The Presidency of Thomas Marshall

POD October 2nd 1919: Woodrow Wilson's stroke that incapacitated him in OTL is much, much more serious than OTL and kills him instanteneously. After being deemed dead, Vice President Thomas Marshall is quickly found and inaugerated as the 29th President of the United States.

So What happens next? Thomas A. Bailey believed that had Wilson indeed died on October 2nd he would have become a martyr and his reputation would have equalled that of Abraham Lincoln. In addition his immediate popularity after his death, the removal of any third term challenge from Wilson, and the fact that Thomas Marshall was of little threat would lead to the US fully ratifying the Treaty of Versailles with little to no alterations. The US would have practically been shamed into entering the League of Nations.

Is this a plausible scenario? How would Thomas Marshall's 17 month presidency look like? Would he be able to rise to the challenge? Would he be able to do anything to alleviate the conditions that led to the massive Republican landslide in 1920?

Any other ideas?

Wasn't Marshall, to say so, not very competent?

Max Sinister said:

Wasn't Marshall, to say so, not very competent?

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I would say uninterested in power and authority rather than incompetant.

Yes. I really wonder how he ever became VPOTUS.

The US's presence in the LON could lead to a longer-lived version of this supra-national entity, as well as help bind the US to European politics...

I believe that Marshall supported Wilson over the League.

Maybe Wilson would be seen as a martyr and this would have changed things

Like a lot of vice presidential candidates of the era, Marshall was chosen more for his ability to balance the ticket rather than potential presidential ability (arguably, the first one chosen as a potential president in his own right would have been TR--or possibly Calvin Coolidge). That said, I could see Marshall as a caretaker president. I could see Wilson having something akin to martyr status (not quite that of Lincoln since he wasn't assassinated) sufficient to quell a lot of reservations/objections in the Senate--and at the same time, Marshall, with his outsider's status, probably would have been guided by Robert Lansing et. al. in dealing with the Senate. Short version IMO: the LofN treaty is passed with some reservations. Now, I don't think that would have mattered much with the rise of the various dictators in Europe, but it would have paved the way for the UN assuming that's not butterflied away somehow.

One side effect: both major candidates in 1920 would have to be pro-League, which suggests to me that an ambivalent/malleable type like Harding probably wouldn't have been the GOP nominee. It's not out of the question that 1920 might have been a second chance for Hughes, for example.

The Presidency of Thomas Marshall Part I

Hey everyone! I just got back from a 6 month trip and now finally have time to flesh out this concept!

I hope you enjoy it!

The Presidency of Thomas Marshall

A Fearless Leader TL​

Part I: The Death of a President

The year was 1919, the world was devastated by the most traumatic war it had ever seen and a subsequent flu epidemic that took the lives of millions. Yet even amidst the trauma hope remained, a new entity unlike anything the world had seen before had been birthed out of the wretched events of the Great War. It was the League of Nations, a unified world body whose primary intention was to ensure that such a war like the Great War before it never came to pass.

This League, this idea of a unified world council all originated from one man, the twenty-eighth president of the United States of America, a man named Woodrow Wilson. Yet the same man who had convinced the leaders of the greatest nations on earth to join such a council was failing to convince his own people. Now seemingly in vain he spent his last years running around the country trying to get his people, his nation, to join the body they fathered.

Yet this task seemed to be too mighty for Wilson to take on as his health began to take a turn for the worse. His final official speech would take place on September 25 1919 as he advocated for the United States to join the League of Nations in front of a crowd in Pueblo Colorado. Shortly after stepping off the stage Wilson suffered a minor stroke similar to the ones he had struggled with for the later part of his life ending his speaking tour designed to convince the United States to join the League of Nations. Unfortunately 7 days later the brilliant life of Woodrow Wilson came to an end as he suffered a much more serious stroke, killing him in his sleep.

Wilson’s death meant a number of things, the most important being that the presidency was left to his vice-president, the small and un-assuming Thomas Marshall. In hindsight the prospects of the success of the League of Nations never seemed dimmer, Thomas Marshall seemed to lack all ambition to make such a massive dream a reality. Yet this small ex-lawyer from Indiana was about to do something that would change the course of history.

