is there? Goebbels, a club footed intellectual, distrusted, whose position has been on the slide since the outbreak of war. Bormann? Too faceless. Himmler? His lack of general appeal was equalled only by his lack of charisma. The rest are all too junior, obscure, or disqualified by one handicap or another.

And the idea that the death of a couple of scientists would greatly delay the Bomb... It was "steamboat time." By now the Bomb was a massive engineering project rather than anything involving fundamental research.

[esl]

Its been well studied that the OTL Me-262 had reliability problems , but to assume it could not have been ready earlier is rubbish. The entire jet was ready for mass production at the end of 1942, but the engine proved more complicated to developed and took until 1944 to straighten out the related problems.

If you study the history of the Jumo-004 engine development and the jet , its clear that like most German special weapons, it lost much development time when Goering cancelled all such programmes in Feb 1940. Since it took until Feb 1943 for the defeats at Stalingrad to reverse the effects of that decision, 3 years were lost in all those special weapons. In the Jumo engine case, the programme remained on the back burner employing a mere 30 technicians and thus when technological hurdles were encountered, this resulted in additional delays of six months before conferences where held and the problems were dealt with.

In each case it was one persons expert opinion that resolved the technical issue resuming development, but with additional 12 months delays. Further after Stalingrad the development team ballooned to 300 plus technicians allowing much great acceleration in development. In total had the programme remained on track as a 'strategic' programme it would have had the technicians and expert help that would have allowed the prototype development to be completed ~18 months earlier. This would lead to leading to mass production in Jan 1943 [6/1944=> 1/1943] and squadron service in spring 1943 , with 200 operational jet hours per day by Sept 1943 [ 3/45 => 9/43]. That means 200 jets could fly 1 hour sortie each day or 100 jets flying 2 hour sortie per day. USA generals conceded that at that time 300 operational jets would halt day time strategic bombing over Germany.

At that time the ATL engine production would top 1000 per month and 1500 per month by early-mid 1944. Combined with the progressive historical improvement of the Jumo 004B [6000 produced in 6 months to early 45=> winter 43/44] and Jumo 004C/D [Mid 45 on @ 1500 per month estimated => early 44]...the engine reliability would rise from 12 hours to 25 hours and eventually 50 hours allowing up to 1250 operational jet hours per day [based on twin engined Me-262/Ar-234] by mid 1944. That would allow 600 x 2 hour jet [twin Jumo engined] sortie per day. By the end of 1944 the engine production would top 2000 and reliability reach 50 hours. This would allow roughly 3333 operational twin engined jet hours per day or ~500 Me-262 sortie per day and ~650 four engined Ar-234C 2 hour night fighter sortie per day.

These two efforts combined could shut down day and night bombing over Germany...but changes would have to be implimented from early 1940 on.

[ranoncles]

Originally Posted by Prunesquallor

Speer didn't have a hope in hell of succeeding Hitler. He owed everything to his position as Hitler's favourite. He had no backing from the major power bases, the Army, the Party machinery, the security services. Had Hitler popped his clogs early, the obvious replacement was Goering. The most popular of the Nazi leaders, more so in some ways than Hitler (seen as much more "human"), widely experienced, an "old comrade." Who else is there? Goebbels, a club footed intellectual, distrusted, whose position has been on the slide since the outbreak of war. Bormann? Too faceless. Himmler? His lack of general appeal was equalled only by his lack of charisma. The rest are all too junior, obscure, or disqualified by one handicap or another.

Any power struggle in Nazi Germany would have to be between Goering and Himmler as all others were too weak to make a genuine stab at the throne. Himmler was probably the best political strategist (just look at what he managed to do with 28 SS guards) and he had the support of the ruthless and all-pervasive SS organization. But...nobody liked Himmler and everybody feared him. It is most likely that all the other Nazi bosses would gather around Goering for protection and with the knowledge that Goering could be much more easily "played" at a later date than Himmler. So Himmler would most likely be defeated in a power struggle by this army of Nazi midgets. Especially if they were supported by the army, a likely conclusion as the army resented the creation of the Waffen SS and its ever increasing enlargement.

[Wozza]

Originally Posted by Prunesquallor

Speer didn't have a hope in hell of succeeding Hitler. He owed everything to his position as Hitler's favourite. He had no backing from the major power bases, the Army, the Party machinery, the security services. Had Hitler popped his clogs early, the obvious replacement was Goering. The most popular of the Nazi leaders, more so in some ways than Hitler (seen as much more "human"), widely experienced, an "old comrade." Who else is there? Goebbels, a club footed intellectual, distrusted, whose position has been on the slide since the outbreak of war. Bormann? Too faceless. Himmler? His lack of general appeal was equalled only by his lack of charisma. The rest are all too junior, obscure, or disqualified by one handicap or another.
.

Adam Tooze in Wages of Destruction has quite an interesting description of the alliance between Himmler and Speer and how this was the motor of German internal politics in the 43-45 period. Together these two have a good chance of taking over.

[Melvin Loh]

Yeah, just incidentally the USAF's P51 Mustang escorts calaimed a fair few M262s over Germany during 1944-45, including 2 or 3 down to the Tuskegee airmen.