Thomas Marshall 29th President of the United States of America

Inaugurated shortly after Wilson’s tragic death on October 2nd 1919 Thomas Marshall became the 29th President. He definitely had come a long way from running a small law firm in Indiana and from pieces of his memoirs we can ascertain that he certainly felt overwhelmed by his new position. He was so overwhelmed in fact that he made it clear that he was not planning to run in the upcoming election of 1920.

Marshall’s 17 month presidency would have been a quiet unassuming affair, with the nation slowly recovering from it’s most recent conflict had it not been for one thing. A singular piece of paper known as the Treaty of Versailles would consume Thomas Marshall’s presidency and become his legacy that he would leave the people whom he served. In fact it would be the only thing of note Marshall would accomplish during his time in office being too meek and mild mannered to address any other concerns facing the nation at the time.

A number of factors could be contributed to Thomas Marshall’s success in getting the United States Senate to sign the Treaty of Versailles and join the League of Nations. For one thing, Marshall lacked Wilson’s firm conviction on the articles of the treaty. Marshall had always believed that compromise was needed but never managed to convince Wilson. With Wilson gone Marshall began putting out feelers and began reviewing various compromises put forward by both the Republicans and the Democrats. Another factor that worked to Marshall’s advantage albeit quite inadvertently was the death of Woodrow Wilson. Wilson was now viewed as a martyr by the American people and indeed a number of members in the United States Senate. As a result of these factors and a few others the United States Senate agreed to sign the Treaty of Versailles by a vote of 50-38 on November 19th 1919.

The remainder of Marshall’s term would be a relatively quiet affair. Marshall would travel to London in 1920 to participate in the League of Nation’s first action of signing the Treaty of Versailles becoming the second President to travel out of the nation during his administration. Marshall would also oversee the complete withdrawal of US troops from Russia ending their ineffective intervention there. Yet nothing was done to undo the problems caused by the intervention, fear and mistrust that would have disastrous consequences later on. Marshall also failed to address any of the failures of his predecessor Woodrow Wilson leaving things pretty much as they were when he was inaugurated.

Yet Marshall had gone far beyond all the expectations lain on him by the members of the Democratic party who wanted him dumped from the ticket in 1916. He had succeeded where everyone thought he would fail and he left a lasting impact not only on his country but on the world as well. Yet the very act that defined him wearied him beyond measure prompting him not to seek re-election in 1920 and return home to Indiana where he settled down to write his memoirs until his untimely death in 1923 upon a visit to Washington D.C. Thomas Marshall left the world a vastly different place, not too bad for a small time lawyer from Indiana...

Nice start. Do you plan to continue?

Why yes I do...

Addendum to Part I

Entry Into A New World

With the entry of the United States into the League of Nations, the world was completely changed. No longer were the affairs of state something left up to individual nations and alliances, but for the first time the affairs of state were institutionalized in an effort to maintain order in a world traumatized by war. Yet the League had received a potentially decapitating blow early on with the death of Woodrow Wilson. Lacking leadership from the other 4 members of the League Council the world looked to America and the election of 1920 with anticipation of someone to lead them into this new age.

The Election of 1920
The Election of 1920 would prove to be a pivotal one in the history of the United States. By joining the League of Nations, the USA had unknowingly ripped itself from the protective cradle of isolationism it had built for itself. The United States was now a part of the world at large whether it liked it or not.

As a result the Republican party who had been for the most part against joining the league and quite isolationist in outlook were forced to adopt a more internationalist approach. To spearhead this new policy Charles Evan Hughes was convinced to run a second time for the presidency this time with the popular General Leonard Wood as his Vice President.

Against them the Democratic Party nominated William Gibbs McAdoo (Wilson’s son in law and former Treasury Secretary) with the controversial anti-communist Mitchell Palmer as his Vice President. However this ticket would be severely compromised by numerous failings, mostly by McAdoo’s inability to regain the votes of the Irish American and German American populaces who’s abstinence from the election led to the defeat of the Democrats in November.

Meanwhile Hughes and the GOP ran an amazing campaign pushing “A New America” where not only did America maintain it’s independence but asserted it’s dominant position in the world. This coupled with Hughes’ laisses-faire economic policies and his general positive message contrasted the overall negative message of the Democrats and allowed Hughes to win a solid victory over McAdoo*.

*Not nearly as big a landslide as OTL but signifigant nonetheless.

Part II

Part II: The Birth of a New World

The early 1920’s would see the League of Nations begin to assert itself in international affairs. The world would emerge from the 1920’s a completely different place. Not only did the effectiveness of the League of Nations impress it’s member states it also affirmed the hopes of many that with this new body such a war as that which occurred in the years 1914-1918 would never occur again.

Bolshevik Hordes
As the Russian civil war drew to a close the League of Nations was faced with what would be come it’s first failure. Not a failure of commission, but rather a failure of omission. As the war weary member states, many still recovering from WWI failed to intervene in the Polish-Bolshevik war they lost a great opportunity to end the oppressive communist regime taking hold in Russia. Little did they know that said decision would cost them severely in the long run.

Ireland
The first major intervention of the League was in the bloody Anglo-Irish insurgency. President Hughes, eager to gain the vote of the Irish Americans immediately proposed that the League look into the situation in Ireland. A reluctant Lloyd George agreed and in early 1921 a ceasefire was signed and negotiations began in earnest resulting in the Anglo Irish Treaty of Geneva. Said treaty granted Southern Ireland complete independence from Britain and gave the northern counties the ability to choose whether to join the new Irish Republic, form their own dominion, or remain part of the British Empire.

The plebiscite in Northern Ireland, policed by troops from the United States and France, resulted in the creation of the Dominion of North Ireland as the “Dominion Lobbyists” successfully out-campaigned both the Pro Irish and Pro British Lobbyists. Following the signing of the Anglo Irish treaty limited violence continued to occur across the Emerald Isle. However prompt action by both Irish Republican Army forces under Michael Collins and British troops operating under the authority of the Dominion of Northern Ireland brought an end to the Anti-treaty factions and their reign of terror over the Emerald Isle. It had taken over 400 years but the Irish were finally free from English oppression.

Small Successes
Besides the landmark Treaty of Geneva, the League also managed to prevent a number of smaller disputes from exploding into potentially frightening international incidents. Crises involving the Aland Islands and Albania were resolved with only minor complaints and the festering issue of Upper Silesia was finally resolved by a plebiscite. A potentially disastrous conflict between Poland and Lithuania analogous to the Polish Bolshevik war over the city of Wilno / Vilinus was mediated by a plebiscite in the Wilno area giving the land to Poland in exchange for the League giving the port of Memel and the area surrounding it to Lithuania.

The Ruhr Incident
Having averted a number of crises across the globe the next major threat to the League of Nations came from within. Early 1923 saw the fledgling German republic fail to pay it’s harsh yearly reparations payments. As a result both Belgium and France moved to occupy the vital Ruhr industrial region in clear violation of League principles. War seemed inevitable as the League of Nations split between those supporting Germany and those supporting France. However the sheer diplomatic, industrial, and military might of the United States tipped the scales forcing France and Belgium to withdraw from the Ruhr. Following “The Ruhr Incident” President Hughes and others began to focus on helping Germany recover from the war. A new coalition government was formed under Gustav Stresseman which focused on improving the economy. American aid was crucial in the survival of the Stresseman coalition and despite a brief hiccup early on (the notorious “Beer Hall Putch”) the Stresseman coalition managed to govern Germany quite well for the majority of the 1920’s.

The Corfu Crisis
The League’s next big test appeared as the Italians invaded the Greek Island of Corfu. Using the pretext of the murder of 4 Italian officers, Italian president Benito Mussolini ordered the strategically important island of Corfu bombarded and occupied. In response to this King Alexander of Greece* threatened to declare war and issued a call for mobilization. The world held it’s collective breath as the fledgling Greek Navy sailed towards Corfu set on confrontation with the Italian invaders. Once again however, the League intervened with both President Hughes of the United States and Prime Minister Baldwin of the United Kingdom threatening to side with the Greeks over the incident. However Mussolini refused to budge on the issue hoping to call the bluff of the League members.

Unfortunately for Mussolini, his confidence was not shared by his fellow government ministers. Within days the majority of his party had turned on him and the leader of the so called “fascist movement” found himself being dismissed by King Victor Immanuelle III who promptly agreed to the League’s demands and withdrew from the island and thereby prevented a larger international incident from occurring.

The Anatolian Crisis
Following a near war involving Corfu the League was soon forced to turn it’s attention to Greek occupied Anatolia and the Proto war there. Though King Alexander of Greece had yet to try and expand Greek lands in Anatolia a vicious undeclared war was being waged in the Greek administered territories. In an effort to deal with the festering issue of Anatolia the League stepped in. A commission was formed and before long a treaty was written up. Greece gained the entirety of the Aegean islands while having to withdraw from Smyrna. Both sides were also required to exchange nationals resulting in a massive exodus for both the Turkish and Greek peoples resulting in a great deal of animosity for both.

Washington Naval Treaty (1923)
1923 saw the major members of the League sign the Washington Naval treaty limiting the burgeoning naval construction and ending a naval arms race occurring between the United States and Great Britain. Tonnage limits were set on all nations and before long Naval construction was being tailored to work within said limits.

Political Ramifications
In the United States the years 1920 to 1924 marked their coming of age in a new world. The first term of Charles Hughes was deemed extremely successful as the economy soared and America began to put it’s confidence in the League of Nations. The only real change that would occur in 1924 would be the replacement of Vice-President Leonard Wood due to health reasons. Favored son Calvin Coolidge was selected to replace Wood in the hopes of keeping the remaining isolationists in the fold. The gambit paid off as the GOP won the election of 1924 quite handily defeating William McAdoo yet again and securing both houses.

In the United Kingdom Stanley Baldwin’s Conservatives continued to dominate politics forming a coalition with the dying Liberal party and capitalizing on the success of the League of Nations. Meanwhile Lloyd George was relegated to a backseat role as the LoN’s intervention in Ireland resulted in his defeat and subsequent formation of the Conservative-Liberal coalition.

Following the Ruhr incident politics in France began to take more of a right wing turn. However before long the German reparations started to flow once again as the Mark stabilized and the American aid to the nation began to pay off.

In Italy following the dismissal of Benito Mussolini a shaky coalition government had been formed and order barely upheld. Yet before long the beleaguered nation once again resorted to autocracy with the military taking a more active role in the politics of the nation. Victor Immanuelle III soon found himself the Head of State of a quasi-fascist military junta. Yet though Italy did return to a fascist like government it’s commitment to the League of Nations remained resolute.

Conclusion
Overall the years 1920-1924 were crucial in the history of the League of Nations. During these 4 years the League intervened in numerous conflicts and prevented conflict from springing up in the aftermath of Europe. America finally entered the world stage and the American people were slowly brought out of the isolationism they had mired themselves in prior to the Great War.

This TL could use some maps.

Fearless Leader

Interesting but I think you vastly over-estimate the willingness of the US to get involved in world affairs. Also some questions:

In Ireland, presuming the extremists still rise to power in Ireland will you see League intervention when they attack the north? [Working on the basis that an independent north is likely to look far more vulnerable than a Ulster united with Britain]. What are the borders of Ulster in this scenario and have there been major population movements as historically or in the Greco-Turkish conflict?

In the Greco-Turkish war would Greece give up so much if they haven't been defeated? OTL they split their forces while a change of leadership also lost them support, then their advanced deep into Anatolia and were defeated. Here they are largely holding lands historically related to Greece and with a sizeable Greek population. I could see an agreement that leaves them holding a good proportion of the Aegean coast but can't really see them giving up those areas without a fight.

One thing I like about this TL. With a delay in the Washington Treaty, coupled with a more assertive US, its likely that the G3 ships are far enough advanced that they will be completed. Larger navies for all the big 3 navies but the RN is actually going to have a much better relative position for the near future at least.

The Liberals are unlikely to be in alliance with the Conservatives as the two groups were on opposite sides on the big issue at the time of whether to maintain free trade or not. In this, while basically a liberal, I would side with the Tories [spit, spit, that's a foul taste in the mouth]. In the highly protectionist world of the time free trade was too much of a burden for a weakened Britain. Historically LG's support of the Greeks over the Constantinople crisis led to his overthrow by the Tories and after that the liberals were divided internally but both supported Labour because of their initial commitment to free trade. In this scenario the split would probably come over the Irish Treaty, especially as the Conservatives, with their strong links to the Unionists, would be bitterly hostile to the treaty and what they would see as the concessions to the extremists in Ireland.

Steve

Fearless Leader said:

Hey everyone! I just got back from a 6 month trip and now finally have time to flesh out this concept!

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This was posted 4 months ago. Huh?

This reminds me of a Challenge I set a few days ago asking for the most outrageous LON-wank they could conceive. The thread didn't get to much of a response then, so I'm glad to see this.

Not to say this TL is outrageous, however I doubt how willing the USA would be to become this interventionalist, or how willing nations like Britain and France would be to let them. Especially in the idea that "the world looked to America and the election of 1920 with anticipation of someone to lead them into this new age", the days of unquestioned American Hegemony are not here yet, its more likely, IMHO, that some sort of united Franco-British voice would emerge to guide the LON until a suitably likeable POTUS comes onto the international scene.

Also, I seem to be sensing some forshadowing for a WWII, it'd be interesting to see how that turns out, and whether the LON will survive it.

Hey guys, thanks for all your comments!

Wendell: No real major border changes thus far so thus no maps

stevep: Thanks a lot for all your imput. You're right about me overestimating the US's willingness to intervene in international affairs, I just thought I'd put it out there and see what came back. As for the Anglo-Irish and Greco-Turkish situations I wondered why the League never intervened in said situations and tried my best to extrapolate a likely response. Keep in mind that in the later King Alexander never died from a monkey bite (pretty random IMO). Any further thoughts you have on those two issues would be welcome aswell as British or French political rammifications with the US being in the League of Nations.

Nek: I actually posted this concept during my trip but I was too busy to do a TL like I wanted to. Now my trip is over and voila I have time to do a TL!

ninebucks: Thanks for your comments I too think the LoN is neglected by AH and should be explored more thoroughly.

Again any further comments would be welcome! Nothing in this TL is set in stone! I'm totally willing to learn and be taught!

I see three problems thus far, two of them potentially fatal to your timeline:

* Treaties require a two-thirds majority of the US Senate to be ratified, not a simple majority. Therefore, the 50-38 vote you cite would still defeat ratification.

* Hughes would not have been the 1920 GOP nominee because of a very recent tragedy: he lost his daughter to tuberculosis, and declined to run even at the behest of such notables as Henry Cabot Lodge. (Had his daughter not died, however...)

* It's difficult to imagine Leonard Wood as settling for the second spot on the ticket. Appointment to head the War Department, I could buy, but not the vice-presidency. A more likely vice-presidential candidate would be Frank Lowden or Irvine Lenroot.

Interesting scenario...

1940LaSalle said:

I see three problems thus far, two of them potentially fatal to your timeline:

* Treaties require a two-thirds majority of the US Senate to be ratified, not a simple majority. Therefore, the 50-38 vote you cite would still defeat ratification.

* Hughes would not have been the 1920 GOP nominee because of a very recent tragedy: he lost his daughter to tuberculosis, and declined to run even at the behest of such notables as Henry Cabot Lodge. (Had his daughter not died, however...)

* It's difficult to imagine Leonard Wood as settling for the second spot on the ticket. Appointment to head the War Department, I could buy, but not the vice-presidency. A more likely vice-presidential candidate would be Frank Lowden or Irvine Lenroot.

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Apt points all. Honestly, I had not taken into account the Senate numbers given. Lenroot strikes me as a good choice for VP ITTL.

Wendell said:

Apt points all. Honestly, I had not taken into account the Senate numbers given. Lenroot strikes me as a good choice for VP ITTL.

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Thanks, Wendell. By the way, if you or anyone else has a chance, I'd recommend reading "1920: the year of six presidents" (OK, that title may not be dead on target but it's close). It's a recent publication about the 1920 election, and the events leading up to it. That's where I got the item about Hughes. It has a ton of possible PODs, all of which could have major impacts on the 20th and 21st centuries.